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Consider this your final prep for the 2012 MLB Draft, which kicks off this evening at 6pm CT with the first round and then the supplemental first round. In case you missed the three primer posts, which should help you get properly stoked and knowledge’d up for tonight’s first round, here they are: (1) Whom Might the Cubs Select?, (2) What Are the Draft Logistics?, and (3) What Has Changed in the Draft Thanks to the New CBA?

We’ll have a live Draft post up at 5pm CT, so you can start offering your pre-Draft thoughts, and then follow along tonight. It has, historically, been a fun post/thread to participate in.

Everyone has said the same thing about this Draft, and, for the most part, they’re right: the Cubs can’t afford to blow this Draft. Without the ability to paper over mistakes by shelling out a ton of money to sign whomever you’d like, teams have to make the right picks, especially at the top of the Draft. And, with a farm system lacking in impact talent after years of drafting well-rounded, high floor (as in: likely to be good enough to make the Majors, but not good enough to be a guy you care much about) types, the Cubs need to hit some home runs in this one. And it starts tonight with picks number 6, 43, and 56.

As the appointed hour approaches, there are a number of bits to share:

  • The Cubs’ top dogs have been completely buried in Draft studies for as much as a month, but now they’re in total lockdown, says Dale Sveum (from the Tribune): “They’re in lockdown right now. There’s a lot going on in their life right now. It’s just one of those things where you’re in situations, any organization, you want that to be the right pick. In the second round, we want to find those diamonds in the rough. There’s a lot that goes into that draft that people can’t even fathom, to make sure you find the players that can impact the big league team.”
  • Kevin Goldstein updated his mock draft this morning, and still has the Cubs taking high school outfielder Albert Almora, even where Mike Zunino and Kyle Zimmer are still on the board. Here’s his take on the Cubs selecting Almora: “There’s really no other names attached to the Cubs at this point. The presence of Correa could create a difficult decision, and there might be some interest in Fried, but they clearly prefer the high school position players.”
  • Jim Bowden reported on Twitter yesterday that the Astros were going to take Mark Appel first, but other mocks have them still considering Byron Buxton. And Jim Callis even went so far as to say that the Astros are also still considering guys like Carlos Correa and even Albert Almora at the top. Needless to say, if the Astros pick anyone but Appel or Buxton, it will be a huge surprise.
  • As for picks falling, if you’re a Correa fan, you want the Mariners to take Zunino or a surprise. If that happens, it’s possible that the Orioles take Kevin Gausman, the Royals take Kyle Zimmer or Max Fried, and then Correa is still there for the Cubs.
  • dob2812

    Correa sounds like the better shout from this vantage point (I hear “patience at the plate” included in the scouting report for a high school guy and I want, want, want) but there’s obviously much more information available inside the draft room. All these guys are so far away that I’m happy to trust Jed and Theo. There’s really no point in making snap judgements on this thing unless they pull a Hayden Simpson out of the bag.

    And I’m sure that won’t happen, right? Right?

    That said, I am glad to hear they’re focusing on position players with the first pick. I know people will say that: “Oh but the top three players in the farm are everyday guys; where are the arms?” But the upside on the college pitchers in this pool seems severely limited. Correa and Almora seem like much better risks to take.

    • EvenBetterNewsV2.0

      Correa has a scouting report that reads like Alex Rodriguez did coming out of high school. I would personally prefer him over Almora, but wouldn’t be disappointed either way. I think Fried will be the one we end up regretting not getting. How often can you find skilled LHP with upside out of high school at the top of a draft? Just my opinion, but I would prefer him. At the same time we don’t have 85% of the information Jed and Theo have. That is why it is easy to speculate.

  • terencemann

    can someone re-post where the cubs pick in the supplemental round?

    • Brian

      Read above, 3rd para., last sentence.

  • Cubs Dude

    Brett, would you take Zimmer over Correa and Almora if all 3 were there? I saw reports over Zimmer’s velocity being down recently.

