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matt garza cubsYou can get ready for the next wave of “Matt Garza’s last start as a Cub” pieces in the next 12 to 24 hours. He starts tomorrow night against the Cardinals.

  • Speaking of those Cardinals, Buster Olney says there is some “buzz in the industry” that the Rangers and the Cardinals are the teams most likely to land Matt Garza. The Rangers have been a given for a while now, but that’s the first of any kind of significant buzz I’d heard about the Cardinals. I suppose they could stand to replace Joe Kelly in the rotation with Garza (assuming they don’t believe Chris Carpenter will healthily return over the next month), but I’d be surprised if they’d be willing to commit serious prospects. In fact, I can’t help but wonder if Olney meant to type “Indians,” since they – like the Rangers – have been heavily connected to Garza. If it wasn’t a typo, though, you can forget any dreams of Shelby Miller or Oscar Tavares or even Carlos Martinez. They aren’t happening in a deal for Garza. Even still, the Cardinals have plenty of talent to be an attractive trading partner. Would they deal that talent to the Cubs, though?
  • Speaking of the Indians, Jerry Crasnick hears that they’re hoping to land a pitcher with multiple years of control left, rather than a rental like Garza. Well, I mean, sure. Wouldn’t most teams prefer to land a pitcher with more control than a rental? But those pitchers tend not to be as available (or good) as the rentals. Garza’s the arm that’s on the market, Indians. And he’s the best one.
  • Speaking of the Indians again, Ken Rosenthal doesn’t think it’s a good idea for them to go for broke on Garza. His rationale seems a bit thin, though, apparently resting on the failed Ubaldo Jimenez deal two years ago and the Tigers’ lead in the AL Central. To me, we’re talking about an organization with a fading fan base that clearly decided to “go for it” this offseason. They’re actually close to succeeding in that goal, despite a weak roster before those “go for it” moves. Are they going to stop now when the one thing they clearly need more than anything else is a rotation upgrade? No, maybe they don’t send the Cubs an over-the-top package, but they’ve got to be involved.
  • Speaking of the Garza price, Jon Morosi hears that it’s still quite high. He says it’s partly because the Cubs feel they should get a premium this early in July (i.e., because the receiving team is getting more starts).
  • I mentioned it in the Bullets this morning, but Keith Law believes the Cubs can get a top 100 prospect for Garza (presumably in a package), but not two. A top 100 and a couple organizational top 15s has always sounded about right to me.
  • Olney’s piece also discusses why the Garza heat seems to have died down in the last week, and it’s everything that you’d expect. Uncertainty associated with teams deciding whether to buy or sell and uncertainty associated with the possibly impending Biogenesis suspensions.
  • King Jeff

    Garza to Cards would be horrible. Even though he’s been hurt, he’s become one of my favorite players. Love his attitude, love how he is with teammates, love his fire. It would be a very bitter pill to swallow for me to see him in a St. Louis uniform.

    • Featherstone

      Maybe then he can help the cubs with their other goal of a high draft pick this year.

    • On The Farm

      As much as Garza has come to love Chicago I think even he would think moving to STL would be a tough pill to swallow

      • Jason

        Players don’t care who they play for these days. As long as they get their money they’ll play for any team.

        • Kyle

          When has that ever not been true?

          • hansman1982

            Back when the players had no choice who to play for!

        • hansman1982

          Eh, Anibal Sanchez sure wanted to play for Detroit.

          • Edwin

            After driving the offer up from Detroit, sure.

            • hansman1982

              Best of both worlds. He gets to play for the team he wants to AND gets the money!

    • Timmy

      yeah for once king jeff is right. don’t trade a star pitcher to our rivals. it’s just wrong. unless they give us a player that we just can’t refuse. but not for the likely “decent” return.

  • Ben

    I’m not sure Rosenthal is really thinking there. Sure, getting a starter with more years of control would be ideal….but the cost is higher, and most teams aren’t willing to deal guys like that. I mean, look what it cost to get James Shields. The Indians need to go for it, because the Twins are going to be good very quickly, and I don’t see the Tigers disappearing for a few years. Garza makes a ton of sense, and wouldn’t cost them their top prospect. Rangers make a ton of sense as well, especially with other pieces going both directions.

    • JB88

      The other interesting piece of fodder that has been making the Twitter rounds for the last few days is that the Indians are supposedly not enamoured with Yovani Gallardo.

      Okay, if that is true, then they shouldn’t overspend on Garza and don’t want Gallardo, who exactly are they going to acquire that actually improves that team? Not your best work, Rosenthal, not your best work.

