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carlos villanueva blue jaysWith the Cubs reportedly agreeing to terms with free agent outfielder Scott Hairston last night, and having looooong ago agreed to terms with free agent pitcher Carlos Villanueva, the Cubs will soon need to add a couple more players to the 40-man roster.

The problem? That 40-man roster is already at 40. And it has been for quite some time now.

The long delay in officially signing Villanueva – we’re well over a month now – strongly suggests the Cubs have been exploring options more beneficial and more creative than simply picking a player on the 40-man, and designating him for assignment. Perhaps the trade options they’ve been exploring have been conditioned on other moves around the league that have only just now shaken out. Or maybe the trade options are conditioned on other teams pulling things off that they haven’t yet been able to pull off. There’s so many possibilities that range from a big deal involving guys like Alfonso Soriano or Carlos Marmol, down to a minor prospect swap involving a Logan Watkins or Junior Lake. Clearly, things are being discussed – and have been for a while.

In any case, at some point, the Cubs are going to run out of time to be creative, and they’ll simply have to go the DFA route. With Hairston coming into the fold, the chances they’ll be able to clear enough 40-man space organically through trades is even smaller.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the current 40-man, and discuss which players the Cubs are most likely to DFA, and then likely expose to waivers (an exercise we performed earlier this Winter – the 40-man has been a constant issue).

Bringing Hairston on board would give the Cubs nine outfielders on the 40-man roster, which is a very healthy amount. It’s fair to assume that the Cubs will look to drop an outfielder, and it may well be Tony Campana. Valuable to the right team, Campana’s limited skill set (elite speed, fringe everything else) isn’t a perfect fit for a team like the Cubs, which is not expected to be so good that a 25th man like Campana is a desirable thing. If Campana was DFA’d, and then waived, would he clear waivers? He actually might. Teams’ 40-man rosters are very full this time of year, and the aforementioned skill set is really only attractive to a small subset of teams. If none of them can take him on, then he’d clear. Still, it’s a risk.

If the Cubs booted a pitcher to accommodate Villanueva, the names considered would probably be Lendy Castillo, Chris Rusin, Brooks Raley, and Hector Rondon. Assuming the Cubs were set on keeping their Rule 5 pick Rondon, and assuming they like the depth that guys like Rusin and Raley provide, the loser could be last year’s Rule 5 pick, Castillo. That might leave a sour taste in some mouths, given the lengths to which the Cubs went to keep him last year, but he might be the guy with the best chance of clearing waivers. He remains a talented, but unpolished arm, which could be difficult for a team to stash on the 40-man at this time of year.

Steve Clevenger is another possible DFA candidate, but I doubt the Cubs would pull that trigger unless they knew he would clear waivers, or believed that someone like minor league signee JC Boscan can adequately serve as a third catcher on the roster.

Thoughts? It’s a tricky issue when you have to discuss risking losing young players for nothing, but that’s the nature of a roster like the Cubs’, which features several young players who aren’t yet ready to contribute at the big league level.

Hopefully the Cubs can pull off a trade or two to moot this whole discussion.

  • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

    Agreed on Campana & Castillo and if done right now I’d say we have 75% chance on both of then clearing wavier and if they get picked up its no big deal neither are ever going to amount to much more than a 25th man.

    • http://401klogic.net Westbound Willie

      Brett- when does a roster move have to be made? How long can this go on for?

  • Spriggs

    Campana and Lendy Castilo would be my choices. The case for Campana is the easiest to make (as Brett had done), and there is a good chance he clears waivers. I think Castillo has the best chance of clearing waivers. Keeping him in hopes of justifying all the moves they made last year – doesn’t sound like something Theo and Jed would do — so if they keep him, they must really believe in him. I just don’t see a big asset here though, or one with a lot of potential.

    • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

      Speed is the least desired skill for a MLB unless the player has other skills to support the speed. If he had 30+ HR power but nothing else he’d have value to teams, if he could play good defense he is an asset, and so on but if the only skill is to run really really ridiculously fast but nothing else then he has very little value.

    • blublud

      I will guarantee you that Campana doesn’t clear waivers.

      • Mike

        @ blublud. Totally agree with you. Someone would find a way to nab him.

        • Whiteflag

          Oh well.

      • http://thecubcontrarian.blogspot.com Kyle

        Your guarantee is noted.

  • Beer Baron

    I see little risk in dropping Campana. If you’re hell-bent on having a weak hitting fast guy on the roster, there’s still Szczur – and he can catch and throw and occassionally hit the ball out of the infield. Then barring a trade I think Castillo is the next candidate. But this won’t be the last we hear of the 40-man issues as you have to assume one of the minor league invites will make the team (Lillibridge or the Japanese leftie?) so you’ll need to cut someone then. Time to purge…

    • yield51

      I think you are spot on Baron. They aren’t going to carry 6 OFer’s this year, and Campana offers the least production. They do probably need to add another IF/utility type to the roster, and that guy is probably Lillibridge, so the 40 man really stands at 43. Even if Campana is claimed will we miss him? We all expect this team to get better, we don’t need him now, so hopefully we won’t need him later. Hopefully the other two guys to go will be in a trade (Sori, Marmol), because I think any pitcher that is cut will likely be claimed. We saw what happened during rule 5, Cubs lack high end, but definitely have the mediocre depth.

