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matt garza cubsIf we aren’t in the home stretch of Garza rumors, it’s going to be a long couple weeks …

  • Dave Kaplan has turned his full attentions to the Matt Garza trade story, which means we’re getting a fair bit of new info. The latest from Kaplan has the Rangers, Cardinals, Pirates, Indians, Blue Jays, and Dodgers as the “strongest pursuers,” but other teams still interested. From the sound of things, a personnel executive with whom Kaplan spoke believes the Rangers, Blue Jays, and Cardinals may have the most incentive to go after Garza.
  • The Red Sox don’t appear on Kaplan’s list, and that is consistent with a new report out of Boston. A source tells Sean McAdam that the Red Sox do not “figure to be big players” in the fight for Garza. The Cubs have apparently been asking for two prospects from the following group of pitchers: Allen Webster, Rubby de la Rosa, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman, Henry Owens, and Anthony Ranaudo. (Damn, the Red Sox have a really nice group of pitching prospects.) A source tells McAdam that the Red Sox weren’t even willing to part with one from that group in a deal over the offseason (for anyone, or for Garza? The report is unclear), and they aren’t about to send any of them away now for a rental. It would be a bummer if the Red Sox are out of it, given the obvious depth of their system (we haven’t even talked about their upper level infield surplus) and the Cubs’ front office’s familiarity with that system. One from that group of pitchers and, say, Garin Cecchini? Yes, please.
  • The Red Sox are in, according to Jim Bowden. He adds the Rangers, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and maybe Indians. Not a lot of overlap with Kaplan’s list, which is probably good news. I’ve got to believe, though, that at this stage in the process, only a small handful of teams believe they have a legit shot at acquiring Garza. Maybe the rest of the teams have simply said, “Hey, Cubs, before you deal him, give us a chance to make one last offer,” even if they aren’t actively involved in negotiations. Can’t hurt, though.
  • Between Kaplan and Bowden, there are as many as 10 involved teams: Rangers, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Pirates, Indians, Dodgers, Red Sox, Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Rockies.
  • Dallas-based T.R. Sullivan, who reports for MLB.com, says that Rangers top pitching prospect Martin Perez, who has been pitching well in the bigs for the last few weeks, will not be traded in a Garza deal. “That’s not going to happen.” The names Sullivan says could be included are pitchers Neil Ramirez or Carlos Pimentel, and/or infielders Leury Garcia or Luis Sardinas. That’s not a specific package, mind you, those are just the names he says could be included. While all are legit prospects, they are lower-tier-stock-down types. Even if the Cubs got all four for Garza, I’m not sure you’d be happy with that package.
  • I offer this NBC Dallas piece not for the truth of the matter asserted (sorry for the legalism, sometimes it slips out), but instead for the color it provides. When a Cubs player is frequently connected to a particular team, I like to see how their local media is discussing the situation to get a sense of how they view the involved Cubs player. It helps me stay grounded, and also sometimes provides a little insight. In that article, which generically asserts that the Rangers are considered the frontrunner for Garza (probably true, but there’s no support offered), the author describes Garza not as an ace or a panacea for the Rangers, but says he would slot into the rotation just behind ace Yu Darvish. Martin Perez is described optimistically as a part of the rotation over the rest of the season (meaning, to locals, he’s not even plausibly considered as part of a trade for Garza, consistent with Sullivan’s report). Mike Olt is described as what would “almost certainly” be the “start” of a package for Garza – not because his star has fallen, but because he’s blocked at third base by Adrian Beltre.
  • Speaking of Olt, it has become generally accepted that, if the Cubs do deal with the Rangers, he’s going to be in the deal (though Sullivan didn’t mention him). The hope, given his .211/.312/.399 line at AAA, his impending 25th birthday, and his reported vision problems, is that Olt would not be the centerpiece of a Garza deal, but merely one of about three quality prospects coming the Cubs’ way. If the vision issue is correctable, then Olt is still something close to the guy who broke out last year and found his way into most top 30 prospect lists (that’d be top 30 in all of baseball). He’s got a good bat and a great glove at third, and would be dirt cheap through his prime years. That’s a fine piece in a Garza deal, and represents a “buy low” opportunity. Worry not about what adding Olt would mean for Bryant/Villanueva/Baez/whoever. You add talent when you can add talent, and you deal with the positional glutting issues later. The real issue here is whether Olt is the main piece or just one of several quality pieces. (Despite his fall, it’s worth noting that he’s still a top 50 prospect (No. 44) to Baseball America).
  • A source tells Jim Bowden that there’s an 80 percent chance Garza is dealt before his next start. That’s the same percentage Bowden’s colleague Buster Olney put on a Garza deal this week the other day, which means either they’ve got the same source, their sources have the same originating source, Bowden’s source is a Buster Olney fan, or Bowden’s source is Buster Olney.
  • More Garza stuff from Joel Sherman. A panel of anonymous execs feel like Garza is the best player who will be traded this month, and the most likely destination is, you guessed it, the Rangers. Let’s just hope Sullivan is wrong about the players that could/would be involved in such a deal.
  • Guy

    work out an extension with Garza. He is a proven commodity. I was at the Cardinal game on Sunday night. Upperdeck had a lot of empty seats, many other empty seats throughout the lower grandstand, and the bleachers (where I was sitting) were very comfortable with plenty of space. My point is this, if they don’t put a winning team on the field soon, no amount of advertising is going to make up the lose from concessions and tickets. Cubs fans are a resolute group, but we are becoming impatient and want results.
    Extend and sign Garza. Forget this “prospect” stuff and get a winner on the field soon. By the way Sunday night Feldman won his 8th game and a pitcher the Cubs sent to Tampa for Garza threw a complete game.

    • Britt

      What if he wants 5 / $75 million? Or 5 / $80 million? The issue of an extension is a total red herring here; the parties have discussed it, multiple times, and ostensibly are worlds apart on the parameters of any such deal.

    • cubmig

      ‘By the way Sunday night Feldman won his 8th game and a pitcher the Cubs sent to Tampa for Garza threw a complete game.”

      Nothing new in that…….just remember Nolasco. It’s the “Cubs Way”. [snark]

    • Cubbie Blues

      Yes, Chris Archer. He threw a 4 hitter.

    • Kenster

      Yes Feldman got the win, yet his ERA in the AL thru 3 starts is still in the high-5’s

  • BluBlud

    I wonder why people are so high on Perez, and why the Rangers don’t want to deal Perez. He is not even their top pitching prospect, he just so happens to be the one that is MLB Ready. They are loaded with pitching prospects, and it appears to me, that the Rangers are just bluffing with him so that they can reduce the additional cost. If the Cubs get Perez, they are buying high, and a lot of people are going to be upset with the final product. 4th or 5th starter at best.

    Perez, IMO, is not a career 3.00 ERA type of players that his current numbers suggest he is. He has great stuff, but doesn’t command it like he should, and he doesn’t strike out a lot of guys. His minor league numbers are far from impressive, and his career ERA is borderline bad. If we get him as a 2nd piece, fine, but I’m definitely not salivating.

    • gocatsgo2003

      Because being nearly MLB-ready is a pretty attractive commodity? Getting a left-hander who might be able to hold down the back of your rotation for 10+ years (as he’s only 22) is a pretty decent opportunity.