  • cubchymyst

    Garza to cardinals would suck, but it work out in the long run. Remove a couple strong prospects from the Cards, and if Garza doesn’t sign with them it would be a net gain for the Cubs and a loss for the Cardinals at the end of the year..

    • JB88

      Who actually wins trades with the Cardinals though? They seem to have a real talent for unloading secretly broken prospect pieces who never amount to much.

      • cubchymyst

        Much like the braves with pitchers. Not saying it is ideal but still your removing prospects from the Cards for a rental that they might not resign. However, it could work in the long run.

      • Cub Style

        Mark Mulder trade comes to mind very quickly.

    • willis

      But he would. He’d love it there, love the winning and would be a 2.00 ERA machine dominating the central for years to come. It would be the worst possible outcome hands down. Would be disasterous.

  • Adam

    I’m really not opposed to the Cubs keeping Garza and making him a Qualified Offer.

    • On The Farm

      A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

      If they don’t resign Garza, getting a prospect for him (or even a couple guys for him) is more valuable then drafting one guy.

  • AD

    Kolten Wong or Michael Wacha as the headliner would make a lot of sense. Both would make an immediate impact.

    • On The Farm

      I don’t feel like the Cardinals would do that for a rental, their GM seems really smart and doesn’t seem like the type to move Wacha for Garza.

      • AD

        I agree that one of those two would be somewhat of a pipe dream, but I’m not sure who else the Cubs would ask for.

    • bbmoney

      I’m not all that interested in Wong. Limited upside from everything I’ve heard since he was drafted. I feel like the Cubs have enough 2b prospects / guys who might end up there with more upside

  • Kyle

    Going by the last three years, every time Matt Garza starts, there is a 5% chance of him ending up on the DL. I really think we’re playing a dangerous game here holding out for the moon.

    • IlliniBone

      What?! Thats terribly inaccurate.

      He has well over 50 starts in the last 3 years..

  • Eternal pessemist

    But the draft pick you get from him signing with another club is at the end of the first round (i believe) and would need to be better than a top 100 prospect, plus two other “good” prospects you woul likely get in a trade.

    • North Side Irish

      Depends on who signs him…technically, it could be as high as #11, but is far more likely to be in 20s or after Round 1.

      And considering that four, maybe five players from a draft are immediately Top 100 prospects, getting a Top 100 guy plus more is FAR more valuable than the pick they would get from the Qualifying Offer.

      • ssckelley

        No, the Cubs would get a compensation pick which in between the 1st round and the competitive balance picks. The Cubs would not get someone elses #20 or whatever they draft at.

        • North Side Irish

          You’re right…#11 is the highest pick that can be lost. The team that signs him loses their pick, the first round gets condensed, and the Cubs would get a pick at the end of the shortened 1st round.

  • steve123

    Ideal and do-able trades. All rankings from MLB.com
    Cubs & Pirates-
    Cubs- Nate Schierholtz & Dioner Navarro
    Pirates- Tyler Glasnow (pirates #17 prospect), PTBNL

    Cubs & Tigers
    Cubs- Garza & Gregg
    Tigers- Smyly & Drew VerHagen (Tigers #15)

    Cubs & Rangers
    Cubs- Alfonso Soriano, Cash
    Rangers- C. J. Edwards (Rangers #15), PTBNL

    PTBNL’s should depend on how each player performs, but ideally I think a 17 years old $500,000 signed International prospect works.

    • Eternal pessemist

      Garza and greg for some dude and tigers #15? Are you a tigers fan???

      • Jason

        Smyly isn’t some dude he has 153 IP in the majors and a 3.29 ERA at 24 years old. Saying that, I don’t see Detroit giving up one of the very few bullpen arms that has been doing good. Doesn’t make any sense to fill one hole by creating another.

        In a deal with Detroit it would be Porcello not Smyly going somewhere.

    • Rebuilding

      I like these scenarios from our perspective, but don’t think you can get Glasnow for that package. Whatever his preseason ranking was its a lot higher now. Also don’t think you can get Smyly w/o Russell somehow being involved since Smyly is their main lefty out of the pen. I actually think Porcello is more realistic because Garza would replace him in the rotation.

    • Rizzofanclub

      Glasnow is really really good and will be a top 100 prospect next year. If the cubs could get him and a Andrew Oliver for Garza and Soriano (cubs paying all but 5 million next year and all but 3 million this year) plus some fillers. That would be a great deal.