    • Gabriel

      I’m not Brett but I would not take a pitcher over Correa/Almora if at least one of them is there:

      1. Correa
      2. Almora
      3. Giolito (might as well go for the huge upside if Correa and Almora are gone)

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      I’d be very tempted. But if I had Jason McLeod in my ear saying “dude, take Correa,” I’d probably listen.

  • cubsin

    Cubs picks: #6, #43 (for ARam), #56 (for C. Pena), #67, #101, #134, then every 30th pick through round 40.

  • Kyle

    I really don’t think Correa is going to fall. I do think Zunino is going to fall, past the Cubs and further. Read in a few places that MLB teams are a lot less impressed with him than the media.

    I’m pretty sold on Almora at this point. He definitely seems like an Epstein type of pick. He’s a young 18, he’s been playing elite competition for quite some time, and he’s considered a high floor guy with good makeup. What little I can divine about organizational drafting philosophy is that they really, really value success rates. They want to be “less wrong” as they put it, and get lots of guys from the drafts into the majors while still going for impact talent. Almora fits that profile. He’s the one guy in the draft you can say is both high-upside and high-floor. He’s a more athletic Brett Jackson with a hit tool. He projects to be able to hit, and even if he flounders his defense in CF is a great failsafe.

    More draft history fun:

    From 2003 to 2008, the Red Sox drafted four outfielders in the first round. Three of the four made it to the majors: Matt Murton, Jed Lowrie and David Murphy. The fourth was Jason Place, the No. 27 pick in 2007. That’s a pretty impressive hit rate.

    • JulioZuleta

      There’s this one other guy too. I think his name is Jacoby Ellsbury or something like that. I think he’s supposed to be pretty decent.

      • Kyle

        Herp derp. Had him included, then I reworded some things and he mysteriously (read: incompetently) disappeared from the rewrite.

        • JulioZuleta

          Their draft history is absurd. In 2005 they had 5 picks in the 1st round/comp round. Four are in the major leagues. They draft Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Buchholz the same year.

          Even more insane, in 2007 they drafted these two guys…Anthony Rizzo and Will Middlebrooks in the 5th and 6th rounds. The Cubs havent drafted two guys that good in the last 10 years, and the Sox drafted both in the 5th and 6th round of the same draft.

          As an aside to everyone, if the draft gives you anxiety, you aren’t alone. As Cubs fans we have been programmed to get pumped about are picks and then see them become absolute garbage. If you want to settles your nerves, http://mlb.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=bos&year=2007
          Red Sox draft history.

          • Kyle

            The Baseball Reference draft page for the Red Sox are my Theoporn.

            I’m not ready to say it’s 100% certain that he can replicate that success in Chicago with new rules and a new organization. But if he can, and he can unleash an AL East quality team on a decidedly not-AL East-quality division…

          • JulioZuleta

            Starting in 2003 (Theo’s first draft):
            2003: Papelbon
            2004: Pedroia
            2005: Buchholz Ellsbury Lowrie
            2006: Bard
            2007 (no pick in the 1st round, (2 comp picks)): Hagadone, Middlebrooks Rizzo

            Too early to judge the rest, but they look pretty damn solid. Also, these drafts have included several guys they have used to trade for stars. Seeing that makes me furious for the past (Wilken isn’t what he used to be) and excited for the future.

  • http://bleachernation.com lou brock lives

    I’m not a White Sox fan but it seems everyone wants to blame the Reinsdorf/Selig connection for the new CBA spending reduction on draft picks. But when I look at the Sox roster I see why they would want the playing field balanced. They have success without overspending & making huge mistakes.
    They have Mark Sale , Addison Reed, & Beckham from the last 5 drafts. What do the Cubs have ON THE FIELD from those drafts ? Also the Sox have done well on their spending for Cuban players with Viciedo & Alexi Ramirez without breaking the bank.
    The Cubs should take the best college LHP starter for Oklahoma State Andrew Heaney with the 6th pick , Ramsey OF from Florida State with # 43, Plawecki C from Purdue at # 56,
    Heyer RHP from Arizona # 68, & Stripling RHP from Texas A & M at # 102. Go with COLLEGE proven kids – from BIG programs – the teaching & durability has been tested.