      • BluBlud

        GoCats, If I’m trading the top pitching prospect available, I not looking for a guy who projects to be a back of the rotation starter as the centerpiece. I’m not buying into the hype. His numbers are no better then Chris Rusin or Brooks Raley. Would you want one of those guys as the centerpiece for Matt Garza?

        • gocatsgo2003

          All of which is legitimate and dovetails nicely with the comment (from what is supposedly the legitimate Assman22) that Texas is offering more quantity while Cleveland is offering more quality. There may not be a single guy in a trade with Texas where you say “AHA! That’s the centerpiece!,” but there may be two or three guys who are close enough.

  • Chris

    Can we get Mel Ott instead of Mike Olt?

    • DarthHater

      Pretty sure he’s a free agent.

      • Chris

        He’d prob still hit better than most of these current guys we got too…60 years postmortem.

        • DarthHater

          Which reminds me of my all-time favorite Ty Cobb quote:

          Louis Prima: With all the great players playing ball right now, how well do you think you would do against today’s pitchers?

          Ty Cobb: Well, I figure against today’s pitchers I’d only probably hit about .290

          Louis Prima: .290? Well that’s amazing, because you batted over .400 a… a whole bunch of times. Now tell us all, we’d all like to know, why do you think you’d only hit .290?

          Ty Cobb: Well, I’m 72 fucking years old you ignorant son of a bitch.

          • Chris

            lol yeah that was a good one.

          • Spriggs

            Brickhouse used to say that Hornsby said that to him when he coached for the Cubs in the late 1950s – without the F bombs of course.

          • Drew7

            Just like *my* favorite quote about Red Grange:

            Chris Berman (ugh): “How many yards do you think The Galloping Ghost would gain if he played today?”

            George Halas: “750-800 yards, I’d say.”

            Berman: “Well, 800 yards is just ok.”

            Halas: “Son, you must remember one thing: Red Grange is 75 years old.”

    • Stevie B

      That’s a quality post, Chris.

  • TulaneCubs

    *pokes head in*

    Can stupid people from other boards post here too?
    :)

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      Only stupid people.

  • Mike S.

    Not sure if this has been mentioned. Garza gets traded by Saturday BECAUSE jake peavy returns from the DL Saturday and when he does Garza will no longer be the best pitcher available, thus lowering the return.

    • mjhurdle

      yep, you nailed it.
      no way any of these teams will want Garza when there is a pitcher with a 4+ ERA coming off the DL that is owed another 15 million next year and has pitched more than 110 innings exactly once since 2008.
      That is probably why there hasn’t been a Garza deal yet, everyone is holding out for Peavy.

    • Billy

      How exactly does Peavy jump ahead of Garza as best pitcher available?

      • gocatsgo2003

        What, you don’t want a 32-year old with current injury issues who’s under contract for $14.5MM in 2014 and has a vesting player $15MM option in 2015? Based on the contract structure, the White Sox were even cognizant of his injury issues.

  • North Side Irish

    Robert Murray ‏@RobertMurrayMLB 5s
    The #Cubs are interested in INF/OF Leury Garcia in a potential Matt Garza deal with the #Rangers, according to @wtwills09.

    • BluBlud

      Yawn……Not to impressed, unless he is a last piece throw in.

      Also, why would they trade away Torreyes, just to acquire his twin. ;)

      • gocatsgo2003

        JINX!

    • gocatsgo2003

      Really? Didn’t we just get rid of our own midget middle infield prospect for IFA money? That one seems a bit odd.

      • Stevie B

        At 5’7″ I’m a midget.

        We like to be called little people btw.

  • amskustoms

    Dont the Cubs already have Olt he is just named Vitters?

    • Myles

      Burn.

    • Spriggs

      Nope.

      • Cub Style

        This is correct. Vitters can see.

        • Spriggs

          but only balls pitched to him. Not hit to him.

          • Cubbie Blues

            He just can’t hit what he sees.

  • Cory

    Heard Levine on Busters podcast this mourning mention Leyonis Martin as a possibility in a Garza deal. I found that very interesting adding a player like Martin could possibly free up Almora for an off season pitching deal. Just speculating but I am personally a fan.

    • TulaneCubs

      Martin makes no sense to deal from the Rangers’ standpoint. He’s their starting center fielder right now and provides insurance in case Cruz gets suspended (which I think is unlikely).

      • BluBlud

        That’s why you add Schierholtz or Dejesus to the deal.

        • MichiganGoat

          If you were the Rangers would either of those really get you excited? DeJesus is a risk since nobody knows what he’ll be like when he gets back and Schierholtz is a platoon player. I don’t think either of those will really sway the Rangers

          • BluBlud

            Right, MG, but if you can upfgrade your rotation, without giving up Perez, get a player in Dejesus who is at least equal in value this season to Martin, and the main piece you are giving up is Martin, isn’t that better then giving up Perez in a deal? IMO, it would be a no brainer.

            • BluBlud

              MG, his numbers also suggest that he should probably be a platoon player.

          • BluBlud

            Soriano might also make sense in this situation.

            • Patrick G

              I have a hard Time believing Texas will be interested in Soriano with Manny Ramirez just signed and been very good in triple- A

          • TulaneCubs

            That and Schierholtz doesn’t really replace Martin. He could replace Murphy if they want to give up on him in LF. The Rangers do have Craig Gentry coming back soon that could play CF, but that’s not a guy I want playing CF everyday for me.

            I just can’t see them downgrading a position on their big league club in order to trade for Garza and I think if they included Martin they’d almost certainly be downgrading CF.

            • BluBlud

              You might wanna look at Martin numbers this year, then look at schierholtz, Dejesus and Soriano. All of their numbers would be an upgrade over Martin this season.

              • TulaneCubs

                Actually, they’d all be a downgrade. You’re completely disregarding defense.

                War By Player
                Leonys Martin 2.5
                David DeJesus 1.6
                Nate Schierholtz 1.5
                Alfonso Soriano .9

                • Cory

                  Martin could be replaced by Profar while still adding a piece like Dejesus for if/when Cruz gets suspended. In case no one has noticed in the last month martin has stole bases at will and he could definitely lead off for this cubs team while giving you tremendous D in CF

    • BluBlud

      Leonys Martin is the guy I want. If we could pull that off, I would cut cartwheels. I think he has a lot of upside. Any deal with Texas should start with this guy. However, we can’t just trade Garza for him, because he is currently slotted in their outfield, so Schierholtz or Dejesus would certaintly have to be included.

  • MrCub73

    I have read a lot of comments about Olt and his AAA numbers, but I would not compare him to Jackson or assume he cannot hit. Olt had an eye issue that has seen a workable solution arise. Olt’s eyes were not properly producing tears, Olt has since started using an eye drop and this has solve the vision issue. Review the recent trends as the month to month splits show solid improvement. This could all be an irrelevant topic as Garza may not be dealt to the Rangers.

    • BluBlud

      I would still take Olt, as I to, feel his problem has been corrected, and he is trending in the right direction since the problem was annouce and repaired. I not screaming for him, but i would not be upset either.

      • jpeck

        The only other guy so tough that he can’t cry is Chuck Norris!!!

        • Cubbie Blues

          Ummm, have you heard of Dick Tidrow?

