Well, it was a late and exciting night last night, when the Cubs selected high school outfielder Albert Almora with their first selection in the 2012 MLB Draft (sixth overall), and then college pitcher Pierce Johnson (43rd overall) and high school pitcher Paul Blackburn (56th overall). And, while they may be among the highest rated prospects selected by the Cubs in this year’s Draft, they are just the tip of the iceberg. Rounds two through fifteen will go today over the next few hours.
Anthony Rizzo is pretty roundly considered the Cubs’ top prospect at this point. But where was he five years ago? He was being drafted by Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Jason McLeod in the sixth round of the Draft, and signing for $325,000.
The point? There is some seriously important talent at stake in these middle rounds. There are a number of first round/supplemental round-caliber talents left on the board, including guys like Tanner Rahier, Chris Beck, Anthony Alford, Hunter Virant, and Ty Buttrey, among many, many others. The nice thing for the Cubs? A great deal of the best available talent is on the pitching side.
Things get underway at 11am CT, and you can watch a stream at MLB.com.
We’ll cover the picks here live. Throughout, I reckon there will be a steady stream of salient thoughts dropped in the comments, on the Message Board, on Twitter, and on Facebook. So join in, wherever your preference for chatting might lie.
Away we go, and here are the Cubs’ picks in round order (I’ll be updating as the Draft goes along):
2. Duane Underwood, RHP, Pope HS (GA) – One of the youngest pitchers in the Draft, Underwood is a high upside, raw prospect. I’m glad the Cubs went this route with one of their early picks. He’s 6’2″, 205 lbs, so he’s already a big kid. Here’s MLB.com’s take: “Underwood is everything you’d want from a high school pitcher: athletic with arm strength, a chance to have three at least Major League-average pitches and outstanding mound presence.The Georgia product will sit in the low 90s with his fastball typically, but he can reach back for 95-96 mph occasionally. His secondary offerings aren’t as good as the fastball, but both his curve and changeup have a chance. When he throws them right, his curve can have a very good 12-to-6 late break and his changeup can be very deceptive. He doesn’t throw either consistently right now and he does have some issues with command at times. His poise, knowledge of the game and athleticsm say he’ll continue to evolve as a pitcher, meaning he could start moving up charts this spring.”
3. Ryan McNeil, RHP, Nipomo HS (CA) – Another high school pitcher for the Cubs (that’s three in a row). He’s 6’3″, 210 lbs, so, yes, he’s another big kid, who throws hard. The Cubs certainly have a type early in this Draft (and it’s exactly what they said they wanted). I’m a little surprised that they haven’t taken a lefty yet, though. McNeil was apparently worked out by the Cubs some time ago, so he was obviously on their radar. He was also telling teams that he was “pretty interested in signing,” so it’s fair to wonder if the Cubs might have known they could sign him easily.
4. Josh Conway, RHP, Coastal Carolina U. – Another right-handed pitcher for the Cubs, but there’s a twist here: not only is he a college pitcher, but he also just had Tommy John surgery. Apparently he was a big-time draft prospect until he went down the elbow injury. From MLB.com: “In the smaller Big South Conference, Coastal Carolina has built a pretty good program that saw four players get drafted and sign in 2011. This year, it could have been Conway’s turn before an elbow injury ended his season and required Tommy John surgery. Once a two-way player, Conway gave up hitting completely to focus on the mound in 2012 and it was paying off. Coastal Carolina’s Friday starter, he’s a bit of an undersized right-hander, but one with a pretty good three-pitch mix. A good athlete on the mound, he throws a fastball, slider and changeup, all of which have the chance to be solid average offerings. Without truly overpowering stuff, he’ll have to continue to improve his command and keep hitters off-balance. Pre-injury, he had the chance to join teammate (and 2011 second-round pick) Anthony Meo as a fairly early Draft pick. Now a team will have to be willing to draft him and let him rehab under its watchful eye.” It will be interesting to see how much money he’ll take to sign, given that it’s pretty much a lottery ticket for the Cubs, and it would be hard for him to improve his Draft stock by returning to college for his senior year when he might not be able to pitch.
