[The following post comes from BN user Oswego Chris, who is frequently supplying the BN Message Board with humor and insight. His latest effort takes a look at whether we might be overestimating Alfonso Soriano's plainly thin trade market. Given yesterday's David DeJesus signing, the subject of how the Cubs might trade Soriano takes on increasing relevance, and I thought Chris's post was worth a bump to the front page. Enjoy.]
Simple economics tells us that for us to trade Alfonso, there must be demand. Alfonso is the supply. Last year, at the age of 35, Alfonso supplied 26 HR’s and 88 RBI’s. That is pretty much where the good news ends. He also supplied a .244 avg, 2 stolen bases, a meager 27 walks, and 113 strikeouts. He did have a .759 OPS (not horrible), but the .289 OBP that was a part of that was pretty bad. His fielding percentage was .965, which was well below the league average for LF, .986. Range is very debatable with all sorts of new sabre-stats; but what is not debatable is his extreme fear of the left field wall.
Let’s now analyze the demand side. I am going to look at each team and gauge their interest based on a number of factors, on a scale from zero to five. Zero means no interest. Five means very high interest (of which I can forecast right now, there will be none). So, team by team, here we go:
THE ENTIRE NATIONAL LEAGUE – Interest level = 0. You could have argued for the Giants in a Zito for Sori swap, but after trading Jonathan Sanchez, no. These teams have seen him for the last 5 years in LF. OK, so realistically we have just eliminated 15 of the 30 teams, so now let’s turn to the AL….where someone must be able to use him as a DH…right?….right?….please?
BALTIMORE ORIOLES = 2. Ahhh, Jim Hendry’s old dumping grounds. Last year’s DH Vlad is a FA, but their OF is crowded and they have Chris Davis and other possibilities.
BOSTON RED SOX = 1. Highly, highly doubtful, but fill in your own Theo Compensation gag.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX = 1. Plagued with own bad contracts, might consider him for Adam Dunn.
CLEVELAND INDIANS = 0. Travis Hafner signed for 2 more years at DH.
DETROIT TIGERS = 0. Plenty of outfielders who can actually field, and Victor Martinez at DH.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS = 0. Just what a young rebuildinig team needs! No way….Butler and Hosmer have position filled.
LA ANGELS = 3. He would be an upgrade over Bobby Abreau, but lots of big money on books. Still, they need O-fence.
MINNESOTA TWINS = 0. Considering they get rid of guys (i.e. Delmon Young) for not playing the “Twins Way” (taking pitches, hitting behind runners, etc), I am sure they would love him.
NEW YORK YANKEES = 0. They didn’t want him when he was supposed to be good. Seriously though, too much offense already, no need.
OAKLAND A’S = 0. Did you read or see Moneyball? [Ed. - Eh, I could see the A's taking Soriano if they were paying just a couple million bucks. They're into exploiting inefficiencies, and perhaps near washed up vets who are rotting on the vine of a bloated contract are the next inefficiency.]
SEATTLE MARINERS = 3. Wow, I am learning from my own research. This an extremely offensively challenged team. If they don’t land Prince, they may be desperate.
TAMPA BAY RAYS = 1. Trying to resign Johnny Damon, highly doubt they would think about Sori.
TEXAS RANGERS = 0. They have offense coming out of their ears! Too many offensive guys to mention.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS = 1. Lind at 1B, Encarcion had a nice year at DH last year….don’t see it.
So, it’s actually better than I thought. 2 or 3 teams that might actually have interest! Feel free to berate me for my cynicism, but I think this is fairly accurate. Angels, Mariners, or Orioles … that’s about it.