Quantcast

wallet cashIt’s a travel day for me, which means typical-ish posting, but I won’t be around as much in the comments/Twitter/Facebook. Be good.

I’m headed to Wrigley Field tonight for Social Media Night (I’ll be wearing my blue BN shirt and wearing my beautiful and distinctive blue and yellow kicks), and I hope to see/meet many of you there. I’ll also be at the game tomorrow (bleachers, right field corner near the LED board), and hanging at Casey Moran’s after the game. Join, say hello, and be merry.

  • Although the Cubs’ official release on the David DeJesus trade didn’t explicitly say that the deal was of the dreaded “for a player to be named later or cash” variety (the universal signal that the return is going to be akin to bupkis), it sounds like it was. And, according to Bruce Levine, the Cubs will indeed be receiving a “nominal amount” of cash for DeJesus. If you needed any further confirmation that the move was primarily dictated by the cost savings ($2.5 million), as well as peripheral benefits (roster limitations, seeing Bogusevic and Sweeney, etc.), there you have it.
  • Dale Sveum and Anthony Rizzo talk about the first baseman’s sophomore struggles. (Although this is technically his third year in the bigs (partial), it really does feel more like his second, yes?)
  • Speaking of Rizzo, he tells Mark Gonzales that DeJesus being traded “doesn’t make the best sense, but it’s a business.” He shares some additional thoughts on the trade and on the nature of the business of baseball. Interesting thoughts from Ryan Sweeney in that piece, too, on his eventual return to the outfield.
  • Starlin Castro said he wasn’t happy about batting 8th, but it doesn’t sound like he’s angry with Dale Sveum for the decision, per ESPN. Castro says he just has to stop thinking so much at the plate, and go back to the guy he was before – i.e., before the Cubs worked with him on his approach – and be more aggressive early in the count.
  • Tim Baffoe with an interesting read on brain development and Starlin Castro.
  • An analysis at FanGraphs agreed with my assessment of that Donnie Murphy non-check-swing-strikeout call the other day. It was the most egregiously bad umpiring of a day full of egregiously bad umpiring.
  • Nats President Mike Rizzo remains complimentary of the Cubs’ rebuilding efforts.
  • Former big leaguer Gabe Kapler offers a long, thoughtful take on PEDs.
  • I won’t be able to dig into it until tomorrow because of the travels, but you should check out this CCO transcript of a recent MLBN interview with Theo Epstein. In short, the good news is, with TV deal changes and the Wrigley renovation, Epstein is expecting payroll to eventually return to the 2011 levels ($140 million) and climb from there. The bad news is that the various city/neighborhood/alderman/rooftop delays in the renovation approval process has probably pushed construction back another year (meaning, the Cubs probably won’t be able to start construction until after next season – maybe Epstein is just playing the game, but it’s possible that we’ve really now reached that point).
  • MichiganGoat

    Wait so Castro doesn’t blame Sveum? So does that mean fans will stop blaming Sveum for Castro? Hell NO!

  • MichiganGoat

    Well one thing we can blame is the “city/neighborhood/alderman/rooftop” for blocking the Cubs from success next year. Hey can we also blame them for Castro?

    • Frank

      I’m predicting Castro to break out in a few weeks. My reasoning? DeJesus being traded. I’m guessing that DeJesus had a picture of Kim in a bikini taped in his locker, Castro would pass by the locker on his way out of the clubhouse and see the picture. Being young and having a testosterone level higher than Ryan Braun (that’s hard to believe) Castro would be thinking about that picture all day and not be able to concentrate on baseball.
      Now that DeJesus is gone and so is the picture, Castro can get back to normal.

    • Herp A. Derp

      Castro blame! Castro blame!

      • wilbur

        As a cub fan, I think we are all to blame.

  • C. Steadman

    DDJ deal was a necessary evil to bring in savings…Boggy homered in first game back which made it a little more bearable, but i liked DDJ’s style of play ever since i saw him play with KC, best of luck to him and i’d like to see him return next year if the big guys bring him back

  • Jon

    Phil Rodgers, aka “The Oracle of Baseball Stupidity” suggested sending Castro down to AAA this morning on Chicago radio. (670AM)

  • Coldneck

    I wonder if Castro will be upset when he’s batting 6th at Iowa?

  • MXB

    I think the nominal cash for DeJesus is a make good with the Nationals since Theo/Hoyer pretty much won huge getting Pineyro for Hairston

    • Chad

      No

    • Jon

      No

  • Jon

    While I don’t have a problem with the trade(DDJ wasn’t worth 6.5 million next year) it’s scary in the sense that this was purely a financial move. Papa really must be pinching pennies.

