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After the San Diego Padres played surprisingly well half-way into 2010, the team’s plans to sell off every viable piece was scrapped. That meant the Padres were hanging onto bargain-priced superstar, Adrian Gonzalez. The first baseman, one of the most consistent hitters over the past few years, the team felt, was too valuable to their playoff push to be moved.

Ultimately, the Padres missed the playoffs, but the success may have changed the team’s thinking going into 2011. Perhaps they shouldn’t be sellers, trying to rebuild around their young pitching. Perhaps they should go balls to the wall, keep Gonzalez, try to resign after the season, and get draft pick compensation if he walks.

Perhaps not.

More likely, Gonzalez will be traded, either this offseason or before next summer’s trading dealine.

The Padres, who had baseball’s second lowest payroll this year, have said they can’t afford to pay their best player the salary he’ll command.

“While we’d still love to have Adrian here long-term, it doesn’t appear to be practical from a financial standpoint,” club CEO Jeff Moorad told the Union-Tribune’s Tim Sullivan. “So I’m certainly not counting on that. But we’ll engage and see if there’s a deal that can be made.”

Gonzalez has never complained about the below-market, five-year, $15-million contract he signed in 2007. The first baseman, though, will be 29 when that contract’s scheduled to expire. Rest assured, Gonzalez wants to hit his next contract out of the park.

Asked if Teixeira’s eight-year, $180 million Yankees deal and Howard’s five-year, $125 Phillies contract are benchmarks for what it’ll take to sign Gonzalez, Boggs, while not talking specific dollars, was crystal clear.

“What I’m going to be looking for,” the agent said Thursday, “is what I call franchise player compensation. You can put whatever number you want on it. I think Adrian as an individual compares very favorably with those players.” SignOnSanDiego.com.

The Cubs are considered one of five teams likely to land Gonzalez if he’s dealt, citing Gonzalez’s previous comments that he’d like to play in Chicago, and the Cubs’ “willingness to spend money” (um, maybe next year?). I’m tingly.

The most interesting part here, perhaps, is the notion that Gonzalez is likely to be traded before the 2011 season ends. While a trade will not increase the number of competing suitors when he’s a free agent, it will certainly give whatever team trades for him a leg up in signing him long-term.

For whatever it’s worth, Gonzalez is said to be looking for Teixeira (8/$180 million) or Ryan Howard (5/$125 million) money.

  • art

    if Hank can pull that off, he’ll be back on my good side.

  • KevinG

    Gonzalez is the real reason I am so, high on Reynolds. I know that statement doesn tmake a whole lot of sense, but bare with me. It we trade Aramis we can get the pieces we need to get Gonzalez, we need Reynolds to take over 3B and to protect Gonzalez in the lineup. I still think my Trade idea with a little modification can work. But if we can trade for him and show we are willing to spend the money going into next year to get pitching. I dont think he will be a hard sell to resign. If we can sign him for 5 years at between 110 or 125 I am ok with that. We have Fukudome, Ramirez, Silva, and Grabow all coming off the books next year. All together that over 40 mil, now if we can find a way to get rid of half of Zambrano and Soriano’s contracts that would free up another 18 mil, but I know that a long shot.

    I know that Gonzalez most likely isnt going to want to go though a rebuild again, but he might want to be apart of history. If we can get with the way the farm system is build if we got Gonzalez and Reynolds in the middle of the lineup and the speed of your farm system. We only need to add an Ace and we have a World Series in 2013. We have never had a 3 and 4 hitters that can both hit 40 HR respectively or the speed in the lineup that the farm system provides.

    I honesty think if Guyer keeps hitting in Venazuela the way he is. He will make Big club out of spring training. So I say we trade Colvin in the Gonzalez trade and we will have that left handed bat we need in the middle of the line up. I am really afraid we are going to see a fall off of power and avg with Colvin now that Clubs know he will chase sliders and breaking ball.

    • rylan

      Why Reynolds? I mean if your looking for protection, why him out of anyone else?

      • Kevin G

        Because he will be available and he doesn’t cost much (12 mor 13 mil over the next 2 years). He also plays a position we are going to need and he is still young (27). Also if you show Gonzalez protection he maybe more likely to sign.