5. Anthony Prieto, LHP, Americas HS (TX) – Finally, a left-handed pitcher. Prieto is a smaller guy (5’11″ 170 lbs), who’s apparently new to pitching. He was at the tail end of BA’s top 500 draft prospects, so it makes you wonder if this is a kid the Cubs have spoken to, and believe they can sign for under slot.
6. Trey Lang, RHP, Gateway CC (Arizona) – Another hard-throwing right-handed pitcher for the Cubs, Lang is a top 200 draft prospect, and one who will probably be signing right around slot, if not a touch under. He’s a converted outfielder, so there isn’t much polish. As with many of the other pitchers, it’s all about his upside.
7. Stephen Bruno, 3B, University of Virginia – Hey, a positional player! Bruno was not considered a consensus top 300/400 type prospect in the Draft, so this pick could be a bit about trying to sign a player under slot (though Bruno is not a senior, he’s a junior). Bruno’s played around the infield, but missed the 2011 season with an injury. He’s a smaller guy – 5’9″ 165 lbs, but he had great numbers at Virginia this year (.370/.424/.559). Sounds like a vintage Theo/Jed/Jason pick.
8. Michael Heesch, LHP, University of South Carolina-Beaufort – Another pitcher, but this one is a college senior. That is the kind of guy you’d expect to be an underslot target at this point in the Draft. That’s not to say the Cubs don’t like him, but he doesn’t have much leverage. Sounds like Heesch is also a local boy, who pitched a couple years at the University of Illinois-Chicago. Yeah, all in all, I’m think this one saves the Cubs some money.
9. Chadd Krist, C, University of California-Berkeley – The Cubs take another college senior. Krist is a relatively light-hitting catcher, and I don’t think the Cubs view him as, for example, a Geovany Soto (or even Steve Clevenger/Welington Castillo) replacement in a few years. He’ll be depth at the position, and the Cubs will see what happens. They’ll also probably sign him for underslot.
10. Chad Martin, RHP, Indiana University – The Cubs go back to a pitcher, and it’s another college senior. Martin split time in the rotation and in the bullpen, but wasn’t particularly impressive (by the stats) in a lesser league. Once again, I’d say the Cubs are looking to save some money. Where they plan on using it remains to be seen. I don’t mean to tell you that some of the earlier pitchers they took won’t require overslot money, mind you. It just doesn’t look that way to me on a first glance.
11. Rashad Crawford, CF, Mundy’s Mill HS (GA) – As I’d hoped, the Cubs go with a high schooler in the 11th round, but I haven’t yet been able to determine whether he’s a “tough to sign” type of high schooler. I’m guessing he is, based on the placement (then again, he’s committed to Tallahassee Community College, which is fine, but not the kind of powerhouse baseball school you tend to fear when trying to sign a kid). Looks like he was the Georgia 4-AAAA player of the year, and has been compared to a “more advanced Lorenzo Cain.”
12. Justin Amlung, RHP, University of Louisville – Another college senior junior (redshirt), but, given his placement in the Draft, the Cubs must actually just like him a lot. He’s the 288th ranked prospect according to BA, so there you go. He had great numbers this year. Now that I see he’s a redshirt junior, he might be a tough sign.
13. Bijan Rademacher, OF, Orange Coast College (CA) – The number 445 Draft prospect, according to BA, Rademacher was at Cal State Fullerton last year, but now is at Orange Coast, which is a Juco. I’m not sure of the story.
14. Corbin Hoffner, RHP, St. Petersburg College (FL) – Another Juco selection, Hoffner is a tall righty (6’5″) who put up huge numbers in his league. He’s also quite young for a “college” draftee – he doesn’t turn 19 until the end of July.
15. Carlos Escobar, C, University of Nevada-Reno – BA had Escobar ranked 448 in the Draft. He’s a junior who put up decent, but not overwhelming numbers this past year.