    • DocPeterWimsey

      “hey have success without overspending & making huge mistakes.”

      No, the ChiSox have not had success at acquiring amateur players.  The ChiSox farm system is universally (or near as no matter) considered the worst in baseball, and most people think that there is not even debate as to whether it’s the worst as opposed to just one of the worst.  Their farm talent at the MLB level is generally considered mediocre: really, Sale & Reed are the only two worth discussing.

      The ChiSox have been unilaterally playing by the new CBA rules all along: Reinsdorf does not want to spend money on guys who are not known to produce at the MLB level, and if the amateurs do not like what he is offering, then they can go play another sport as far as he is concerned.

      • Dave

        I’m a Cub fan but let’s be realistic. While the Cubs farm system may be rated higher I don’t see how anyone can argue that the Sox don’t have more young talent making major contributions at the major league level.

        • Kyle

          White Sox: Three players 26 or younger in the lineup, 1 in the rotation.

          Cubs: Same

          I’m not seeing the difference. And that’s with the Cubs intentionally keeping some of their best young talent down to save on service time.

          • hansman1982

            How about this, let’s ask the same question on August 1.

        • DocPeterWimsey

          One, a farm system can be highly unproductive and still be more more productive than the Cubs system has been.  Reinsdorf isn’t interested in dragging the Cubs down to his level so much as he is interested in dragging down the successful farm systems (Sox, Giants, Dodgers) to his level.  If you would like to see the ChiSox ineptitude, look here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/building-through-the-draft-worst-of-the-worst/

          Two, I would take the Cubs farmhands from the last several years over the ChiSox.  Beckham had the worst OPS of any starting 2nd baseman last year: much as we complain about Barney being below average, Beckam was over half as far below Barney as Barney was below the mean in 2011.  Ramirez is a flashy SS, but Castro’s OPS dwarfed AlRam’s substantially.  Viciendo is having a nice run, completely comparable to Colvin’s run 2 years ago: and I put about as much stock in that.  And you can point out as many productive Cubs pitchers over the last few years as you can ChiSox pitchers.  Soto has been up and down, but the last ChiSox farmhand catcher to do anything was probably Ron Karkovice.

          Three, and my original point: the ChiSox farm system is the worst in baseball.  They lack both impact players and depth.  The big reason for this is that they will not invest money at the amateur level.  In essence, they have been playing by the rules of the new CBA all along.

    • Kyle

      “What do the Cubs have ON THE FIELD from those drafts ? ”

      Darwin Barney, who is having a better season than any of the players you listed. Possibly better than all three combined.

      • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

        Casey Coleman and Tony Campana.

        Cashner brought back Rizzo, so as soon as he is up I think we can count him.

        • JulioZuleta

          That’s gross.

      • Joker

        Actually, I think Sale is having the best year. I’d trade Barney for him in a heartbeat if the Sox were crazy enough to take the offer.

        • Andy

          Genius

    • Kyle

      Also, if they are having success not overspending, why would they want to discourage the other teams from making mistakes? If they were drafting well on the cheap, the last thing they would want is to encourage other teams to spend at their level and stop wasting money.

    • Cubs Dude

      Lou, just because they have Sale and Reed doesn’t mean they know what they are doing in drafting. Google farm system rankings and you see the White Sox at the bottom on every list. Reinsdorf was absolutely pissed teams figured out a way to build a strong farm system, and he didn’t like it so got in his boy’s ear.

      • DocPeterWimsey

        What is telling is just how much of a consensus there is about the ChiSox having the worst system.  “Worst” is like “Best”: we usually can agree about who the contenders are, but there is always some difference in opinion based on subjective criteria (I prefer pitching, you prefer slugging, he prefers OBP).  Excelling in everything is tough.  Similarly, stinking in everything is tough, too. However, the people who disagree about whether the Pads, Royals or some other team have the best farm system all seem to agree that the ChiSox have the worst!