    • Chad

      It probably had to do more with evaluating Bogusevic and Sweeney for next year and you might as well save 2.5 million while doing it, rather than just saving the 2.5 mil. If I had to guess.

      • King Jeff

        I’ll give you Sweeney, it will be nice to see what he can do with extended playing time, but Bogusevic is a 29 year old with a 230 career average. Do we really need to watch auditions for the 5th outfielder spot for the rest of the year?

      • Jon

        What really is there to evaluate with Bogusevic or Sweeney though? At best they are 4th outfielders on a contending team. Both are in their late 20’s, it’s not like either is going to break out into a 3-4 win outfielder at any point.

        • King Jeff

          Add Gillespie, Cody Ransom, Darnell McDonald, and Donnie Murphy to the list. With no prospects that are ready on the horizon, it’s looking like the 2014 bench auditions have begun.

          • MichiganGoat

            I agree that none of those players are better than DDJ but if the FO has no plans to pick up his option then letting him go saves 2.5M so why not.

            • King Jeff

              I can see the point, I am just not very fond of it.

          • ssckelley

            Exactly!

            Although I am still puzzled why they chose to add 34 year old McDonald to the 40 man instead of recalling 26 year old Sappelt.

        • ssckelley

          Yes, whether or not they are worth keeping around as 4th/5th outfielders for next year.

        • jt

          “What really is there to evaluate with Bogusevic or Sweeney though? At best they are 4th outfielders on a contending team. ”
          –Jon
          *
          Sweeney’s 2012 season OBP of 0.303 in 219 PA’s has brought his career OBP down to 0.338. In his other seasons of a bit over 1800 PA’s he has pretty much been a 0.345 OBP guy. There are indications that he has increased his power a bit and that would increase his career 0.387 SLG.
          So…. if he evaluates to a 0.345 OBP and 0.410 SLG CF’er with decent defensive abilities….. you pretty much get a DDJ equivalent for less money.
          That is why they may want to evaluate him.

          • ssckelley

            Good points. Honestly I think the FO is enamored with Sweeney and see him as another potential Schierholtz. Sweeney put up decent numbers when he was a regular in Oakland and I think the Cubs see a younger/cheaper version of DeJesus in him. When he got off to that hot start at Iowa, started hitting with power, and then put up good numbers when he was called up the FO started looking to find ways to fit him into their plans.

    • JoeyCollins

      If you think saving 2.5 MIL by giving up basically nothing more power to you. Just Because someone is worth Billions doesn’t mean they don’t appreciate the value of a couple Million.

    • Edwin

      Who do you think the Cubs will replace DeJesus with?

  • Edwin

    So, is this Nominal Cash guy a good player or what? I looked in the minors for him but couldn’t find anything.

    • wvcubsfan

      I think he might be Johnny’s great-great-great-grandson. So if nothing else he could entertain on the bus rides.

  • gocatsgo2003

    I don’t get it… is this a situation in which the Nats claimed DeJesus to keep him from getting to another team (Pittsburgh maybe?) while assuming the Cubs would pull back the revocable waiver? Are they trying to save face by putting together some kind of trade?

    • JoeyCollins

      That’s kind of what I thought when I first heard it might have been a mistake. The Nationals got the Cubs to agree on calling it a PTBNL so it looked like a trade they wanted to make, but really the Cubs just stiffed them with a 2.5 mil bill for a player they didn’t want.

    • MichiganGoat

      I think this close to what happened: they claimed him to block him to another (this happens alot) and when the Cubs asked what are they willing to offer they jokingly said “I don’t know how about a roll of quarters?” Thinking that the Cubs would pull him back (and thereby taking off the trade market) but then the Cubs said “sold!”

      • ssckelley

        Funny, but you are probably right.

  • Frank

    “before the Cubs worked with him on his approach – and be more aggressive early in the count.”
    If this is the case, the coach’s are doing a piss poor job, because all year he just sits on the first pitch and when he’s in the hole, he swings at anything. How about this…if it’s not broken, don’t fix it.

    • Chad

      His approach was never really that great to begin with. The cubs are trying to teach patience and approach up and down the system. Had to do it with Castro as weill in my opinion.Now it is not necessarily working with Castro, but it had to be tried. It has seemed to work with Baez etc. in lower levels as they become more patient (they’re not great) but getting better.

      • MichiganGoat

        Yeah I think it was and is worth trying to turn Castto into more than a slap hitter that jumps early on pitches and flaps a single. They are trying to get him to be selective with his pitches and find the ones he can drive- unfortunately Castro has not learned this so maybe all he will be is a slap hitter and lets just hope pitchers haven’t learned how to exploit that.

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      Read again.

