Based on Spring Training Record, and One-Run Games Last Year, Cubs Could Surprise in 2010

There’s a little known trick to predicting surprise teams in a given Major League Baseball season. With apologies to the stat-heads around who are going to want me to list the surprise teams this method has predicted, I’m going to keep this simple: if you take a team and view their record in games decided by one run, and then view their Spring Training record in the subsequent season, you can often predict that a team who disappointed in a previous season is poised to surprise. Individually, the records are usually attributed to luck, fluke, etc. Nobody cares about Spring Training records – and rightfully so.

Maybe we should have seen the St. Louis Cardinals coming last year – in 2008, their record in 1-run games was 24-28, and in 2009, they lit up Spring Training to the tune of a 19-12 record. Yes, mid-season additions helped the Cards, but you get the point.

So why am I telling you this?

In 2009, the Chicago Cubs’ record in 1-run games was just 16-22. In 2010, the Chicago Cubs’ record in Spring Training was 18-12.

Just throwing it out there.

Brett Taylor is the editor and lead writer at Bleacher Nation, and can also be found as Bleacher Nation on Twitter and on Facebook.

One response to “Based on Spring Training Record, and One-Run Games Last Year, Cubs Could Surprise in 2010”

  1. KB

    I’ve heard the one-run games thing a lot before, but I’ve never heard of the ST connection.
    One more thing in the Cub’s favor!