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According to multiple reports, the San Francisco Giants have re-signed center fielder Angel Pagan to a four-year, $40 million deal. The deal’s implications for the Cubs are mostly tangential, but not non-existent.

  • The Cubs remain in the market for a center fielder, but it remains unclear at what level they’ll be looking. They were not attached to Pagan (or B.J. Upton before him), but a rumor over the weekend saw the Cubs popping up as one of an undetermined number of teams interested in Michael Bourn. Pagan’s signing would not appear to have much of an impact on Bourn’s price. Back when Jon Heyman and an unidentified expert predicted free agent salaries, they had Pagan at about three to four years and $10 to $11 million per. Thus, Pagan didn’t bust things on the upside, and his deal probably won’t have an impact on Bourn’s. (Heyman and the expert predicted about five years and $80 to $83 million for Bourn, for what it’s worth.)
  • The most prominent members remaining in the center field market on the buying side are probably the Rangers and the Phillies. The Rangers are still heavily involved in bringing Josh Hamilton back. The Phillies have been attached to Bourn, as well as Shane Victorino, one of the other prominent names on the market, and their former center fielder. The Pagan signing could push the Phillies back toward Bourn.
  • … or it could push them into trying to upgrade elsewhere in the outfield. Perhaps, say, in left field? We heard this weekend that the Cubs are planning to meet with teams this week about Alfonso Soriano, and the one team specifically mentioned was the Phillies. Maybe Pagan was option 1, and Soriano is option 2? It’s conceivable, even if they are different types of players who play different positions …
  • If the Cubs are going the bargain route in center field – perhaps looking at a perennial bounce-back type like Grady Sizemore (UPDATE: Sizemore’s agent just revealed that his client had another microfracture surgery, which means that, if the Cubs are interested, it’s as a mid-season flyer type – not that he would have been more than a flyer as it was) – then the Pagan signing has no impact on the Cubs whatsoever.
  • DocPeterWimsey

    Glad to see that the Giants learned their lesson from Huff two years ago. Oh, wait….

    • IMatty Ice

      Huff’s contract really hindered the giants this year. Oh wait..

  • Njriv

    I think the Cubs should go after a RF than a CF.

  • http://bleachernation.com someday…2015?

    Sizemore would be a nice addition. I love the hustle he would bring to the Cubs game. I see Sizemore as a young Reed Johnson type after his injuries which would not be a bad piece to add.

    • Dougy D

      I would like Sizemore if he could last more than 8 games.

    • MightyBear

      I like Sizemore too but him and the brick wall in Wrigley is a disaster waiting to happen.

      • http://bleachernation.com someday…2015?

        I can’t argue with either of you. It would most likely turn out bad playing at Wrigley 82 games a year but if he’s cheap, say 1 year for 1M then I would think you take the chance on him. Not a high risk for what would hopefully be a nice reward.

  • Cedlandrum

    10 million for a guy like Pagan? Wow. I mean I know this is a weak class, but he is basically A two year younger David DeJesus.

  • #1lahairfan

    What about Cody Ross, and Scott Hairiston?

    • Jade

      Ross basically had a career year feasting off of the Green Monster, or so would his home roads splits seem to suggest. and he’s 32 and probably wants more than 2 years and what he’s worth.

      • #1lahairfan

        I meant or instead of and.
        i am pretty sure that Hairiston can play all 3 outfield spots

  • BD

    Just read this about Sizemore- sounds like he won’t be ready to start the season…

    http://mlb.mlblogs.com/2012/12/03/sizemore-had-microfracture-surgery-wont-be-ready-at-start-of-13/

  • daveyrosello

    It’s too bad about Sizemore, talented player that simply cannot stay healthy. Stay away.

  • The Dude Abides

    Sizemore definitely fits into a HIGH risk category, he didn’t play at all last season and hasn’t played a full season since 2008. Among other injuries by age 30 he already has had micro fracture and back surgery. Hopefully that’s just something this board has conjured up and not a rumor circulating in Nashville.

  • marcel91

    I don’t think Pagan is a 10mil a year player. Glad the cubs wanted no part of that. Hendry would have blown everyone out of the water with 6yr 60mil for pagan.