  • cubfanincardinalland

    They make for interesting reading, but I think these guys like Goldstein who speak as though they know what teams are thinking are full of it. He says the Cubs prefer the high school position players. Dale Sveum said yesterday that the front office was in lock down mode and he really hadn’t been talking with them. So they don’t have the time to talk with the manager, but they are in communication with a blogger about who they are going to take. Right.

    • Cedlandrum

      I haven’t read anything that Goldstein has said that he knows for sure what the Cubs are doing. I have read where he has said, “people believe…x,y,z.” He is giving an opinion and I don’t think he is claiming anything different.

  • Cheryl

    Somewhere along the line they’ll have to draft catchers. Almora seems to be the consensus among many but if Zunino fell far enough I’d take him. I think he’s a college junior so probably could be in the majors in three years.

  • Myles

    Here’s my unqualified analysis (very basic).

    Take HS position players that walk above all else, for hitting. Everything else is developable, and the younger they are, they more likely it is they will develop the physical parts of the game.

    Take college players that don’t walk people above all else, for pitching. Pitchers are time bombs, so draft those that will spend as little time in the minors as possible (close to Major-ready).

    For the 6th pick, that means I would definitely steer clear of Fried/Giolito (I wouldn’t dare draft Giolito, just too risky)

    Almora was born on April 4, 1994, which makes him 18 years 60 days. That’s pretty great.
    Correa was born on September 22, 1994, which makes him 17 years 255 days. That’s insane.

    I’d love Correa to be there, but he probably won’t.

    • hansman1982

      The problem with drafting college pitchers is that they have had 2-3-4 years of pitching for a coach that doesn’t care about their future or if they rack up 150 pitches per start. If you can get them into your minor leagues before they go to college then you can control innings and pitch counts for those years and reduce the liklihood of injury.

    • Noah

      There are a couple problems with looking for high schoolers that walk: (1) your really top of the draft type talents are typically men among boys at the high school level. They are just so much better than everyone else that they really don’t even need to show any sort of real plate discipline to destroy the competition. And (2) even elite high school pitchers do not have very good control compared to professional pitchers. For example, Max Fried walked 33 hitters in 66 innings this season. And Fried is almost certainly going to be a top 15 pick.

      From what I’ve read, it’s just that whether someone draws walks or not in high school just is not indicative of their ability to do so in professional ball or if they will be able to be a succesful MLB player.

  • Ben

    Luke or whoever else might know this how does Almora’s power rate on the 20-80 and do you think he would be a higher ranked prospect that the famed Soler if somehow Cubs landed both?

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      I asked Goldstein the Almora versus Soler question a little while ago on Twitter, and he said Soler by a hair.

      • http://www.viewfromthebleachers.com Norm

        For Almora’s power, think 55-60 ceiling on the 20-80 scale

      • Ben

        Thank you….I know Goldstein likes Correa #1 overall….I wonder if it is a case of Cubs wanting Almora more or if they just know Correa will be gone…..I guess that pick though is not as important as the next 3…..that is where you separate the good GM’s from the Hendrys

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

      I’ve seen Almora’s power rated at 50 and 60.  By comparison, Correa is probably a 70, and Soler an 80 at least a 70.

      Brett asked Goldstein about the Almora vs. Soler comparison on Twitter this morning.  He took “Soler by a nose.”

      • Kyle

        Do scouts really put Soler at 80 power?

        Scouts tend to be *really* conservative about giving out 80s.

        • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

          My memory might be off, but I”m pretty I’ve seen him rated that high.  Give me a bit and I’ll see if I can find a link to confirm that.

          Edit: I’ve only found one set of grades on Soler so far, and it had him at 70.  I did see one that had Cespedes at 80, though.  That might be who I was thinking of.

          • Kyle

            Scouts’ grades tend to be a bit lower than fan/website grades. Usually a full grade (10 points) lower.

            If a scout says a guy has 80 power, they are saying the kid has literally the best power they’ve ever seen or are likely to ever see.

            • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

              Bryce Harper, in other words.

              • chirogerg

                no, more like mike….Giancarlo Stanton

      • Deer

        was it a nose or a hair? Hairs inside one’s nose? laugh if you want, but it matters with a high draft pick.