      Rex Banner

      • willis

        There’s no risk in losing Campana. He does nothing to help this team continue to grow and his skills have been so overblown by Cub fans it’s kind of funny. He isn’t good at baseball. So what if we lost him?

  • Brian cubs fan

    wonder if a trade is in the works like Phil Rogers said in the trib. I think DeJesus or Soriano might be dealt

  • JR

    Campana sucks. I can’t believe he is still on the roster. Who cares about speed if your bad at everything else. I am sure DFA’ing Castillo would be a lot tougher since they had to drag him all last season on the big league team. And he does have upside in an area of need for the Cubs.

    • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

      “Campana sucks” – prepare for a Scrappy Slap

      • JR

        Ha… I’m not even sure what that means Goat, but Campana can take his slap/scrappy act to some else’s 40 man roster. A guy who can only haul ass is about the last thing the Cubs need.

        • blublud

          And as long as the cubs look at things this way, it will be another 105 years before we win another World Series.

          • JR

            I don’t agree with you at all, but that’s cool. You can think Campana is good that’s fine. But I think he is bad at baseball and it has nothing to do with the word “scrappy”. Just my opinion..

            • blublud

              My opinion has nothing to do with scrappy. But it’s hard for a guy to recieve inconsistent playing time and put up consistent numbers. When given consistent playing time, he has produced. The scrappy element is only extra, though it can have an effect on the outcome of games reguardless if people joke about it or not. I know because as a 5’9″ 150 lb kid at the time who’s fastest clocked 40 time was 4.41, I was probably the definition of a scrappy baseball player.

              • King Jeff

                He had pretty consistent playing time from May thru June, in that time he hit .252, that’s not producing.

              • JR

                Nah man, I am not trying to hate at all on Campana and what he’s done. It’s pretty amazing that he’s been successful enough to make it as far as he has. But in my opinion dropping him is a no brainer. To me it seems like what he brings to the table would be a match for a team like the Angels to enjoy the luxury of his speed.

              • JR

                And I am not sure why scrappy gets thrown around here anyways. And I am not saying it’s you at all Blublud. But I feel like that word is always thrown around, not sure if it’s a joke that I missed or what. Personally I could care less if a guy was a dick, bad locker room guy, not scrappy enough, didn’t take direction well or whatever. I am all about getting studs on the Cubs roster and don’t care about the other baggage. Well, unless they are a psycho like Bradley, or Big Z thats a little to crazy for any team…

              • hansman1982

                The consistent playing time is a farce of an argument. A player like Campana (-0 Power and only 1 tool) would be grossly exposed with full playing time.

                • http://thecubcontrarian.blogspot.com Kyle

                  Campana’s hit tool is probably a 40. It’s not as if he literally only has one tool. More like 1.8.

          • http://www.gravatar.com/avatar/653cc0c5f0eded621ab13b4f631de7da.png Cizzle

            So if we add 39 more of him, can we win next year? I always knew the lack of straight-line speed was what was losing us games last year.

      • SalukiHawk

        I agree that is is no big thing to let Campana go. Remember Doug Dascenzo? Heck, at least he could pitch. Remember Sam Fuld? These guys are a dime a dozen. Elite speed means nothing if all you’re good for is as a designated runner (see Herb Washington). I don’t get the Tony Campana love fest. Sure, he’s a guy you want to like–scrappy, hard nosed. No denying he plays the game the right way. He just doesn’t play it very well or very often.

        • Mat B.

          Don’t forget Miguel Dilone. Let’s see if anyone remembers that name.

    • blublud

      So for all you metric guys that say Campana sucks, the metric actually say Campana is not just a good defender, but a damn good one. I also recall that Campana had only one shot to be a starter last year and perform pretty damn well. Screw Scrappy, the guy is a good player. Just because you don’t hit a bunch of HR does make you sorry.

      • King Jeff

        Campana had a negative UZR rating last year, that’s not damn good, that’s pretty damn bad.

        • blublud

          Also, accounting for stolen bases, Campana hit .273 verse righties for what would be considered a .633 sluggin percentage. Shierholtz would be .287 with a .482 slugging percentage. I personally don’t think Shierholt value is near Campana’s, but I guess that why The Epstien’s make all the money.

          • Edwin

            A stolen base has nothing to do with slugging. Stolen bases do not move base runners over, or drive in runs. Hitting a single and stealing a base is entirely different than hitting a double.

            • blublud

              I agree, but Campana had a high BA the shierholtz last year, so according to your arguement, then Campana is better at that to.

          • hansman1982

            How do SB account into SLG?

            A better way to look at offensive value would be to look at wOBA (with SB) (wOBA is a metric that takes the run value of a players offensive production (looks at BB, HBP, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, CS (SB and CS are not included on Fangraphs wOBA but for this argument I have calculated them in)) and places it onto a scale similar to OBP.

            2012 Campana: .299
            2012 Schierholtz: .317
            2012 Jackson: .288
            2012 Hairston: .342
            2012 DeJesus: .331

            • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

              I like to think of SB as a part of SLG, too (as long as you discount for CS). A single and a SB is the same as a double, for purposes of SLG (in essence).