  • http://bleachernation.com someday…2015?

    Anyone know what Sizemore is looking for years/$ wise? At 1 year for 1-2M I would sign him. Anything higher in years or cash I’d stay far away.

    • http://bleachernation.com someday…2015?

      Nevermind. Just saw that update. I don’t see any team signing him any time soon.

  • http://bleachernation.com RicoSanto

    I Cant see Bourn being worth more than BJ Upton ( 5 year-75 il). I thought, j, he would be worth it.

  • Matty V

    I think signing someone like Shane Victorino would make more sense for the Cubs than going after someone like Bourn. Victorino’s projected asking price (same Heyman article Brett linked to above) is in the 2/$21 mil. or 3/$30 mil. range. The short contract length and lower overall salary makes a lot more sense to me than the 5+/$80+ mil. Bourn would want, especially since his value almost entirely comes from his speed.

    Also, if the Rangers are interested in a CF replacement if Hamilton moves on, what does that mean for Leonys Martin or Julio Borbon? I know Borbon hasn’t panned out in Texas, but wouldn’t he be the kind of young, buy-low, bounce back player Theo and Jed like? I haven’t seen much of Martin, but I’d love to give him a shot if the Rangers don’t see him as their future CF.

  • Serious Cubs Fan

    If the cubs could flip soriano to the Phil’s. Then acquire Bourn on 1 for $20 mil and a mutual Team/player opt yr tacked for $22 mil, would be a great deal for the Cubs. They could then flip him midseason for a pretty good return. This could also help Bourn if he doesn’t get the contract offers he wants, he could just accept a short high annual contract. Highly unlikely to happen but it be great for the cubs

    • Justin

      Bourn is not going to sign a 1-2 yr contract. His agent is Scott Boras, no way Boras would go after that. He would take less money for more years then more money less years. Boras like to make stories up anyway so who even knows if the Cubs even spoke to him about Bourn.

      • Serious Cubs Fan

        @Justin: Scott Boras also is Edwin Jackson agent who last year accepted $11 mil 1 yr deal with the Nats. Jackson didn’t the amount of years he wanted so they took a moderately high annual amount short 1 year deal. Its unlikely but possible. Do you homework a little bit Justin. But I agree its not what they are looking for in amount of years, and it is unlikely to happen but if Boras doesn’t get the years or amount he wants its not out of the question

        • Brian Peters

          There’s a BIIIIIIIGGGGG difference between Edwin Jackson and Bourn, Serious. EJ is not considered one of the “elite” at his position (even though I question whether, at 30, Bourn is, but I digress). Bourn wouldn’t sign a one-year deal at this point in his career. He could become seriously injured in 2013, and then who would take him?

  • http://It'searly Mike F

    Some of you have been watching too much TV and flip this house junk. Bourne is going to get a lot of money and probably 5 years . He’s 29. So if you think that he’s flippable think again.

    Leads me to this. Pagan isn’t worth what he gets and most aren’t. Its why there is always a high premium for urgency. The time to extend people is always now! Let me explain this with, owners always make assumptions that fans are stupid at best and detached from reality or mentally challenged at worst. The Pagans of the world get lots of money today and will get even more tomorrow because we pay the freight.

    Finally the winter meetings always drive the inmates nuts with crazy trades, signings etc and heightened expectation. My prediction is like almost all winter meetings this one will leave us flat, in other words much ado about nothing. And just to be clear, I’m not a big fan of Bourne. If I were the Cubs I’d put my money in pitching and try to trade for a big bat. They need a real bat in the middle of the order.

    • Justin

      I agree with the flipping of Bourn if we get him , but it would be nice to get a solid lead off man for a few years. Also we have a rotation set in place, and they have made it clear they are not going to spend big on pitchers. They need to get the Vitters and Jackson out of there while they still can and sign Bourn. Maybe they can put a package together of Vitters, Jackson, Soriano and couple more to Rays for Hellickson or Shields. Vitters is a bust and Jackson has more K’s then hits. That would give you your big arm in the rotation.