  • Jason ( Thundermug)

    19 Days Left for the Matt Garza Rumors

    I am happy at any of these 3 scenarios

    A) Trade HIm for the Right Package B) Sign him to an extension C) Keep him and offer him a one year deal @ 14 million and if another team signs him we get a Supplemental Pick

    A of Course would be the best scenario but if teams don’t want to give us anything good as in prospects in return well then Keep Him and go with the B or C route with Garza

  • Mordecai Brown

    I hope we keep Garza and sign him to a new contract. What we would get for him in a trade appears to be minimal, far below his market value, and trading someone that good to a division rival is just begging for trouble.

    • JBlades

      How about trade him and get some prospects, then sign him in free agency. In my opinion, that would be the best scenario.

  • JBarnes

    Maybe this is the reason Martinez was called up right before the series…it’s a dream I know but it would be worth trading him within the division for that. Although it would suck because I could see Garza resigning in a place like STL.

  • Ivy Walls

    Three things:

    The emotional outcries about trading a rental chip to an arch rival is laughable, I would love to get a Brock back for a someone who might get a sore arm down the stretch…do it!

    Now as for what Law said, a Top 100, I think it is more a Top 50 and then a Top 5-10 and Top 20 with the Cubs sending a Top 10 castaway (Vitters or Jackson)

    As for trading, the timing is when another team says we will match your price, but the closer to Aug 1 the better if/when Baker seems to be getting his arm and self ready to start.

    • Ivy Walls

      There is another thought or strategy, sign Garza to an extension and trade Samardzija to the D Backs for a Top 25 that the D Backs have plus exchange system guys like I mentioned, Jackson and/or Vitters for a player of need for the Cubs.

      • YourResidentJag

        And that’s my strategy. Good call.

  • Kubphan82

    If they don’t send Miller or Taveres we don’t do the deal… The only reason to deal with the Cards is to rake them over the coals. It should be the most outlandish deal, by far.

    • Tom A.

      And, they still owe us a bunch for Brock !!!

      • Ivy Walls

        no crying in Baseball, just work a revenge…

    • Dumpgobbler

      I highly doubt the FO wants to set a foolish standard by demanding something outlandish from the Cardinals. I’d assume that sort of thing would make it around the league and make you look foolish. I could be wrong though.

    • m@

      IMO the return for dealing Garza to any NL central team has to be better than any other offer they get. If the return is basically equal, why would you take the risk of dealing within your own division?

      • http://www.viewfromthebleachers.com Norm

        Well, yeah, for ANY team to get Garza, they have to make the best offer.

        • Cubbie Blues

          Eh, I would guess an offer from the Cubs close to but not quite there would do it. Kind of like Anibal last year.

      • Josho

        actually think it would be the other way. If it’s equal, Cubs do the deal in the division. Garza is a rental, potentially gone after this season. If we can weaken the Pirates’ or Cards’ system by sending them Garza for some of their top prospects, we do it. Helps our future, hurts theirs. Now the other teams may not want to trade within division for that reason, and its usually the BUYERS that have problems dealing in division NOT SELLERS.

  • Tom A.

    I also hope we sign him for 4 more years !

  • Zachary

    Garza for Wacha straight up

  • itzscott

    A trade with the Cardinals could be sweet….

    I can just see an Ernie Broglio for Lou Brock in reverse thing happening to even the score like 55 years later.

  • Alex S.

    If they were going to trade Garza to the Cardinals…it would be rough, for sure…but I wouldn’t mind Trevor Rosenthal as a Cub. The Cubs could slot him in as a starter (maybe starting next season considering he’s spent this year in the bullpen). It would take more than just him, though. If they could get Wacha, that would be insane. The only other thought I have is If Tyrell Jenkins was having a solid season, I’d say including him would be a big addition.

    • X the Cubs Fan

      Rosenthal would be our closer.

  • Mick

    My gut’s telling me the dark horse in the Garza sweepstakes is going to be the A’s because when/If Colon gets suspended they’ll have a gaping hole in their division leading rotation. Sonny Gray makes for an interesting centerpiece and then take your pick for throw-ins after him.

    • Blublud

      I didn’t know colon was in that group, unless I just haven’t been paying attention.

    • AlwaysNextYear

      Pretty sure I read that Colon would not be suspended as he has already served the time.

      • Mick

        If MLB determines that Colon lied to investigators last year about his connection to Biogenesis he could be suspended 100 games.

        • AlwaysNextYear

          Highly doubt it.

