The Pirates Trade; or Why Tom Gorzelanny Better Be Awesome
Yesterday, the Chicago Cubs traded pitchers Kevin Hart and Jose
Ascanio, as well as minor league infielder Josh Harrison to the
Pirates for pitchers John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny. And though the
rumors about Grabow had swirled for weeks, thus leaving the indelible
impression on this trade that it was all about him (i.e., another
lefty for the pen), the trade is perhaps more notable for the
inclusion of his fellow lefty.
Here’s the thing about getting Grabow.
You have to believe the ardent desire to get Grabow was at least as
much about a lack of faith in Carlos Marmol and Aaron Heilman to
reliably set up Kevin Gregg as it was about getting another lefty in
the pen. After all, lefties have hit Grabow much harder this year than
have righties: righties are hitting just .234 against Grabow, whereas
lefties are hitting a much better .275 with an eye-popping .362 OBP.
And when viewed in that light, yes, the addition of Grabow makes more
sense and takes on another level of value beyond being merely “another
lefty.” But he’s a rental, plain and simple. Like such legends as
Steve Trachsel and Matt Lawton before him, Grabow is unlikely to be
the difference between a Cubs playoff run – or better still, a deep
playoff run – and crapping out in September.
So with that in mind, how much better are the Cubs really today, with
Grabow in the pen, than they were yesterday? Kevin Hart was sporting a
2.60 ERA for the big team, and Jose Ascanio had already showed
electric stuff out of the Cubs’ pen. Josh Harrison, 22 and in A ball,
is young, but he’s quite a hitter (for average, at least – not so much
on the power thing).
That’s why Tom Gorzelanny is the key part of this deal.
Before Ted Lilly’s injury, no one seriously contemplated that the Cubs
would go after a starting pitcher, but once he went down, we all had a
moment of pause. Yes, Lilly is supposed to be back in a few weeks.
Yes, the injuries are supposed to be minor. But you’re talking about a
shoulder AND knee surgery. If you didn’t at least secretly hope the
Cubs went out and got another starting pitcher, you weren’t paying
attention.
Kevin Hart, though his previous starting efforts were laudible, was
not the answer to Lilly’s absence.
Here I admittedly use a little doublespeak – on the one hand, I posit
that Grabow is not much of an upgrade over the better of Kevin Hart
and Jose Ascanio, but on the other, I suggest that Kevin Hart was not
an acceptable substitute for Ted Lilly. Kevin Hart’s excellent four
starts this year for the Cubs were pulled off, as one friend said,
with smoke and mirrors. First, he managed just 5.5 innings per start.
Second, in those 22 innings, he gave up 20 hits and 13 walks, striking
out just 12. Luck was certainly a factor in his relative success.
And although he’d shown a flicker of hope as a Major League level
middle reliever, there was little reason to believe he could continue
as a great or even good Major League level starter without a dramatic
improvement in his approach and his stuff.
Tom Gorzelanny, on the other hand, has already demonstrated over the
course of multiple years that he can definitely be a good or even
great Major League level starter. He’s lost it a bit, there’s
not doubt about that. And that regard, if we are equating Hart and
Gorzelanny, Hart is the safer play. Lower upside, but also lower
downside. Gorzelanny is a much more attractive player overall because
of that possibility that he could get “it” back.
That is not to say, however, that I think this was a great trade. I
appreciate that, all other things equal, I would probably condone
trading Ascanio and Harrison for Grabow, and then trading Hart for
Gorzelanny. But all other things aren’t equal.
The Chicago Cubs needed another starting pitcher. And not only is the
one that they acquired a very high risk proposition, they dealt
perhaps the next most reliable option.
So this trade, like it’s unlikely centerpiece, is a high risk / high
reward proposition. If Gorzelanny fills in admirably in Ted Lilly’s
absence and John Grabow continues to do what he’s done this year, all
will be well, and no matter the season outcome, the trade was a good
one. But just as I will bestow praise for a high risk move that pays
off, I will criticize one that does not. If Gorzelanny continues to
pull his version of the Rich Hill, and if Ted Lilly doesn’t come back
asap with a magically healed shoulder and knee, leaving the Cubs
scrambling to find a rotation fill-in, the trade was a bad one. And
that’s irrespective of what John Grabow does.
Thus, this trade is all on Tom Gorzelanny. And he better be awesome.
Formerly Obsessive Peavywatch: Jake Peavy Traded to Chicago White Sox
OMG Jake Peavy!
OMG Chicago!
OMG… meh. It’s the White Sox, and the Cubs haven’t really even been remotely interested in half a year.