    • cubzfan

      My take on Castro is that he never learned an approach. His hand-eye coordination was so good that he could hit any pitch with the barrel of the bat. But, like any hitter, he has some hot and some cold zones. I’ll admit it’s possible that coaching “messed him up.” But it’s also possible that he just started into a slump–maybe due to a minor injury, like a sore back ankle that affected his timing. It happens all the time to hitters. But Castro couldn’t diagnose the issue on his own, because he didn’t really know his own swing and didn’t have a plan at the plate. Then, whether or not he got good advice from the coaches, he couldn’t put it into play, because he didn’t know what he was doing before that was working, besides “see ball, hit ball.” At some point in his career, his eyesight will be just that tiny bit weaker, or his core muscles will be just a little less powerful, or his shoulder will be sore from throwing, and he will need to tweak his swing to catch up to balls again. This season, it seems like he can’t hit a good fastball. The best case is that this year forces him to work over the winter either to change his swing/approach or at least to understand it, so he can make adjustments in the future.

  • King Jeff

    This DeJesus move makes me angry. I like Bogusevic and Sweeney just fine, but it’s not like DeJesus was breaking the bank, or would have forced the Cubs into a bad salary situation for next year. If we are at the point where saving 2 million dollars on payroll is a big deal to the teams’ finances, then the Cubs are in a much worse state than I had thought. I am starting to feel not so optimistic about the upcoming offseason moves.

    • On The Farm

      Or you could think that getting rid of him now saves them money this year and next. Now they can get a more extended look at Sweeney and Bogie with DeJesus not fighting for playing time. Also, with DeJesus gone, they already have the spot open to go out and pursue a FA. I don’t know how you can automatically assume because they traded DeJesus in a lost season they are already giving up on next season.

    • MichiganGoat

      I think it’s more about the roster spot than the cash, the FO must have had no intentions of picking up his option and saw a way to gain a couple mil in the process.

      • hansman1982

        This. I feel that the Cubs “penny pinching ways” have gotten blown far out of proportion. While they will work to maximize every dollar they have and not spend a dollar if they don’t have to, I don’t think they are as broke as it seems.

        • Eternal pessemist

          And what’s wrong with saving 2.5 mil in the process, and in a lost season. It ain’t monopoly money! Also, Theo just indicated that the Cubs expect to generate the revenue as the new changes (stadium, ads, tv deal) come in so they will be back to tribune payroll levels and more. And i dont believe they intend to neglect the minor league in the process!

    • QCfan

      For your sake, I hope they don’t put Navarro on waivers in an attempt to save six weeks worth of salary on a 1.75M contract.

    • cms0101

      I just can’t understand why everyone continues to harp on the DeJesus trade. He’s a middling performing OF that should be on someone’s bench, not playing everyday. There are more than enough veteran guys to take the place of his “leadership”. And his wife wasn’t the only hot woman in Chicagoland. Bogusevic, while not sexy, will perform at or better than Dejesus’s level for a fraction of the cost. Same with Sweeney. And both are better overall outfielders. Plus, Lake still gets his at bats and time in the OF. Why not save the money? Seems logical to me. I don’t think they put him on waivers specifically to cut expenses, but it’s certainly a nice benefit, without losing much. If people are pissed about the money aspect of this, they are misguided. If anything, be pissed at the $500k savings the Cubs got back for Marmol, while costing themselves $400k in international pool money. Because they are over the limit as it is, they pay a 100% tax on that amount. So in theory, they lost money. They could have just cut Marmol outright and would have saved more in the long run. THAT’s the move that doesn’t really make sense. DeJesus makes perfect sense.

      • Pat

        “Bogusevic, while not sexy, will perform at or better than Dejesus’s level for a fraction of the cost.’

        Not sure where you are getting this.

        Bogusevic this year .655 OPS (career .656)
        DeJesus this year .732 OPS (career .771)

        DeJesus has never been as bad as Bogusevic is this year, or has been for his career.

        • ssckelley

          Bogusevic is still learning and developing as a hitter while DeJesus is on the decline. Bogusevic has only been a position player the past 5 years as the Astros drafted him to be a pitcher. Small sample size if you are looking at his year to date, he was hitting really well down at Iowa (.922 OPS) before he got called up. There is a good chance either Bogusevic, Sweeney, or both end up being better than DeJesus.

    • ssckelley

      Jeff, before you get to worked up go take a look at the list of potential outfield free agents for next season and see what you can get for 6.5 million or a little more.