              • King Jeff

                How does a single and a steal equal a double if there is a guy on first when the future stealer is at bat? The guy on first has a chance to score on a double, not so much on a single, and even less likely on the subsequent steal attempt.

                • blublud

                  Slugging does’t mean RBI, it just accounts for how many base you can get per at bat. A steal equals an extra base, so it certainly does effect Slugging. However, you are correct that SB does not drive in runs.

                  • blublud

                    Sorry, SB do not drive in runs.(not does not)

                  • King Jeff

                    I know technically it doesn’t mean the same. I just always associated slugging with a guys ability to hit for extra base, which is huge with guys on base. Campana doesn’t give you that threat, which is why I don’t associate steals with slugging. Also, as TWC says, he can steal a base without even coming up to the plate.

                    • blublud

                      So what about a leadoff Double. I guess a leadoff double shouldn’t be counted as a double either since it doesn’t drive in runs. However, that leadoff double does play into you Slugging percentage. If Campana Bunts for a leadoff single, something he needs to do better, and steals a base on the second pitch, he still standing on 2nd base with no out’s, the same as the leadoff double. But Campana then has a better chance to score from second on anyball to the outfield, and possibly some infield hits with his speed(I’ve seen and done i before myself) then probably any other player in baseball. That is added value.

                    • hansman1982

                      Because he isn’t standing on 2nd base for the start of that next at bat, that player could GIDP, Campana could get thrown out, his base stealing could be a distraction to the hitter…

              • blublud

                This is exactly what I did. I took a single away for a CS, and made a single a double for a SB. It’s doesn’t account for Driving runs in, but it does account for slugging.

                • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

                  I think you are doing voodoo saber to justify Campana’s value. It’s okay to admit that Campana is everything you wish a player to be but to ignore the stats that people smarter than we have developed and that the Cubs FO uses just to make Campy look good is not helping the team. What I hope is that he gets DFA picked up by another team only to get cut so that this scrappy discussion can finally end.

                  • cub2014

                    arent we rebuilding this year and flipping potential talent?what i dont get is why wouldnt you see what you have in
                    campana 300 hitter in the minors .267 hitter in limited action in majors, i can tell you it screws up a pitchers rythm
                    with a guy like that on base, a few more successful bunts
                    and we are talking .290avg. But obviously FO is going to go with mediocre Free Agents this year.

                    • hansman1982

                      opposed to mediocre 5th outfielders masquerading as starting CF?

                    • blublud

                      Damn, I could not have said it better myself. This why I have been defending Campana.

                • DocPeterWimsey

                  A caught stealing is approximately equal to a walk (or a negative walk), not a single. A walk just adds a baserunner, which a CS deletes. Singles can advance men from 1st to 3rd (or rarely home), and can drive in guys from 2nd.

                  A single + a stolen base is worth less than a double for several reasons. On one end, doubles do better jobs of advancing runners than singles, and a guy who hits a double is on second starting with the first pitch to the subsequent batter. Thus, a 50 (singles + SB) from one player do not create as many runs as 50 doubles from one player.

                  Ultimately, that’s why runs-created metrics (which look at the expected numbers of runs created/lost) are even better than OPS. However, the OPS components of RC are so big that it is easier to just stop there.

              • TWC

                That’s ridiculous. You can get a SB after a HBP or if you’ve been brought in to pinch run (and I’d venture to guess that half of Campana’s SB came after the latter). There’s absolutely no way that SB should be counted as part of SLG.

                • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

                  I’m not saying literally – I’m not saying include it in the calculation. I’m saying that, for some players, when you review their slash line only, you have to also consider the ancillary value of stolen bases – and one way to conceptualize that is as a part of slugging. For all the reasons you guys have said, I’m not in any way advocating a change in the stat. It’s just a way of thinking about it.

                  • King Jeff

                    Yeah, but how many of us do you know of that only look at the slash line when evaluating a player’s performance? We’re a far more savvy bunch than that here.

                  • TWC

                    Campana’s speed is certainly part of the calculation of his valve. But suggesting, as you did, that one could/should think of SLG as including SBs because the end result may be similar is crazy. It’s like saying one should think of your hit totals including HBPs because you reached first base after each.

                    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

                      It’s not crazy if all you’re talking about is the individual performance of the offensive player. Having runners on base is not a product of anything the batter did.

                      I’ve already agreed that a double has a different kind of value (and slightly higher) than a single and a stolen base (though there is a disruptive effect to the latter that is hard to quantify). The small step I’m taking is far short of crazy, homes.

                    • TWC

                      SBs are most certainly part of a stat that measures a player’s offensive production. But that stat is definitely not SLG. That stat is RC.

                    • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

                      If SB had meaningful value with SLG would Ricky Henderson be the greatest player ever? A WAR of 100+?

                  • blublud

                    Right, Brett. Also, can you account for the attention that Campana recieves when on base and determine the effect it has on the current AB. I don’t have these stats, though I am sure they probably exist somewhere.

                  • cub2014

                    a hit and a SB doesnt have same value as a double, but
                    there is value there ask the hitter who is up next and ask the infielders and the pitcher. But one with true speed that is one in just a few in the league. it greatly affects the game.