The White Sox have acquired 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy from San Diego in exchange for pitchers Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Adam Russell and Dexter Carter.
Peavy, 28, is 6-6 with a 3.97 ERA in 13 starts with the Padres in 2009. The Right-hander has been on the disabled list since June 13 with a strained tendon in his right ankle.
Peavy’s contract breaks down like this: He’ll make $11 million this year, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011, $17 million in 2012, and there’s a $22 million team option for 2013. Hardball.
The haul is a so-so one for Peavy, perhaps unsurprising given his health concerns and gigantic contract. Thankfully the Cubs never pulled the trigger.
Series Preview: Cubs v. Marlins, July 31 – August 2, 2009
The Chicago Cubs head on down to Florida to take on the Marlins for a three-game set. South Florida in August is quite warm. Enjoy that, boys.
So, the series preview: the idea is to hook you up with what you need to know about every series this year. That way you can look like a genius, hardcore fan in front of all your friends, with minimum effort. Oh, and there will be pictures of hot chicks, too.
Read the full Marlins preview, complete with hot chicks, after the jump
Cubs Will Keep Exploring Deals Up to Today’s Deadline
Though the Chicago Cubs have likely already made the big deal they’ll make before this year’s non-waiver trade deadline – acquiring pitchers John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny from the Pittsburgh Pirates – that doesn’t mean they’re going to stop trying to improve the club.
GM Jim Hendry said today there’s no reason not to work up to tomorrow’s 3 p.m. deadline [4 p.m. Eastern] to make trades.
…
As far as another trade, Hendry says there’s nothing hot right now.
“You always keep your options open until the clock strikes the end of it,” Jim said. “I don’t have anything else where I’m going to call you tonight and say, ‘Hey, we got to meet again,’ because I don’t think anything will happen tonight. I hope something pops up between now and 3 (tomorrow). I wouldn’t count on it. We certainly don’t shut the door and say it’s done. I don’t have anything going like this.” DailyHerald.com Blogs.
Outside of adding a lefty outfield bench bat, it’s hard to see a realistic move that remains for the Cubs.
God’s Wrathwatch: Geovany Soto Starting Rehab Assignment
Geovany Soto has been out for a long time with an oblique strain, but he’s finally ready to starting a minor league rehab stint, and then return to the Cubs next week.
Geovany Soto, who has been on the disabled list since July 7 because of a left oblique strain, will begin a minor-league rehabilitation assignment this weekend and could return to the Cubs by Wednesday, general manager Jim Hendry said.
”Optimistically, we hope he’s back in the lineup no later than Colorado,” Hendry said of a series that opens against the Rockies next Friday in Denver. ”Maybe a chance a little before that.”
via Cubs may see Soto back by Wednesday :: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES :: Cubs.
The Cubs have played well in Soto’s absence – 13 and 7 – but it will obviously help the club to have Soto back. As things stand, the Cubs cannot appropriately use Jake Fox off the bench because he has to stand ready as the back-up catcher. Which, of course, he never actually gets to do – Koyie Hill has started 20 games in a row.
Sam Fuld to Chicago, Mitch Atkins to Iowa, Other Roster Moves
The Chicago Cubs sent pitcher Mitch Atkins back to AAA Iowa yesterday, and are expected to recall outfielder Sam Fuld later today before the game against the Florida Marlins.
The Cubs also recalled reliever Jeff Stevens yesterday, when Reed Johnson was placed on the disabled list. John Grabow was added to the 25-man roster to replace the guy for whom he was traded, Kevin Hart. Tom Gorzelanny joins Iowa, but is expected to be with the big team by Tuesday, when he’s likely to start.
Enhanced Box Score: Astros 3, Cubs 12 – July 30, 2009
The bats keep co0king, and the Cubs keep winning. Very divergent and yet similar outcomes for the two starting pitchers…
Cubs Acquire Grabow, Gorzelanny From Pirates
Today, the Chicago Cubs sent pitchers Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio, as
well as minor league infielder Josh Harrison to the Pirates for lefty
reliever John Grabow and lefty sometimes starter, sometimes reliever,
sometimes minor leaguer Tom Gorzelanny. Grabow joins Sean Marshall as
the lefties in the pen (though Grabow has been better at getting
righties out this year, but whatever), and Gorzelanny may actually get
a shot in the rotation while Ted Lilly is out. Those starts were
expected to go to Kevin Hart.
Substantive analysis of the trade coming soon. Our humble site was the
target of a non-malicious, but highly annoying hacker attack, which is
affecting posting. Apologies.