          • jpeck

            Heard of him??? My house is covered with Dick Tidrow fatheads…

            • MichiganGoat

              No Fat Head Can Contain This
              [img]http://i1271.photobucket.com/albums/jj631/acecubbie/Coke1981Tidrown_zpse2cca457.jpg[/img]

              • jpeck

                That my friend is Awesome. I remember that card too.

              • Die hard

                Next GM

            • hansman1982

              My house is covered with diehard fatheads…

              • jpeck

                Do you have Diehard Tops card? I would love to see that.

                • hansman1982

                  Rookie Card even, valued at -$1,453:

                  [img]http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e329/crossfire1/misc/Blimpsbaseballcard.jpg[/img]

                  • Rebuilding

                    So nice. Really wish I hadn’t sold that set in college for beer money

                  • jpeck

                    Now I know how Die Hard gets all the Ladies!!!

  • Die hard

    Garza is not a Nolan Ryan type of guy… He would rather play in Oakland also

    • Cubbie Blues

      Thanks, chief, you always have great insight, but do you have anything to substantiate this?

    • Rebuilding

      What is a Nolan Ryan kind of guy? Btw…the Rangers stripped Ryan of any talent input and he is basically a figurehead now. That’s what the stir was at the start of the season

      • Die hard

        But he’s not a bobble head — still has influence over decisions

  • JulioZuleta

    From the ongoing Bruce Levine Chat:

    “Starlin Castro will start the 2015 season on the…?
    Bruce Levine
    (1:19 PM)
    … on the Phillies. Rollins will be pretty much done in the next two years and they will be looking for an offensive SS.”

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

      That sounds like Levine is predicting a Castro trade?

      That’d be… unexpected.

      • JulioZuleta

        I read it as more of an offseason thing, but who knows. Didn’t add any other context. You’d think if he heard Castro-rumors he would have reported them, or at least mentioned them in passing.

        • JulioZuleta

          Ah, also, I didn’t notice until looking back now that it says 2015. I read it as next season for some reason. I could see a trade within two years. Especially if the Cubs face the unlikely-but-possible scenario of Bryant, Alcantara, and Baez all sticking in the infield at the MLB level.

          • Jono

            It’s okay, many of us Cubs fans are preemptively erasing it from our collective prememories

      • Cheryl

        I’ not so sure its unexpected. Some have said no cub is untouchable. Haven’t they placed themselves in the right position to trade Castro? He’s got a contract that gives another team control of him for several years. Baez could play second and maybe Alcantara (sp?) short. Rizzo was also locked up by an extension. He hasn’t had the best year but is probably safe for now. But if the right deal came along for him I wouldn’t be surprised. It looks like the FO is thinking 2015 or 2016.

        • bbmoney

          when Castro will be 25 & 26. I would be shocked.

          • On The Farm

            One year before peak season so to speak. I too am skeptical of any moves involving Castro, Baez is still an unknown at this point. Forecasting trades in 2015 seems as easy as prediciting the weather in 2015.

        • CubsFaninMS

          Actually, Alcantra made a comment recently stating that he prefers shortstop but will play anywhere they put him. I think SS is a real possibility for him if he makes it to the show.

          • Jp3

            I think he should get a shot, I like Castro but it seems like the general attitude is that the only certainties in life are death, taxes, and now apparently that Castro is playing SS for the Cubs no matter what. I think he’d be fine at 2nd and if his offense plays well at short and Barney can play everyday at 2nd with no bat that Castro would fair just fine there.

        • CubsFaninMS

          I think Castro is the same type of asset all of the Cubs players are: They’re willing to listen to any offer. If they’re blown away with the return then they’ll probably act on it. Castro is a “buy low” candidate right now so I certainly wouldn’t expect it. IMO we are seeing Castro’s floor right now. Hitting as well as he did as young as he was in the MLB was not a fluke. They have plenty of time to watch him mature as a Major Leaguer and turn into either a better team asset or tradable asset for potentially better pieces. If I were the front office, I would wait until next year when you have the Baez’s and Alcantara’s (<—- notice I use Sveum-language here lol) knocking on the door.

          • Jono

            That’s the best argument for Castro not being traded any time soon. Hoyer won’t sell low. There’s time to wait for Baez and also so much time on his contract. I’ve been on the trade-castro-camp recently, but this argument definitely changed my mind

            • Jono

              the baez point is assuming Bryant stays at third, which isn’t guaranteed. So there’s also the argument that either Baez or Castro can move to third

            • CubsFaninMS

              Thanks! I’m not a huge Castro fan, but he’s certainly an above average SS so far in his career. It does us no good to trade him right now.

              • jpeck

                “If ” you trade a guy like Castro in the off season, It wouldnt be a buy low type of deal. You normally get a better deal ( without the emotional rollercoaster of a season slump) during the winter meetings.

      • Rebuilding

        If they started with Biddle and Maikel Franco then you could have a conversation

        • Tobias

          Rocky Biddle? Nah, man I was kidding.

    • Mr. B. Patient

      Later in the chat, Bruce was asked again about trading Castro to the Phillies. His response:

      “Someone just asked me to pose a wild guess. That’s all it was. I’m just staying another big market will probably make a play if the Cubs decided to trade. Philly will be losing their SS more than likely by that time.”

      Sounds like Bruce just being…well…Bruce.

    • JB88

      When is the last time that Levine really nailed one of his prognostications, though? I’m not suggesting that he is irrelevant, but I think it is pretty clear at this point that there are two or three media guys in Chicago who get information from the Cubs and Levine isn’t one of them.

      • On The Farm

        “Marmol will be traded before the season”

      • Rebuilding

        I always assume that if Levine “breaks” something it is because the Cubs FO wants it out there. Not sure Bruce has any sources outside of Chicago.

  • http://Bleachernation Lou Brock

    Keep your eyes on the D-Backs and the Pirates for a deal with Cubs but not on Garza. Pirates like Navarro and Schierholtz, D-Backs like Villanueva and Russell.

    • ssckelley

      It would not surprise me, the Pirates like cheap and player control. Schierholtz would fill a huge hole for them and Navarro would make a nice backup to Martin.

    • CubsFaninMS

      I think the Pirates are a better fit for a trade than the Cardinals. The Cardinals are notoriously stingy with their prospects. The Pirates are perennial losers having a great year.. they absolutely don’t want to see a collapse. With a rich farm system, they would most likely be willing to dish out a couple of stud prospects and one or two high floor/high ceiling guys for Garza and Scheirholtz. Jameson Taillon anyone? Gregory Polanco? That would be quite a haul. Either way, the Pirates can offload two stud prospects and still have a deep farm system.

  • On The Farm

    Cubs are looking to get a top 50 prospect for Garza, here is a Fangraphs Top 50 list

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2013-mid-season-top-50-prospects/

    • On The Farm

      Also Baez #13, Almora #16, Soler #25

    • On The Farm

      Also notable for this list: Olt is not listed, BoSox have 4 guys: #2 Bogarets (sure wish his brother would have turned out..), #45 Cecchini (as Jason Parks would say WANT), #49 Ranaudo, and #50 Ownes (also WANT). I jumped on the BoSox bandwagon back in ’04 (I really loved it when they swept the Cards) and even though my man crush Theo is on my team I still can’t help but drool over the Boston farm system.