                • hansman1982

                  Campana had 7 SB last year from Pinch Running. They created 1.75 runs but they were not equal to 7 extra 2B.

                  Basically those 7 SB were just short of having the value of a solo home run.

              • hansman1982

                It’s close…according to the numbers used in wOBA a single + SB = 1.15 runs wereas a 2B = 1.24 runs.

                Factoring in Campana’s CS rate last year (1 time every 10 attempts) it brings his 1B + SB to 1.1 runs.

                I will dig later to see how many of his SB were on PR plays (and it would be really interesting to see how many of his doubles were solely due to his speed (meaning an average runner would have a hard time scoring from 1st and or 2nd or would lead to a close play at home from 2nd).

                • blublud

                  Campana did not get caught stealing 1 out of every 10 times, it actually 1 out of every 11 times. 30SB, 3 CS, 33 attempts. How big of a difference does this make HM.

                  • Bigg J

                    Well he can be a bench player that comes in late in games and steals bases, but he can’t evern get on base. If he could consistently get on base, he would have 60-70 steals a year. That is a difference!

                  • hansman1982

                    that’d make his 1B + SB worth 1.1045 runs vs. a double that is worth 1.24 runs.

                    Or if you remove the SB he earned while PR (if he were a full-time starter he wouldn’t PR) you get 23 SB vs. 3 CS or a 11% CS rate or once every 9 attempts.

                    • blublud

                      Right, so pinch Running SB should still account for one base, just not a double.

                    • hansman1982

                      Yup, they account for .25 runs each. So if he were to have any semblence of power and could just hit 1 more double he’d equal their production.

        • http://thecubcontrarian.blogspot.com Kyle

          While that’s true, UZR is notoriously finicky in small samples. Multi-year splits are desirable to get a true shot of a player’s defensive abilities. He’s a +10/150 defender for his career.

      • Edwin

        In 2011 his fielding was 10.8, which is very good. In 2012 it was -.5. Probably not enough data to say that he sucks, or that he’s a damn good defensive player. I’m sure with his speed he has great range, but his weak arm is a serious liability.

        It’s not that he doesn’t hit home runs, it’s that he also doesn’t hit doubles, doesn’t hit for average, and doesn’t draw walks. His wRC+ was below 63 and 65 in 2011 and 2012. Even if his defense is great, he still doesn’t provide much value.

        He’ll be 27 this year, so while his numbers might improve, he probably won’t re-invent himself. When he’s been given opportunities to play at the MLB level, he sure hasn’t earned more playing time. I don’t remember when he performed pretty damn well. You’d have to refresh me when that was exactly.

        • blublud

          Last year when he came up, he was hitting over .300 for atleast a couple weeks, and then was bench so some dude named Joe Mather could play and “add some pop to the lineup” I pretty sure is what Svuem said. Yeah, that was a joke.

          • King Jeff

            That is revisionist history. He played and was starting fairly consistently from May thru most of June, he started out well, but tailed off terribly, very much like Bryan LaHair last year. 48 games and 28 starts in a 2 month span, and he hit .252 during that stretch, that’s not good enough.

            • blublud

              How many pinch hit were involved there that drove his average down. That can completely effect his average, as pinch hitting is not easy.

              • King Jeff

                I was looking at his starts, and there were a lot of the 0-5, 1-5, 0-4, 1-4 variety.

                • blublud

                  Ok, thats fair, but I’m sure you’ll see those with Soriano, Dejesus, Fielder, Pujols, Braun, Trout and every other player in baseball too. I not saying Campana is an all-star, I just believe if he was given a chance to play everyday, he could be an above average player. Maybe I’m wrong, but i think he deserves a chance.

                  • King Jeff

                    I think he deserves a chance too, and I think he’s fun to watch when he’s on base. I just don’t think he’s going to have enough of an opportunity right now to keep him on the roster, and that he’s not good enough at everything besides stealing bases to take a platoon spot this year.

                  • hansman1982

                    If he were given a chance to play every day he’d have a .305 OBP, .310 SLG and 100 steals. But he’d still have a .299 wOBA.

                  • Kygavin

                    He wouldnt be an above average CF, he would struggle to be average. He doesnt walk, he strikes out (23% of the time in games that he has started for his career), he has 0 power which means his average will be tied to his BABIP (which has been .333 in his career starts) but even with that he still has a .259 batting average in his starts

                    That being said i DO thing Campana has value, due to his one plus-plus tool but its a tool that the Cubs cant get the most value out of because they will be a 75ish win team not a 90 win team where late game pinch running would be a bigger need

          • hansman1982

            I looked at his stats from Apr 24 to Jun 20 where he got a good chunk of his starts. He started in 60% of the games and played in 77% of the games and his wOBA was a tremendous .288 across 150 PA.

            He just isn’t that good at generating runs.

            • blublud

              Honestly I have no Idea what wOBA means, I heard of it several times, but I’m not exactly a metrics guy when it comes to baseball, which is funny considering I’m an Industrial Engineer.