      Here is one from BP: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2014/

      The list is not very sexy but for 6.5 to 10 million I can find a handful of players better than DeJesus. Sweeney or Bogusevic might be able to replace DeJesus as a lefthanded outfielder coming off the bench, pretty much at a league minimum contract. Plus add in the fact the Cubs saved 1.5 million from the payroll for this season and honestly this deal was a no brainer.

  • Jon

    Btw, that interview with Theo is really, really, awesome. Everyone needs to read it.

    • Werner

      You are right. And it puts the Dejesus deal in perspective, i.e. yeah he’s a nice player that the FO has rightfully praised but in the wider and longer view he is a speck on the windshield.

  • CM

    Personally, I thought the best team the Cubs fielded this year was when Sweeny was in the lineup. I know he projects as a 4th outfielder, but as a cheap CF with a good bat and eye, I think he deserves an extended look. (again)

  • ssckelley

    It is strange how so many people are bent out of shape over DeJesus leaving while many were glad to see Soriano gone.

    • King Jeff

      I don’t like either move.

    • Frank

      I personally like any move that would bring a World Series title to Wrigley Field.

      • scorecardpaul

        Frank,
        I agree with this!
        I have faith that that is still the goal.

    • Jon

      At least we got an intriguing arm back for Soriano.

    • hansman1982

      HOORAY IRRATIONAL FANHOOD!

  • hansman1982

    Wow, so apparently the Cubs had no intentions of picking up DeJesus’ option.

    • ssckelley

      I think the Cubs were up until Lake showed up and started hitting really well. I think the Cubs were fine with DeJesus starting in center and seeing what they had in Sweeney and Bogusevic playing in left. Now with needing to find a place to play Lake they were forced to dump DeJesus so they could audition Sweeney/Bogusevic. They have kept the door open to getting DeJesus back if the 3 crash and burn leaving the Cubs needing a left handed outfielder heading into next season. The Nats happened to be the unfortunate team to have gotten in the way of the Cubs getting something of value for him as I think the Pirates would have wanted him.

    • http://www.hookersorcake.com Hookers or Cake

      Yeah we just don’t need another LH OF. Especially a mediocre 33 yr old one who can save us 2.5 million. Which is probably more than what Sweeney would cost. Also September call ups are coming. Ha – Szczur maybe? Why waste ABs, money, and a ’14 roster spot. Those roster spots are gonna be pretty valuable this off season.
      I’m sure Dejesus would even resign for cheaper. But I’m hoping for something a little more exciting.

  • Chris

    Rizzo was technically a rookie last season (accumulated more than 150 ABs). So technically, yes, this is his sophomore season

  • cub2014

    Trading dejesus was à smart move for 3 reasons:
    1. Get to see prospects play; sweeney lake maybe ha?
    2. Save Some cash Get another prospect
    3. If they want they Can abd probably will
    Get dejesus back for à cheaper contract

    • Jon

      Splitting hairs, but they didn’t get another prospect.

  • DarthHater

    Brett did not report the most telling line from the Baffoe article: “What we may need to come to terms with is that the Cubs supremely talented shortstop may be… well… dumb.”

    • MichiganGoat

      So was Ricky Henderson so know we should care the two, right?

      • DarthHater

        Professor, the Goat’s speech mutation seems to be wearing off! :-P

        • MichiganGoat

          Damn that bad… No more holding Jr while trying to type.

          • Cubbie Blues

            I hope that isn’t a euphemism.

            • MichiganGoat

              Dirtbag

              • hansman1982

                You’re the one that is holding your “Jr.” while typing here…

                • DarthHater

                  The only “Jr.” hansman is holding is Carl’s Jr. ;-)

                  • Cubbie Blues

                    Who is Carl?

                  • MichiganGoat

                    Well he be hold at least 4 Carl Jr otherwise he’d get hungry and then the Hulk like rage appears.

            • DarthHater

              Heh.

  • C. Steadman

    Anybody know Sweeney’s injury progress? how soon he’ll be back?

  • fortyonenorth

    Speaking of Castro’s struggles, did anyone catch the dialog between Len and J.D. on Monday night regarding Junior Lake? That were discussing Lake’s aggressive approach (e.g. swinging at first pitches) and J.D. was going on and on about how Theo and Jed understand that you can’t change a hitter–“they are who they are”–and, as a manager/exec you just need to figure out if/how they fit into your lineup. I couldn’t help but see the irony surrounding their attempts to mold Castro.

    • ssckelley

      I caught that as well and I agree with it up to a point. If the guy is hitting then leave him alone but if he is struggling then look to make changes.