      • Cubbie Blues

        Olt was a notable mention in the right-up on #50.

        • gocatsgo2003

          JINX AGAIN!

      • gocatsgo2003

        Olt isn’t listed, but the comments under Owens seem to indicate he would be no worse than #53.

        • On The Farm

          I understand, but he was previously #47 (preseason top 100). The point I was making is that Olt is not a top 50 prospect if he is not ranked 50 or better, #53 and the trend is falling.

          • gocatsgo2003

            Yeah… the difference between #47 and #53 is minimal.

            • On The Farm

              The point is that they there are about 6-9 guys in the 47-53 that are in the same area, but they don’t like Olt as much anymore obviously because if he did he would have beat out the others. I am just pointing out that his stock is going down not up.

              • falselife

                His stock dropping is evident in every related post on this board. Last year we were almost all clamoring, hoping we could somehow wrench Olt from their grasp. Now it’s fallen to where we would take Olt, but significant talent must come with him. That alone speaks volumes on his stock.

                • gocatsgo2003

                  Olt’s overall line is pretty weak, but on the upswing — .256/.363/.442 over the past month or so. Whether his early struggles were attributable to an eye/contact issue or whatever, it’s still pretty clear that he’s not a throwaway prospect (in the 50-60 range on most lists).

                  • Joey Jo Jo Junior

                    That line doesn’t impress me too much for an (almost) 25 yr. old in AAA. What was Vitter’s line last year? He cannot be the centerpiece of a Garza deal…

                    • gocatsgo2003

                      Vitters was .304/.356/.513 at AAA last year. However, a key difference is that Olt is seen as at least an above-average 3B long-term while Vitters’ glove gives many concern about his ability to stay at the position long-term.

      • Qder

        Since manny has joined the Texas AAA team he saw flaws with Olt swing and is working with him, think he was 1-22 before Manny talked to him then went like 9-22 or something forgot where I heard this.

      • Nathan

        Actually, Jason Parks is not a big fan of Owens. He sees him as no more than a #4 starter

    • BluBlud

      Sano all the way down at 10. I thought he was known as a top 5 by everyone in baseball. I think he is slightly over hyped myself. Crazy power, but he makes Baez’s SO rate look pretty damn solid(which is saying a lot), and their numbers, with the exeption of walks, therefor, OBP, are all that dissimilar.

      • hansman1982

        He also makes Baez’s walk rate look as weak as Tony Campana.

        • BluBlud

          Hansman, I noted that above.

        • YourResidentJag

          Hence the reason Buxton has leapfrogged over Sano.

      • On The Farm

        I thought he was low at #10 as well, but I suppose in the top 10 that is about right, I think he is in that 5-7 range, but obviously fan graphs values the pitchers ahead of him a little more than I do.

    • Little Lord Fontenot

      Why is Lindor consistently ranked ahead of Baez despite outproducing him big time?

      • bbmoney

        Just from what I’ve read. Defense, Approach at the plate, Age.

        Baez has the higher (offensive ceiling) Lindor probably has a much higher likelihood of reaching something close to his ceiling.

        • JulioZuleta

          Lindor is going to stick at SS and be a very good one. Also, as bb said, much more likely to reach his ceiling (although it’s quite lower). If Baez has to move off short, which is pretty likely, his value takes a considerable hit.

          • BluBlud

            Baez will only move from SS if there is already someone manning the position. If Castro happens to get traded(I’m not suggesting he will, just a if) then Baez will slot right in at SS. Rodriguez, yes even the pre steroid version, is considerably bigger and he stuck there for a long time, and was only pushed out to play with Jeter, who also happens to be much bigger then Baez. Baez is the typical size for most SS, and has as much, if not more range then most. Why are people constantly trying to size him out of the position?

            Baez only hit in Value is his walks. If he had a 10% walk rate, he would be a clear top 6 or 7 and no one would even care about the SO’s with all the homers he hits(see Sano). The fact that one might not stick at SS, and the other will defiitely stick has nothing to with it, IMO.

            • bbmoney

              I think positional value has a lot to do with it. And the plate approach thing is also rather large when considering bust possibilities of the two.

              • Blublud

                Yeah, but I have not heard one scout suggest he won’t stick. Just Cubs fans who are trying to fit him and Castro in the same lineup. If Baez is traded, which these rankings are only really good for trade value, he’ll be traded with SS value.

                • JulioZuleta

                  Then you have never heard a scout talk about him. I would say 80% of scouts/experts predict him to move. Way more than half project him to move.

                  • Blublud

                    Give me a source. Only time they mention it is when Castro’s name comes up. Tell me one scout who says he can’t play the position.

                    • Cubbie Blues

                      “Fielding: Hard to find a scout that believes in ability to stick at SS. Solid athlete. Lacks range at the position. Hands are solid, but unspectacular. Fringy instincts and not the quickest mover. Overall a well below-average defender at SS now and doesn’t project better than average. Could profile at third base with plus arm and decent reactions. Likely move is to 3B, where he could be average. Grade – 30/50 (third base)”
                      http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/07/16/scouting-report-javier-baez-ss/

                    • JulioZuleta

                      Keith Law- Many predict a move to third base in his future, but there’s a non-zero chance of his staying at shortstop, with Keith Law even saying that he has a 30% chance to remain at the position, on twitter recently.

                      Kevin Goldstein–Goldstein said that Baez’s chance of sticking at shortstop long-term is about 10%, calling him a third baseman or second baseman in the future.

                      Jim Callis:Jim Callis: Huge ceiling. He has a big-time bat and has played a better shortstop than expected, to the point where he might be able to stay there. (Indicating that there was almost no chance, now there is a slight chance.)

                      There, I googled the 3 main guys and found that in about 2 minutes. Other professional scouts don’t tend to write internet articles. Now find me one that says he likely will stick at SS…

                    • JulioZuleta

                      Haha I love the other comments I saw after I posted. Is that enough BluBud?

                    • DarthHater

                      “Is that enough BluBud?”

                      You do know Blublud, right? Guarantee you it won’t be enough. ;-)

                    • hansman1982

                      Hear that sound? That’s BluBlud starting the tractor to move the goalposts.

                    • BluBlud

                      I conceded. I have my opinions, but I have never been one to admit I was wrong.

                    • BluBlud

                      I meant I have never been one who is scared to admit i was wrong.

                    • Cubbie Blues

                      “I have my opinions, but I have never been one to admit I was wrong.”

                      At least we can agree on something.

                    • BluBlud

                      Cubbie Blues, you are wrong. If I’m proven wrong on something factual, i’ll admit it. My opinions, however, can only be change by results, not by someone suggesting his opinions are better.

                • DarthHater

                  “Fielding: Hard to find a scout that believes in ability to stick at SS.”

                  There, that took all of ten seconds.

                  • DarthHater

                    just google “javier baez scouting report” and start reading. First result says maybe he sticks at short. The second gives the quote above. I stopped at that point, since my only goal was to demonstrate your penchant for overstatement. :-P

                    • MichiganGoat

                      It’s amazing what a simple search can teach you… And sooooo easy. But that never gets in the way of fandom.