              • ETS

                Offense
                Defense
                Pitching
                Win Probability
                Principles
                PITCHF/x
                WAR
                Business

                wOBA

                Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is one of the most important and popular catch-all offensive statistics. It was created by Tom Tango (and notably used in “The Book”) to measure a hitter’s overall offensive value, based on the relative values of each distinct offensive event.

                wOBA is based on a simple concept: Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes that they are. On-base percentage does too, but does one better by including other ways of reaching base. Slugging percentage weights hits, but not accurately (Is a double worth twice as much as a single? In short, no). On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8).

                Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.

                The wOBA formula for the 2011 season was:

                wOBA = (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.26×2B + 1.60×3B +
                2.08×HR + 0.25×SB -0.50×CS) / PA

                These weights change on a yearly basis, so you can find the specific wOBA weights for every year from 1871 to 2010 here.

                Context:

                Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average wOBA varies on a year-by-year basis. It is set to the same scale as OBP, so league-average wOBA in a given year should be very close to the league-average OBP. To see the league-average wOBA for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards.

                Rules of Thumb
                Rating wOBA
                Excellent 0.400
                Great 0.370
                Above Average 0.340
                Average 0.320
                Below Average 0.310
                Poor 0.300
                Awful 0.290

                http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/woba/

              • DocPeterWimsey

                Or to put another way, wOBA is proportional to the expected number of runs created per PA by a player.

                • hansman1982

                  Really? So a .400 wOBA player should create 1 more run every 10 PA than a .300 wOBA player?

                  I didn’t know that part, I thought the scale was done just to make it more fan-friendly.

  • blublud

    I know Campana will probably be DFA’d, but I think Cabrera, Dolis, one of Raley or Rusin and Valbuena should be the candidates to be cut. This signing is making the Shierholtz signing look worse then what it originally looked. Hopefully we see a lot more Hairston then Shierholtz in the OF. I personally don’t want to see Shierholtz on the team. I guess this guy is the knew Volstad. I told everybody about Volstad last year and was right, and I’m putting Shierholtz in the same category. You don’t play for a team for 6 years and not get a chance, then get traded in the middle of a pennant races by the eventual champions, only to be non-tendered by the team to aquire you and they need OF help when you still have arbitration left and is slated to make less then what you recieved on the open market if you are any good.

    • Bigg J

      I don’t know why you would cut Valbuena when they just agreed on a new contract (they might as well let him go before) and Shierholtz will platoon with Hairston with the righty and lefty matchups. Why not pick up Shierholtz who has killed NL Central pitching and has hit extremely well in Wrigley? It’s only 1 year and if he does good then great and if he does bad then cut him lose. He is a experiment player

      • blublud

        So he’s an experiment player, with worse numbers last year then Campana, but he cost us close to 2 million more then Campana.

        Since most people think Campana is “trash”, it’s like this. You got a yard full of trash you want to get rid of, but yet you are looking through everybody elses trash trying to see what you can salvage. I don’t see the point.

        • King Jeff

          Campana hits .230 against lefties, Schierholtz hits .284, that fact alone makes Schierholtz the better fit for the Cubs at this point. Campana should clear waivers and will probably fit into the teams plans if they trade away one of their veteran players(DeJesus, Soriano).

          • blublud

            last year, Shierholtz hit .173 against lefties, and is not even a .284 hitter for his career, not sure where you got your numbers from. My numbers are base off counted SB’s for doubles, so while they aren’t measurement used in baseball, they are numbers that can be calculated. I have no Idea where you .284 against lefties come from.

            • King Jeff

              Sorry, I crossed that up. Schierholtz is the lefty half of the platoon with a .287/.360 split, Campana was .273/.303. Campy won’t take that half of the platoon from Schierholtz or DeJesus, and won’t supplant anybody against lefties.

              • blublud

                Campana is actually a way better hitter then Shierholtz against lefties, which is not saying much at all.

                • blublud

                  small sample size also.

                  • AB

                    “small sample size”

                    What about campana’s defensive metrics you are citing??

                • King Jeff

                  That doesn’t help much because the one who is playing will probably only play against RHP. I like Campana, and hope that he sticks, he can be a great weapon of the bench. My concern is that he is buried so deep on the bench that he doesn’t get a decent enough shot at proving himself or getting better. It is a risk, but if it comes down to it, I’d like to see him start at Iowa and play every day until the outfield platoon logjam clears itself up.

        • hansman1982

          Right now Campana is the 7th best outfielder on the team behind Soriano, DeJesus, Schierholtz, Hairston, Sappelt, Jackson.

          You dig through your neighbors trash because while he may not want/need that 2 speed blender, it may be an upgrade to you.

          • blublud

            Campana is currently the forth best OF on the team behind, Soriano, Dejesus and Hairston.

            • hansman1982

              Not according to any offensive metric that is useful in determining how many runs he generates a year.

            • http://none millhah

              and sosa belongs in the HOF….lol

          • Mick

            Agreed, I don’t think Campana will pass through waivers and the Twins come to mind as a possible claiming team. They traded away 2 CF’s this offseason and 3 of their 6 OF’s on their 40-man roster are top prospects which they’ll want to delay service time for. It’s time for Campana to move on, he’s obviously not going to be a star and we’ve not only got better MLB players but prospects like Sczur, Jackson, and Sappelt are knocking on the door. If anything, I’m surprised Campana’s held on this long.

