7 responses to “The Pirates Trade; or Why Tom Gorzelanny Better Be Awesome”

  1. BT

    Dude. The starter they MAY need is Marshall. If Lilly is bad, and Gorzelanny chokes the bit, they will simply throw Marshall into the rotation. And the reason they can throw Marshall into the rotation is…..John Grabow.

    All things are equal.

    1. Ace

      Marshall will take a week plus to get stretched out. By the time Gorzelanny fails, if he does, that’s a week right there. Add another, and you’re into the zone where Lilly is coming back anyway. For this trade to have been worthwhile, Gorzelanny has to plug that gap.

      And you missed the point on Grabow (or I failed to articulate it): he’s not just another lefty in the pen that can replace Marshall. Grabow isn’t better against lefties. That’s the key. He’s just another late inning reliever.

      1. BT

        Ace, you are overthinking it. He’s a lefty to bring in against lefties. even if he’s not that good of a lefty. If they guy he is brought in to face isn’t a stud, that guy will be lifted for a righty. So he will face a right handed batter anyway. If he IS a stud, in all likelyhood he will be worse against lefties than righties, so it’s still a bonus.

        It’s a rare manager that will leave a lefty in against a left handed pitcher, just because that pitcher is marginally better against righties than he is against lefties. Grabow is a chess piece, even if the numbers are a bit unusual for his splits.

        1. Ace

          BT, you are underthinking it. :)

          Look at how Grabow was used yesterday – there was no situational element to it. He’s just a late-inning, close game reliever. As he should be. If Lou starts using him as a LOOGY type, I will be PISSED.

          1. BT

            He was used that way because we still have Marshall in the pen. If that were to change, he will be used in high leverage situations requiring a lefty.

            I’m telling you dude, the BA vs righties and lefties matters alot for starters, as a team can load up the lineup with one side or the other. It’s not as pronounced for guys like grabow, because he is most likely not going to face that many lefties. It’s all about forcing matchups. But if you really want to dig into it, look more closely at his numbers.

            He’s faced about twice as many Rh as Lhs. In that time,

            -His strikeouts per better is MUCH better against lefties
            -his K/bb is much better against lefties.
            -his OOB is better against lefties
            -his OSLG is (very slightly) better against lefties.
            -his bb per batter is much better against lefties.

            His home runs allowed are about even, and the ONLY spot where he really suffers, is his opponents BA against him, which is worse against lefties. However, I’d argue that’s a bit of a fluke as his BABIP is a comically high .350 against lefties (as opposed to .290 vs Righties).

            If you regress his babip against righties to the mean, he really has been better against lefties.

            In short, don’t sweat it.

            1. Ace

              Maybe I am overstating it – but weren’t there better LOOGY options available? The answer, of course, is yes. So why Grabow? There are only two reasons, and they’re addressed in the post: (1) he’ll be used as a late-inning reliever, generally, and (2) it allowed the Cubs to get a starting pitcher in the same deal.

              If the Cubs were looking to acquire a LOOGY, they could have done a lot better, is all I’m saying. Arthur Rhodes, for example, was available for rental.

  2. nuca playa

    gorzelany is nothing more than the pittsburgh pirates version of rich hill….i dont understand this trade at all, the cubs are in a pennant race, and every game is in important, and you never know how reliable he is gonna be…with that being said, if he loses the 2 starts they give him, and the cubs miss the playoffs by a game, i will be angry…and i dont think its fair for you to call 4 starts, all servicable, luck..granted hart walked alot of guys in his first 2 starts, but not after that…for a guy to come from our bullpen, not be stretched out long enough to throw 120 pitches, and give us the effort he did, i will take it every time…Luck, i assure you, had nothing to do with it…if it did, then soriano’s hot streak is all luck, because if you look at his numbers, he strikes out alot and doesnt walk or get on a base, meaning his hot streak is all luck…over analayze pointless numbers more…wins losses and era, thats all that should matter..its not how you get it done, its IF you get it done, and i hope gorzelany does the job, i mean its not like were talking about out 12 million dollar a year ace…we were talking about a fill in rotation guy untill lilly gets back…