                    • DarthHater

                      [img]http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8551/8705395082_71435b7e84_o.jpg[/img]

                      I know I post that picture a lot, but it just never seems to lose its applicability around here.

                  • BluBlud

                    A solid all-around athlete, there’s no reason to yet believe he won’t stick at shortstop, thanks to a strong arm, soft hands and good feet. He hasn’t yet shown the power for a corner, though, so his best route to the majors is definitely the middle of the diamond.

                    • DarthHater

                      If you had said that there are some scouts who think he can stick at SS, that passage might prove something. But you said there are NO scouts who say he won’t stick at SS. Finding one who thinks he will is irrelevant to that statement.

                      You’ll do better if you just try to avoid using words like “never,” “always,” “every,” “absolutely,” “everyone,” “nobody,” etc.

                    • JulioZuleta

                      Where is that from? And any moron “scout” that said he hasn’t shown the power for a corner position is absolutely clueless. He has plus power at any position on the field.

                    • BluBlud

                      OK, so I’ll concede that there are scouts who say it, but I still believe it’s only because the Cubs have Castro. If the Cubs didn’t already have a “SS of the future”, i don’t think any one would even suggest it.

                    • Cubbie Blues

                      Scouts usually don’t pay attention to what is in front of them in the majors. They base the projections off of the prospect and only the prospect.

                    • On The Farm

                      “Scouts usually don’t pay attention to what is in front of them in the majors”

                      Correct, I don’t think any scout EVER said anything about Profar having to move off SS unless it was related to Andrus.

                    • BluBlud

                      That is wrong. i have read reports on Profar suggesting other positions because the Rangers have Andrus, including OF and 3B, though that wasn’t an option because of Beltre.

                  • On The Farm

                    BluBlud “i have read reports on Profar suggesting other positions because the Rangers have Andrus.”

                    Me “I don’t think any scout EVER said anything about Profar having to move off SS UNLESS it was related to Andrus.”

                    So you just contridicted yourself, you said that you saw reports that Profar may have to switch positions because the Rangers have Andrus. I said no scout said that Profar would have to move off SS unless it was Andrus related..

                    But the bigger issue here is that they never valued him at any other position until he was MLB ready because there was no room. Baez is getting comments about having to move off SS in A ball. Do you realize how far that is from the majors? If they thought he could stick at short, Scouts would say it. If both guys can play SS why wouldnt you want the one who can hit for more power playing, and move the other off SS. That is not the case, as it stands, Baez has the power, but scouts have doubts about his glove and he just made it to AA this month.

            • JulioZuleta

              Also, we’re back to the “this guy is smaller than that guy so he can do things better than that guy” argument? Baez is a muscular dude that still has room to grow. I’m not saying he will definitely moved, but he probably will be. This is the same kind of argument you made when you said LeBron could be an NFL tight end pretty much because he’s bigger than the other guys.

              I’m probably ideal shortstop size. I can’t play a good professional SS. Also, he does not have great range; he has OK range. Also, “The fact that one might not stick at SS, and the other will defiitely stick has nothing to with it, IMO.” is insane. Of course it matters, A LOT.

              • Cubbie Blues

                I make a pretty good David Wells impersonator. Only 7 positions left to fill.

                • hansman1982

                  TWC would make a good Geo Soto, Brett can be Jose Altuve…we only need 5 more!

                  • DarthHater

                    I do a mean impersonation of Sammy Sosa’s boombox:

                    [img]http://viaddressreviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/darth-vader-cd-player-lg.jpg[/img]

                  • TWC

                    I’m beginning to think that I’ve got a bit of a reputation here.

              • BluBlud

                The other might not was not suggesting that the fact doesn’t matter, just that Baez is a SS, and is going to be judged as a SS until he is not a SS. I’m not suggesting he will be a better defensive SS the Lindor, just that these current ranking are not because he might not stick. Now the fact that Lindor will probably be a better SS might effect the rankings, but not the Suggestion that Baez is not a SS.

                • On The Farm

                  Well isnt the whole point that Baez might have to move off short stop because he is not good enough to play the position? I feel like you are saying the same thing when you say he is not judged because he might move off short stop, but because he doesnt play the position well (which is why some scouts dont think he will stick).

                  • BluBlud

                    Not good enough to play the position and not the best SS are 2 totally different things. Baez is clearly good enough to play the position, though I doubt he could win a gold glove. But then again, if Jeter can win a gold glove as SS, then I could any of us could win one too.

                    • TWC

                      “No no no no no. I want the goalposts over … THERE!”

                    • bbmoney

                      Many scouts would disagree with this statement, “Baez is clearly good enough to play the position” at least when referring to SS. See above google search reports.

                      Most would probably say there is a chance Baez is good enough to play the position. But they’d also say Lindor is a lock. There’s value in that.

      • Little Lord Fontenot

        Baez is outproducing Lindor (is what I meant)

      • bleeds cubbie blue

        Baez isn’t outproducing Lindor “big time” to begin with, also Lindor being 11months younger and having no doubt about him sticking at short helps when it comes rankings

  • todd mccombs

    The problem with speculating about the cubs are –

    They don’t leak information they don’t want leaked. I guess only 2 or 3 people actually know what’s going on with Garza and they are not speaking about it. In the Hendry days they floated the rumor, found out what the fans thought, then made the move or not off of fan reaction.

    Kinda had a good idea what was on the table weeks before the trade or free agent signing happened. Now no one has a clue till it actually happens.

    • On The Farm

      “They don’t leak information they don’t want leaked”

      Yes, kinda like Samardzjia isn’t available, but Arizona just called and we said Skaggs and Bradley.

    • gocatsgo2003

      Really? You think fan reaction actually swayed baseball moves? Methinks you overestimate the importance of fan opinion, especially since it’s almost impossible to measure with any kind of accuracy.

      • Mr. B. Patient

        Should they, and do they, are two different questions. Unfortunately I can see the old Tribune ownership caring about fan reaction. Should they? Of course not.

  • chirogerg

    If we happen to get Raunado, then he’ll never have to face Alcantara in a real game again. I think he’s hoping for this, so he doesn’t get embarrassed by another massive ya ball

  • On The Farm

    Also from Fan Graphs Anthony Rizzo comes in at #37 on their players with the top trade value. Nice little bit on him in the article.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-trade-value-40-36/

  • http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

    As much as we know Texas has assets we adore, are they absolutely going to part with them? They very well make the playoffs without any further trading…Yu is coming back. They have other guys on the mend. An offense that works – Biogenesis notwithstanding. They might like Alex Rios more than what we can offer…and that solves a problem for them, maybe at a lower ask, since the Sox may want salary relief more than any prospects.

    I see LA as having the addictive want to add more pieces. They’ll be better positioned to offer a deal to Garza, since they are losing Lilly to FA (he’s going to the pen likely as not this year). They still DONT have to extend Kershaw, he’s in ARB 3. They’ll cut loose Capuano. Nolasco is gone – and he’s a 5 inning/90 pitch guy right now anyways. So Garza could work for them for 5 years. LA contracts: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dDg4OTBnc3VGSk5NMXdIaThyclQ0b3c&output=html

    If we got CF/LF Joc Pederson (and a SP of potential), that would be potential mid-season 2014 callup to the bigs. He’s got 1000 ABs to date, and could be close to ready. Plus the Dodgers don’t need him. He’s a piece to be swapped for a ring run. http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p3206

    • Mr. B. Patient

      For my money, that would be a dream scenario. ills a need (ML ready OF) and is the best/safest prospect that has been mentioned.