            The other player I’d waive would be Castillo because I think he’d make it through waivers. If not then oh well, the Cubs have a glut of relievers just like him who are much further along.

            • cub2014

              knocking at the door? Jackson’s minor league stats are mediocre,his major stats are horrible. New swing I hope it works, he does have upside. But he is similiar age to campana and looked really overmatched
              whereas Campana looked like he belonged. I know he has zero power.
              Sczur?Ouch. Sappelt everyone agrees is a 4th or 5th outfielder at best.
              So none of those 3 impress me one bit. Again I am not sold on Campana
              but we dont know what we have, until he plays. But sounds like not likely that will happen

              • Mick

                Campana, Sappelt, Jackson, and Sczur are all on the 40-man roster so we’ll see who the front office agrees with.

                • Mick

                  Szczur, Szczur, Szczur, man that’s a tough name to spell. Can I get a nation of origin or what?

        • Bigg J

          He is a great defender with a plus arm and he can hit way better then Campana. Campana can only run, but can’t get on base to use his talent. The Cubs have been patient enough with him. Remeber they are signing players to possibly flip if they do well and Shierholtz can be one of those players if he does well. I doubt he is in the future plans for the Cubs.

          • blublud

            That is the stupid piece of crap I have ever seen. I hate the sign players to flip. Let put together players to win a championship. If I was a GM, I would be looking to sign players that I never have to trade because they are the kind of players I wan’t on the team, not sign players so I can flip them to somebody else’s team to help the win a championship.

            • CubFan Paul

              Flipping short term assets is a way to bypass the new CBA and acquire blue chip talent (Vizcaino, Villenueava, Loux) without being limited to a draft pool and restrictions, meaning by flipping assets (Baker, Garza, Feldman, DeJesus, Sori) you can fix/updrage your Farm faster than “looking to sign players that I never have to trade”

              • http://thecubcontrarian.blogspot.com Kyle

                I think people are too enamored with what happened last year and assume it’ll happen that way this year.

                We’ll see a lot less flipping this year is my guess. These guys were signed because the team wants them.

                • hansman1982

                  We will probably see the same amount of flipping:

                  1. Garza
                  2. DeJesus
                  3. Marmol
                  4. Soriano or Schierholtz

                  matches with

                  1. Dempster
                  2. Johnson
                  3. Maholm
                  4. Soto

                  • hansman1982

                    Add in a 5th or a third one to #4 of either Baker or Feldman (probably Feldman, IIRC, Baker has another year of control left)

    • Bigg J

      I am just not sure why you would want Campana over Shierholtz. Shierholtz way better defender and gets on base way more then Campana. The Cubs have given him the oppurtunity to show that he can get on base and he just cant. And obviously the Cubs didn’t bring in Shierholtz to hit against lefties when stats are that bad. That is why they grabbed Hairston.

  • Bigg J

    “What’s the likelihood that the Cub’s DFA Campana for Vill and Castillo for Carp?” This is what I posted yesterday and thought that would be the best fit for the Cubs and now with Hairston in the mix they almost have to drop Castillo. Everyone stated that Castillo would never get DFA’d, but he had injury problems last year and he got stomped when he was in so I think he would have the best chances to clear as well. They need to make these moves soon or if I was Vill I would walk (but I am guessing 2 yrs/10mil he can’t find anywhere else)

  • Corey

    Kind of a noob here, but how does trading fix the 40 man problem? The whole idea of a trade is to get something equivalent to what you gave, so wouldn’t we still have the problem?too many players?

    • calicubsfan007

      @Corey: Not really. It is entirely possible that the Cubs can get minor leaguers in return that don’t need to be on the big league roster. Thus, it clears up space on the 40.

      • Corey

        Oh, duh. Trade for prospects, but Campana/wendy wouldn’t really net any good prosepects lol.

    • mudge

      Or trade 4 players for 2

  • calicubsfan007

    I agree with both JR and MG. Castillo and Campana are the most likely, although it would be kinda ironic that the Cubs this year are so willing to cut Castillo loose this year after going to great lengths to keep him on the team. My money is on those two. But a trade at this point wouldn’t surprise me.

  • Mat B.

    I would dump 3. Castillo, Campana and Rondon. The team we got Rondon from would need to pay their small sum to get him back. Does he have to go on their 40 man? If they choose not pay to get him back, does he still go through the waiver process? If he does what are the odds he clears? I think we would wind up still having all three when all is said and done.

  • http://www.opportunity.org FawnLeibowitz

    Upton to Braves complete- 6 player deal.

  • Cory King

    Delgado Prado Nick Ahmed and Zeke Spurill going to Arizona for Upton and Chris Johnson is it just me or did Arizona just get fleeced?

    • Mick

      I’ll play conspiracy theory and say that the 40-man roster issue was tied to the DBacks and Upton. I think the Cubs had something working that could have sent maybe Baez, Watkins, Jackson, Lake, and/or Vizcaino to the DBacks for Upton. The Cubs got word last night from Towers that he was going with the Braves’ offer so the Cubs signed Hariston. Then this morning the Upton trade was announced and if all points lead to C then the Cubs will make their 40-man roster moves today or tomorrow.