  • Cheryl

    Luke, Would you say 90 percent of the current cubs woud be gone in three years? If so, they are going to move pretty rapidly in replacing those cubs by draft and trades. The new rules don’t allow trading of players for draft picks do they? I know draft picks for draft picks can be traded.

  • yield51

    From what I have been hearing, this draft class is void of big time impact players. I would be happy if the Cubs drafted Giolito and offered him something around 75% of the suggested slot citing his injury as reason for lowball. If he signs the Cubs saved some money from their pool, and have probably the highest upside player out of this years draft. If he doesn’t sign the Cubs would have a probable top 3 pick next year, and another pick at 7. With any luck next years class will be loaded with high impact players at the top.

  • BD

    How about this for Cubs’ 3 picks….

    #6 = Albert Almora
    #43 = Alex Wood
    #56 = Jake Barrett

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

      I’d take it.

    • chirogerg

      How about Walker Weichel (or however you spell it) at 43

      • BD

        I am not a huge fan of his, although I wouldn’t be disappointed to get him. Also, I don’t know if he will slip that far.

  • Ben

    I would be disappointed with Zunino but I doubt he is the pick….I have watched him play 5 or 6 times and he often looks over-matched against decent SEC pitching

  • DocPeterWimsey

    How teams will handle the new CBA has been subject to much speculation.  MLB rumors suggest that Philadelphia intends to spend all of its $$$ on the first 10 picks.  If so, then they’ll effectively punt 30 guys to lock up their 10 preferred ones.

    That is, of course, a rumor, but it seems plausible that at least one team would try something like that.

    • Noah

      I don’t see how that makes any sense. My understanding is that the draft spending cap is solely allocated based upon the number of picks you have in the first ten rounds. In other words, whatever dollars the Cubs are given is solely for their top 12 picks (one each for rounds 1-10 and the two supplemental round picks). For the remaining thirty rounds the only way that cap gets involved is if you go over slot. If you go over slot then whatever amount is over slot gets added to the amount spent to determine if the team will face any taxes or other punishment under the CBA. But if you sign for slot or under, no impact.

      In other words, I expect the Phillies are actually saying they intend to use their full slot values in the first ten rounds, then only pick guys who will sign for slot value afterwards.

      • DocPeterWimsey

        Oh, I probably misunderstood: I did not remember the 10 round aspect of the pool.  They reported that the Phils were going to spend all of their money, and they probably meant that they would spend X of the X dollars that they had available.  (After all, you don’t have to spend it all.)

        People do think that agents like Boras are going to try to convince teams that their players are worth over-slotting and encourage them to essentially non-tender other draft picks to afford theirs.  I had thought that this was thinking along those lines.

        • Noah

          The problem with that philosophy is that, if you don’t sign a player, you lose the draft cap space. So if slot for the 7th through 10th rounds are all $250K, I can’t just not sign my 8th-10th rounders and give $1 million to the 7th rounder. I just lose the ability to spend that money.

          What agents like Boras might be trying to do is say you should sign my guy for overslot then draft 9 other guys who will sign for way under slot… but that sounds like a terrible way to run a team.

          • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

            Terrible way to run a team?

            The White Sox are going to love that plan.

          • DocPeterWimsey

            “What agents like Boras might be trying to do is say you should sign my guy for overslot then draft 9 other guys who will sign for way under slot…”

            The problem is that this means that the team has to negotiate while they are drafting.  However, negotiations will happen after the draft.

             

            Luke: are those two statements exclusive?

  • http://bleachernation.com lou brock lives

    Darwin Barney is better than Sale – the AL pitcher of the month for May ? PLEASE !!!!
    And high level programs in college do not overwork their prize pitching recruits or that info would be used against them when they try to sign highly touted high school pitchers.
    Check the records the last 5 to 10 drafts & see if the better starting pitchers are coming from colleges or high schools – Lincecum , Strasburg etc.