      • http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

        Well, here’s hoping.

      • Rebuilding

        Love Joc Pederson and think it would make sense for both sides. Who knows what goes on in Coletti’s head and it seems that we really want some pitching back – Magill and Reed are both the kind of arm you describe

        • Mr. B. Patient

          GULP… this is going to be hard to say…I see the Cubs having the potential of having at least 5 arms as good or better than the names that have been mentioned (realistic names, since we aren’t getting Perez or Bradley). OF, on the other hand, is a system weakness. Yes, I know, Almora, Soler, and Bryant/Baez all have high ceilings, but Pederson is closer to major leagues and has a pretty high ceiling himself. (plus, the 2015 FA class has a bunch of interesting arm

          Or the short version: Get the best guy available. Position is secondary.

          • http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

            Pretty much agree there. You can find a suitor later, if such a dilemma blesses the Cubs.

        • http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

          I thought of those two, maybe, Ross Stripling???

          Stan Kasten probably influences that shot call.

  • North Side Irish

    TomLoxas ‏@TomLoxas 19m
    Garza could still go Tex but Cubs looking for Feliz.

    If they got Feliz and Olt, I’d be pretty happy. Feliz and Vizcaino would provide a ton of uncertainty, but they could also be a nasty combination at the end of the game or in the rotation (theoretically).

    • http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

      I mentioned Mr Neftali on MLB trade rumors and got tons of backlash from Texas fans. I guess that’s understandable. I know TJ is very successful, but this guy barely got into a starter role, and boom, he was DLed. GREAT stuff, but is he durable?
      http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=feliz-001nef

      Looking at the minors, he seems to lack stamina…never thrown a complete game there, but that’s 5 years ago. And elite pitching is on a strict pitch count.
      So he is a closer…and that’s probably it.

  • John

    I would love for the Cubs to get 2nd baseman Rougned Odor and pitcher CJ Edwards from the Rangers in a Garza Deal. Odor is hitting .295 with 25 steals, 30 doubles, 4 triples, and 4 Homers, hes been playing advanced A ball all year and hes only 19. CJ edwards has just been pitching out of this world this year 113 strike outs in only 87.2 innings pitched with a 1.95 ERA, Edwards will be 22 this september

  • bbmoney

    Taking the above Lindor v Baez discussion above down a slightly different path. In the Cubs current position who would you rather have in the organization right now: Baez or Lindor?

    I know Lindor is typically ranked higher, and is a ‘lock’ to stay at SS and projects to be a good offensive player with mostly gap power, and it might just be me, but at this point in the organization’s process I’ll take the guy with the bigger offensive upside in Baez. I just love prospects with huge power potential, even with the higher bust potential and higher potential to require a move from SS.

    • Spriggs

      Baez for me.

      • Little Lord Fontenot

        Baez easily. I’ll take a guy with 30+ HR potential at any position over a lite hitting SS

    • On The Farm

      I still like our guy in terms of power because I feel pretty confident that Baez could be a good 3B with his bat average with his glove.

      But on the flip side Lindor’s K% and BB% in A+ is 10.5/9.4 is another attractive thing to consider. If I know both guys are going to make the majors, I would rather have the power.

    • Mr. B. Patient

      Baez. Not even close.

      Baez ceiling is HUGE. No doubt. But I’m starting to think his floor is getting better. Worst case scenario, I see a Mark Trumbo type hitter (with much better defensive and a chance to stay at short) .250/.330, 35-40 HR’s and a lot of RBI (yes, depending on who’s ahead of him in the order). That kinda of guy is very valuable in the 6 or 7 spot in a line-up.

      • bbmoney

        That’s your worst case scenario? He should be the number 1 prospect right now if .250/.330 and 35-40 HRs is worst case scenario. At any position.

        • On The Farm

          Yeah if that is the worse case I have a whole new perspective on the guy.

          • Mr. B. Patient

            Can’t a guy be optimistic?

            Look at Trumbo…

            .250 hitter, doesn’t walk a lot (has increased this year because he’s lower in the batting order). ton of K’s, tons of HR’s, no real position in the field.

            I see Baez, at a minimum, being that type of guy.

            As for being rated higher:

            -top shelf pitchers are always rated higher
            -plate discipline is rated higher
            -plus defense is rated higher

            A 20 year old with 675 PA’s rated in the 10-15 range is pretty impressive to me.

            • On The Farm

              Yeah you can dream, I saw Trumbo in Cedar Rapids and the dude straight mashed it. And then he went on to A+ and AA ball and hit 32 HR that season (26 in A+). I would really love me some of that kind of production.

              • Mr. B. Patient

                That just furthers my comparison. The year you speak of, Trumbo was 22. Baez is 20. Both played A+/AA. Baez has an outside chance of 30 Hr’s. Actually, Baez will probably walk more (shocking). Baez will however, blow away Trumbo’s K number (sad).

        • bbmoney

          Sorry, not trying to be a jerk. But I’d take that and run if someone offered that to me as what Baez will become, or any prospect for that matter. It’s also a lot better than what Trumbo is, especially if you have a defensive position.

          My worst case scenario remains he never contributes at the MLB level. I’m not saying I think that’s likely, but I definitely still think it’s a possibility and not even that remote a possibility.

          • bbmoney

            Although Trumbo is walking more this year, so Trumbo could become that.

          • Mr. B. Patient

            You didn’t come across as a jerk. Your point is well taken.

            I am encouraged by the adjustments he’s been able to make, and with added baseball acumen, I see him making it. (I actually think he’ll be better than those numbers)

            I hope I’m right. If he can put up those numbers and the Cubs have the luxury to bat him 6th, we are going to have fun team to watch.

            • bbmoney

              I hope you’re right too.

    • CubsFaninMS

      With potential power bats Bryant, Soler, Vogelbach, and Shoulders, I’d prefer Lindor. From what I’ve read he has the higher floor and is a safer bet. That being said, I’m perfectly happy with Baez and his high upside. This isn’t choosing between the lemon Skittles and tropical berry Skittles… they’re both high quality prospects (who likes the lemon Skittles anyway?).

      • CubsFaninMS

        Let me add something to this…

        Heavy power hitters are at a premium right now so I would go as far as to say that, if both of them reach their projections in the MLB, Baez will be a better asset for the Cubs to either trade or control to contribute in a WS run in 2016-2018. In that context, I would say Baez. Just look at the trade frenzy that Giancarlo Stanton is creating. Baez may not have QUITE the elite power tool that Stanton has, but it’s not far off. Am I changing my mind 10 minutes later? Yes, I think so.

      • JB88

        Neither Vogelbach nor Shoulders are remotely sure-fire prospects. No way do I trade Baez for Lindor. Lindor is a great, great prospect, but Baez’s bat could play anywhere around the diamond and that flexibility (along with other SS prospects in the Cubs system) makes me appreciate a bat more than a Lindor.

  • James

    Extend Garza!! Forget all the prospect crap. He helps now and into the forseable furture. These prospects may never make it in the show. 5 80/mil lock it up! They gave NO ACTION JACKSON 4 and 50/mil and garza is lightyears better than jackson. Also they were going to give sanchez the huge contract and again garza is better!