      • CubFan Paul

        makes sense…

      • yield51

        The Cubs would be giving up WAY too much in that scenario. I don’t doubt that there was some sort of dominos falling effect to the trade and 40 man, but the Cubs could get a lot more than Upton giving up those prospects.

        • blublud

          That offer was better then what Arizona got, so if they turned that trade down, it’s cause Upton didn’t want to be a Cubs. No way the Cubs ever make that trade. ZYou are bordering more olong the lines of a Stanton or Price trade then an Upton trade.

          • blublud

            Edit Button

  • http://bleachernation.com hutch

    Soliid trade for both dbacks and braves. Thats what a real trade looks like. You have to give to get. Thought dbacks were gonna get a little more. Cubs were never gonna get upton you cant trade your garbage and get a good player. Also it looks like teheran is not as high on peoples boards or he would have been included

  • http://bleachernation.com hutch

    Campana is one of the worst players in the league. please stop talking about him your wasting space

  • http://bleachernation.com ramy16

    I agree with you blublud.. I think we jumped the gun a little to sign schierholtz..when we could have had Hairston all along! However Schierholtz does have a club option

    • DocPeterWimsey

      This is not an either/or situation: in fact, it’s the opposite where Hairston is concerned. He is an out-machine against RHP and thus not someone that you can start more than one game in 3 or 4. Even then, Hairston is not quite the dextral LaHair: although Hairston’s slugging is good against LHP, his OBP is still pretty bad (0.325 with an isoD of only .05).

      So, if the Cubs had signed Hairston earlier, then they would still be looking for somebody who can hit RHP.

      • blublud

        That guy is Tony Campana. LMAO

        • DocPeterWimsey

          Oh, is there another guy named Tony Campana in MLB? I didn’t know that.

          • http://none millhah

            He’s 6’2″, 220, hits AND gets on base.

  • RoughRider

    Blublud made a vague comment, but no-one has made mention to the pressure that a base stealer like Campana puts on the pitcher and anyone who is succesfull over 90% of the time does put pressure ,not just on the pitcher, but the infielders as well. I’m not defending Campanas’ position on the team but that is part of the equation. To say Campana is bad isn’t fair in my estimation. He’s good enough to have made it to MLB. He may not be right for the Cubs at this time but you can be sure that he will be playing MLB with someone.

    • DocPeterWimsey

      The reason why people do not mention it much anymore is that there simply is not much good evidence that pitchers perform worse with very good base stealers on base. Now, there is evidence that some pitchers perform worse with runners on base: but that comes down to differences in their stuff when pitching from the stretch vs. pitching from the windup. Greinke is a good example: his heat charts simply look different in these two cases, and batters do a lot better on a couple of his pitches when Greinke throws from the stretch.

      As for Campana not being bad simply because he made an MLB team, well, that logic gets us nowhere: if making an MLB team means that you are not bad, then there are no bad players in MLB. When we say “bad,” we mean “bad relative to the average MLB guy playing his positions.”

      Moreover, on what sort of team does Campana sit on the bubble? A bad one. Good teams do not have guys like Campana on their 40 man roster: they sit in AA.

      • blublud

        I beg to differ. Campana will get claimed and probably by a contender. Or he may not be DFA’d at all if Dejesus is trade.

        LF Soriano
        CF Campana/Sappelt
        RF Hairston/Shierholtz

        • Bigg J

          I’m sorry I don’t think Campana would get claimed. I don’t see anyone taking a 40 man spot to a guy that can’t get on base and would just use him for pinch running situations.

          • Whiteflag

            I am sure most teams have a speed guy in their system, they could call up for pinch running situations. Doubtful Campana gets claimed unless a team plans on stashing him in AA until the playoffs. Which isn’t even possible right? He has to be on the major league roster.

            • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

              I think all the claiming team must give is a 40 man spot do I think he could bf stashed in AAA but most teams use those 40 man spots to protect legitimate prospects.

              • hansman1982

                If nothing else, one of the teams at the back end of the AL would claim him to try and pass him back through waivers and send him to AAA.

                This would give them a useful player and have the offense to live with his horrendous OPS.

              • Whiteflag

                That’s what I was thinking.

      • RoughRider

        Saying Campana is bad is essentially saying that a relief pitcher is bad because he can’t start or a middle reliefer is bad because he can’t or doesn’t close. You could say Campana is great because relative to other position players he’s , if not the best, one of the best base stealers in MLB.

        • DarthHater

          Disagree. Teams have plenty of reasons to devote roster slots to guys whose only skill is middle relief. They have a lot less reason to devote a roster slot to a guy whose only skill is running really fast.

          • RoughRider

            I wasn’t refering to roster spots. I was refering to calling Campana bad. I’m also not saying that Campana should be on the Cubs. I am saying on the right team and under the right cicumstances Campana can be a valuable asset.

            • DarthHater

              Okay. I misunderstood with you were saying. Don’t disagree with that. :-)

              • DarthHater

                *what* you were saying

          • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

            Really really really ridiculously fast

  • Don

    The most logical and easiest two players to trade now are DeJesus and Marmol. Trade both to Detroit for Porcello.

    • DarthHater

      Of course, if you trade two MLers and get back one MLer, you have only opened one slot on the 40-man roster. So another move would still be necessary.

