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We’re coming up on Spring Training, which means it’s time to start prognosticating. For us here at Bleacher Nation, it means our series of posts about why each team in the National League Central is going to suck (are you getting excited?).

But Baseball Prospectus has jumped the gun onĀ projecting the entire NL Central to suck this year, including the Chicago Cubs. BP puts together projected W/L records for every team in the majors based on the component pieces of their team.

The good news is that BP sees the St. Louis Cardinals winning just 79 games, and the Brewers winning just 81. The bad news is that they see the Cubs winning just 76 games – finishing 10 games under .500. They’ve got the Brewers winning the division with their .500 record, topping the Cardinals, Reds, Cubs, Astros, and Pirates, in that order.

The key to the Cubs’ projected struggles? Nope, not the offense, which they project to be average. It’s the pitching and defense: the Cubs are expected to give up the third most runs in the entire National League. Finally someone has noticed the potential pitching disaster looming for the Cubs.

  • Cardfan

    May want to double-check your source. Clicked on your link and it shows a different result – and I am comfortable with it…

    St. Louis Cardinals 89 73
    Cincinnati Reds 82 80
    Chicago Cubs 77 85
    Houston Astros 75 87
    Milwaukee Brewers 75 87 (where these bastards belong}
    Pittsburgh Pirates 70 92

    • Ace

      They updated from the time I posted to the time you clicked (despite their notation that it was last updated on the 27th). Pretty huge shift, so I’m not sure what changed in their formula from early this morning ’til then.

      Did you think I just forgot how to read? :)

      • Cardfan

        They must have forgot to factor in the incredible impact a .260 lifetime batter with roid-induced amnesia will have on the offense. It’s all better now…

        • Ace

          What he turns out to be a genius as a hitting coach? I don’t really know what I would think of the world if that happens.

          • Cardfan

            You can take comfort in a sample of his recent pupils when he was teaching in the previous offseason:

            Matt Holliday – McRoid’n screwed up his swing and his average plummeted. When he disregarding what he was taught, his average skyrocketed.

            Chris Duncan – released from the Red Sox minor league system last year after batting .230 in AAA.

            Skip Schumaker – while McRoid’n may want to take credit, I think the combination of Schumaker’s tenacity and that irritating wristband velcro wrap/re-wrap after every pitch is the real reason for his success at the plate.

            I may be going out on a limb on this, but my guess is that “genius” and “steroids” have never been used as descriptors for the same athlete…

  • Kevin G

    That pretty much what I thought.

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