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A Lukewarm Stove breather from the Scott Feldman signing reacting …

  • The Cubs have not been attached to B.J. Upton in a single credible rumor (despite there being reasons to consider him), so this mostly ancillary information at this point, but he’s expected to make a decision on his future team this week. The Braves and the Phillies are believed to be his heaviest suitors, with possible interest from the Nationals and Reds, too … and, naturally, a mystery team. I can’t wait to see what kind of contract he gets, as his signing will be the first big-time deal of the offseason, and could set the tone for the rest of the Winter.
  • After Upton signs, the Rockies could become inclined to shop center fielder Dexter Fowler, who broke out in a big way in 2012 (.300/.389/.474), and doesn’t turn 27 until March. Troy Renck says the asking price will be very high, which is understandable – though Fowler has three more arbitration years left after being a Super Two. He’ll make upwards of $6 million in 2013, and won’t be as much of a bargain going forward. That said, he’s an interesting center field option on the market (though UZR says he’s been a poor defensive one).
  • The Yankees are expected to get a deal done with Andy Pettitte, which, together with the Hiroki Kuroda deal, should effectively take the Yankees out of the starting pitching market, and could make someone like Phil Hughes available.
  • Speaking of the starting pitching market, as expected, Zack Greinke is going to get the most money this offseason, and it could be record-breaking for a right-handed starter. Execs expect him to pull in upwards of six years and $25 million per year (I’ll bet he gets seven years, if he wants it).
  • And speaking of super-expensive free agents, Buster Olney reports that some agents believe Josh Hamilton won’t get a deal longer than three years. Sure, it’d be for $25 million or more per year, but a three-year Hamilton deal? Why wouldn’t 15 teams be in on that, even considering the special risks? For that reason, I think there’s no way he gets only three years. Four or five seem like the minimum.
  • As noted previously, the Royals are considering moving top prospect Wil Myers for a veteran pitcher, for reasons only they know. Bob Dutton reports that a couple of the arms they’ve been discussing are Jon Lester and James Shields, each of whom wouldn’t be much of a return for Myers, one of the top three prospects in all of baseball, and who is big league ready. I’m sure the Royals are setting their sights a bit higher.
  • The Reds are on the verge of inking Jonathan Broxton to a three-year deal, which would move Aroldis Chapman into the rotation, and could put a Reds pitcher (Mike Leake?) on the trade market. As they showed with the Travis Wood/Sean Marshall deal last year, the Cubs and Reds aren’t totally averse to dealing with each other, so it’s something to watch.
  • The Mets have offered David Wright a six year, $100 million extension (the same as Evan Longoria just received, but Wright is a free agent after this year, so the extension wouldn’t have quite as much risk), but he’s expected to turn it down. If that happens, you can figure the Mets will be quick to start shopping the third baseman. Under contract for 2013 only, Wright doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for the Cubs, though just about every team – including the Cubs – would be interested in him long-term at third base. Given the state of the third base market, though, I’d think the bidding on Wright could get nutty.
  • bbmoney

    Love David Wright.

    I’d be really surprised if the Mets dont’ up that offer before shopping him. They might be thinking, can we afford to given our finances? But they should be thinking….can we afford not to since no one will come to our games anymore?

  • Rizzo 44

    Agree on the Wright thing. Nutty isn’t even enough to how crazy it may get. I would love to have him, but I’m sure the Cubs wont be the team that gets him. Also if Hamilton can only get 3 years from other teams the Cubs should offer 4-5 and sign him not just for 2013 but for 2014 and beyond. Phil Hughes would be a good addition to the Cubs in the BP or as a starter. I think the Cubs will make some moves as the Winter meetings and things will start to look up for 2013. Baker and Feldman aren’t bad pick-ups at all. If you can use them as your number 4-5 guys and can trade Garza and/or Wood and sign/trader for a lefty then the staff looks a lot better. Garza has value if healthy in the AL east. The O’s would love to have him so look for something with them maybe.

  • Rizzo 44

    Fowler would be a nice pick up as a CF as well. Just not sure his value is as high out of Denver as people seem to think.

