I was at the store yesterday in my Cubs jacket with The Little Girl when I ran into a BN’er (Andy), who recognized me and stopped me to say hello. It was one of the coolest things ever, if you ignore the part where The Little Girl was chewing, inexplicably, on the metal backing behind her in the shopping cart. So, while I appreciated Andy’s thoughts on any ability I might have as a writer, I’m not so sure he’ll offer high marks on my ability as a parent.
- MLB has released 2012′s final payroll numbers, which are the actual, final calculations of “40-man rosters and include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned incentive bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions.” The Cubs came in at number 10, with a total official payroll of $107,708,021, which obviously includes money owed to Carlos Zambrano and Carlos Pena in 2012. If the Cubs’ 2013 payroll comes in at around $90 million, as is expected, they could fall in the 14th to 17th range in 2013, depending on what other teams do. The 2013 number, whatever it ends up being, isn’t going to concern me too much. But, as I’ve said before, if the rebuild is going well, the figure is going to creep up of its own volition in 2014 … and by virtue of some free agent spending/Major League trade acquisitions.
- Rick Hummel looks at the various moves/rosters in the NL Central, as things stand right now, and notes how it’s been a relatively quiet offseason for the teams (arguably the biggest moves was the Astros moving to the American League – *rimshot*).
- Carrie Muskat offers some Winter League updates, noting that Tony Campana hasn’t yet put it together in Venezuela, while Luis Valbuena’s scorching start has cooled a bit. Rule 5 pick Hector Rondon isn’t dominating the stat sheet (though reports from the time of the draft said he was throwing hard, and the Cubs obviously liked what their scouts were telling them), but Junior Lake continues to rip it up in the Dominican Republic.
- Marc Hulet and Mike Newman did a prospects chat at FanGraphs, and among their thoughts: (1) Oscar Taveras is a better future fantasy prospect than Albert Almora or Jorge Soler, but Taveras (a Cardinals’ farmhand) is considered to be the top offensive prospect in baseball by some, so that’s no real surprise (it’s a compliment to be in the question, I suppose); and (2) the Cubs have no motivation to trade Anthony Rizzo. Duh.
- The MLBullets at BCB react, among other things, to the would-be R.A. Dickey trade.
- As you do your holiday shopping, might I suggest a lovely shirt from the BN store? They’re the perfect outerwear for someone who already has everything.
I think if the child is in the cart, you have won at parenting. Great job, Brett!
yes, chewing on the metal backing is much preferred to every food item in sight
You have a (3), but there is no third item.
Also, why on earth would the Cubs think about trading Rizzo?
They wouldn’t.
Hard hitting reporting from Carrie Muskat.
Also found out that they are not interested in free agent Milton Bradley, I’m sure
Whoops, my bad. It wasn’t Muskat saying that.
Now I feel like a dolt.
ha, some interesting comments at Fangraphs and Muskat’s:
1. Fangraphs – Mr. Touche Mr. Toupe aparently is smoking dope.
2. Muskat – a poster wailing about mosing Casey McGehee.
mosing/losing whateves
why on Earth would the Cubs ever think about trading Castro – yet his name is thrown around about as often as Soriano
I understand musing about trading Castro since the return could be huge and his future is kind of uncertain.
Thanks for the quality articles everyday, B-Tizzle.
Cubs were 41-48 when Campana played in 2012 (I’ve been waiting for the right moment to use that stat). He’s pretty much the best player on the team if you go by that, so I hope he starts lighting it up in winter ball.
Haha. Love it.
When I saw that record I thought to myself “41-48? See, Campana sucks.” It was really depressing a couple of seconds later when I realized that 41-48 is probably better than anyone else on the team.
It is if you don’t count Soto. Cubs were 26-26 when he played before they shipped him off.
So THAT’S where the season went wrong!! Play Soto every day and we’re a .500 team! In that case, we should even have played him on offdays, holidays, birthdays, nowadys, doomsdays, yesterdays, Faradays, everydays, playdays and paydays too . . .
Shoot. I actually have to work today, but I think that would be a fun project to figure out.