        He are not going to pick up Ramirez option for 2012 and Vitters hasn’t been all that impressive, so I don’t think he will be ready by 2012.

        • rylan

          What do you think it would take for us to get Reynolds?

          • Kevin G

            I think it would take Dewitt or Vitters, Wells or Gorz and Casjner or Jay Jackson.

            • wax_eagle

              That seems like an awful lot for a guy who Ks 200 times a year. Even with 40 HR which are certainly not garunteed.

              Don’t get me wrong, I am in favor of acquiring Reynolds if the price is lower than what you are quoting. I would actually be happy if he was the extent of our acquisitions this winter and we played the hand we had for the remainder of the season. Would be nice if we could unload Dome, then we could maybe pursue one of the outfield bats available (Dye or Ordonez perhaps). Else we have a good group of young players that are blocked and need ABs so that they can provide good cheap options in the future.

              However, if we can get Gonzalez (provided he re-ups for at least 3 if not 5 years) and Reynolds than that would instantly make us a much stronger contender in the Central. Both guys would benefit from 81 games a year in Wrigley and it would make the corners of the infield the kind of strength they were when Lee and Ramirez were both on (not quite as good but close). Vitters is then expendable as is Hoffpaur.

              Unless we can get both of them I don’t think that we are in a position to really do much.

              • Kevin G

                I agree we need both. The 200 K thing bothers me too, but Adam Dunn strikeout 199 times. So we are going to get a around 200 k guy regardless. I would rather him be younger and have a chance to improve.

                • Larry

                  Hopefully we don’t either. We don’t need guys that strike out 200 times a year. When you look at Reynolds, look at his batting average as well. This guy struggles to hit .200. Yes, he has power and can catch the ball, which is something that Dunn can’t do, but Reynolds averages a hit once in every five at bats. In the middle of your line-up as a run producer that would kill you. It is exactly what A-ram and D-lee provided at the outset of the season and look at how that worked out. If the Cubs expect to do better next season, they have to get guys hitting in the middle of the line-up that can actually knock runs in.

                  • rylan

                    Honestly, if I were to trade away some of our top prospects for a third baseman(which we don’t need…unless we can dump Aramis which is extremely unlikely) I would have to go after David Wright. He’s been fairly healthy, and averaged around 27-28 homers a year, if you throw out that weak ’09 season. He has a .383 career OBP and an average over .300. Although his defense has been a little below average, Wright is a possbile exception in my opinion to trade some of our best prospects. And only if we knew we could contend within the next 2-3 years. Enough of Mark Reynolds, Larry had a great point when he brought up Lee and Ramirez’s struggles in the heart of the order. We were all sick of seeing those .220 lines at the 3 and 4 holes, so the idea of bringing in someone below that is ridiculous.

                    • Kevin G

                      Reynold was a .276 with runners in scoring position this year. WOW that .077 over his seasonal avg. I think he can handle the 4 hole.

                    • Larry

                      I agree Wright is a much better option, than Reynolds will be. I just don’t see the Mets trading Wright. Another 3rd basemen to look at would be Zimmerman of the Nationals, but with the new contract and the high hopes that Washington has for him, he isn’t going anywhere either.

                  • Kevin G

                    Adam Dunn’s Career avg is .250 and Reynolds is .242(and that with batting .199 this year). Let Judy work with him maybe we can cut down some of those Ks. Reynolds also had a groin and finger injuries so, the numbers are a little skewed. If you look at the 2009 numbers .260, 40 Hr and get this 20 SBs. Are closer to what we maybe looking at.

                    • Ace

                      Look at all his seasons OTHER than 2009. Is 2009 the real Reynolds, or all the other seasons? Take out 2009, and he’s got a career OPS+ right around 100. That’s perfectly… average.