    • AB

      I’d rather start Tony Campana than give up something of value for Dexter Fowler.

      • Rizzo 44

        Campana will never be a starter for the Cubs. He is at best a 4th OF that has speed. Thats all. Fowler has power, speed, and can play all three OF spots. Fowle is a much better player. I hope they don’t trade for him but he is a much better choice than Campana.

        • King Jeff

          If last year was the real Dexter Fowler, then yes, he would be a great addition. I have doubts about that though. I’m always going to be a little tentative about guys who’s batting average jumps 40 points from one season to the next, especially a guy whose BABIP is close to .400. He still strikes out a ton, but that could just be because he sees a lot of pitches. I’d like to see him play well again before shipping the kind of package to Denver that the Rockies want in return for him.

  • TWC

    Snatching Leake from the Reds would be a steal.

    • Mac

      I see what you did there..

    • Mick

      There are rumors connecting Leake with the Twins in exchange for Denard Span. Other names the circling in that rumor are Didi Gregorius, Tony Cingrani, and Billy Hamilton. The latter may require the addition of Josh Willingham.

  • BD

    I would send Garza plus pieces to KC for Myers.

    Also, I would be in on Hamilton at the 3-year length, regarded of AAV.

  • Rizzo 44

    Angles going to get Madson on a one year deal. I wish the Cubs would have signed him.

    • Mac

      Seems likely that Brian Wilson will be non tendered. Don’t see the Cubs a fit though

    • Cubbie Blues

      Quit being so obtuse.

      • hansman1982

        [img]http://www.treatloaf.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/obtuse.gif[/img]

        • Cubbie Blues

          what a cute little picture.

          • EQ76

            nice

          • EQ76

            I’m positive that was the right angle to take.

            • Stinky Pete

              He might have a fever. He looks to be over 100 degrees…

            • Cubs217

              Comments like this are why I love the comment section on this site

        • hansman1982

          All of these comments and no one notices the funny angle between the midsection and feet? Weak BN, weak

          • MichiganGoat

            Just keeping it classy

  • Kyle

    Wright has the option to void his 2013 option year if he’s traded. He almost literally can’t be traded without an extension agreement in place.

    • Rizzo 44

      I wouldn’t want to trade for him unless he agress to a new contract anyway. I still think he could play the season out for the Mets or at least until the ASB.

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      I’d have to dig, but I suspect that right lasts *until* the option is picked up. After that point, it’s not an option anymore – it’s a contract for 2013 under which he’s obliged. It may include its own no-trade right, of course, but no one is reporting any of this.

      • hansman1982

        ya, that wouldn’t make sense otherwise – if they traded him at the deadline he could void it then and become a FA? Talk about payday though.

        • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

          Ha, that would be awesome. “Ok, it’s August … who wants me? Open up yer checkbooks … “

          • hansman1982

            Roger Clemens, Part Duex times Duex to the power of Duex.

  • cubchymyst

    I don’t think Hamilton comes to wrigley, he has stated he dislikes day games and his numbers are worse during the day.

  • dan

    Great Scott’s is Scott Rolen next ?

  • daveyrosello

    It doesn’t fit Theo’s long-term plan for the Cubs true, but with their $$, it sure would be cool to see David Wright and Josh Hamilton in a Cubs uniform in 2012. Instant contender?

  • terencem

    Too bad the Cubs already sent the Rockies superstar Tyler Colvin.

    • ssckelley

      Superstar? Seriously?

      • terencem

        You’d think by the way some people whine about trading him.

        • ssckelley

          Oh sorry, I need to send my sarcasm detector in for repairs.

  • terencem

    If the Royals are interested in Shields, I hope Hoyer is calling Moore every single day.

  • Phoenix

    Is there a reason the Cubs would not throw out some high dollar one and two year deals at these guys. I’m talking about really high dollar. Then they could just eat a fair amount of the salary and ask for big name prospects in return when it’s time to flip these guys. From what I gather our payroll is going to be quite manageable this year.

    • Mick

      We’re currently at about $93 million so, what’s your definition of manageable?