Cubs are about up again…four more picks
You can’t honestly be this much of a meatball. Between your archaic view of baseball, Captain Caveman speech pattern, and readiness to meet up to fight it honestly has to be ruse to get people to respond to you, either that or you’re a Sox fan crashing the Cubs message board
Right now Zambrano is reading this blog thinking: “That Chris guy should really calm down.”
Nope I’m a cubs fan. And don’t hate on captin cave man he is the shit.
Wow…another injured player. Not even in BA’s top 500 prospects. Sounds like he had a good freshman year, but hasn’t lived up to it since.
It will be very interesting to see how these picks pan out. I’m very curious about the injury side of these past few picks.
Dude now I cant even be Mad that zambrano comment made me laugh my ass off.
Hey guys, sorry about opening up that can of worms with the quip about Chris’ writing.
Anyway, I’ve been a diehard Cubs fan my entire life, but this is the first draft I’ve ever followed. Theo/Jed have a little to do with it, but the main reason I’m so into it is the excellent pre-draft coverage from BN. Others have said it, but really nice job, Brett.
Thanks, Prof. The Draft can be a lot of fun to follow, as long as you have the right understanding about what it is, and what it’s worth (worth a lot, obviously, but this is the last time we’ll ever hear about most of these kids).
New to BN. Dig the chatter re: Cubs draft. New to caring about the Cubs draft so I have a question. Once the Cubs draft their 40 players, where do they all go? I know some don’t sign, but for the 25 or 30? that do sign, do they all start in rookie/A ball and 30 of the Cubs farm players get cut (never to be heard from again)?
A lot of them will head to the Arizona Rookie League and the Short-Season A Boise Hawks in the Northwest League. Neither of those teams have full rosters just yet.
Others will shuffle into Peoria and maybe Daytona with other players moving up or down as needed.
And a few fringe or minor league veteran types may get cut as a result. They can stash plenty of players in extended spring training, though, so there is no real need to hack away at the roster.
Hey Luke, any idea where Austin Urban is? I know Maples has been hurt, wondering why I haven’t seen anything from AZPhil on Urban.
I think he’s working out in Arizona. I’m not sure where he’ll start the season, but I’d guess Boise.
Most will go to Arizona to work in a Spring Training-like setting, and “Instructional” ball. Then some will go to Rookie Ball (AZL), and even fewer will go to Boise (Low A). A very, very small handful will see some time at Peoria (A ball) and maybe even Daytona (High A). Because most don’t actually go to a team right away, there isn’t a numbers crunch right away.
Thanks for response. Another question. I’m used to the NFL and NBA drafts where guys drafted have a pretty good chance to play as a pro within a year or 2. But it seems the MLB draft is a total crapshoot. I understand the reasons; aluminum bats, 18 year old draft picks are tough to predict who they will be in 4-6 years, hitters raking .600 against terrible competition, tracking the sheer volume of players, etc. It seems to me this is a bit insane (since the dawn of time, the MLB is ok drafting 40-50 players each year in the biggest luck of the draw imagineable). Brett/Luke, have you ever pondered what you would do to the high school/college game to make it easier to identify MLB talent (wood bats, not allow the drafting of high school players so you can compare against better competition, etc.)?
Here is an idea. Have Baseball Prospectus rank the top 200 players, then split up into groups of 40 players each (1-40, 41 – 80, etc.) and have them play in a few all star teams against each other? If ranked player#20 does NOTHING in the all-star games, it is obvious he is not in the top 40, etc.
I think you probably hit on the biggest one (force more kids to play at college), but I think MLB will always have this issue. The minor league systems are so large, and you’ll always have to keep filling them. And they’re so large because the development of an MLB-caliber baseball player almost always takes much longer than in the NFL or NBA. If we want the best athletes to be playing their best in the bigs, that minor league setup is kind of the only one that works. And if that’s the only minor league system that works, we’ll always have a huge draft (unless they want it to be almost entirely free agency, which MLB doesn’t want (because it wants control)).
I kinda like these injured high upside players. They were all solid prospects before injury so if they recover well we get solid prospects for a cheap price because of there injuries
Has anyone heard when Maples will be throwing again? And also, what level will he be pitching at?
