matt garza cubsLeading up to, and then after, Matt Garza’s most recent start – a dominating effort in Milwaukee on Thursday, chatter about Garza as a trade piece increased exponentially.

  • Given that uptick, Nick Cafardo reports that, according to two big league sources, Garza is expected to be moved sooner rather than later – i.e., well before the July 31 Trade Deadline. An NL GM told Cafardo, “There’s a lot of competition for [Garza]. I think Theo is getting inundated with calls for him, so he’s probably the hot name.” I doubt the Cubs move Garza before the All-Star break unless they get an absolutely ridiculous deal … but as the rumors heat up, I now think that’s a real possibility. I’d still probably bet on Garza being dealt after the break (and after Ricky Nolasco is moved), but nothing would surprise me at this point.
  • Cafardo mentions the Orioles as a particularly good fit for Garza, and …
  • Among a group of names (which includes Scott Feldman), the Orioles are now considering Matt Garza, according to the Baltimore Sun. The issue for the Orioles in a deal for Garza, for example, is going to be the difficulty in matching up in value. The Orioles aren’t going to deal top pitching prospect Kevin Gausman, and they probably aren’t going to deal big-time pitching prospect Dylan Bundy, who set to have Tommy John surgery (though I don’t know that the surgery would necessarily scare the Cubs off from a talent like Bundy). From there, the system is a smattering of interesting types, but no one that obviously stands out as a headliner fit in a Garza deal.
  • Indeed, Jon Heyman reports that the Orioles’ interest in Garza has ticked up after previously being lukewarm, but they believe the price is too high right now. Given the Orioles’ system, I’ve got to believe that they have been given the impression that the Cubs are going to want one of Gausman or Bundy in a Garza deal – otherwise I’m not sure I see how they could conclude the price was too high, given what they have.
  • San Diego beat writer Bill Center chatted with Padres fans on Friday, and Garza’s name came up frequently. Center says Garza, together with Orioles pitcher Jake Arrieta, are the two pitchers he hears most connected to the Padres, adding that the Padres are more in on Garza than Ricky Nolasco. He says that the price for pitching at the deadline is going to be “sky high,” and as many as seven teams are in on Garza. (I suspect it’s more than that.) Recall, San Diego was the destination in the first solid Garza rumor of the season.
  • Jon Morosi reports that, although the Giants would like to acquire a multiyear pitcher, they do have interest in Garza. The Giants are also looking for an outfielder.
  • The Rockies are “aggressively” scouting starting pitchers, including Garza, according to the Denver Post. The Rockies are interested in Kevin Gregg, too, so they might want to try and grab a package at the Chicago Cubs Store. On prospects, though, I’m not sure how well the two teams line up – the Cubs are looking for impact pitching prospects, and that is definitely not the Rockies’ system strength.
  • Paul Swyden at FanGraphs took note of the rising Garza stock, but dug into something we’d noted over the past couple weeks: yes, Garza’s last three starts have been dominant, but they’ve come against the Astros, Mets, and Brewers. And they came on the heels of arguably the worst start of Garza’s career, which was against a very good Reds team. Swyden’s piece downplays the importance of those three successful starts, and contends that, because of Garza’s injury history and his career numbers (which are good, but not Number Two material), a team trading for him should not expect that they’re getting the apparent stud that faced the Astros, Mets, and Brewers. It’s fair to raise that flag of caution, but it’s also fair to note that beating up on bad teams is something good pitchers do – you can’t punish them for it. And the truth is, a handful of dominant starts probably won’t jack up Garza’s value so much as it will simply convince interested teams that he’s as healthy and effective as he’s ever been (and the opinions on that effectiveness might vary among teams). So, if you were inclined to want him before, you probably feel justified in going hard after him now.
  • SenorGato

    what were the Bowden trade ideas?

    • Crockett

      I already explained two of them?!

  • Chris

    With a number of potential suitors for Garza looking like they aren’t strong fits in terms of having the pieces the Cubs may be interested in (impact pitching)…would seem to suggest a deal for Garza may wind up being a multi-team deal, wouldn’t it?

    • Chad

      I doubt that, but maybe. I think it will end up that somebody will give up more than they would have liked to.

