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The big rumor on the Yu Darvish front yesterday came courtesy of a Sports Illustrated report, which cited Japanese officials who told SI that the winning bid exceeded the $51 million secured by the Seibu Lions in 2006 for the rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Given that the only piece of information that Darvish’s team does have is the number of the highest bid, it is plausible that this information is legit.

But who won the post?

There were reports this weekend that the Blue Jays had won the post with a “sky high” bid, but the reports acknowledged that the bids of other teams were not known. Most reports that actually offered a number pegged the Blue Jays’ bid at between $40 and $50 million, which conflicts with the suggestion that the bid was through the roof at the insistance of Jays’ ownership. It would also put the Jays’ bid short of the winning bid … if you believe that SI report. Other reports have the Rangers joining the Blue Jays as the only serious bidders (with the Yankees believing they lost, and either the Rangers or Blue Jays bidding “a ridiculous number”).

In short: if you believe any of these reports in whole, you’re doing so because you want to believe them. We simply do not have enough clear, reliable information to know anything for certain.

So where do the Cubs stand?

We still don’t have a great sense of just how much the Cubs bid, though a source indicated to me immediately after bidding closed that the Cubs felt good about their bid and “wouldn’t be surprised” if they won. But, if you listen to the national media on this one, the Cubs are a mere afterthought in the bidding process. Indeed, it sounds like everyone else “would be surprised” if the Cubs won – or if any team other than the Blue Jays or Rangers won, for that matter. The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo adds to the doubt that the Cubs made a serious bid, saying the Cubs made a “very low bid and have no illusions of winning the post.”

Once again: if you believe anything in this matter, it’s because you want to believe it, and that includes my own report. There is simply too much conflicting information coming from fairly reliable sources to be convinced of anything.

For my part, I think the Cubs did bid. I think the Cubs probably put in a bid they felt was competitive. I think other teams did the same. And we’ll find out who won very soon. That’s as far as I can go.

Remember: Darvish’s team has until 5pm ET tomorrow (Tuesday) to accept the highest bid, which they are expected to do. Once his team accepts, then MLB can announce the winner. This could happen at any time between now and then. Don Nomura, Darvish’s agent, however, tweeted this morning that his team is expected to announce their decision tomorrow “late morning” Japan time, which would be late tonight.

  • Bren

    Cafardo doesn’t seem to have much faith or anything positive to say about the Cubs this winter

  • http://cubbiekingdom.wordpress.com hansman1982

    I sure as hell don’t believe anything the Boston media reports about the Cubs, come to think of it, I generally tend to believe the opposite.

    I am sticking with the Cubs winning at $53M, which based on all the other reports does not seem far fetched at all.

  • http://bleachernation ferris

    im ok if we dont get him…….no one other than ichiro has been as good as advertised from over there……the posting fee alone will be more than you could sign jackson and maholm or saunders for………… wells…soto..byrd…zambrano and cash…sori and alot of cash…marmol….smaradjiza are all trading pieces to retool and we could keep garza although hed bring back the most of course….(the cubs sign dejesus for 5 m per replacing 13m fukudome=8m,stewart after arb. will be another 10mil less at least than aramis=18m……..pena 10m off the books=28mil. so if you trade zam. and pay 14m of 18m thats another 4mil=32mil,byrd trade is another plus 5mil=37mil)……….so we def. have the money to get fielder and the pieces to get a better and add to the farm system…m2c

  • scottie

    for whats its worth.. i had a dream last night the cubs won with a $61M bid..

  • john

    Actually in keeping with the Ace concept the bid would be 60,181,818

  • john

    “Getting Wood might be Hard” nothing a little blue pill and a winning bid wouldn’t take care of

  • Cheryl

    Calfedo seems to be the only source for saying the cubs did not win. But we still don’t know if they did win.

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      Other sources ignore the Cubs altogether. As I said this weekend: I would set your phasers to “probably not going to be the Cubs.”

      • CubFan Paul

        “probably not going to be the Cubs.” -even with what your source told you, your setting your phaser on non lethal? couple your source with the “sky high”/record bid I’d say the cubs are still in it because i dont see why theo&co. wouldn’t submit a bid for less than $51.2Million ..i tend to believe your source(s)

        the only thing that sucks about winning the bid for darvish is that: it’ll be hard to buy out Soriano after Theo had Ricketts write a check for the record bid on darvish ..but if we get darvish and ricketts pays $40-$54Million to make Soriano go away then i’ll be a believe/start drinking the kool-aid

  • Bluekoolaidaholic

    I guess I don’t care either way.
    On the one hand, he could contribute a lot, but on the other we could save the money and be able to put several more pieces of the puzzle together.
    I feel the same way about The Greedy Prince.

  • CubsFanatic

    Lets not lose all hope guys. He could just not sign with the team and still sign with us.

    • Toosh

      That’s not the way it works. Darvish can only negotiate with the team that placed the highest bid. If the 2 sides can’t agree, he goes back to Nippon.

  • RoughRiider

    I hope the Cubs did not win the bid. It’s rediculous to spend 50 + million just to have the right to negotiate for a player who has never ever pitched in an American Major League baseball league. Japans Major league is probably comperable to AAA with some exceptions.
    Having said that, I don’t believe that the Cubs would have made a bid unless it was a serious bid. If not, what’s the point ?

