BREAKING: Bummer Dude, Cubs Sign Marlon Byrd
The Chicago Cubs are set to sign Marlon Byrd to a three-year, $15 million contract today. He’ll start in center field next year, and then he’ll make us miserable for two additional years. I kid. I hope.
We’ll have an evaluation of the deal tomorrow after the final details come out. It will be a wonderful way to ring in the new year, I can assure you of that. If you’re itching for a preview on my thoughts, here’s what I had to say about the prospect of signing Byrd a few weeks ago.
Also, the over/under on other publications that reference “the Byrd is the word” when reporting this signing: 4.
UPDATE: According to this article, the deal is $3 million for 2010, $5.5 million for 2011, and $6.5 million for 2012. That’s about as backloaded as a deal gets.
How Do You Solve a Rumor ’bout Zambrano?
Is he or isn’t he?
That’s what the Cublogoverse is trying to figure out today about Chicago Cubs’ ace (yes, he is an ace) Carlos Zambrano’s availability. A few days ago, SI’s Jon Heyman started a firestorm when he tweeted that Zambrano was “eminently available.” We questioned his use of the word “eminently” there, and sure enough, one day later he recanted, calling Zambrano trade rumors a “time waster,” and describing a Mets-Cubs Zambrano trade as a “pipe dream.”
But then yesterday, the New York Post ran a story stating that “[t]wo AL officials say the Cubs are definitely dangling Carlos Zambrano.” The article went on to note, however, that Zambrano is comfortable where he is, and would be unlikely to waive his no trade clause.
So with the rumors swirling, the media went straight to the source: Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry. Surely Hendry could squash this with a simple statement. Carlos is our guy. We love him. We want to keep him. We would never trade him! Easy, right?
But curiously, Hendry responded like this: “He’s got full no-trade rights, which he negotiated into his contract. I fully expect him to come back in 2010 and pitch like the old ‘Big Z.’”
What the hell? That sounds like the response you’d give when asked about a guy that everyone knows you don’t want on your club. Are you considering trading Carlos Zambrano? He’s got a no-trade clause, which he wanted in his contract. What kind of a response is that? That doesn’t answer the part of the rumor that has people interested in the first place: would the Cubs trade Carlos Zambrano if they could?
In fact, it sounds more like the Cubs would like to trade Zambrano, but are hamstrung by his no-trade clause. Is that really the message you want to send, particularly if you’re expecting to keep Zambrano? Yikes. Hopefully, if Zambrano is staying, these rumors die down, because this has the potential to percolate into something ugly.
Fiddle Sticks: Cardinals Close to Re-Signing Matt Holliday
With Mark DeRosa leaving and Joel Pineiro set to leave, the St. Louis Cardinals were poised to be significantly worse (on paper) in 2010 than they were at the close of the 2009 season.
Oh, yeah, but there was that Matt Holliday guy.
The Cardinals have had a growing sense of optimism in recent weeks that they would be able to re-sign the left fielder and former batting champion, willing to let the market move around them while they focused on Holliday. Sources with knowledge of the negotiations said progress is “strong” and a resolution could come as early as next week.
Holliday’s representatives and Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak confirmed ongoing talks.
“I’m still hopeful,” Mozeliak wrote in a text message. “But there is still work to be done.”
The Cardinals have led the pursuit of Holliday, first making a formal offer three weeks ago to his agent, Scott Boras. The exact details of the Cardinals’ current offer are not publicly known. Sources indicated the sides have discussed several structures, including a five-year guaranteed deal and an eight-year framework.
The average annual salary would be higher in the shorter deal. The longer deal’s total worth, however, would surpass the largest contract ever finalized by the Cardinals — the $100-million extension signed by Albert Pujols in 2004.
Boras has been seeking an eight-year contract with an average salary that compares with the $18-million salaries Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee currently make and exceeds the $16.5-million salary Jason Bay reportedly just signed with the Mets. STLtoday.com.
