File this one under duh, but it’s still worth learning what kind of package the San Diego Padres might consider for Adrian Gonzalez this winter. In short: a lot.

The Padres are expected to listen, but with Gonzalez making just $5.5 million next season and the Padres’ successful 2010 season leading them to believe they could only make themselves weaker without him, the pricetag in terms of talent would be enormous.

How big? For example, one executive said a package of outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury [stats], infielder Jed Lowrie and first base prospect Anthony Rizzo would not be enough. Would the Red Sox even consider such a deal in the first place? Assuming they would and it would not be sufficient, the names of starter Casey Kelly or shortstop Jose Iglesias will start to get mentioned.

Given that they were competitive in 2010, and given than Gonzalez costs just $5.5 million in 2011, it’s hard to blame the Padres for demanding a king’s ransom in trade, despite the fact that Gonzalez is under contract for just one more year. If the Padres are going to deal Gonzalez before the season even begins (and before they have a chance to see if they can compete again), they’re going to require a whole lot in return.

As for the packages discussed above, it is difficult to contextualize them in terms of Chicago Cubs. Suffice it to say, the “rejected” package includes two very good, young, inexpensive ML regulars and a first base prospect who just put up an .815 OPS in AA at age 20. Think something like Andrew Cashner, Tyler Colvin, and Josh Vitters. And that’s the one that gets rejected.

Kelly and Iglesias are top 25 (in all of baseball) type prospects. At that level, you’re talking about the Chris Archers, Brett Jacksons, and yes, even Starlin Castros of the Chicago Cubs.

Something to think about.

  • rylan

    I heard the Padres rejected the entire Royals farm system for Gonzalez….maybe they don’t want to move him 😉

  • BT

    That’s fine if the Padres want to hold out for a King’s Ransom. But it also means that they won’t get anything for Gonzalez except for the draft picks when he leaves. No one is going to give up 3-5 top notch prospects in order to either have Gonzalez for one year, or to have the opportunity to give him 140 million over 7 years. I suppose Kenny Williams might be crazy enough, but the Sox certainly don’t have 3-5 prospects of that caliber.

    They can set the market wherever they want. That doesn’t mean anyone will meet their price.

  • art

    no way. just wait for 2012. why give up all that when some team will get him in 2012 and keep the kids.

  • art

    they can ask for the world and won’t get it. as the season goes on, the price will go down. I’d still wait for 2012 and offer him a good deal without doing what Hank did with Soriano.