It seems strange how tightly guarded the identities of the prospects potentially included in the Cubs/Reds Marshall/Wood deal are, no?
Usually, if deals are consummated pending physicals, the players’ names still make the news. Whether that’s by way of a leak or an official announcement, it’s common. In fact, it’s hard to remember a time in recent memory where a trade was believed to be completed pending physicals, openly discussed as a done deal in the media, two of the players are named, but one or two of the pieces are totally obscured from even the slightest of credible rumors. (This is, of course, different from when the players are explicitly unknown, in the form of Players to Be Named Later.)
So what could be different this time? Sure, maybe it’s just that Theo and Jed are more tight-lipped than any other front office. But is Walt Jocketty?
I’ll concede: it’s probably just that.
But, I can’t help myself. I’m curious by nature.
So, I started circulating a theory on Twitter this afternoon (and it’s just a theory – I haven’t “heard” anything): what if the reason the prospects’ names haven’t come out yet is because they haven’t been agreed on yet? To wit: what if the Reds have been given a window to work out an extension with Marshall (who is under contract for this year only, and would be more valuable to the Reds if they knew they had him locked up for longer), and the value of the prospects the Cubs will get in return is dependent on that extension?
Well, no sooner than I started floating the idea, I found an article from a couple hours ago in which a Cincinnati writer speculates that an extension is being discussed. His theory is that Marshall, unlike Mat Latos, is being flown into Cincinnati for a physical today. That suggests something is different in this deal than the Latos deal (I could argue it could be a specific health concern, but, hey, I’m just sayin’), and the writer, John Fay, believes it could be that an extension is in place, and the Reds just want to make sure Marshall is in perfect health before signing off.
Thoughts? Am I wrong that this level of secrecy is unusual? Is it plausible that the Cubs could get a better return if Marshall agrees to an extension?
yeah could be a better return.
Any dollar amount guesses on how much said extension might be worth? I’m curious.
Given Marshall’s numbers, I can’t see him giving up free agency for less than … $6 to $7 million per year, at a minimum, right? I’m just speculating.
I’d say 3yrs/25M is what he will want (and might be why the Cubs wanted to let him go) he is an elite left handed reliever and if he replicates last year in Cincy he’ll want to get paid. Wasn’t Grabows deal for 7M a year?
No, it was an extension for two years and $7 mill total, I believe. Obviously Marshall is vastly superior now than Grabow was then.
And hence he should be able to get 3+yrs and 8/9M per year, another wonderful precedent from the Hendry era.
I know that’s what I’d be asking for, given what Papelbon got. Should Marshall really get so much less because he isn’t a “closer”? Because, on my team, Marshall could close any day.
This could be where the Reds really get some value if they are able to extend him to a two-year, $12 million deal. Think of it from Marshall’s perspective: he’s made only about $5 million or so in his career (including 2012), and hasn’t had a big payday yet. A guaranteed $12 million would be pretty attractive.
That’s the funny thing about the “closer” title – Marshall is probably better than 70% of the closers in MLB, yet their perceived value, and paychecks are higher because they were annointed with that meaningless title.
2 years $7 mil for Grabow I believe
But Grabow was top, top shelf. Marshall is just top shelf
. I thought Grabow was around $4-$5 but can’t remember. It’s kind of like not remembering certain details of the car crash that you were just in.
I could see 3/25 and still think he would have surplus value (Marshall, not Grabow).
I really hope Marshall gets that 3/$25. One of my favorite Cubs, one of the longest tenured guys to be around during the time I really started to understand the intricacies of the game. BUT, I would not want the Cubs to give him that kind of deal.
Agree – he needs to go to a club that can utilize him right now to help them win in October.
Saw something about Daniel Corcino…Could be BS, but seems good to me. In regards to extension for Marshall, could be a good deal if he get’s paid, if he does, the prospects should be stronger in my opinion. If not, Corcino would make sense and PTBN.
Corcino, to me, looks like a much better prospect than I was originally expecting. I’d be thrilled if he were included.
Call it slightly more than a hunch, but I don’t think the names are going to be typicla fillers. At least one of them won’t be.
I am increasingly believing that.
I think I was/am keeping my expectations artificially low. Don’t want to be disappointed, since I already like Wood.
I don’t see the theory being valid. Unfortunately, I am not a writer and therefore not able to articulate just why.
Ha. Love it.
I should say, obviously, the extension window thing is not unheard of. Mets got one with Santana, and I believe the return was very, very contingent on getting an extension done.
This is Oliver Stone shoeshine and hooha, Taylor…
But…makes for an interesting contemplation. A verrrry interesting contemplation.
Back, and to the left.
Back.
And to the left.
The reason we haven’t heard of these prospects is because they don’t actually exist – at all. They are pure fictions who we will flip as compensation to the Red Sox for Theo. Since I don’t have a twitter account, I am starting this rumor here to see where it goes.
AA RHP, John Galt.
That man has the world on his shoulders.
edit: I just realized that the correct response here would be “Who is John Galt!?!?” T’would have been an awesome joke had i stumbled into that. Curses.
Blew it, dude. Blew it.
Who is John Galt is a guild on my server. Where the hell did that come from anyway?