    • sven-erik312

      I agree with you as far as keeping Garza, I wish they would. If they actually an become competetive for a wild card spot next year with the players that they have this year, you’d need a stopper like Garza. With a little more offense, both Garza and Jackson could really be effective next year. But my opinion is that perhaps you are a little too hard on Jackson. I think it’s been harder for him than he expected to pitch for the Cubs, Brett also wrote a story about that not too long ago. Yes, we all expected him to burn it up on the North Side, but he has not had the best of luck this year.

    • X the Cubs fan

      If we can get a Bauer, Sanchez, Skaggs, Ranaudo, type prospect for Garza than theirs no doubt we jump on it.

      • On The Farm

        Just like Tanto, we would “Jump on it, Jump on it, Jump on it”

  • Rebuilding

    Here are my predictions (not including organizational filler):

    1) Garza to Cleveland for Bauer, Lovegood and CC Lee
    2) Villanueva/Russell to Arizona for either Trahan/Chase Anderson or Holmberg
    3) Schierholtz/Navarro to Pittsburgh for Glasnow
    4) Barney/Gregg to Detroit for A. Garcia

    Total Wildcard:

    Lake/Hendricks to NYM for Rafael Montero

    • On The Farm

      That would pretty much set me off the walls if we can hit on two of the first three.

    • Mr. B. Patient

      First 4 sound okay. (Not so much #5, because I think Lake is going to be a blast to watch). And an added bonus to your proposals? It would guarantee getting back in the conversation of a top 3 draft choice next year.

      • On The Farm

        There is a lot of ground to make up on the Marlins and Astros, but I wouldn’t think we would be much worse than #4. Trade our best SP, then giving up our #3 SP (assuming Garza is already gone), lose our top two bullpen arms, probably our second best power hitter (Navarro), and a guy who has been our most consistent player all year (Scheirholtz). And we dont really add MLB talent back (I think Bauer would be up for September, but send him to Iowa to work out his “kinks”).

      • Rebuilding

        I said the other day that trading Lake is a gamble. I think he could be an All-Star or completely out of baseball in 3 years. The reason I think it makes sense for two rebuilding clubs is that they have a ton of young pitching/a black hole at SS/need more positional guys. We need close to MLB ready pitching. Don’t sleep on Montero – he doesn’t get the love of Wheeler and Syndergaard, but he has put up excellent numbers everywhere and will be ready by September

        • On The Farm

          Was looking up Montero until you said that, yeah I think I would be happy with all of your trades except #4, but that is only because of my lack of knowledge of Detroit and a majority of their prospects.

          • Rebuilding

            From Motor City Bengals: “1. Avisail Garcia (OF)- I like my top prospects to do more than just one or two things, and Garcia certainly has that capability. Garcia can run, can hit for average, there are some signs that the power is coming, and he can defend and throw. Garcia might not ever reach an All Star level, but he has the ability to affect the game both offensively and defensively, and it’s for that reason he gets the nod over Castellanos in my current rankings.

            • On The Farm

              Well then if he even that close with Castellanos I would have to say that would be a pretty good trade.

    • Little Lord Fontenot

      Your not getting Glasnow for Schierholtz/Navarro. He’s shot up the Pirates rankings this year.

      • Rebuilding

        Normally no and it is shooting high, but given the Pirates last 25 years and depth of pitching I don’t think it’s impossible

  • Mason Asher

    What would be really entertaining is IF we could package Garza, Gregg, Barney, Vitters, Jackson, Navarro into one package. Never gonna happen though because no team would have needs for all of them.

    • On The Farm

      Yeah if a team had that many needs and still was in contention it would be a real head scatcher.

      Couple that with the fact that if they had enough talent to obtain all of those guys, one would have to think the farm system would be very barren.

  • Mick

    Mick’s crystal ball:

    1. Garza to the Dodgers for Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling
    2. Schierhotlz to the Pirates for Nick Kingham
    3. Kevin Gregg to the Diamondbacks for Evan Marshall

  • Rebuilding

    Stolen from “davearm” at PSD: MLBPA saying any players suspended for Biogenesis wouldn’t begin serving suspensions until next year

  • Josh C.

    As I find myself trolling the internet looking for whatever I can find about what the haul for Garza may be, it kills me to think that everyone thinks that the headliners in any deal will be the major contributors in the future. I remember a deal a couple years ago that netted us 3 “decent prospects” of which none were supposed the major leauge quliaty starters. Well one of those guys just threw a 4 hit shutout the other day. My point of rambling here is, you will never know what little gem you may find in any trade. Hendry got blasted for trading Derosa for 3 bullpen arms at best is what most people called them, now Theo and Jed are gonna get blasted if we dont get Jurikson Profar in any deal for Garza. Let’s just wait it out and see. Hopefully we get a real good package for him, and then can sign him for something under Sanchez money in the off season. Here is to Happy Hunting by the FO, lets see what they can do!!!

    • http://cubsdailyrecaps.blogspot.com Jason P

      I haven’t heard one person who expects us to get Profar.

      • Josh C.

        Jason, i wasnt saying we were going to get Profar, dude, i was attempting to make a point is all!!

        • On The Farm

          “My point of rambling here is . . . now Theo and Jed are gonna get blasted if we dont get Jurikson Profar in any deal for Garza”

          But you did imply Cubs fans are being un-realistic in our expectations for a Garza return. I think for some reason Cubs players are undervalued on the market. I think I can say that without sounding like a homer because just about every MLB correspondent has said we have the best SP on the trade market, yet it seems like the other clubs don’t value Garza as highly as they should when you consider how big of an impact he can have on your club.

          • Josh C.

            That was not my intent OTF…I was just trying to state, that no matter the moves these guys seem to make it is not good enough. I am truly a HOMER by nature, and love the direction the FO is taking us, and yes I do believe that sometimes we are completly unrealistic in our expectations of what we should get in return. Now while i agree we should get a great couple of prospects for ole Matty, everyone is expecting us to get an ORGs. top 3 prospects and that simply isnt going to happen for a really really really good pitcher, that happens to be slightly injury prone, and they only get him for 2 1/2 months.

  • Patrick G

    Not sure f anyone’s asked this since this comment section is so big, but when can trades be announced? I’m going to guess anytime after the AS game since the publicity really won’t effect the ratings. Anyone?

    • Josh C.

      It is absolutley after the All Star game, but unsure if it is before play starts again, or just …it’s Wednesday, let the bell ring and go at it.

      • Rebuilding

        The funny thing is that half the pregame will be about potential trades. Hell, the ratings would probably be a lot higher if people thought a trade story might break during the game

        • On The Farm

          This is absolutlely so true, well said

        • hansman1982

          Or if a player had to switch dugouts.

          • Stinky Pete

            I recall Meinkevitch (SP? You know who the hell I’m talking about.) did that as part of the Nomar trade in 2004.