      • marcel91

        Jackson, Vitters, or any young player is a bust after only 2 months in the majors? wow. That means Mike trout and Anthony Rizzo must have also been busts after they struggled mightily in their very first callups last year. The fact they even made it to the majors is an accomplishment considering the high rate of top prospects who bust before they even touch the majors at all. Give these young players a break.

      • Mick

        So…you call Vitters a bust and point out Jackson had more K’s than hits but you think the Rays would give us Hellickson or Shields for them? Oh wait, you added Soriano so that makes it an even trade.

  • John

    I still can’t see Bourne at 5/80. Not much more than than would get Hamilton, who might be more likely to be worth the dough and certainly would provide more help offensively. And I am not really big on Hamilton.

    • kranzman54

      Yeah he is pretty exclusively a speed guy (9 HRs kinda came out of nowhere this year). Not sure he is gonna have that speed after the first 2 yeas.

  • IndyCubsFan

    Bruce Levine says that the Cubs are looking into Jason Grilli. Who the crap is that?

  • ssckelley

    I seen the update on Sizemore but I wonder if it would still do the Cubs some good by signing him to a minor league deal. You let him rehab in your facilities and if he does make it back then you have a damn good outfielder. Might be a low risk with a high reward type of deal.

  • IndyCubsFan

    Ah!! Thanks, Brett! Seriously, I’m in need of a BN iPhone app, buddy!

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      Thanks – just a matter of figuring out how to do one that really provides meaningful value to the reader (beyond just being an RSS feed).

  • kranzman54

    What do you think of us ending up with Shane Victorino as a stop gap guy until one of our prospects is ready? I see three teams that seem pretty active in the market as this article says and three guys (Hamilton, Bourne, and Victorino). Anyone think we can get Victorino a two year deal?

    • Matty V

      I’d like to see the Cubs try to get Victorino on a short term deal. I wrote about that in an earlier comment.

      • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

        I’m just not sure Victorino’s not done.

        • Matty V

          You could be right. Do you think he’d be worth a 2 year deal or is that too risky?

        • kranzman54

          As in you think he could land a Pagan type deal?

          • Matty V

            I wouldn’t give him a Pagan-type deal in regards to number of years. Two years would be my max. I’d consider the $10 mil./year salary for those two years though. Of course Brett could be right about him being done. His numbers have been regressing for a couple of years now. That’s why two would be my max.

        • kranzman54

          aghh sorry Brett, too many double negatives there, as in you don’t think he’s got anything left. May be true, but he had his highest steal total this year and his % was above his career average. He’s still got wheels, makes me think he’s still got a year or two.

  • bbrave307

    Everybody seems to think it is unlikely Theo and Co. would go for Michael Bourn and a 5/80 contract. I disagree and think I would be surprised if they didn’t lock up at least one bigger free agent this year. Here is why I say that.
    First let me tell you my assumptions. I think the Cubs have at least $100mil to spend per year starting in 2014 when Marmol and Garza are gone. Maybe even more if you consider MLB’s new TV contract. We have even more to spend in 2015 when Soriano is gone and the WGN contract has been rewriiten at what I would assume is a higher annual rate.
    Anyway, $100mil next year means we can have 4 to 6 really good players in the $16mil to $25 mil per year range. Probaly 6 to 8 of those kinds of players from 2015 on.
    I would be real supprised if we spend all that money next year. I think buying 4-6 guys in one year could upset the market. Lets get one or two of them this year and then we have only 2 to 4 to get next year and two more in 2015.
    You have to get a guy like Anabel Sanchez or Michael Bourn when they are available. We know we need an outfielder and a pitcher. Let’s get a good one. We don’t have to flip everybody at the deadline. We can have some carryover. Might help sell a few tickets too.

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      I’ll give you this: I’d be very surprised if the Cubs’ payroll is not well over $130 million by 2015.

    • Matt

      I don’t have a problem with spending money on high priced guys this off season. Anibal Sanchez would be someone I’d be in favor of. However, I’d rather not sign Bourn to a long-term deal. His game is speed and I don’t see it lasting the length of a contract that he’d demand.

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