      • Scott

        Yep, that is the approach I would like to see. Don’t fix it unless it’s broken. I would gladly take the “old” Castro who was hitting .300-.310, than have him try to be more selective, and get what we have gotten out of him this year, and even last year. Don’t miss with a guy’s brain – surest way to ruin a good thing. O

    • cubzfan

      Sounds to me like they were willing to take this year to see if Castro could improve in the on-base department. Now, they may be conceding that he just isn’t that type of hitter. And if so, I do look for him to be traded in the next couple of years.

  • Jon
  • gary

    I think the management has done some good and some bad things. The bad
    1. Messing with castro’s approach to hitting. They have taken a .300 hitter and made him a .250 hitter. Poor job.

    2. Giving Soriano away for basically not much. Keep him around for next year. We don’t have another power hitter like him. Are we that desperate for cash that we had to save 4 to 5 million. If we are then the Ricketts should have never bought the cubs.

    Would like other people’s thoughts.

    • Blublud

      The first one, sure. I don’t think they should have screwed with his approach, but I guess it was worth a shot in what was always going to be a few lost years.

      As for the Soriano trade, not so much. I think it was a decent trade. I think Black will be a big league contributor at some point.

  • Blublud

    I think people are blowing this trade out of proportion. This has nothing to do with being cheap and only makes sense. How anyone can see this as being cheap is mind boggling. Dejesus was not coming back next year, so what good was keeping him for the remainder of the season on a team not even close to the playoffs. If you could save his remaining salary, plus the buyout you would have had to pay anyway in the process, why not make this move if you are the Cubs.

    • MichiganGoat

      It’s mainly due to the DDJ and equally Kim love that are upsetting the fan base.

      • wilbur

        Fanbase should be happy with the trade then, since by saving 2.5 million and avoiding having to buy out his contract, the cubs are better positioned to possibly bring him back next year than if he had stayed. And perhaps they bring him back at a more team friendly contract. Unless DDJ can get a better deal somewhere else. I don’t think the Nats will pay him 6.5 for his second year, or want to carry him on their roster over the winter either. This way the cubs get the off season roster flexibility they want, save a few million, and still have the option of bringing DDJ back next season. Something the cubs probably wouldn’t have considered if they had to buy out his option at the end of the season. Maybe they save 2.5 this year and sign him for 3.5 next year? Kim may be hitting the champagne bottle here again next season.

    • cms0101

      He certainly was not coming back for $6.5mil. If Sweeney decides he wants to play somewhere else next year, and Bogusevic shows he’s not serviceable, I could see DeJesus coming back on a much less expensive contract next year. It’s unlikely, but his/his wife’s love for the city might push him to take even less than he’ll get somewhere else.

  • FastBall

    I think the Nats claiming DJ may have been a back channel deal between the Cardinals and Nats or some other team. The GM’s did each other a favor. Blocking DJ from getting potentially claimed by the Pirates. This may have just been a favor for another GM. I am sure that happens more than is ever reported. It’s probably made good between the GM’s in a deal down the line.

    • cms0101

      That seems to be the most logical scenario. He helped someone else block the Pirates from getting him.

  • jh03

    On that Epstein transcript – I can’t believe he opened up so much about the deal with Texas. That’s normally not his style.

  • Spencer

    Here is a really interesting and good article about Anthony Rizzo’s struggles that didn’t make it into the bullets this morning:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/19366/facing-up-to-their-future

    Also, on the off chance that you dislike the St. Louis Cardinals, then you should watch this video from last week’s series:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZ8HluezIQc

  • cubsin

    I’ve seen several posts here and elsewhere suggesting that the Nationals claimed DeJesus to keep him away from the Pirates. I fail to see any reason why a sub-.500 NL East team would care whether or not the NL Central’s Pirates would claim him. I suppose it’s possible that the Nationals and the Reds, Pirates or Cardinals have an agreement to keep him away from the other two NL Central teams, but I still fail to see why the Nationals would spend $2.5 million to have a spare outfielder for six weeks.

    • cms0101

      There is clearly something more going on with this trade. There is some kind of wink/nod with one of the other contending teams. That is the only option that makes any kind of sense. $2.5 million is an expensive favor, but that’s got to be what it is.

  • http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

    Good articles Brett.

    The Theo article suggested a 300 million renovation? Isn’t it 500 million?
    http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/9505804/city-chicago-approves-500-million-wrigley-field-renovations

    I hate to quibble over $200 million.

    I think the tenor supports the idea that 2015 is the year we are back to a “large market” team payrolls as the time horizon of minor league talent, 50% of the TV deal done, and the renovations (not to be physically started until after 2014) lock together.