He’ll be back in action some time in July, and he’ll be pitching with a short season team (either rookie ball (AZL) or Boise).
Thanks Brett!!!
I don’t think there is much of a chance Bruno stick at third in the Cubs’ system. I suspect they’re looking at him as a potential second baseman / utility guy. These college guys can sometimes move up the system fairly quickly, though. He could be in the upper minors in two years.
I think he started at SS and moved to 3B out of necessity. Maybe a Bellhorn – DeRosa – Baker type guy?
Cubs sign lefty pitcher hong-chih kuo
—Yesterday
Still on the front page and everything.
http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/06/04/chicago-cubs-sign-former-all-star-reliever-hong-chih-kuo/
I honestly don’t understand why they drafted Bruno. To small to be a 3rd baseman. Not enough upside with this guy at all. Makes no sense to me
They might see him as a poor-man’s Pedroia.
Maybe a very very poor mans pedroia. Pedroia was a 2nd round in a much much deeper and better draft in 2004. But decent comparison for size comparison. But ya never know maybe he’ll pan out
Yeah, toothless and with a cockney accent. Hmmm, maybe he’ll pan out as a cricket player….
Or they may have already worked out a below slot agreement with him.
Question for those clearly more in the know: If there is money left in the “pool” after all prospects are signed, can it be used for other purposes or is it forfeited?
It’s your money, you don’t HAVE to spend it on the Draft. It’s just the amount that you CAN spend on the top 10 rounds without incurring a penalty. Some teams, like the White Sox, perhaps, will not spend their full pool amount. The money they don’t spend just stays in their pocket.
Did anyone see the MLBTR report that Appel/Boras turned down a $6 million offer from the Astros? I hope he’s forced to sign with the Pirates for under $3 million.
Just read that. Appel might be pissed at Boras, because I just can’t see how the Pirates can give him $6 million.
Brett could you see Appel going back to school and turning down the money?
Absolutely. In fact, as Luke and Kyle have said, I could see that being the Pirates’ plan all along. (They get a comp pick at one slot later in the first round next year in a much better draft.)
I think it would be awesome if Boras gained a reputation for harming players’ prospects rather than improving them. It would be great if his power dwindled.
I think it’s dwindling already. He hasn’t had that great of a record recently.
I hope he doesnt sign at all this year. Go in next years draft and not to a division rival
burn. I suppose if he goe back to college he may get drafted by the cubs next year for less and a different agent.
I usually don’t comment a lot, but this draft coverage is awesome! Your doing a great job as always Brett!
Thanks, STG. I do what I can. I’m enjoying hearing from Luke as well.
Agreed…Luke has been phenomenal during the draft so far. He’s all over the message boards and Twitter posting info on each pick and sharing insights.
Having guys like Luke and Brett interacting with us all like this has made this whole draft process a lot more fun for the rest of us.
Thanks guys.
Yeah, his does an alright job as well.
Absolutely….Didn’t mean to leave out Luke. He’s always got great input and thoughts as well!
Alright guys I’m off to bed. It’s 920 where I’m at. Brett and Luke keep up the great work. See ya’ll tomorrow!!!
hey Luke,
Haven’t heard anything about Whitenack since returning last week, did he get re-injured?
Not that I know of. He’s in the starting rotation and on track to make his next start, I believe.
Remember 39th rounder Ricky Jacquez, the “one that got away” last year. Well an update: He signed to play for UT, had an ERA pushing 6, led the team in BBs (while pitching less than half the innings of the team leader) and was then kicked off the team for showing up drunk to the game on a day he was scheduled to pitch…for the SECOND time.
NO WAY! Wow.
Wow. I’m not sure if the Cubs dodged a bullet, or if Jacquez shot himself in the foot by going to college.
Are you not supposed to do that? Because I’ve never been specifically told not to do that at my job…
Now imagine this kid with a large signing bonus…bullet dodged!
And to think, he could have been the next Kyle Farnsworth.
So then who IS the one that got away in 2011?