I’m not much of a hockey fan, (Who is, these days?) but I really like the +/- stat. Look, we’re not saying player x is better that player y, BUT they do score a lot more when player x is out there.”
Is this what you were looking for Pete? I can send the excel if you want it. Looks like Reed Johnson had the best record for the Cubs.
Player Appearance Record Starting Record
W L W L
Bryan LaHair 49 81 35 51
Tony Campana 41 48 18 20
Dave Sappelt 8 18 6 10
David DeJesus 54 94 43 82
Ian Stewart 20 35 18 31
Starlin Castro 61 101 60 101
Darwin Barney 60 96 56 91
Anthony Rizzo 34 53 34 51
Alfonzo Soriano 54 97 53 96
Brett Jackson 13 31 12 26
Welington Castillo 12 40 10 36
Steve Clevenger 24 44 21 31
Adrian Cardenas 12 33 3 6
Luis Valbuena 37 53 31 43
Josh Vitters 11 25 8 16
Joe Mather 38 65 20 30
Koyie Hill 2 9 2 8
Blake Lalli 1 5 1 2
Anthony Recker 7 15 7 7
Jeff Baker 35 48 21 27
Blake DeWitt 4 14 2 3
Marlon Byrd 11 2 11 2
Reed Johnson 36 40 ? ?
For this year I like reed johnson, he plays hard career .280 hitter?
On campana here is 1st 2 seasons 400-600 ab for other top leadoff hitters
like campana: avg .263 .obp .306
brett butler avg .229 obp .312
bob dernier avg .260 obp .320
mike bourn avg .240 obp .294
“One of these things is not like the others,
One of these things just doesn’t belong,
Can you tell which thing is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?”
(Hint: look at differences while I do an extended guitar solo. ROCK ON!)
Ooh ooh ooh, I bet it’s the age at which those first 2 seasons occurred!
after 2 seasons brett butler age 26
bob dernier age 25
micheal bourn age 25
oh and tony campana age 26
I am not saying he is going to be great, but he is almost free
and if he does well then you trade him or play him. but he
has some value for 2014 or maybe not but at least you find out
All except Tony Campana have at least one “B” in their name?
Brett Butler had a terrible 90s sitcom?
Wait, so what you are saying is that Campana is worth more than Campana? 54-97!?!?!?! WHAT A BUM!
He’s worth more if his first name is Scott…
That’s awesome. Thanks!!
Better yet, by my count, the Cubs were 18-20 in games in which Campana started, which is a more meaningful stat than games in which he appeared.
I decided to factor in his overall contributions like late inning pinch-running and base-stealing which are where he’s really important.
Yea, but it’s also possible he’s being inserted late in games that are already lost.
That’s true. It’s still about the same ratio either way for him though.
do you have those numbers i would be curious in what they show
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=campato01&t=b&year=2012
Ok, of the games the Cubs won while Tony scored a run (ergo, had a positive impact on the score), there were 6 games where the run differential minus his R and RBI was 0 or a negative number (therefore he “caused” the winning run (nevermind the whole RBI is a team stat thing)).
Last year he had 41 games in which he had a PA (fairly evenly split 20-21 w/l)
In 18 of his starts the Cubs won
21 they lost
23 of the games he came in after the first inning they won
27 times they lost
26 of his 89 games Tony scored (or batted in) a run
What does any of this mean? Either sabermetrics is dead wrong and a guy with a .273 wOBA broke it or absolutely nothing.
I think all we can say for sure is that Campana has an enormous glove.
You know your team’s in bad shape when this much discussion is given to a 6th OF.
BUT HE HAS AN sCRAP+ of ELEVENTY!!!! He hustles, he has heart, he knows how to win!!!!!!
ZOMG!! Just give him the MVP already.
That’s only if you use Fangraph’s sCRAP+, which is problematic because it overestimates mojo and does not factor agency in its calculation of hustle.
Bwhahahahahahha
Haha. sCRAP+. The stat invented by delusional Cubs fans trying to convince themselves that their favorite player is actually worth something. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe baseball’s all time sCRAP+ leaderboard is:
1. Ryan Theriot
2. Reed Johnson
3. Tony Campana
4. Mike Fontenot
true
Lake hit a grand slam yesterday and has his average at .324 with a .394 OBP.