      • Kyle

        Can you show your work on that? It’s coming out about $10 million high by my math.

        • cubfanincardinalland

          The way the team is right now, the payroll would be around 84 million, counting the money for Soler and expected arbitration salaries.

        • Mick

          Soriano, Alfonso $19,000,000.00
          Garza, Matt $10,000,000.00
          Marmol, Carlos $9,800,000.00
          Baker, Scott $7,000,000.00
          Castro, Starlin $7,000,000.00
          DeJesus, David $7,000,000.00
          Feldman, Scott $7,000,000.00
          Samardzija, Jeff $5,000,000.00
          Stewart, Ian $4,250,000.00
          Concepcion, Gerardo $1,200,000.00
          Soler, Jorge $2,000,000.00
          Navarro, Dioner $1,750,000.00
          Camp, Shawn $1,350,000.00
          Russell, James $1,200,000.00
          Valbuena, Luis $1,000,000.00
          Barney, Darwin $900,000.00
          Campana, Tony $900,000.00
          Beliveau, Jeff $500,000.00
          Bowden, Michael $500,000.00
          Cabrera, Alberto $500,000.00
          Castillo, Lendy $500,000.00
          Castillo, Welington $500,000.00
          Chapman, Jaye $500,000.00
          Clevenger, Steve $500,000.00
          Dolis, Rafael $500,000.00
          Rizzo, Anthony $500,000.00
          Wood, Travis $500,000.00

          Total Estimated Current 2013 Payroll: $91,350,00

          I used MLBTR’s estimated arb #’s, included Soler & Concepcion’s salaries, included all incentives, used $500,000 as the minimum salary, and just guessed on the 25-man roster.

          • hansman1982

            Don’t forget the backloading on Pena’s contract….

            Eh, get it? Get it?

            HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

          • hansman1982

            But in all seriousness…your math is right with those numbers.

          • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

            A few things:

            (1) DeJesus’s 2013 salary is $4.25 million, and would then include a $1.5 million buyout if the Cubs don’t pick up his $6.5 million 2014 option.
            (2) Per reports (who knows if they are correct), Concepcion received a $3 million signing bonus up front, and then $3 million spread over 5 years – that would put his 2013 salary at $600k.
            (3) Tony Campana is not arbitration eligible yet.
            (4) Soriano’s 2013 salary is $18 million – I know many sources have it as $19 million, but that appears to trace back to a long uncorrected typo on Cot’s. Per original reports on the deal, it’s $18 million this and next year.
            (5) Castro’s 2013 salary is $5 million.

          • cubfanincardinalland

            Not to be anal about it, but your inflated on a lot of the salaries.
            Soriano is actually 18 mil
            Baker 5.5
            Castro 5
            Dejesus 4.5
            Feldman 6
            Shark, expected 3.2
            Stewart expected 3, maybe less
            Makes for about 9-10 million less than your total.

            • Mick

              Aw crap, you’re right, my spreadsheet has been tainted. hehe.

              I’ve fixed it and now show $85,600,000, final answer. That still includes the incentives for Feldman and Baker, $500,000 as the minimum salary, Soler & Concepcion, and MLBTR’s estimated arb #’s.

              • King Jeff

                Is that with our without Stewart? I don’t see him returning to the Cubs at anything close to what he was making before.

          • MightyBear

            I do have a question maybe somebody can help me with. If the payroll is at approx 87 mil. The minor league money is capped at 12 mil. The international money is capped at approx 10 mil. And the budget for baseball ops is 200 mil and its all going back into the system, where’s all the money going? Are they rolling the other 90 mil into next year so we have 290 next year? I may be with the K-man now and agree they need to spend some money on some young talent if there’s any still available. Not Upton though.

            • Kyle

              There’s other costs in there. Front office salaries and paying minor league players and stuff. But mostly, yeah, there’s a lot of money missing.

    • http://www.viewfromthebleachers.com Norm

      So you basically want to spend about $30-50M to acquire a prospect in the 25-50 range?

      • Phoenix

        When you put it that way my answer would be no, and maybe that is why we would not do this. If that is in fact what would happen then you have answered my question.