    • wilbur

      Some of the numbers I’ve seen suggest it is 300 mil for stadium and 200 for hotel and ancillary development. I imagine all those numbers will change once you get into construction season.. I’m still not sure it is 100 percent certain they won’t move. Did the roof top owners just put a bunch more of their own signage on their buildings??? That may not sit well with the cubs owners, They had to grovel to put up two signs in the outfield, and the rooftops slap theirs up in the dark of night and no one says a word about it? Wrigleyville could start looking like Times square or the Ginsa by the time the “signage wars” are ended, or the team may want to move to where they can control their TELEVISION ADVERTISING backdrop. That is where the real money is.

      • Cubbie Blues

        300/200 breakdown is correct on what has been reported.

  • Voice of Reason

    Matsuzaka was just given his walking papers by the Indians. He has pitched well recently at Triple A.
    Signing Dice makes perfect sense for the Cubs! Stick him in the bullpen with some spot starts. Another starter that could be spun if he pitches well!

    • Cubbie Blues

      I saw him pitch earlier in the year and I know, small sample size and all, but he dealt really well first two times through the order then the third time he started to get shelled before getting yanked. Pie did well off of him the whole game.

    • ssckelley

      Interesting, perhaps a fresh start in the National League is all he needs to turn his once promising career around.

  • Kevin

    Why is Castro being pushed in front of the bus while Rizzo’s (OMG) batting average is a lot lower. I know Rizzo is Theo’s boy but all this talk about Castro should be secondary.

    • C. Steadman

      Rizzo’s OPS is 140 points higher and defense is better…he show mental lapses like castro does, but agree that Rizzos struggles with RISP are not to be ignored since he is projected middle of the order for years to come

    • C. Steadman

      Rizzo’s OPS is 140 points higher and defense is better…he doesnt show mental lapses like castro does, but agree that Rizzos struggles with RISP are not to be ignored since he is projected middle of the order for years to come

    • Eternal pessemist

      Rizzo’s OPS is about 120 higher than Castro’s. Batting average is not a very useful stat.

      • wilbur

        True, but batting average got Castro to two allstar games, until he was replaced by all star Lahair.

        • Eternal Pessimist

          Castro’s OPS was 160 points higher in 2011 and 140 points higher in 2012…I would argue that his advanced metrics were more reflective of his overall performance, and the reason he was selected to the All-Star teams.

    • willis

      Oh boy, you did it now mentioning batting average. Prepare for the carnage.

      • Mr. B. Patient

        :-)

      • mjhurdle

        i dont think it is mentioning BA that brings out the “carnage”. It is using it as the sole support of an argument.
        An argument supported by one stat only (especially one as shallow as BA) is often easily picked apart.
        So what someone might view as “carnage” of something simply because of using BA could probably better be described as the natural disassembling of a poorly constructed theory/opinion.

      • hansman1982

        Well, when you decry a player’s production solely based on the triple slash stat that correlates the worst with runs scored, yes, prepare to be educated that there are better things (that are just as easy to obtain) to base production on.

        • willis

          Jesus I was just fing around because BA is so pissed on around here. No one needs an education from anyone. It’s funny, somone mentions BA and they get tatooed with negative responses in most cases. So, I was speaking to that in a tongue in cheek way.

          His RISP does suck terribly this year. That’s kind of like the truth and all.

          • Mr. B. Patient

            Why can saber-ninja’s throw out one imperfect stat, and it’s lokay, but when someone throws out a stat (imperfect as it is) that Bill James doesn’t like,it’s not okay.

            NO one stat is perfect. To get a true picture of a players production, you need to look at a wide range. But guess what avg is a legitimate stat to look at. Especially BA w/RISP. That actually has a direct correlation to runs scored.

            It would be so easy to have these conversations if there WAS a perfect stat.
            There isn’t.

            • mjhurdle

              Recap of this thread:
              OP – Why isn’t everyone all over Rizzo as well as Castro, because Rizzo’s avg is also lower.
              Response 1 – His OBP and defense are better than Castro’s
              Response 2 – His OBP is better
              Response 3 – joking remark.

              So it seems like everything basically went down exactly like you wanted it to, with the addition of a little humor.
              Someone tried to use one stat, other people broadened that to include other stats to show the difference, and life went on.

            • Kyle

              Correlation to runs scored isn’t particularly important if the stat itself isn’t persistent.

              • Mr. B. Patient

                Since runs scored (and their prevention) is the most important thing in baseball, we do need a perfect stat that shows how everything that happens relates to runs.

                • Chad

                  There is no such thing as a perfect statistic. It’s not feasible to get something that is 100% predictive.

                • Kyle

                  That’s simultaneously incorrect and completely unrelated to either my post or your assertion that I was replying to.

                • hansman1982

                  wOBA is pretty darn good at what you’re asking for there.