I wont even pretend to know who these players are so I can’t comment on this draft or about any baseball draft.
I know there are a ton of picks made but it would be cool to have a 3 year draft grade based on how the players progressed 3 years after being drafted…
Here’s a question: When players are drafted “under slot” have the “over slot” players already been drafted ahead of the player a team is supposedly saving money on, or is the team collecting “under slot” players to save money for an “over slot” in a later round? Additionally, what motivation would any player have for signing under slot outside of not signing at all and being drafted next year? In particular, Appel’s situation seems to be one of little to no leverage, considering how 4th year college players were treated in this year’s draft. If if doesn’t sign and is drafted next year, against better talent, he will be forced to sign at the mercy of the team who drafts him.
If I were doing the drafting, I’d sign my overslot players first and then look to capture some savings later, but if you had multiple picks early, you might try to capture a ton of that overslot money with an early pick (some think the Cardinals did that with their pick in the mid-20s in the 1st round).
As for who you draft who will sign underslot, most would suggest that fringy prospects you could sign underslot or college seniors (as they don’t have another shot at the draft).
You can’t do that. If the later picks don’t accep the lowball offer, you lose the slot allotmentall together. For example, the Cubs have $3.25 mil alotted for Almora. Say Almora demanded $6 million (he won’t), you can’t just say “okay” and then not sign the rest of the guys.
Is that how it works? I thought it was a pool of money that could be be allocated within the first ten rounds as you see fit. (With penalties if you go over your 10-round total). Then, after that, it’s use it or lose it. Am I way off on how this works?
You’re right, with the additional condition that if you don’t sign a player, you lose that portion of the pool. The only way to “save” money is to sign a kid for less than the slot amount.
Just tweeted: “Remember: after 10th round, you can swing and miss on a kid without “losing” that slot money from your Draft pool.”
The point is, I could see teams taking a swing at a kid they’re highly unlikely to be able to sign once we get to the 11th round and beyond. Because then, finally, there’s no risk for not signing him (other than losing the pick).
It’s true there’s no risk to not signing him (outside of losing the pick), but from my understanding, those picks have a $100,000 bonus cap anyways, so there is no ability to use the “saved” slot money on anyone past the 10th round. If you think you’re saving money, which you won’t know until negotiations anyways, you will need to spend it in rounds 1-10. It all seems very convoluted.
I am pretty skeptical of the “under slot” signings. Sure, if you draft a guy who should be a 3rd rounder in the 2nd round, he isn’t likely to demand more than the 2nd round slot money. But, you just defined him as a 2nd round pick, so I don’t see it as likely that you will get him for a whole lot less than the slot $, and I certainly don’t think you will sign him for 3rd round money.
So… for your “under slot” pick, you just selected a guy who you could have had in a later round and you may very well end up overpaying for him.
The one exception I am seeing is drafting guys who are recuperating from injuries. For these guys an MLB team can offer them superior medical access and rehab facilities, that is a big off-the books bonus. Of course these guys come with pretty severe built in risk though.
I actually agree with you, but with one big exception (in addition to the injury one, as you noted) – sometimes, scouts know what kids are going to sign no matter what. Sure, they want as big a bonus as they can get, but they want to be pro ballplayers. Don’t forget, the kids don’t just get a bonus, they also get a chance to be a pro ballplayer (doesn’t pay well, though…). That means a lot to some of them.
The biggest group of that latter exception are college seniors, obviously.
I think it all depends on how they have them ranked for paying/underpaying. Say the supplemental pick is up and you have 5 guys all ranked pretty close, pick the guy who will take less, obvisously. My question is how do they have time to figure out who will take what with this fast paced draft? And whats to stop a guy from saying I’ll sign for 600k if you pick me, and then you pick him and he changes his mind and wants 900k or is going to UCLA? The whole mlb drafting thing seems so sketchy.