      • Crockett

        Gotta hope that it’s Daniels and Martin Perez is very close to being a Cub…

        • BABIP (MichCubFan)

          you really like Martin Perez, don’t you.

          • Crockett

            Compared to the apparent other possibilities? Yes, very much so.

  • Jason Powers

    Just saw the international pool:
    two SPs, Jen-Ho Tseng (Yu Darvishy – minus the breaking balls, for now, 90+ FB)
    and Marcos Diplan (compact fluid delivery, good FB, not outstanding, doesn’t look full grown, but a nice uncle charile for a 16 year old)

    Will see what our front office wants….

  • ari gold

    Ok guys, let’s say the rolls were reversed , the Cubs are in the playoff hunt and were trying to trade for Garza. What trade package would you give up right now to get 2 month of Garza? Just curious.

    • Rebuilding

      If we were truly in the hunt and had everyone else on the staff: Samardzija, Wood, Feldman and Jackson (so Garza would be our #2 if we got him). I would be willing to give up Alcantara and Pierce Johnson plus some unnamed arm they liked at A or below. So basically two guys in the 5-10 range (although our Top 4 are better than almost anyone else) and an arm

    • Spriggs

      I prefer English muffins to most rolls… rolls too often get reversed for my taste.

    • Brett

      I always find this to be a very useful exercise.

      The question for Cubs fans who want/expect a top 30 prospect for Garza … would you deal Soler, Baez or Almora for Garza if the Cubs were within a game or two of the Wild Card, and had a serious rotation hole?

      Seems like an obvious “no” to me. But would I deal anyone else in the system, including the guys in the 100 to 150 range? Absolutely.

      • Bric

        Soler (without the minor injuries that currently probably take him off the table anyway) I would definitely flip if it brought in a Garza type vet to get to the playoffs, absolutely. Almora, probably not, and Baez definitely not unless we were getting at least a comparable low level player in return also.

        But the trades of Dempster, Soto, Lilly et al. over the last few years show that vets traded in isolation aren’t going to bring back much. You’re going to have to package some prospects, too, or you may as well just wait until they walk and get the draft pick. Richie Robnett! Kyle Smit! Those trades rocked!

      • On The Farm

        I agree, looking around the league while I would love to land a top 30 guy, I know its not reasonable. So discount using Almora, Baez, and Soler. Now would I give up say Alacantra and Johnson (two top 100-150) for a #2 who has pitching expirence (and sucess) in the AL East and has been a solid contributor for a WS caliber team, I would consider that trade.

        I would even trade Johnson and a high upside OF guy like Szcur if it meant landing a solid peice like Feldman (assuming my team already has a solid 1-2, Feldman is pitching like a great #3). Maybe I am crazy, but parting with that talent wouldn’t upset me if it got me one of the top arms on the trade market.

    • DarthHater



    Garza, barney, gregg and bjax to the tigers for Porcello, costellanos and low level sp with upside not sure about their farm system. Porcellos stuff will play in the national league and hes only 24. He has a nice sinker better than feldmans which would make him a nice addition to playing at wrigley. Peralta is going get suspended. gregg speaks to their bullpen woes. Bjax to give him a change of sceanary and a prospect to show tiger fans they arent completely selling out for the future. Garza and Barney have been linked to the tigers in the past. The tigers are only a couple of innings from falling outta 1st. I can see this happening. Thoughts?

    • Chad

      Not going to get Costellanos. End of story.

    • Bric

      Not sure the Tigers would go for that but how about Shark and Vitters to the Tigers for Porcello, Castellanos, and a low level high upside pitcher…

  • Tremendous Slouch

    I apologize if this has already been asked and answered, but is there any chance Chase Headley could be included in a Garza trade? His stock isn’t nearly what it was at the beginning of the season. And while his pedigree is fairly limited to this point, I wouldn’t mind seeing him as part of the core over the next 3 to 4 years. That is provided he reassesses his contract demands. I definitely wouldn’t want to over reach, but if we could get him on a 3 or 4 year deal in a reasonable range I’d jump. He turns 30 at the start of next season, so while on the cusp I think he’d still fall within the range of being in his “prime years”.