                    • Larry

                      Judy will be just as effective with Dunn and Reynolds as he was with Lee and Ramirez, to start the season. Reynolds’ number have gotten progressively worse each season, so to say that he is a career .242 hitter and hinting that he will get better under Judy, is being a little naive. Reynolds, played in only 145 games this past season and still struck out over 200 times. he strikes out over 40% of the time.
                      Granted his number, with runners in scoring position may be better than the horrible .198 line he put up this year, but if he strikes out 40% of the time, he is still leaving TOO MANY runners on base, and his customary strike outs, won’t move those runners up a base for a sacrifice fly to bring in.
                      200 strike outs and a career .242 hitter, neither number would give anyone anything to brag about.

            • rylan

              By trading all that away for Reynolds, are you assuming we wait until 2012 and hope Gonzalez hits free agency rather than traded and resigned? Or, what would we have to give up for him in a trade? Either way, it seems to me as if we are trading away our entire farm system for a hopefull playoff run, which is far from guarenteed.

              • Kevin G

                Ok in my opinion they are only 6 players that should be untouchable, Castro, Soto, Brett Jackson, Brandon Guyer, Hak Ju Lee and Archer. So as long as your not giving up those 6 you’re good.

                • rylan

                  That’s like saying you’re okay with trading 2-3 of our top prospects for a few seasons of 35 home runs. Any suggestions on how to improve our pitching staff?

              • Kevin G

                My thought process is you push a trade for Dbacks to take a package of this Dewitt, Gorz and Jay Jackson. Which give them a replacement in Dewitt at 3rd.

                For Gonzalez we Trade Ramirez. With about 6 to 7 mil the Angels for Mark Trumbo, Jean Segura and one of their Low level pitching prospect to the Padres and the Cubs send Vitters, Colvin and Carpenter.

                Colvin look expendable with the Guyer is playing.

                • rylan

                  You’ve been a big fan of Guyer lately…how do you suppose we fill the voids left at second, the up-coming outfield, and the pitching staff?

                  • Kevin G

                    The void at second we just need someone to bridge the gap until Lee is ready. Barney would do that, I love is presents on the field.

                    For up and coming OFer well, I thought that was covered by Brett Jackson and Guyer.

                    And Pitching I didn’t suggest trading Cashner (even though I would be willing to trade him), Archer, or McNutt. So our top young pitchers are intact. But as for getting an Ace I don’t have a clue, the only Ace available through trade I think is Greinke. But I looked at there system and I can’t find anything they need, that they don’t already have on the farm.

                    • rylan

                      Sorry, I had misread your previous post. I thought you had mentioned trading Brett Jackson rather than Jay Jackson. But in all honesty, I can’t see any of this panning out…

            • Larry

              You would think that with the numbers of Reynolds this past year, 221 kos and a .198 ba, that his trade value would be a lot lower than that. I know you will counter with the fact that he hit 32 home runs, but he also strikes out 40% and he was injured part of the season. The D-backs would be stupid to think that he would net them 3 or 4 high ranked prospects at this point, too many chinks in the armor.

              Putting Reynolds, Dunn and Soriano with all their strike outs together in 1 line-up, you might as well concede the season before it even begins.

  • rylan

    “Reynold was a .276 with runners in scoring position this year. WOW that .077 over his seasonal avg. I think he can handle the 4 hole.”

    It’s not that I don’t believe he could bring power to Chicago, I’m just not that interested in giving up an arm and a leg for him.

    • Ace

      An arm AND a leg? I don’t know that I’d give up an arm or a leg.

      • Kevin G

        For Reynolds weren’t giving up much. We are giving what Dewitt, Wells or Gorz and Jay jackson. Who cares Dewitt is an average 2B at best and is just holding Lees spot on the roster until Lee is ready.

        Gorz and Well are back of the end starter there are a ton of them in baseball no lose there.

        Jackson is the only one with any real potental and my question is why didn’t they call him up when they were calling everyone else to fill the bullpen? So, we get a 35 Hr plus guy for an avg at best 2B, a back of the rotation Starter and a guy for some reason they didn’t call up when they needed arm Hmm? Yea your right that too. Big a lose.

  • Kevin G

    Here is the bottom line if we don’t what to get stuck with Dunn. We need to try and get Gonzalez and if we don’t want to give up pretty much our whole farm system. We need to trade something of value Ramirez is the closest thing to value that we have that is expendable. It would also clear up some money.