      • X the Cubs fan

        Thursday

  • http://cubsdailyrecaps.blogspot.com Jason P

    2012 Jurickson Profar AA (480 AB): .281/.368/.452/.820 14 HR 62 RBI 16 SB 127 wRC+

    2013 Arismendy Alcantara AA (what he’s on pace for after 480 AB): .280/.354/.475/.829 18 HR 64 RBI 31 SB 139 wRC+

    Same position (2B/SS); granted Profar was 2 years younger, but Alcantara’s had the better offensive season. Profar’s the better defender, and he’ll be able to play short in the bigs, but Alcantara’s a very good defender at second in his own right.

    I’m not arguing Alcantara’s the better prospect, because he’s not, but my point is, I don’t see a reason why he can’t be top-50 in the league. The upside is there, and he no longer has a glaring weakness in his game.

    • Mr. B. Patient

      Plus, Profar did his in the very hitter friendly Texas League.

      With Alcantara’s positional value and K rate holding him back, I’ll predict he lands in the 65-80 range on most off season prospect lists.

      • Drew7

        Last year’s Texas League OPS was .715.

        It may be *more* hitter-friendly than the Southern League, but it’s not like he did it in the PCL.

      • Mr. B. Patient

        As far as the 60-85 range thing, If Alcantara keeps up the power thing this year and next (and show’s it’s not a 1 year thing), he could be in the top 25 next year. High OBP and OPS guys are hard to find at 2nd base.

        I’m actually kind of excited by the guy. With all the greatness in our system, he seems to be the most exciting lead-off option we have.

        • JB88

          Maybe not top 25, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him land in the top 60. I saw that Jason Park is writing up a column on him and Peterson and was pretty enamoured with what Alcantara did this weekend.

          • Mr. B. Patient

            My top 25 prediction was for the start of the 2015 season. With proving his power is not a one-off type of thing.

        • Kyle

          I wouldn’t really call him a high-OBP guy.

          • http://Cubsdailyrecaps.blogspot.com Jason P

            League average OBP is .319 (.317 for 2B) and Alcantara’s up at .354. He might not be a huge OBP guy in the majors, but I think it should at least be well above average.

            • Drew7

              Who has that handy minors-to-majors projection calculator? I bet .354 in AA translates to an OBP in the .320-range.

    • Drew7

      I think MBP has it: AA’s K-rate (22%) is what keeps him from being top-50.

      Also, even though you addressed it in your post, Profar’s line is much more impressive to me since he had *just* turned 19 when he did it (not to mention the great bat-control he displayed).

      2.5 years may not seem like a big difference, but the the difference between 19 and 21.5 is huge when you’re talking about prospects.

      • http://Cubsdailyrecaps.blogspot.com Jason P

        The age point is legitimate, but it’s also important to remember that Alcantara isn’t old for AA by any stretch of the imagination. The average age for that league is 24 years old, and Alcantara’s 21.5.

        The K% is below average, but it’s not *that* big of a concern. It’s only a little more than 3 points higher than Buxton’s, and he’s the best prospect in baseball.

    • CubsFaninMS

      Thanks for the comparison! Very interesting.

    • Kyle

      “granted Profar was 2 years younger”

      That’s not something you can just gloss over at the age range we’re talking about.

      • cerambam

        Exactly. Age to level ratio is one of the most important, and first, thing you should look at when evaluating a player. I also love Alcantara though.

      • http://Cubsdailyrecaps.blogspot.com Jason P

        You’re right, and I wasn’t glossing over it. That’s why I’m not arguing Alcantara’s the best prospect in the league; I’m arguing he’s top 50. He may not be 19 but he’s still young for his level.

        If age wasn’t part of the equation, you could easily make the argument that they’re neck and neck in terms of prospect status.

        • Kyle

          That’s just a half-step beyond saying “if baseball ability wasn’t part of the equation, you could easily make the argument…”

          • Jason P

            Except I’m not saying now nor have I said at any point on this thread that age isn’t a very significant part of prospect evaluation.

  • Patrick G

    “@ExamineBaseball: Based on multiple conversations throughout the day w/ personnel across the baseball spectrum Matt Garza will be a Diamondback in a few days.”

    Not sure how credible this is but intriguing none the less

    • mdavis

      i took a quick glance at their system, and other than bradley and skaggs most of their more advanced talent appears to be postion players? Davidson, Owings? maybe someone more knolwedgeable can throw some arms out.

      • Mick

        Randall Delgado for multiple reasons:

        1. He wasn’t drafted by the organization, more of a thow-in with Prado, Ahmed and Spruill (who might add to this list except he’s currently on the DL)

        2. Garza would essentially be replacing Delgado in the rotation so he’d moved to the bullpen or demoted to AAA.

        Throw in Davidson with Delgado and goodnight, there’s your great deal.

        • gocatsgo2003

          And we know Delgado is high on the Front Office’s list after the Atlanta dealings last year (DAMN YOU DEMPSTER!!! {SHAKES FIST AT SKY!}).

      • http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

        Owings is intriguing. Will be just 22 in August. Has 2000 Minor ABs, but does not walk, has some pop, some speed. He’d be a 2nd piece, I’d require it entice at bit. Convert to a 2B.
        He’s tore up AAA, but that’s AAA.
        http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p2614

        LHP David Holmberg at least that could be looked at for pitching. I love lefties, being one helps. And people load up on them because lefty power hitters eat up lots of RH pitching.
        http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p2646

      • Cub Fan in Hickory(Mike S)

        Stryker Trahan is a name to watch if cubs are dealing with dbacks

        • gocatsgo2003

          Shoot, it’s a name to watch regardless just on its own:

          Doctor: “Mr. and Mrs. Trahan… congratulations! What do you want to name your son?”

          Mr. and Mrs. Trahan: “Stryker. With a ‘y’.”

          Doctor: “Umm… OK?”

          • JB88

            It isn’t too uncommon of a name. One of the largest medical device companies in the world is named Stryker and there is a winery in Sonoma known as Stryker also. Could be they are fans of wine and knee replacement surgeries …

            • gocatsgo2003

              None of which makes it any less awesome.

            • CubsFaninMS

              My favorite snack bar is Kashi. I would never name my child that.

            • Jp3

              Not to mention they could just be HUGE fans of the movie Airplane?

        • mdavis

          i’d like a combo of delgado, davidson, owings, holmberg, trahan.

          let me clarify, not all of those because thats a pipe dream. but maybe 3 out of that group. too much?

          • http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

            Oh, if we got owings, holmberg, and stryker, I’d say we got plenty. (The AZ fans would say they got had.)

            They need BP help, so if we tossed in Gregg w/ Garza, that possibly could net those, and a lottery ticket SP A-baller we’ve never heard of that has hit 90 on the gun and can find the plate most days.

            Stryker is a ways off from catching in the bigs. So, its a fair for the gamble.

  • Mick

    I wonder if Matt Garza’s scheduled Saturday start versus the Diamondbacks is any added incentive for the DBacks to make a deal with us or if it’s an added incentive to other NL West teams to wait to make a deal with us. I mean, if I were the Dodgers, wouldn’t I want Garza to pitch for the Cubs this Saturday?

    • JB88

      Only one hole in your theory: the Cubs play the Rockies and the Dbacks play the Giants this weekend.

      Of course, given that I’ll be in SF for the game on Sunday, there is a small part of me that is hoping he is traded to the Dbacks and faces off against the Giants on Sunday, instead.

      • Mick

        Ah crap, you’re right, welp…

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