            • hansman1982

              “Why can saber-ninja’s throw out one imperfect stat”

              A: Saber-ninja’s do nothing imperfectly
              B: What stat are you talkiung about?
              C: Most saber-ninja’s don’t claim that any stat is perfect. They will tell you that sabermetrics do a better job of describing what the player has done and their impact to the team. BA is a bad stat in describing the level of impact, otherwise Tony Campana could be called a better batter than Carlos Pena. (The funny thing is, BA used to be decried as a fancy-pants saber-ninja-not-perfect stat)

            • hansman1982

              “That actually has a direct correlation to runs scored.”

              It doesn’t have a direct correlation. The last time I looked at last year’s stats, BA was somewhere around .780 for correlation. OPS was somewhere north of .980 and wOBA is a few ticks better than OPS.

              But hey, BA is a great stat.

              • Mr. B. Patient

                Who said BA was a great stat. My argument is there are NO great stats. Whatever stat you use, since there is NO one great stat. have to be used with other stats.

                (btw, where can I look up the formulas that were used to determine run correlation to OPS and wOPS?)

                • C. Steadman
                • hansman1982

                  Go to fangraphs.com and export the Major LEague Team stats to excel. Type =correl(click and drag the column for runs and then press F4, click and drag the next column over)

                  Then in the lower left corner of that box you will see a black square, click and drag that over so you have a correlation number for each stat category.

                  This year:
                  1. RBI – .996 (makes sense since most runs will also be an RBI)
                  2. wOBA – .948
                  3. OPS – .942
                  4. SLG – .889
                  5. OBP – .875
                  8. BA – .762

                  There are a lot of great stats, stats that tell a giant part of the story like wOBA or OPS (even they don’t tell the whole story). BA tells such a small part of the story that it is nearly worthless considering how easy it is to get better stats.

                  When comparing two players offensive value, OPS or wOBA are SO much better than BA.

                  • On The Farm

                    That was pretty cool, thanks for that.

                  • C. Steadman

                    Theo should hire you

                    • MichiganGoat

                      They won’t meet his hamburger salary requirements

                    • DarthHater

                      What? Ricketts bought a McDonald’s right across the street just last year, didn’t he?

                    • hansman1982

                      Why do you think they bought the McD’s.

                    • DarthHater

                      I figured it was so they could use it to lure you out of the bleachers, if you refused to leave after a game.

                  • DarthHater

                    Wait a minute. So RBI tells us the most about a player’s value? ;-)

                    • mjhurdle

                      [img]http://s8.postimg.org/v6gs9tqmd/rbi.jpg[/img]

                  • Mr. B. Patient

                    Thank You. I’ll check it out.

                    Let’s be clear. I never said said avg is the end all be all. Never. Just said it can’t be ignored.

                    On the formulas on Fangraphs, how do they account for the fact that BA is about 70% of what makes up OBP, and 100% of what makes up Slg %. (and, wOBP?).

                    • DarthHater

                      Since BA gives a single the same weight as a double, a triple, or a HR, it obviously does not constitute 100% of what makes up SLG.

                    • hansman1982

                      BA doesn’t make up 100% of SLG. BA weights all of the hits the same, SLG gives each one a weight of the number of bases you get on a hit. Each of these, independently, are poor at determining value (although SLG > BA).

                      Each of the triple slash stats, alone, only tell one specific part of the story. It’d be like trying to figure out everything of the Harry Potter series by only reading 1 book. This is what makes OPS and wOBA better. Each of these encompass nearly everything (wOBA is everything and it’s weighted to account for the average run production of a double) so it’s like reading 6 of the 7 Potter books.

                  • jt

                    “Go to fangraphs.com and export the Major LEague Team stats to excel.”
                    –hansman1982
                    *
                    From avg/obp/slg in an age of wOBA
                    By Matt Klaasen June 27, 2011 at Fangraphs
                    *
                    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/avgobpslg-in-an-age-of-woba/
                    2010 same team same wOBA = 0.380
                    Ryan Braun: .304/.365/.501
                    Prince Fielder: .261/.401/.471
                    Much the same as I’d bat Mathews ahead of Aaron, I’d bat Prince ahead of Braun in 2010 based upon the slash line.
                    Fielder is not going to make as many outs. He is going to reach base more often. He is not going to put the ball in play as often. Fielder is also not going to have the same success rate when he does put the ball in play.
                    *
                    From hansman1982 quoting Fangraphs
                    “This year:
                    1. RBI – .996 (makes sense since most runs will also be an RBI)
                    2. wOBA – .948
                    3. OPS – .942
                    4. SLG – .889
                    5. OBP – .875
                    8. BA – .762″
                    *
                    Let us assume that because Braun and Prince share the same wOBA they have the same probability to produce runs. Does this integrate into consideration the effect of the increased amount of outs on the team that Braun made via the lower OBP? That is to say, Prince’s OBP allowed more Brewers teammates to bat than did Braun’s. Those teammates would also contribute to The Brewers run production.