    The reason for Reynolds is he is young and cheap. Both money and Trade wise hell we may be able to get for Dewitt and Gorz. The Dbacks have like 5 200 k players so, they may give him up for cheap.

    The other reason to do this it helps our defense at both corners. Reynolds is better Defensively then Ramirez and we all know Gonzalez is a gold glove 1B.

    • rylan

      Dewitt, Wells, and Jackson for Reynolds….I’d do like Dewitt and Diamond for him…but seriously, I don’t want a .220 BA, 18 homer disappointment playing third for the next three years.

      • Kevin G

        He was injuried most of the year and even with that he still hit 32 hr. And I don’t see a repeat of under 200.

        • rylan

          Let’s ‘assume’ we make a deal for him this winter. What would your 2011 projections for him be?

  • Kevin G

    I would say around .250 35 HR and around 100 RBI. But he will still have about 200 Ks. Would I rather have Wright yes but he will truely cost an arm and a leg.

    He is a legit power hitter my hope is that Judy can work with him on his approach and cut down the strikeouts. I bet if he can cut the SO to 150 his avg goes up about 15 to 20 points.

    • rylan

      I think I’m alright with Aramis.

      • Kevin G

        Right there is the problem you are only look at Reynolds. Here are our optionsz:
        1) we keep Ramirez, We will most likely get Dunn. In that case the get close to the same number as reynolds but a bad 1B that hurts the whole infield.

        2)We move Ramirez and go after Beltre and have Gonzalez and Beltre in the Lineup. Sounds great right? One problem you now no longer have money to do a trade and sign so, Gonzalez may walk at the end of the season.

        3) We move Ramirez and move Dewitt to 3B. Well that just put a huge whole in the lineup.

        4) We sign a lesser 1B and hope Gonzalez doesn’t get traded somewhere he ends up really liking. But then you still have an issue at 3B do you pick up large option or hope Vitters is ready?

        4 Hendry isn’t going to do because his job is going to be on the line.

        • rylan

          You make it sound like by trading for Reynolds we will automatically get Gonzalez too.

          • Kevin G

            No I am not saying that but, it puts us in a better position To make moves.

            And Larry he hits over 400 with men on 3rd.

            • Larry

              Over 400 with runners on 3rd, that would mean that under all other circumstances his batting average would be even lower than the .198 that he posted last season.

              If you can guarantee that he gets ample at bats with a runner on 3rd, then I say, “By all means trade for him.” Heaven help us is there isn’t a runner on 3rd when he comes to bat.

            • rylan

              No. Just stop please…

              • Kevin G

                To be complete honest I would just be happy with just rebuilding. Scrabbing the 2011 and just go young. Still do the Ramirez trade, but don’t trade for Gonzalez. But still flip them along Colvin to the BoSox for Drake Britton, Anthony Rizzo and Will Middlebrook. Red Sox and then flip Our Segura, Trumbo, and Colvin along with whoever else they want to get Gonzalez.

                • rylan

                  You make some calls and find out who wants Aramis along with his $16MM salary and guarenteed DL stint

                  • Kevin G

                    The dodger and Angels need power at 3B and that just off the top of my head.

  • rylan

    Then they had better be willing to take on all of his salary. There’s no chance we would send Aramis and 7+ million…we’re keeping him. I’m sorry.

  • Kevin G

    You do realize the more money you eat the better the prospects right? You also know without a major overhaul and I don’t mean just adding Dunn, we aren’t going to contend. I person would like to get some good prospect so we can ever use them on the field or in another trade for Some like maybe an Ace?

    Players like Aramis and Zambrano aren’t good for the team. Aramis is lazy and I really don’t think he like playing the game. Zambrano is just a cancer.

    • ed

      You’re right about Aramis. He should go to Colvin camp.

  • brian

    so you want a league leader in errors to keep the cubs from having another league leader in errors… what happens if both these guys are on our team… i just see a merry-go-round of the bases. If Vitters can actually play 3rd(or first) than he is that much more important than some “never will be” that strikes out 200 times a year and cant handle his position… good call… sure 40 hrs sounds awesome to but 30 errors and 200 sk sounds fucking terrible to me, keep this dream where it is

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