        The reason for the original question was this: It is obvious that we are looking for guys that can prove their value and perhaps become a flippable piece to strenghten the Cubs 2-4 years from now. If that is part of the equation for rebuilding, why can’t it be done with a higher caliber player and in return receive a higher caliber prospect. It seems to make sense to me, admittadly I don’t have a ton of free time to play GM.

  • Kyle

    Fowler is a product of Coors Field, BABIP luck, and he’s terrible defensively. Do not want.

    • bbmoney

      I agree. If he was a FA, I wouldn’t mind signing him. But the asking price in a trade will almost certainly be inflated because of his Coors numbers. Another guy to check the road home splits on. I just don’t see him being worth the kind of prospects it would take.

      Much rather see them go sign someone. Or even trade for Crisp who I’m sure would cost less.

  • Phoenix

    I didn’t realize we were already committed to that much but 130 mil seems manageable for such a large market

  • Believe in 2015

    I think the Cubs should go after Wil Myers. Imagine an outfield of Soler, Almora, Myers! And the infield would include Baez, Castro, and Rizzo.

  • Jeremy

    Hypothetical:

    Garza, Baez, Jackson, Lake, and McNutt for Moustakas and Meyers

    Would you guys do that? Seems to make sense for both sides. Garza has to prove he’s healthy first though.

    • terencem

      It wouldn’t make sense from the Royals side. They only want to give up one of their young bats. They idea is that, by selling on Myers, they limit the number of players they give up.

    • http://www.viewfromthebleachers.com Norm

      Would be a TERRIBLE trade for the Royals.

    • Jeremy

      I’d include Baez only if we were getting Myers in return. If not that could be a decent trade for Moose

  • Cerambam

    Correct me if I’m wrong but when we consider payroll doesn’t that normally only consider the big league payroll? Meaning that we wouldn’t count soler or concepion, because at that point we could count the salary we pay to any and all prospects. Thus, you can subtract about 3.2 million for those two plus whoever else doesn’t make the big league squad.

    Although I suppose they are on the 40 man and that’s where we draw the line?

    • terencem

      Payroll consists of everybody on the 40 man plus any money owed on previous deals. They only have to pay non-contracted players for the days they play major league games but it’s just standard to throw them all on there.

    • Mick

      Teams typically only count the 25-man roster to calculate payroll but in cases of more than the minimum salary or signing bonuses for International FA’s or draftees under the previous CBA teams also take those into account.

  • Myles

    I would do, like, Garza and Vogelbach for Myers pretty quickly. I’d even do something like Garza, Vogelbach, and Johnson/Maples or something like that.

    I doubt the Royals would do that, but if they are going to settle for James Shields instead, you’d have to think they’d be crazy to not consider that. It’s not like Shields has great team control (9 in 13, 12/1 buyout in 14).

    Other than that, it doesn’t make sense from the Royals standpoint for any of our guys. We aren’t giving them Shark.

  • Rizzofanclub

    “Garza, Baez, Jackson, Lake, and McNutt for Moustakas and Meyers” I would do this trade for either Meyers or Moustakas and maybe another prospect in the 15-25 range. The way I look at it Meyers could be brought up midseason or Moustakas could be extended at the end of the year giving the cubs a core of: Castro,Rizzo,Meyers/Moustakas. Not a bad 2,3,and 4 hitters.

    • CubsFanBob

      Moustakas is by far the 3b player I would want the Cubs trading for or signing on FA. I just dont know if we match up well but would be willing to attempt it if I was in charge. Maybe a 3 way trade w Tampa. Rays get Soriano / Marmol + whoever, Cubs get Mouttakas + whatever , KC gets Shields+ whatever

  • http://bleachernation.com someday…2015?