    • Noah

      I’d disagree with the statement that Barney is better than Sale, but on the other point:

      The following pitchers currently in the top 20 this season in fWAR who were drafted out of high school: Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy, Jaime Garcia*, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, CC Sabathia

      Drafted out of college: Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, James McDonald, Stephen Strasburg, Dan Haren, Jered Weaver, Jeff Samardzija, David Price,

      International Signing: Anibal Sanchez, Johan Santana

      Jaime Garcia is astericked because he was initially drafted in ’04 out of high school, did not sign, but then was picked again in the ’05 draft and signed without going to college.

      But, for the short version, of those 20 pitchers, 10 were drafted out of high school, 8 were drafted out of college and 2 were international signings. The real lesson is that, for pitchers, whether someone played in college or not probably isn’t the best indicator of success, and whoever is the best talent, independent of if it is a high school or college player, should be the player taken.

      • DocPeterWimsey

        Also, several of those “college” pitchers were drafted as HS players, too: the Cubs drafted Lincecum out of HS, for example.  They were low-level picks to be certain, but they all could have been HS success stories, too.

        As for Barney vs. Sale, that’s a bit of a silly comparison: position players compare poorly to pitchers.  Barney has been a better player than Beckham, however, and that is the more apt comparison.  (Beckham has been a colossal disappointment, for what that is worth.)

  • Joe

    Carlos Correa’s name has been thrown around with the likes of Beltran, A-Rod, and Posada. Is this kid really that good? If he is, I can’t see him being around at #6.

    • Kyle

      He’s not. Especially A-Rod at the same age.

      • Joe

        Thanks Kyle. I don’t know to much about the kid.

  • http://bleachernation.com lou brock lives

    One other note on White Sox versus Cubs on better systems – the Tenn. Smokies Cubs Double AA team is in last place – 3 games behind the Birmingham Barons (White Sox) where typically a team has its best – most promising – players. Not saying – just saying !!! I’m not a White Sox fan – just looking at results – not some publications subjective viewpoint.

    • Kyle

      The point where you start referencing minor league team’s records is the point where you’ve exposed yourself as a White Sox fan troll. I’m generous enough to assume you aren’t serious.

      • Cub Style

        I’m praying to God he’s not serious.

    • Drew7

      I’m no prospect expert, but the records of the minor league affiliates definitely isnt a good indicator by itself. The average age of the Sox’s roster at AA is 1.5 yrs older than Tennessee’s, for one.

      Also, much of the Cubs’ impact talent lies below that level.

    • Noah

      First: minor league team results are not indicative of system talent. At all. The reasons why a specific minor league team could be succeeding are myriad: it could be that, due to the farm system being poor at that level, the team brought in a good number of minor league free agents instead of pushing prospects faster than they’d like to. Or that all of an organization’s significant talent happens to be at that level.

      Second: the idea that a team has its best or most promising prospects at AA is utterly untrue. AA is an important point along the road, as the jump from High A to AA is probably the biggest one until the jump to the majors. But where a team places its most “promising” prospects is a matter of where those players are in their development. The best prospects at Tennessee right now are Trey McNutt, Junior Lake, Jae-Hoon Ha and Dae-Eun Rhee. You could argue McNutt is the number 4 prospect in the Cubs system, but you could just as well argue he belongs in the 6-10 range. Lake is probably also in 6-10, while Ha and Rhee are probably 10-20.

      Third: the Cubs definitively do not have their most promising prospects in AA. Rizzo and Jackson are in AAA. Javier Baez is in Low A. Most of their other 2011 draftees are in extended spring training. The guy who I think is their most exciting pitching prospect, Ben Wells, is at Low A. The strength of the Cubs’ system is, unfortunately, in a couple of players at AAA and a bunch of very young prospects who are a few years away.

  • http://bleachernation.com lou brock lives

    For the record I am not a White Sox fan & have been a Cub fan for well over 50 years. That is why I reference the greatest Cub who became great as a Cardinal – Lou Brock – to illustrate how poor we have done over the years pissing away talent.
    I will gladly reference my addiction to Cubdom with my knowledge of the teams of the 60’s thru today. I am not a believer in all of these statistical analysis that everyone seems to want to reference about players who have never played a minute of major league ball.
    And if I’m the current Cub management I would definitely be looking at College arms before high school arms which most likely are a minimum of 4-5 years away from playing in the majors.
    Finally do you think a White Sox fan would know who Adolpho Phillips was ? Look it up.