    • http://www.frenchrocks.net Ian Afterbirth

      I agree – 3 years from now we’ll be glad we didn’t get him. Of course there’s the, oh say, 1 in 5 chance we’ll regret it but I just don’t like these long odds with big penalties for being wrong.

      • Jim

        The culture hasn’t changed yet, it’s still the Cubs so it’s probably 1 in 2 that we’ll regret it.

    • Kyle

      I’d pay $120 million in total for a AAA pitcher his age with his stats and stuff. I wouldn’t even think twice about it.

      • Jim

        I would too. I think he is at a higher level than DiceK.
        I’d like to see the Cubs gently ease him into the 5 man rotation and not rely on him to be the ace, at least for a couple seasons while this team is re-tooled and ready to make a run.

  • john

    Darvish meter Fans like? 51% Fans hate? 15% Fans like but spent too much? 34%

  • chad

    hey, now supposedly olney says texas COULD be the highest bidder. this is a joke.

    • Lou

      Yeah, let’s just move on with this, shall we? IF David Kaplan’s correct about Cubs not getting Fielder, then they’re not getting Darvish either. In other news, Barney’s going to be our clean-up hitter. Just kidding.

  • chad

    at this rate soriano will be our cleanup hitter as we will have an offense that will be offensive without any power. and theo thinks cub fans will be patient.

    • Lou

      Well, Theo currently has nothing to lose by saying that. But I agree–I’d like to see the run differential of this team as current constructed by the end of the season.

  • Toosh

    Since Japan is 15 hours ahead of Chicago, if the news doesn’t go the Cubs’ way maybe they could pass along tonight’s winning lottery numbers.

    • BetterNews

      How are they ahead of Chicago?

      • ferrets_bueller

        umm…….

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      Ha.

      • Toosh

        Brett got it.

        • BetterNews

          You got nothing but plaque between the teeth.

  • ferrets_bueller

    I still think the Cubs are going to get Darvish.  Hopefully, the winner gets announced BEFORE I go to bed to get up for work at 5AM….come on.  Hurrrrrrry up! hahaha.

  • Toosh

    Have you been talking with my dental hygienist?

  • Oswego Chris

    Pretty pathetic…just refreshing MLB trade rumors for Darvish announcement….

    • Toosh

      Could be worse. Coco Crisp might be the Cards’ lead-off man next season.

      • chad

        again more talk and no action(crisp) from this new regime. i think it is in their plans to talk to every frickin free agent and then let other teams sign them because they have no plan. oops we signed dejesus(this will get us to the playoffs). we heard they were going to go heavy into the international market-which means not a great bid on darvish and the cepedes(sp) kid will wind up somewhere else as well.

    • ferrets_bueller

      I keep switching back between that and twitter…lmao.  I should be sleeping instead.

  • Cheryl

    If the cubs win Darvish and no one has really said they might, is it to their advantage to not let anything slip out even if they know they’ve won? Just wondering.

    • Toosh

      The Fighters will announce the winning bid and team.

      • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

        I think they announce whether they’ve accepted, and maybe the bid amount. I think MLB announces the team.

        • Toosh

          That’s right. MLBTR just corrected themselves.

  • oswego chris

    Just did some research on the “posting system” for Japanese players….it’s pretty bad for the Japansese players, and MLB teams….great for Japanese teams…26 million to negotiate with Kei Igawa a couple of years ago….MLB owners should band together to break this system…but, they can’t help themselves….

    • MoneyBoy

      Chris – the latest Seligdorf plan is for an international draft … the ONLY thing that might be good in that plan is the elimination of this ridiculous “posting fee” fiasco.

      ::smirk:: as to MLB owners banding together … one word “collusion” … which, collectively, has cost them millions.

  • Brian

    Just browsing some Japanese baseball sites and one guy says he is not going to eat any Nippon Ham product, if they delay this any longer. Thought it was funny!

  • http://cubbiekingdom.wordpress.com hansman1982

    The worst part…we could be sitting here until 1:00 AM Cubbie Time waiting for the results.

  • Cheryl

    Yu may be good i Japan. But is it worth all this? Chris is right. Something should be done about this posting system.

  • ferrets_bueller

    They need to stop fighting cold cuts and announce this, damnit! I’m going to bed.

  • J.B. House

    If only the winning team gets to deal with the player what would keep a team from bidding high then low balling the player and telling the japan team you ll have to kick some of the posting money back in to get this deal done or next year he will leave as a free agent and you will get nothing

    • NyN

      I wondered what was stopping a team like the Cubs from bidding high and then just not signing him in order to take him off the market for the year. It would have only increased the desire for top of the rotation types (i.e. Matt Garza) via trade.

  • Matt

    Sounds like the Rangers won. Doh.

  • kernzee

    According to Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York , both the cubs and yankees bid less than 20 million for Darvish . If that is true , it seems unlikely we will see any major expenditrures designed to immediately impact the current talent level of the roster . Trading Garza , Marshall , Soto and Byrd for prospects , and going after Soler and Concepcion is looking more and more like the plan in place.

  • chad

    MAYBE IT’S TRUE THE CUBS DON’T HAVE MONEY AS THEY SUPPOSEDLY BID LESS THAN $20 MILLION

    • Martin

      Source?

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