      • TWC

        What about DFA-ing Campana? Anyone have any thoughts on that?

        • yield51

          Comment of the day!

        • RoughRider

          TWC
          The Wise Craker.

          • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

            What’s a Craker? ;)

            • RoughRider

              Cracker.

  • Fastball

    My three guys you wack off the roster today and not think twice about are:

    Camp – old and can’t throw hard enough to break a window. you don’t cut a kid with potential and keep this guy around . He had a career year last year. if you keep him he will dfa’d for performance reasons by May 1st.

    Clevenger – We can find a catcher if it gets to that point. He is AAA lifer at this point.

    Campana – He isn’t any good except he’s scrappy and fast. scrappy? don’t you to get on base to br scrappy? sometimes he’s scrappy.

    Those are my 3. Why am I picking 3? Because we will sign Bourn next week.

    • Devdogg

      Why would we sign Bourn? We already have Sori, Schierholtz, and DeJesus and now Hairston. There would be no point of signing him.

      • http://thecubcontrarian.blogspot.com Kyle

        Yeah, a Bourn signing seems pretty unlikely at this point. We’ve moved on. Unless he wants to come back and choose us for a pillow contract, that ship has sailed.

        If we did, it’d have to be paired with a Soriano or DeJesus trade.

      • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

        SIGN ALL THE OUTFIELDERS!

  • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

    I never thought that I’d love a site that worshipped Dick Tidrow, had lengthy discussions about “scrappy,” and embraces cat pajamas and banana hammocks as quality fashion and enjoy talking beer. BUT I DO! Long Live BleacherNation

    “Where a Scrappy Tidrow Drinks Beer in a Banana Hammock with a Goat”

    Boom 2013 tshirt slogan.

    • wvcubsfan

      BleacherNation: Where drinking beer with a scrappy Dick Tidrow and a goat while wearing a banana hammock is the cat’s pajamas?

  • Carne Harris

    Are we sure none of these guys have any options left? I know the point for a lot of them was to move them to the roster to protect them from the Rule 5, so I’m guessing the answer’s no, but maybe there’s a special case in there somewhere.

    • http://thecubcontrarian.blogspot.com Kyle

      Options let a player who is on the 40-man stay off of the 25-man. It doesn’t save you a 40-man spot.

      • Carne Harris

        Thanks, that makes sense why all the option talk goes away in the offseason. I’m still pretty fuzzy on it.

  • Jason

    I can’t imagine anyone being much worse than Clevenger, so take him off. Clevenger essentially was Koyie Hill without the elite defense last year.

  • ruby2626

    Just my 2 cents but I would keep Campana. Just seems like he changes way more games than you would expect him to. That key steal, breaking up the DP, going first to 3rd or a hit to left, whatever. Remember the way he took out that 2nd baseman early last year. I don’t think we’re looking at the finished product, he’s young enough to start getting a walk here or there and to move that OBP to something reasonable.

    Rusin, Raley, Clevinger and 4th Lendy. Soft tossing lefties are a dime a dozen and let’s not forget clevinger hit a robust .150 in a pretty fair amount of at bats after going on the DL 14 for 28. Castillo to me seems like a head case. He seems more concerned about trying to intimidate hitters and prove he is a hard___ than actually getting the hitters out. Can’t remember that former Cub who played with the Cardinals, that headhunter that was always starting brawls, reminds me of him.

    Not saying the Cubs are going to sign Bourne but if the market keeps falling and we’re talking bargain prices and years, hey let’s go shopping.

  • josh2

    Man, it took a long time to scroll past all the Campana hatred. Sad

    • Other Kyle

      This is a weird foray into message board psychology: one group overvalues a player and manufactures fairly flimsy positive spin while another group irrationally attacks him. It is not so much about Campana as either a human or a baseball player as being on the wining side of the argument. If Campana loses his spot and has to get a job at Dairy Queen, Team Hater wins. If Campana clings to the bench or gets a spot on another (presumably better) team, Team Rosecoloredglasses wins. I am personally a member of Team Usefulbutreplaceablebenchplayer.

      • DarthHater

        Yea, this is so different from the more typical, non-wierd psychology of message boards.

        BTW, GO TEAM HATER! ;-)

        • DarthHater

          Err … *weird* [sigh]

      • MichiganGoat

        TEAM GOAT – attacking scrappy since 2010

  • Cooper

    I have a friend that is a Red Sox fan, and therefore an American League fan. He hates the NL style of play. Most notably, bunting or other means of sacrificing your at bat to move a runner up one base. He refers to these as slappy hits. For advanced statistics, those are noted as SHits…

  • Die hard

    Since Soriano is destined for DL -knees and is taking up space for younger OF why not waivers now?

    • ChicagoMike702

      I don’t understand why so many Cubs fans don’t understand that Sori can HIT! He’s the best hitter on the team and he’s a stand up guy. The lineup is terrible with him, just imagine it if you take his 32/108 and .821OPS out of the middle of it.

  • http://www.survivingthalia.com Mike Taylor (no relation)

    Brett, can we just have a story on the front page that reads: CAMPANA…

    …and then let everyone have at it?

  • Rmoody100

    It’s been done in the message boards.

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