He loves post-regular-season ball. If only the Cubs could make use of that …
And he’s playing centerfield. If Lake could actually stick and centerfield, that would be something else.
Well, left and center.
My best hope for Lake is that he can learn a few other positions and come up as a utility player and pinch hitter in the short run with an eye for a starting role if he plays well enough to justify it. The Cubs will need a third baseman and possibly an entire outfield for 2014 (if they trade Soriano).
The best hope for Lake is that he realizes his ridiculous talent level. Then it doesn’t matter where you play him because he is crazy talented.
If Lake could be an average defensive center fielder, he’d probably be as well-regarded as Brett Jackson. With a good offensive 2013 at AAA? More so. That said, I haven’t heard of too much positive on his time in the OF yet. Might need a lot of work, and Cubs don’t have a ton if time – 2013 will already be his second option year.
He has the tools for center, given time, but I think he’s a better fit for right.
If he can’t stick on the infield. That is by no means certain. I suspect he is playing OF over the winter just to get his bat in the lineup.
I’m not sure his bat will play outside of the middle (or third/second if he’s a quality defender) as a regular. I’m still waiting to see a full, regular season where the numbers match the talent.
How is Lake’s defense? Will it play at 2nd or 3rd? If so I’d like to see him switch now while in AAA to get the nuances down. Maybe learn a little faster so he can be prepared for it if he gets called up. Barney had to learn 2B on the fly and I think he could have benefitted from more reps in AAA.
Rizzo might get killed if Lake played 2nd.
The only thing he needs to figure out is how to get on-base consistently enough to take advantage of his speed. Unfortunately, that is a really big thing.
Sorry, thought i was replying to Chris’ comment about Campana. So to clarify- I am talking about Camapana (although this “on-base” comment could go for most of our Cubbies).
Well, Campana’s batting eye was never great, and it’s pretty obvious that just batting practice fastballs in the strike zone can get him out, so it’s tough to see how he’ll get too high an OBP. Even guys like Brett Gardner and Brett Butler (high OBP, low slugging) hit the ball hard when pitchers leave/left it over the heart of the plate: but Campana basically gets the bat knocked out of his hands, it seems.
And, yeah, batting eye has been an issue with a lot of Cub farmhands.
again campana batting average has been .260 and .265
in 2 partial years hit 300 in the minors his on base percentage
was around .310 this year. 5 more additional on bases
(bunts or better contact) last year his OBP would be .335.
Yes he has zero power unlike Brett Jackson, but jackson
hit .250 in the minors and not even .200 in the bigs. while
jackson is down at AAA working things out why not see
what you have with campana. he hustles he drives other
pitchers crazy he is free. we are not winning in 2013 why wouldnt
we see what we have.
Getting on base 5 more times would be an 8% increase. Basically, we know what we have – a guy with 80 speed but not much else.
If you were to extend his PA out to a full season he’d have to get on base 17-18 more times then he has shown the ability to do so.
if he would have reached base 5 more times in his
185 plate appearances he would of had a .335
on base percentage. 5 extra times isnt easy to do
and maybe he cant do it, but you say we should never
find out?
I pitched in college (small school wasnt that good) I know it has an affect on a pitcher when someone like that gets on base. extra throw overs less concentration on the hitter more fastballs for the #2
hitter castro would have monster numbers with campana on base again if he can get on base enough.
It’s not hard for us to check to see how MLB hitters and pitchers do with runners on 1b vs. not. The difference is not very large and is mostly due to the defense not being in optimal position.
The guys who make it through the professional pressure cookers in the minors and into the majors tend not to have the same issues as the small college guys.
In the case of pitchers, the more probable issue is not loss of concentration, but a change in motion. Pitching from the stretch and pitching from the windup are somewhat different things. FanGraphs recently analyzed this for Greinke: the rap is that he doesn’t pitch well with runners in scoring position. It turns out that the real difference is the location of his pitches when he throws from the stretch vs. the windup: and he frequently pitches from the stretch with men in scoring position.