                    • jt

                      ” (wOBA is … like reading 6 of the 7 Potter books.”
                      — hansman1982
                      *
                      actually, it is like reading The Cliff Notes.
                      wOBA is a GREAT screening tool. It provides a real efficient index as to where in the story to search. However, it fails to tell the whole story.

            • DarthHater

              So, because no single stat is perfect, it follows that all stats are equally meaningful. Yea, that’s logical.

              • Mr. B. Patient

                Darth, to your reply about slg %. It’s not 100%.
                You are correct, I did not explain myself well.

                Slg% is very reliant on avg. As BA increases, the dividend (or numerator, if you prefer) also increases. That makes the quotient higher, thus a higher slg%.

                If a player gets a hit, slugging goes up. If not slugging goes down. Therefore, BA is important in that context.

                • Chad

                  WAR is the best metric to quantify a player’s value.

                  • Mr. B. Patient

                    Whose Version of WAR are you talking about?
                    Can a stat be ‘the best’ if it has different versions?
                    Can a stat be ‘the best’ if it has unscientific assumptions?

                    • Kyle

                      I can’t tell if this is particularly good trolling or particularly bad ignorance.

                    • Chad

                      The simple answer is yes. I said it is the best. The best that is currently available. I believe there could be much better, yes, but as of right now it does the best job of explaining a player’s value.

                    • Mr. B. Patient

                      To Kyle.
                      Why can’t it be both? :-).

                      You are free to answer my questions about WAR.

                    • DarthHater

                      [img]http://ashleyfmiller.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/memes-cant-tell-if-trolling.jpg[/img]

                    • DarthHater

                      Well, it’s not worth the trouble of fixing that image, but I just had to post a meme, because this is the time of day when Bleacher Nation Annie usually shows up to stalk me and I’d hate to disappoint her. :-P

                    • Kyle

                      I can’t answer your questions because they are based on assertions I didn’t make, and involve assumptions I don’t agree with.

                    • http://www.viewfromthebleachers.com Norm

                      “Whose Version of WAR are you talking about?
                      Can a stat be ‘the best’ if it has different versions?
                      Can a stat be ‘the best’ if it has unscientific assumptions?”

                      “WAR” isn’t a stat…it’s a framework.
                      fWAR or rWAR (Fangraphs version and Baseball-Reference’s version, respectively) are the stats based on the framework.

                • http://www.hookersorcake.com Hookers or Cake

                  Actually slugging is not very reliant on BA.
                  Slugging is total bases divided by ABs

                  Its why BA is such a bad stat. HRs, Trilples, Doubles, and singles all have equal value according to BA

                  Does anyone think a single and a homerun have the same value? (besides Bill Clinton)

                  BA thinks they are the same. Thats why people sound like idiots (Joe Morgan) when they reference BA.

                  • Mr. B. Patient

                    BA = the percentage of Abs in which a player gets a hit.
                    BA is a perfect stat. Very simple formula. No random assumptions. Just pure math.

                    I will agree that BA is only part of what should be looked at to determine a players worth.

                    • http://www.viewfromthebleachers.com Norm

                      Batting average IS a perfect stat. It tells you exactly what it is meant to tell you.
                      But if you are going to use AVG to tell you about how good the player is, then you’re using it wrong.

                  • DarthHater

                    The percentage contribution of AVG to SLG is hits divided by total bases. This will vary from player to player, depending on how much of a power hitter the player is. For Castro, this year, AVG contributes 70.6% of his SLG. For Rizzo, it’s 54.1%.

                    • Mr. B. Patient

                      Key word.
                      Hits.

                    • Cubbie Blues

                      Hang on there Darth, don’t get too math wizzy on us. Actually you are wrong. SLG=TB/AB.

                    • DarthHater

                      Hits. Are a varying and extremely incomplete contributing factor to overall batting performance.

                      FTFY

                    • DarthHater

                      CB, you didn’t read what I said carefully enough. I was not trying to give the formula for SLG. I was saying that the portion of SLG that corresponds to AVG is H/TB.

Bleacher Nation Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Bleacher Nation is a private media site, and it is not affiliated in any way with Major League Baseball or the Chicago Cubs. Neither MLB nor the Chicago Cubs have endorsed, supported, directed, or participated in the creation of the content at this site, or in the creation of the site itself. It's just a media site that happens to cover the Chicago Cubs.

Bleacher Nation is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.

Google+