Unless a big deal for Holliday puts a cramp in the Cardinals’ ability to lock up Albert Pujols long-term following 2011, this is nothing but bad news for Cubs fans. As we learned during the Rolen/Edmonds/Pujols years, when the Cardinals pack a couple or a few big-time hitters together in the lineup, they can score a ton of runs regardless of the crap surrounding them.
The 2010 Chicago Cubs Top 20 Prospects
Ah, it’s that time of year: prospect list mania! Minor league guru John Sickels has offered his top 20 list of Chicago Cubs prospects, which we’ll reproduce here. But we encourage you to visit the link if you want to see the write-up on each of the players. Enjoy.
1) Starlin Castro, SS, Grade B+.
2) Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B+.
3) Brett Jackson, OF, Grade B.
4) Jay Jackson, RHP, Grade B.
5) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Grade B.
6) Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Grade B.
7) Chris Carpenter, RHP, Grade B-.
Kyler “Killer” Burke, OF, Grade B- (Sickels’ quote, not mine).
9) Ryan Flaherty, INF, Grade B-.
10) D.J. LeMahieu, INF, Grade C+.
11) Brooks Raley, LHP, Grade C+.
12) Logan Watkins, 2B, Grade C+.
13) Esmailin Caridad, RHP, Grade C+.
14) Blake Parker, RHP, Grade C+.
15) John Gaub, LHP, Grade C+.
16) Matt Spencer, OF-1B, Grade C+.
17) Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Grade C+.
18) Casey Coleman, RHP, Grade C+.
19) Tyler Colvin, OF, Grade C.
20) Jeff Beliveau, LHP, Grade C.
Others that were close: James Adduci, OF; Jeff Antigua, LHP; Chris Archer, RHP; Darwin Barney, SS; Justin Bristow, RHP; David Cales, RHP; Welington Castillo, C; Rafael Dolis, RHP; Brandon Guyer, OF; Chris Huseby, RHP; Austin Kirk, LHP; Junior Lake, SS: Trey McNutt, RHP; Mike Parisi, RHP; Chris Rusin, LHP; James Russell, LHP; Ryan Searle, RHP; Tony Thomas, 2B.
No huge surprises on the list at the top, as the top six are pretty much considered the top six by everyone who discusses the matter.
How About Angel Pagan Coming Back to the Cubs?
When the New York Mets signed Jason Bay on Tuesday, they conceivably shrunk the outfield market for the Chicago Cubs (by making Jacoby Ellsbury slightly less likely to be traded). But they may have simultaneously increased the market – namely, by overloading their own outfield. Jason Bay is expected to play left field, Carlos Beltran will play center, and Jeff Francoeur will play right.
But the Mets have a fourth guy who may have proved himself a capable starter last year: Angel Pagan.
Thrust into regular duty by injury and ineffectiveness, Pagan tore things up in 2009: in the second half of the season, when he became a regular, he played 71 games, and put up a .306 / .343 / .503 line. Pagan, a 27 year old switch hitter, also played solid defense all over the outfield, but mostly in center.
So why couldn’t he play center field for the Cubs next year?
The obvious, and primary answer is: well, maybe the Mets won’t want to trade him. And maybe they won’t – after all, Pagan is poised to be the best fourth outfielder in all of baseball, and is an excellent insurance policy should one of their starters go down. Further, he’s going to be hugely inexpensive: he made just $575k last year, his first arbitration year. That means he will be cheap for the next two years.
But those are all also reasons the Cubs should be pushing hard to acquire him. A trade could take the form of a simple Cubs-prospects-for-Pagan type, but maybe the Cubs could get a little more creative. The Mets are looking to dump some salary – but the Cubs have little salary room to spare. However, if the Cubs could use that little salary room to fill two holes at once – say, with a center fielder and a pitcher – they’d gladly do it, no? The Mets are looking to move Oliver Perez and his two years and $24 million left on his deal, and maybe the Cubs can take on some of that salary, with the real prize being Pagan.