    • Drew7

      “I am not a believer in all of these statistical analysis that everyone seems to want to reference about players who have never played a minute of major league ball.”

      What does that mean?

      • Leo L

        I think he is trying to say that it is hard to predict who will be all stars and who will never make it to the major leagues. just becasue they are a first round choice ther is no gaurenattee especailly if they havent had any college experience. But at some point you must have some kind of evalution of a player to make a best guess. need some kind of stats. otherwise you are definately guessing. maybe if hthe cubs had better evaulation methods in hte past would they have kept Lou Brock?

        • Drew7

          I only ask because most people who say they oppose statistics are the ones who fall victim to them the worst. For example:

          Player A is having terrible luck at the plate: All peripherals are in line with current rates, but his BABIP is .120.

          Now, those who claim to be *opposed* to statistics will be here after the game writing, “They need to cut Player A, he sucks! Trade him for a bag of balls!” while claiming they dont need statistics to see that he sucks.

          If they truly used their polished, seasoned scouting eyes, they would see that player A is hitting the ball hard almost every time, still working counts, etc., he just cant find a hole. Those same people, while defending their viewpoint, will site the ol’ BA/HR/RBI triple slash to prove their point!

          The point is, its not all about statistics, but if you want to get a true reading on how a player is doing/will do in the future, you cant let your unreliable *own eyes* get in the way.

    • DocPeterWimsey

      So, MLB performance is random with respect to minor league performance?  That is, after all, a necessary assumption for your statement to be logically valid.  Would you like to bet anything substantial on that?  ;-)

      • Cheryl

        Doc, I take into account statistics but don’t think they give you the whole picture. There is a phrase :”statistics lie”. What’s your reaction to that?

        • King Jeff

          Statistics never lie. That said, a person can read anything into a statistic that they want and come up with a group of them to make a point.

        • hansman1982

          Jeff is correct, only the people who are looking at and interpreting stats lie. People point to the wrong stats to determine a players worth. Some stats are highly subjective.

          Just as much as I bemoan people who say they watch every game so they know “XYZ”, I grumble when people say “Well there is not statistical difference between A and B so therefore your scouting analysis sucks.” It is about finding the balance.

          If you notice you will read a lot about Theo, Jed and Jason actually going to visit a player and scout them in person and it doesn’t take a former athelete to know a good swing from bad.

    • Boogens

      “That is why I reference the greatest Cub who became great as a Cardinal – Lou Brock – to illustrate how poor we have done over the years pissing away talent.”

      Jeez. Buy a vowel, Lou. Is there some point in the future where you can just move on from that trade? Every single team that’s been around for any length of time has made bad trades where they “pissed away” talent. How come you can’t move on from that one? What about trading Bruce Sutter to the Cards for a whole lot of nothing? Why not complain about Larry Himes and Stanton Cook letting Maddux walk for nothing? At least it’s within the last 20 years. Why not moan about pissing away Joe Carter in the trade for Rick Sutcliffe?

      Why aren’t you bragging about the trades where the Cubs made a long time ago where they came out wa-a-a-y ahead, you know, when other teams pissed away their talent, like the Ryne Sandberg or Fergie Jenkins trades? Both those guys are HOFers. I don’t hear Phillies fans crying about them 30 and 50 years later. Time to move on and get some new material to complain about.

  • Spencer

    I know everyone is super stoked about the draft, but….

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17246

    • Kyle

      Love that link. Goes to show what I’ve been saying all along: No. 1 overall picks are pure boss. The dropoff from No. 1 to even No. 2 is quite noticable.

      Although, and this is maybe good for the Cubs, I think I like the No. 6 hitters over any group of hitters outside of No. 1.

      • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

        There are some good collections of pitchers on some of the later picks.

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