Here’s a video of a Michael Heesch slider: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa0381qNn2o
Another video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnPHfSch6gg
I like this one too. A post game interview with him on a day that sounds like all the scouts were there watching. He seems pretty poised and confident. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QF13sexD3cQ&feature=related
Pick #254 Michael Heesch from University of South Carolina Beaufort. Big LHP from the Chicago area (Crystal Lake)…6-5 and throws in the low 90s. That’s about all I’ve found on him…but at least he wasn’t injured last year.
The article I read states he was clocked at 87 to 89. Doesn’t seem to fit the “impact player” description. See: http://beta.gastongazette.com/articles/ace-59911-gaston-favor-grizzlies.html
PerfectGame had him at 90-91, but their report is actually a little older than yours. It’s only a couple MPH difference, but they are very important MPH.
A lot of scouts love tall lefties, and Heesch fits that description.
Do you think since we’ve taken some guys that could be signed under slot possibly, do you think we’ll have enough money that would allow us to take a kid a surprise kid that people think we can’t sign in these next couple picks? Buehler? Virant? Avis? What you think?
If the rumors are true that Virant wasn’t willing to sign for anything less than top 20 pick money, then you’d have to clear a TON to sign him.
Yeah. Just couldn’t do it at this point, I don’t think.
I might take a flyer in this round, though. If it doesn’t work, the slot money you lose is relatively modest and if you can save a few hundred thousand here or there, you could probably get close to a million dollar bonus plus if you go over by your 5%.
Michael Heesch is going to join his former travel baseball teammate Elliot Soto. Both him and Soto played on the McHenry County Hurricanes, which has numerous players in the minors (Smolinski AA Miami, Wright High-A Philly, Soto AA Cubs, Krol AA Oakland, Martini High-A Cardinals). Heesch pitched for the HS State Champions Prairie Ridge Wolves. He’s a local boy who is a big Cubs fan. Glad to see him go to the Cubbies!!!
He’s from Crystal Lake, IL.
So it looks like the Cubs have drafted several underslot guys. Does this mean they are looking to draft an overslot guysoon? if so, who?
Paul Sullivan just posted an article quoting Almora talking about college baseball being his top priority and speculating that Almora could be a tough sign.
Let the Boras games begin…
He’s been well-coached.
I like Almora a lot, but that is why you stay away from Boras players. Way to much drama involved. Not drafting Boras players is the one good thing the White Sox do.
One, it’s hard to call anything you do “good” when your farm system is the worst in baseball, as the ChiSox’s farm system is. Two, the Boras situation has not gone unnoted among players: the best amateur players want Boras as their agent because he has been so successful at getting the best contracts for his clients.
I know the White Sox are terribly ran, and have a train wreck farm system, but Boras gives me such a headache. I guess you have to deal with him sometimes to get the best players, although he screwed Appel bigtime (hopefully people take notice). Trust me, I am not saying for the Cubs to do anything like the White Sox. They are complete morons over there for sure.
So, if I understand this correctly, the Cubs have 7.9 million to spend on the first 10 rounds. If Almora demands 5 million, we only have 2.9 million for the other 9 round signings. Is that how it works, or is there a recommended slot for each round (I’ve seen the 3.25 million number float around for the Cubs and Almora) that we can’t go over?
You are correct. There are recommended slots for each pick in the top 10 rounds, but you don’t have to follow them. You can go under or over. But if you go over the $7.9 million TOTAL, then you incur penalties.
Not for nothing, but it’s pretty well explained here (better than I can answer in comments, anyway): http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/06/01/2012-mlb-draft-primer-the-new-cba-and-draft-changes/
Sorry, I knew there was an explanation some where on this site and I didn’t go looking for it. Besides, it’s much easier to grasp when you start applying real world situations, such as:
You just drafted a Boras client. How do you get yourself out of this quagmire?
Routine stuff.
Expect him to start wearing Miami gear in public, visit the campus, work out in the facilities, talk in glowing terms about the school, the city, the weather, the color of the uniforms, the flavor of the water from the water fountains, the height of the grass, and everything else Boras can dream up.
And just before the deadline he’ll put his name on the dotted line for the Cubs at a dollar amount that has probably all but been agreed to.
Cub fans are going to panic as the game plays out, but there is no need to worry.