          • Mick

            Highly doubt that Colon lied to investigators about his connection to Biogenisis? Why? Every other player has lied about it and will suffer stiffer penalties because of it, for example A-Rod and Bruan.

            • Cub Style

              We have no idea if he was one of the ones interviewed. At least to my knowledge.

    • Annonifan

      I am very skeptical about any trade that Billy Beane would agree to. That guy uses voodoo and a dousing rod when he is evaluating trades. Anyone who he gives you will have less value than you think.

      • Rebuilding

        He makes some clunkers like everyone else. I bet he wishes he had Gio Gonzalez back. He made a good trade with the White Sox (who traded him twice) to get him (Nick Swisher). Got back AJ Cole, Brad Peacock, Tommy Milone and Derek Norris. Love what he does, but our guys are just as smart

        • hansman1982

          Carlos Pena…

          • Rebuilding

            Yeah. It’s impossible to know how accurate books/movies/stories are, but he is always portrayed as pretty impulsive. Whether true, who knows. I do think it is an advantage that we have, in essence, two GMs so someone is there to pump the brakes

        • chirogerg

          Why would he want Gio back? Milone has a 224Ks/64BBs in 306.2 IP. They used Peacock to land Jed Lowrie, who’s been very good this year .302/.370/.426 and average D at SS. Cole could still end up being nearly as good as Gio, and was used to get John Jaso. They ended up with 3 solid controllable players instead of an ace they wouldn’t be able to afford later on.

          • Rebuilding

            Milone is useful as a 4/5. The Lowrie deal didn’t center around Brad Peacock. AJ Cole has a long way to go. And Jaso/Norris haven’t been very good this year. If you look at that A’s team – Gio Gonzalez is what they need going into the playoffs. That’s why we talk about them being suitors for Garza

          • Rebuilding

            I guarantee you he would take that trade back in a heartbeat and use one of their other 5 guys equivalent to Peacock to get Lowrie (which was a great trade). I understand why he did it, but they need people who can step up and win a playoff game

  • Stevie B

    Are you guys high? Colon went from pretty much being out of baseball back to throwing 94-95.

    It’s not magic, people.

    • Edwin

      Colon has been throwing between 90-92 since 2006. His average fastball velocity this year is 90.3. His sucess isn’t from being able to throw hard as much as it’s from pinpoint control and a nice 2-seamer.

    • Cubbie Blues
      • Mick

        He never said average velocity and Colon’s been gunned at 96 this season.

        • Mick
        • Cubbie Blues

          Now that is just picking nits.

          [img]http://theliceclinic.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/photo-of-nits-in-hair2.jpg[/img]

          Of course he meant average and if you are averaging 91.4 of course you are going to hit 94-96 every once in a while.

          • Mick

            Huh, looked to me he was describing a top range of Colon’s fastball. I guess only Stevie B can settle this debate.

            P.S. What’s up with the head lice pic? Couldn’t you find a pic of a decomposing body or genital warts to really drive home the point? Freaking gross dude.

            • Cubbie Blues

              Dead bodies and genital warts didn’t really fit. Showing a picture of nits fit in quite well though.

              • Mick

                I can’t help but nit pick your visual aid of picking nits.

                • Cubbie Blues

                  Consider my pick nitted.

                  • Josh Kirby

                    I believe it would be “consider my nits picked”. The irony here is reaching new levels.

  • pfk

    It could be a 3-way trade involving the Rangers getting Garza,

  • Njriv

    I know the Cubs are going for pitching when they trade Garza, but if he goes to the Cards, Wong is very tempting. Maybe throw in another piece and get Wacha in return?

  • HackAttack

    With so many teams saying they’re adverse to giving up top prospects for rental players, I’m wondering if Villanueva gets moved before Garza.

    • On The Farm

      But Villanueva offers an extra year of control. If he pitches like he did at the start of the season I would still seem he would fetch a pretty good prospect (Maybe not a top three system guy)

  • YourResidentJag

    And where are the Phillies? Still think we should be hearing more about them, given they don’t want to trade their starting 2b.

  • josh

    So Wacha, Gast, Piscotty? Done. Thats their 4th, 7th, 14th prospects according to MLB.com.

    • chirogerg

      I’m thinking Wacha Gast Blazek, but Piscotty’s aight

  • chirogerg

    Since when was the Ubaldo deal a fail? They got a very solid ML pitcher and gave up no impact talent (although Pomeranz still could figure it out). The Indians should want Garza and should have something the Cubs want (Bauer/Salazar!)

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