Even better, the Mets are looking to move second baseman Luis Castillo, who stands to make $6 million in 2010 and 2011. How much improved would the Cubs lineup look with Castillo at second and Pagan manning center?
Yes, I know it is always frustrating (even though the frustration is completely irrational) to try and get back a guy that your team gave up for basically nothing. The Cubs traded Pagan to the Mets before the 2008 season for two minor leaguers who’ve not been heard from since. The return price would obviously be much, much steeper.
Humorously, this post could almost as easily be about Felix Pie, except (a) the Orioles don’t have quite the same outfield glut as the Mets, and (b) it would be even more irrationally frustrating to discuss getting Pie back because Pie was supposed to be this good.
In the end, Pagan would be a great fit for the Cubs – probably a slightly better fit than he is with the Mets. And from an invisible hand economics perspective, that should mean that it’s worth the Cubs making a trade for him and worth the Mets trading him. Things don’t always play out in a way that makes sense, though, and this is not likely to go down.
But it’s worth considering.
The Cubs Are Talking to Ben Sheets
Much like the rumor that the Chicago Cubs are pursuing starting pitcher Joel Piniero (Buster Olney even had the Cubs as the “leader” at one point), there is a rumor involving the Cubs and a starting pitcher making the rounds that I’d like to be true, but almost certainly isn’t. Or, more precisely, the rumor isn’t quite as certain as it sounds.
Various reports (most of which are originating with ESPN) indicate that the Cubs have been talking to free agent pitcher Ben Sheets. You’ll remember Sheets from his time with the Milwaukee Brewers; time alternately spent schooling fools and rehabbing something or other.
2009 was a completely lost season to Sheets as he could not find a team willing to pay him to not pitch (everyone knew his elbow was about to ess-splode), so he had surgery and rehabbed. He now says he’s back and ready to go. Sounds like a great guy to sign to a one-cheap-year-plus-bigger-money-option-year deal, no? Well, yeah. Except he wants his big money now. More on Sheets and the Cubs, after the jump.
No Threeway Trade Between Cubs, Red Sox, and Padres – For Now
Rumors swirled Monday and yesterday that the Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, and San Diego Padres were discussing a trade that would see the Cubs net, among other possibilities, Jacoby Ellsbury to man center field next year. Those rumors may have been overstated.
Speculation that the Cubs, Red Sox and Padres have talked about a three-way trade that would send Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz to the Cubs was shot down on Monday.
Although the Red Sox and Cubs have talked recently about other matchups, a deal that would send pitcher Andrew Cashner and Josh Vitters as well as a third minor-leaguer to San Diego, which would send first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to Boston, has not been broached. ESPN Chicago.
Perhaps the most interested thing to note is not that the three-way trade was shot down, but instead is the notion that the Cubs and Red Sox have indeed talked trade. Landing both Ellsbury and Buchholz would be a coup for the Cubs, but the question remains: if not absolutely necessary in order to land Adrian Gonzalez, why would the Red Sox trade these two young, cheap, successful players?
It’s worth pointing out that Buchholz’s career has nearly mirror Ellsbury’s in terms of hype: he came up in 2007 for part of the season, and was dominant. The hype machine exploded. But then he was actually quite bad in his time with the Sox in 2008, before settling in to “pretty good” this past season. He was, of course, just 24, so his best days may very well be ahead of him yet. Which is, of course, why I’d hardly expect him to be traded to the Cubs.
Jason Bay to the Mets
Mini-update, as it relates to the Chicago Cubs: With Bay going to the New York Mets, that’s one fewer outfielder who could take a spot in the Boston Red Sox outfield, thus forcing the Sox to trade Jacoby Ellsbury to the Cubs. It also means that Matt Holliday is incrementally more likely to accept the St. Louis Cardinals’ offer to return next year.
Hey, you wanted to know how the Bay signing affected the Cubs, didn’t you?