    Myers would be an interesting get for the Cubs. Seeing as the Cubs are loaded with positional prospects and not so much with pitching makes the Cubs a very unlikely suitor. If the Royals really do want major league pitching for Myers then im guessing the Cubs wouldn’t even be an option at the moment.(maybe in spring training after Garza proves he’s healthy.) It would be fun to watch an outfield of Myers, Almora, and Soler, I can’t argue that… Basically what im saying is trading for Myers would put the Cubs even further back then they already are in the “pitching department”, and if there’s a team not in position to be trading away pitching, its the Cubs. All that being said, Garza for Myers straight up would put a smile on my face:)

  • North Side Irish

    I know there isn’t really a connection from prospect to prospect, but it’s an interesting point.

    Will Carroll ‏@injuryexpert
    For all those coveting Wil Myers, who I have never seen play, answer this first: who’s last Royals prospect who’s been good as hyped?

    • BWA

      Its a lot easier to sign 3-4 good pitchers than a whole lineup of hitters in free agency. You could build a decent staff with the Sanchez and McCarthy’s of the world with a true ace thrown in.

  • Boogens

    Smells (and looks) like Cubs1967…

    • Boogens

      Brett, did you nuke the King Troll comment?

      • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

        Yes.

        • hansman1982

          Shame on you using banuclear weapons.

          • Katie

            Brett’s stepping up his game from the Banhammer to Banuclear? Intriguing.

            • MichiganGoat

              I love it, not as good as Dick in the Dick but another great creation

              • Katie

                Nothing is as good as dicked in the dick. Nothing.

  • cubfanincardinalland

    Another fine Cub site like this one is Cubs Den. John over there has written a great piece called rebuilding the Cubs. It really shows the thought process that the Cubs management is following, and would be a good read for many on here calling for the team to just start throwing a bunch of money at free agents.

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      John does great work.

    • DarthHater

      would be a good read for many on here calling for the team to just start throwing a bunch of money at free agents

      I believe that’s the fisking cue for Kyle… ;-)

  • ruby2626

    Any word on the Greek God of Walks? I’d overpay him for one year and flip him at the deadline. If he is not the answer that Keppinger guy sounds intriguing. Read where his career BA against lefties is .333, very Jeff Bakerish. Would be a great plattoon with Valbuena.

    To a previous caller, I believe Pena’s $5M is off the books. I thought his $10M was $5M each for 2 seasons, 2011 and 2012.

    • DarthHater

      Anybody know if there’s also a Roman or a Norse God of Walks?

      • Rich

        That would be Ricky Henderson. He is the Greatest of all Time so I assume that makes him every God of Walks.

      • Internet Random

        There’s a Ministry of Silly Walks, if that helps you out any.

  • DarthHater

    Grandpa’s back. Time to tap the Strategic Ellipsis Reserve. :-D

    • DarthHater

      And now I look like even more of an idiot than usual. Thanks Brett. ;-)

    • MichiganGoat

      He’ll be back again maybe next time he’ll use your name

      • TWC

        No, looks like he’s sticking with yours.

  • Mick

    But then you burn all of your financial flexibility on a few extra wins when this team is in dire need of more than just those few pieces you mentioned. You’re forgetting the black hole at 3B, a competent closer, an offensive upgrade at 2B, bench depth. Our payroll is already at $85 million, what you suggest adding Greinke, Hamilton, and Upton would increase our annual payroll to around $150 million. If you factor in the Garza and Shark extensions you mentioned, we’d be WELL north of even that number. At some point you’re going to be bumping into running the Cubs at an operating loss. What are your limits man!?!

  • Carew

    Sorta random bit…If Jair Jurrjens is indeed non-tendered, could he be a target?

    • Noah

      If I were Theo and Jed, it would have to be on a very cheap base deal with incentives, and only after the doctors take a long hard look considering his fastball velocity has dropped 3 mph over the last couple of seasons.

  • Carew

    Can you at least change the username

    • MichiganGoat

      Carew just ignore him completely it’s not worth our breath

  • Ken

    The truth is the Agents are smart enough and they know that Theo and companys plan is not gonna work and they are gonna steer there players away from these nut bags………

    • Noah

      This is arguably the dumbest thing that has ever been said on the internet.

      • MichiganGoat

        Oh Noah just stick around…

        • Noah

          Yeah, I know. But I was just in the mood to call something the dumbest thing ever posted on the internet.

          • DarthHater

            arguably

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