[The following post comes from BN user Oswego Chris, who is frequently supplying the BN Message Board with humor and insight. His latest effort takes a look at whether we might be overestimating Alfonso Soriano’s plainly thin trade market. Given yesterday’s David DeJesus signing, the subject of how the Cubs might trade Soriano takes on increasing relevance, and I thought Chris’s post was worth a bump to the front page. Enjoy.]

Simple economics tells us that for us to trade Alfonso, there must be demand. Alfonso is the supply. Last year, at the age of 35, Alfonso supplied 26 HR’s and 88 RBI’s. That is pretty much where the good news ends. He also supplied a .244 avg, 2 stolen bases, a meager 27 walks, and 113 strikeouts. He did have a .759 OPS (not horrible), but the .289 OBP that was a part of that was pretty bad. His fielding percentage was .965, which was well below the league average for LF, .986. Range is very debatable with all sorts of new sabre-stats; but what is not debatable is his extreme fear of the left field wall.

Let’s now analyze the demand side. I am going to look at each team andĀ gaugeĀ their interest based on a number of factors, on a scale from zero to five. Zero means no interest. Five means very high interest (of which I can forecast right now, there will be none). So, team by team, here we go:

THE ENTIRE NATIONAL LEAGUE – Interest level = 0. You could have argued for the Giants in a Zito for Sori swap, but after trading Jonathan Sanchez, no. These teams have seen him for the last 5 years in LF. OK, so realistically we have just eliminated 15 of the 30 teams, so now let’s turn to the AL….where someone must be able to use him as a DH…right?….right?….please?

BALTIMORE ORIOLES = 2. Ahhh, Jim Hendry’s old dumping grounds. Last year’s DH Vlad is a FA, but their OF is crowded and they have Chris Davis and other possibilities.

BOSTON RED SOX = 1. Highly, highly doubtful, but fill in your own Theo Compensation gag.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX = 1. Plagued with own bad contracts, might consider him for Adam Dunn.

CLEVELAND INDIANS = 0. Travis Hafner signed for 2 more years at DH.

DETROIT TIGERS = 0. Plenty of outfielders who can actually field, and Victor Martinez at DH.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS = 0. Just what a young rebuildinig team needs! No way….Butler and Hosmer have position filled.

LA ANGELS = 3. He would be an upgrade over Bobby Abreau, but lots of big money on books. Still, they need O-fence.

MINNESOTA TWINS = 0. Considering they get rid of guys (i.e. Delmon Young) for not playing the “Twins Way” (taking pitches, hitting behind runners, etc), I am sure they would love him.

NEW YORK YANKEES = 0. They didn’t want him when he was supposed to be good. Seriously though, too much offense already, no need.

OAKLAND A’S = 0. Did you read or see Moneyball? [Ed. – Eh, I could see the A’s taking Soriano if they were paying just a couple million bucks. They’re into exploiting inefficiencies, and perhaps near washed up vets who are rotting on the vine of a bloated contract are the next inefficiency.]

SEATTLE MARINERS = 3. Wow, I am learning from my own research. This an extremely offensively challenged team. If they don’t land Prince, they may be desperate.

TAMPA BAY RAYS = 1. Trying to resign Johnny Damon, highly doubt they would think about Sori.

TEXAS RANGERS = 0. They have offense coming out of their ears! Too many offensive guys to mention.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS = 1. Lind at 1B, Encarcion had a nice year at DH last year….don’t see it.

So, it’s actually better than I thought. 2 or 3 teams that might actually have interest! Feel free to berate me for my cynicism, but I think this is fairly accurate. Angels, Mariners, or Orioles … that’s about it.

  • john

    One last point. Soriano decides he likes it here and doesn’t sign off on a trade.
    Speculation aside he is in the drivers seat. If he sees Fielder and Kelly Johnson And Cespedes all added to the club he may think hey we’re gonna win I’m staying. In which case all this talk is for naught.

  • KB

    Good, eye-opening article.
    The only change I’d make is that zero you gave for the Royals: they’ve repeatedly shown (trading for Yuni Betancourt, signing Mike Jacobs, Jeff Francouer, etc.) that they truly don’t care about OBP at ALL. They’re also constantly trying to bring in “star” names, they still talk about things like the “the importance of having a vet presence,” and they always seem to be expecting to play for the pennant while they should be rebuilding.

    Theo/Hoyer would be nuts to not try to exploit GM Dayton Moore before he becomes relegated to the dustbin of the past.

  • hogie

    If Sori had a reasonable contract, he would be a pretty good piece for most teams. If his defense is what some beleive to be average, his bat fills the spot pretty good. The sad fact here is that he was one of the most productive hitters on the team last year. He still had the power and was one of the best on the team with RISP, .285/.331/.508, as well as in clutch situations (late/close-.986 OPS). Unless we go after some big time hitters, we are going to need the production from somewhere, and adding just Prince or Pujols isn’t going to get it done. I guess my point really is, at 3-4 mill/year (price saved by moving him) he isn’t that bad of a player for us either, he just maybe needs to be used a bit differently.

  • nonesuch

    I’m trying to understand the advantage of paying Soriano 14 million for the next three years to be another team’s DH and get a middling prospect with a box of cracker jacks. Unless, Mr. Epstein and co. have a master plan of throwing good money after the bad, but by all accounts the Cubs payroll is going a little south, not north. My point is, Soriano isn’t really blocking anybody right now, so what’s the point?

    • Dougy D

      I personally think that it would be worth him not being around. The Superfriends said that they wanted to change the culture of the club house. To me that says bye bye Zambrano, Soriano, or whomever they deem. I would think that removing those two big money under-performers would give a bunch of younger or cheaper players a chance to step up to the plate. Guys that are team players and hustle on every play. Or in Z’s case, guys that aren’t going to throw guys under the bus and pitch a fit.

      Just my thoughts. I would be pumped if we picked up any ok prospect for Soriano.

  • Nick Nesler

    with the astros going to the AL in 2013, and having rolling interleague play, i know they arent sure how many games each team will play against the other league but there has to be at least a small chance of bringing the DH to the national league. If this happens we could at least get something out of our money instead of paying most of sorianos contract to DH for another team and then having to go out and get antother DH.

    • Dougy D

      I sure hope the DH doesn’t ever make it to the NL. The DH is a sham and takes away from the game itself. What I love most about baseball is that every single pitch and every single play have so much strategy involved. That is why it is the most intricate and misunderstood sport. The uneducated sports fans that don’t have a good comprehension of baseball are the ones that want the DH and more offense, because they don’t appreciate a good pitchers duel.

      Sorry Nick, not trying to take a shot at you at all. Just expressing my deep hatred of the DH. I also think that Selig said that there are no plans to add the DH to the NL.

      • Toosh

        Agreed. Also, in every AL-NL matchup the AL is at a disadvantage. At the AL park, the NL team gets to add a hitter. In the NL park, the AL team loses one of their hitters. To those that like the DH, how would feel if teams let their best 9 hitters just hit and their best 9 defensive players just play defense? The DH rule should be grandfathered out.