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Small Adam Dunn update here, but it’s an important one. We’ve got our first data point on what Dunn’s contract could look like: 3 years, $40 million. That’s the guess according to MLB agent Matt Sosnick, who, it should be noted, does not represent Dunn.

It’s certainly as fair a guess as any other – I, myself, also expect Dunn to land a three-year deal, only after unsuccessfully lobbying for a four-year contract. As for the dollars, given his defensive limitations, I wouldn’t be shocked to see that number drift closer to $10 million per year, but neither would I be surprised to see it slightly above $13 million. Either way, with that as the range, there can be no doubt that the Chicago Cubs could afford Dunn, even with their budget restrictions.

The question is whether they should lock themselves into Dunn for three years at that kind of money.

  • art

    defense and pitching win. as much as Dunn would help the offense, his D would make the Cubs worse if that’s possible. the 13 million would be what Hank would pay a one sided player.

  • Dave

    I wouldn’t worry so much about the 3/40 part, but about the full no-trade Hendry would give him to keep him from being sent to an AL team in a couple years when the Cubs are completely out of it

  • Peter Kempf

    Why on earth does anybody want Adam Dunn? Yes, he’ll hit a bunch of homers but his defense will only solidify the Cubs as the worst fielding team in the NL. And, his speed will solidify their place as the slowest team in the NL. These are 2 areas the Cubs need to dramatically improve and Dunn only makes it worse. C’mon folks, let’s start getting it right. I don’t care if it takes a couple of more years as long as we’re headed in the right direction. Adding Dunn with a hefty contract is going in the wrong direction.

  • KB

    “Defense and pitching win.”

    Yep, those 2 things are very important in the 50% of the time when the team is not up to bat. The other 50%? You need guys who get on base, and who have power, the two MOST important offensive aspects.

    Guess what Dunn’s two greatest strengths are?

    • Kevin G

      But we don’t have the pitching or defense to win. So you wait a year go after Adrain Gonzalez you get Defense, power and a guy that get on base.

      My hope is the Vitters, Brett Jackson and I think Hak Ju Lee will have a break through season next and will be ready for 2012.

      • KB

        I’m all for that plan.
        In fact, though I’m a fan of Dunn’s attributes, I don’t think it’s necessarily the right move to chase him; I just think we’re probably a long way from contending right now, and signing a guy like Dunn would be smart only if he were “the last piece of the puzzle.”

      • Ace

        I’d put the chances that Hak-Ju Lee is ready by 2012 at no better than 1 in 10. That said, I do think Jackson and Vitters should be ready by then (if not sooner), and hopefully will be very good. Not to play the what-if game, but can you imagine a lineup with Gonzalez, Soto, Castro, and a successful Vitters, Jackson and Colvin? It’s a bit of a stretch, but if it happened, the Cubs would have a whole lot of money to play with in the rotation.

        • Kevin G

          From what I understand Hak Ju Lee will be starting in AA next year, so he might be ready by midseason in 2012.

          • Ace

            You’ve heard that he’s skipping Daytona? I hadn’t heard that, and it seems unlikely.

            • Kevin G

              I call Bruce Levine on his radio show and asked about Lee and he said he would be starting in AA.

              • Ace

                Hmm. It’s not impossible for guys to jump High A, but it’s pretty unusual. I don’t want to fight with Bruce Levine, but if I had to guess, I’d say Lee might end at AA, but he won’t start there. He’s not even 20 yet, and he didn’t exactly set Peoria on fire (.704 OPS and 34 errors in just 118 games).

                • Kevin G

                  He just finished intructional league with no Errors. His bat will come I

  • Kevin G

    Lee has great bat speed but his swing is flat. If he swung down on the ball more and was able to generate more back spin on the ball, he could have more power.

    • Ace

      He’ll definitely develop more power as he fills out (though no one really projects him as a power hitter), but he could still use more discipline at the plate, and some seasoning in the field. If Levine says he’s hearing that Lee will start at AA, I can’t dispute it, as I have no inside information. It just strikes me as a very, very aggressive move, and one that could be setting Lee up for failure.

      • Kevin G

        I don’t think he will be a power hitter I think he will max out at about 15 HR if that. His discipline isn’t bad for a 20 yr player with an OBA of .354, it his ablilty to get extra base hits that bother me. His glove is no worse the Castro and another in the Minors will help that.

  • KB

    I thought the whole reason to get excited about him was his dazzling glove?
    If he has weak plate discipline, limited power, and an OK glove, why all the hype?

    • Kevin G

      He has more range and a better arm then Castro. Most scouts see him as a leadoff with Plus Plus Speed. His discipline is better then Castro’s he took 49 BB in 485 AB. Which is better then Castro’s 29 BB in 468 AB. And had a better OBP then Castro did this year by about 30 points. Discipline wasn’t his problem it was hits not falling in.

      • Ace

        Lee had an OBP of .354 at Single A Peoria this year. Castro had a .347 OBP … in the Major Leagues. I’m not sure I see the comparison there. Lee may end up with the better OBP-type numbers, but comparing them right now seems awfully premature.

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