Comments on: Remember Joel Guzman?

By: Matt S

Matt S — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 21:53:48 +0000

I say he has a high floor because even if his power and walks never come around, he’ll be a major league player. He has enough defense at a premium position to be able to get away with being below average defensively. Even at the height of his prospectdom, it was pretty well understood that Guzman was eventually a third baseman. Castro on the other hand, will be an at least average defensive shortstop with a near .300 batting average. That’s a good MLB player, and anything on top of that is gravy.

Another factor is plate discipline, as that is perhaps the most common way guys flare out. Guzman for example consistently struck out on 25% of his plate appearances without taking many walks. There are relatively few big time prospects who were busts and didn’t have major strike zone control issues. Castro last season struck out only about 10% of the time, while walking about 5%, and combined with his quick line drive swing and there’s not much to worry about in that department.

Vitters on the other hand takes so few walks that it’s detrimental to his power ceiling and offensive production, which are big deals when you’re a weak fielding third baseman.

By: Kevin G

Kevin G — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 17:35:45 +0000

Good stuff I am one of those guys that is willing to include Vitters in a trade I just dont see him being what they believe he is going to be. I seen him play a number of times in Peoria I wasnt that impress with his pitch selection and his defense isnt that great. I believe that his poor pitch selection will kill him in the higher levels.

By: Ace

Ace — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 13:38:27 +0000

Gotcha. Thanks Scarey (who also knows his prospect shit big time).

By: Scarey

Scarey — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 07:21:41 +0000

I would disagree with that. But, Vitters is also very good in that area. Castro strikes out one every 8.5 plate appearances while Vitters strikes out 1 of every 6.5 plate appearances. Also, Castro has done it at AA.

It’s true that Vitters has drawn Vlad comparisons, but I think it’s because his contact ability along with his power.

By: Ace

Ace — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 22:48:49 +0000

Vitters is an even better hitter to contact than is Castro, no?

By: Scarey

Scarey — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 22:04:36 +0000

I don’t want to speak for Matt S. but my guess on why he says Castro has a higher floor is the fact that yes, he does play very good defense, and he doesn’t strike out much. It’s rare to have a guy be able to get consistent contact like Castro does. He just has an uncanny ability to put the bat on the ball and from most reports I’ve read, when he puts the ball in play, he usually squares it up and puts the fat part of the bat on the ball.

The fact that he can make contact is important especially in this instance because… Guzman always had problems with strikeouts and was very up and down on batting average. If Castro took more walks, I would say he would be as can’t-miss as they come.

By: Ace

Ace — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 21:09:23 +0000

That was my guess, too, though that’s part of why it makes me curious (as Guzman was also a shortstop prospect at Castro’s age).

By: KB

KB — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 20:53:54 +0000

Ace, I don’t have remotely as much info as Matt S about our prospects, but I presume that Castro has a high “floor” because of his non-hitting skills. A SS can be valuable even when he’s a poor hitter (see Izturis, Cesar).

By: Ace

Ace — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 18:51:46 +0000

Matt, curious why you say Castro has a higher floor (which, if true, is a great point)? Guzman was putting up an OPS over .800 in AA when he was Castro’s age. Is it just the physical tools/defensive ability of Castro that gives you more confidence in his floor?

And for anyone reading this comment, Matt is the one to know. Wrigley Bound (click on his name) is the place the learn about Cubs prospects.

By: hotstove.com / archive » Saturday Afternoon Hot Stove Notes: Mets, Mariners, Cubs, Red Sox, Reds, more

Sat, 06 Feb 2010 18:51:26 +0000

[...] Cubs’ fans are hoping Starlin Castro does not end up like former can’t-miss prospect Joel [...]