For batters, as Kyle notes, the difference is never large and it never predicts the difference for the next month, next half a season or next season. It’s just binomial error. The affect of speedsters also is weak: a few analyses suggest that there is an increase in both walks and K’s, but that makes sense given that guys deliberately take the first coupe of pitches and there often are pitchouts. It’s not a really strong effect, however.
One of the reasons he only had 185 plate appearances is his inability to get on base; plus, he’s not a very good defensive player. His speed covers up for his bad angles, positioning and inability to read the ball.
Brett,
I always suspected you were making money hand over fist and now I see you have piles of $100.00s to take pictures of. Was that your Christmas spending fund?
The $100s are only on top.
Yeah, to cover up the measily $50 bills.
These.
He must come from old money, too, because I haven’t see that style of hundos in a long while
Maybe he found the jars of money he buried in the backyard anticipating Y2K?
well shit, better get those reburied for Friday…
I have my last final on Friday. I’ve been in the library 32 straight days. If the world ends on Friday I’ll be VERY pissed.
Here’s to hoping it passes on by and you have a good finals!!!!
A little random, but have we heard anything about a new deal with Jaye Chapman? I didn’t think it would take this long.
Nothing. Maybe he’s holding out for the slim hope of a big league deal somewhere? Or maybe just a minor league deal with an org with fewer guys like him.
Man, it’d be a little bit of a shame to lose him, he had some promise.
No, comments about the $107M…
Cubs paid over a million dollars per loss if that’s what you’re getting at.
It would be good to pay a lot per loss…The Yanks have had seasons where they pay $4 million per loss. It’s when you’re paying a lot per win that you’re in trouble.
Shows you how hard it must be to get started in an MLB front career if the guy who buried a franchise in the ground can immediately get a new job. Pretty sure the guy who lost 2 billion for UBS wasn’t immediately hired at JP Chase Morgan.
Is this the method used to compile payroll luxury tax, too? Do they pro-rate (subtracting out) the total money paid to players on the DL or sent down? I always get confused when I see these numbers; and (mostly for Yankees and the Yankees-West (Dodgers)) can’t figure out if the “final number” includes the tax for those teams.
I was little surprised to learn numbers like the Zambrano money are included.
Loved the phrase “creep up of its own volition”; sort of a cross between Lincoln’s second inaugural address and a seventies invasion-from-outer-space movie.
Yes – those pieces are pro-rated.
I like Harold Reynolds but he just suggested a Peter Bourjous for Matt Garza….really???
What the hell is he smokin?
The “speed is more important than OBP” drug.
I agree, compare micheal bourn (if I had to pick I would want bourn today)
career BA .274 OBP .338 but after 600 big league at bats BA .240 OBP .294
those numbers are way below campana’s so far.
Two thoughts, why would you want to waste the money on Bourn when DeJesus matches his numbers, minus the steals for the fraction of the money and I like Bourjous as a premium fielding center fielder but the hitting is below average, no way he is worth a Matt Garza straight up, no way!
I absolutely dont think campana is the long term answer, but
as of yet no one knows.
Why no love for Sapplet? Seems to be putting up good numbers in the Venz. winter league.
I like him, he would be OK platoon with campana or dejesus. what are
his stats in venezuela?
Avg=.366
OBP=.411
SLG=.554
Wow, leading off the bullets of BleacherNation…I am honored. Great meeting you Brett, and I didn’t even realize your daughter was trying to eat the shopping cart. All I know is she sat quitely the whole time…something my children are not too good at.
Hooray! I win at parenting!
(Thanks, Andy.)
The Cubs’ payroll in comparison to the teams above them concerns me, not because I don’t expect the Cubs to increase payroll in 2014, but rather because the gulf between the Cubs and the top spending teams is vast.
The difference between the Cubs, at #10 on the list, versus Washington at #16, is only $11M. But the difference between the Cubs and six spots above them (The Angels at #4) is $52M.
We’re seeing a crowded middle of the pack with the Cubs, Cards, Mets, Brewers, etc… and then huge step up once you get to the top five payrolls.