Ayn Rand fanboyz. See m’yah.
A name I’m tired of hearing.
Marshall just had his best year in his career. I don’t see Marshall beating out his numbers he produced in 2011. So, his value is as high as it could be. Which means, he’ll be getting a big contract if he signs an extension. Wouldn’t his value be less if he signed a big contract? I would think so. The only way Marshall can become a better pitcher by becoming a starter (which most likely won’t happen) or becoming a closer. I can see Marshall becoming a closer and an effective one.
Good use on the legalese to wit: to wit.
Thanks. I try to use it only sparingly …
I personally think that Theo just wants to see how many trades he can actually have pending at once.
Theo for ….players to be named later
Hoyer for….players to be named later
Marshall for…..players to be named later
Depending on how you look at it, The Cubs could be gaining or losing prospects….but we’ll never know!
I think you might be on to something. On a couple of occasions I have actually let myself believe thd Padres and Sox owed US a prospect. Must be some sort of a Jedstein mind trick.
Well are there any cincy prospects that the padres want? Maybe theojed are figuring that out first?
That’s what many folks think.
Are there any Reds prospects that the Padres dont have? I think the Latos trade netted them anything and everything they wanted
Here’s a point to make… Will wood and prospects be better than two high draft picks we would’ve gotten had we offered Marshall one year 11-12 mill? Would he have accepted that? Gah! My brain!
I’d be willing to bet a large sum of money that he would have accepted that offer. Marshall would not have netted a large draft pick return.
We wouldn’t have gotten any draft compensation. We’d have gotten Marshall on a one-year, $12 million deal.
*Probably.* But not guaranteed that he’d accept. Maybe he becomes a closer in 2012. Maybe he’s dominant. Maybe he’s expected to get 3/$27M on the market.
Oh man think of this situation… Reds win world series because marshal posted a 0.0 ERA entire post season then declines one year contract reds get two draft picks one of the picks wins MVP and the other wins CYYoung and wood has tommy John surgery middle of this year and the “prospect” we got tests positive for not only PEDs but is found smuggling heroin throughout Chicago… Damn…
Ummm are you a Reds fan?
Nah dude. Just an external pessimist (spelling)
eternal. Damn phone
I’ll bet you a dollar that not all of those things happen
Ok, I will take the Reds winning the WS as being the one thing that doesn’t happen.
I like this rumor, as well as the rumors of rumors. I think I’m going to go listen to Rumours.
If we only had Neifi Perez to trade them we could of had half of their farm system… …
Haha
If I were the Reds, I’d offer him an extension for two or three years. Then, if he accepts, the prospects should be top drawer.
Hey Brett, any chance u think the Reds will give up Billy Hamilton? We could use an upgrade at 2B and the kid has some serious speed. I know its prob wishful thinking to get one of their top prospects left but that would be a sweet deal for the Cubs.
It would be nice, but no. Just can’t see it.
Wouldn’t sign & trade accomplish the same thing?
There’s no need for that in MLB. The Reds would be getting Marshall, they negotiate the extension.
Additionally, I thought that there was a period of time in which a player could not be traded after signing a contract, 45 days or so?
Not sure if that applies to extensions (if it does, Danks is definitely off the market).
There’s not really any such thing as that in MLB. That’s purely an NBA phenomenon.
JUAN FRANCISCO!!!!
Plz let me Juan Francisco!!!
Let it be Juan Francisco… Lol!!!
Not quite sure I understand this Francisco fetish. He K’s too much and doesn’t walk at all. The chances of him becoming a full-time regular, let alone an impact regular, is questioable at this point.
Alright dude three times is enough. Its starting to get weird.
Yea gives us billy hamilton and wood for marshall and that would be a good trade, Hamilton had like 100 sb last year
Santana also had NoTrade and the deal was contingent on his okay if I recall.
You’re right.
With the additions a few teams made so far I get the feeling is the Price of Poker just went up and teams have to circle the wagons
Fellas it’s becuz my stupid I pad with spell check hate it… Juan Francisco has unbelievable power hit the longest ball out of great American ball park!!! His defense is great along with offence! He would fix the Cubs 3rd base problem for years to come!!!
Can anyone remember a time when there were more trades left open with only the supposed “parameters of the deal” in place and the actual pieces being kept secret?
Theo seems to be flying by the seat of his pants with deals. I hope that in this case we are pleasantly surprised.
Say goodbye to Marmol
Got a friend in Cinci who saya Zack coast and lailaka are the additional pieces coming to the cubs
Cozart and Lailaka Ss 3b I think they have a chance to start. Which mean Stewart rides the pine our they going to improve him enough to trade. For prospects.
How does ur friend know this?
If this is true, Cozart could be interesting as a 2B with some pop and some baserunning ability or as a 3B although his bat looks better in the middle infield. He was a top 10 Reds’ prospect last year by BA, Goldstein and Sickels. Valaika seems unexciting. Both are likely to compete for the major league roster next year.
These guys both hit right handed play the same positions and are the same age. I wonder if there is a couple of infielders and a couple of pitchers like who were rumored earlier and we get to pick one of each. That would explain the wait. I vote Cozart and Ames.