Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 2, Pirates 3 – September 15, 2013

The Cubs tied it up late – after being no-hit for six innings – but Pedro Strop couldn’t keep things tied. The Pirates win the day, and the series. Travis Wood pitched pretty well again, for what it’s worth.

sept 15 box

Full box.

Brett Taylor is the editor and lead writer at Bleacher Nation, and can also be found as Bleacher Nation on Twitter and on Facebook.

118 responses to “Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 2, Pirates 3 – September 15, 2013”

  1. Rich

    Wake me up when season is over

    1. TOOT

      O.K>. It’s 2015 and Cubs are in first by 16 games, Enjoy!

  2. Adventurecizin' Justin

    Seriously, the 1st place Pirates will be the first to say that it wasn’t an easy series win. Our record may suck, but the Cubs seem to be in every game. There are positives being overlooked by many.

    1. Mike

      The positives are almost exclusively the starting pitching, and sadly Samardzija being the recent exception. The pen has improved from the first half but Russell’s been a lot worse and Strop’s been a little shakier recently. The offense is really pathetic.

      That said, the Pirates shouldn’t be that happy with their offense in this series either. They have “WC game and done” written all over them.

  3. walterj

    With the Brewers and Twins winning , that gives the Cubs a little bit of breathing room for fourth pick in next years draft .

  4. Die hard

    No excuses next yr if Cubs win less than 90 given what’s available in manager mkt and their up and coming kids- if dont then Theo and company should be replaced for 2015

    1. Cubs_Questions

      Incorrect.

    2. chrisfchi

      So I will now blame Die Hard next year if the cubs don’t get 90 wins and will start a campaign to have him fired and replace with someone who has less relevant things to say.

      1. EvenBetterNewsV2.0

        Less relevant than Die Hard? Good luck. That is a tall task.

        1. chrisfchi

          I have a couple of customers that would fit the profile :)

    3. ClevelandCubsFan

      90 games? Don’t get me wrong. .. I’d love it. But the manager is good for what… 3 wins? We’re on pace for about 69 wins. Before the fire sale we were on pace for about 73 (though it probably was a bit low b/c of some bad chance). If we don’t sell off next year I think we could break .500. But it’s complicated by the fact that we’ll have one of the toughest schedules in baseball. And if we’re looking up at the Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals again, 83 or 84 wins won’t be very meaningful. Therefore I expect us to have another possibly smaller sell off next year leading to 74-80 wins. In 2015, though, I think 90-94 is very realistic.

  5. Cubbie Tim

    Good job Bucs. Cuck the Fardinals

  6. Eternal Pessimist

    Trying to stay positive with the performance of the pitching while hoping the batting/fielding centerpieces of our future will start to come through…sigh (gag).

    How much will a new batting coach in 2014 help?

  7. Lou Brock

    Bridge at 2B from Barney to Alcantare is a guy named Dean Anna from the Padres system. Led the PCL in avg. and is LH hitter with some gap power and high OBP. Can play SS and 3B as well. According to BA he has been Rule V eligible the last 2 years and will be again. He is same age as Barney and should provide better results than Valbuena or Watkins.

  8. Lou Brock

    .410 OBP and .892 OPS for all you stat guys on Dean Anna this year at AAA Tucson. Hit .340 vs. RHP and could platoon with Barney till Alcantara is ready.

    1. gocatsgo2003

      A 26-year old at AAA? Stop me before I am bowled over with excitement.

      1. Good Captain

        I don’t know if Anna is the best homie but if we make another Rule 5 selection this year, the past two selections of pitchers leaves me nonplussed on drafting another one (assuming no big surprises). I think a positional pick stands a better chance of benefitting the Team next year.

      2. Lou Brock

        Matt Carpenter’s first year of ML ball was in 2012 at the age of 27 would you take him as Barney’s replacement ? Sometimes it takes a while for a guy to get an opportunity and when he gets it he runs with it. Apparently you let a guys age decide whether he has the talent.

  9. salesguy

    I like any approach that gets us better offensively next year. I guess until he was gone I never gave Soriano credit for the stabilizing element he brought to the lineup on a day in, day out basis. We are going to need signings like Dean Anna, and other out of the box moves as well if we hope to be competitive next year.

  10. Brains

    Even Brett is resorting to gallows humor at this point. It’s been a long year. Next year could be dynamically different if the organization makes some very straight forward choices with dignity in mind.

  11. Josh

    So on the Junior Lake front. Is 200 AB’s enough to be done with the “small sample size” jargon to bed. Kid is straight rakin and playin decent defense. Do we think he is a legit player???

    1. hansman1982

      Nope. We had 700 PA last year of Chase Headley being a HoF 3B and that didn’t prove to carry into this year.

    2. MichiganGoat

      Hell no it takes more than 200 Aug/Sept AB to fully evaluate a player. The book on him has not been written and that BABIP is not sustainable, if he was Mike Trout then sure but he is not.

    3. Dustin S

      For me at least, I usually don’t count someone as a true legit long-term starter until they produce for a couple seasons in a row. I’ve seen too many Tyler Colvins and Brant Browns that hit .300 for a half season and never come close to that again. Even Rizzo has made me a bit nervous this year that he’ll be one of them. But, with every good day by Lake you feel a bit better. Going into this season I was hoping at a minimum that they’d find at least one diamond in the rough like Rizzo last year, and Lake has been it. There’s not much doubt that by default they’ll pencil him in for one of the OF slots next season. So he’ll have a chance to prove that this season wasn’t a fluke. It’s more just a matter of whether he ends up in LF or CF in the long run.

    4. chrisfchi

      Give me 2 seasons of 500 PA minimum, with this years numbers and avg. Defence and ill jump on the lake wagon

    5. ClevelandCubsFan

      200 PAs is still a relatively small sample. Dwight Smith, 1989, 381 PAs. Kevin Orie, 1997, 218 PA, and of course Joe Charboneau, 1980, 512 PAs.

      It’s not just a matter of sample size (thought that’s a big part of it), it’s looking at other factors in relation to that sample. Like his BABIP (batting average on balls in play). It’s ridiculously high at .388. BABIP, to my understanding, tends to be a bit jumpy at any given moment or in any given year. But it tends to average out of a player’s career. And it has little to do with a player’s skill. The league average BABIP is about .290. Good players and bad players do about. 290 o BABIP. Some players–maybe because their speed gives them a few extra base hits or because or they hit lots of liners–may be a bit higher. Some players–maybe because they hit lots of towering flies–may be a bit lower.

      But .388 is beyond unique skill set + elite talent level. To put it in perspective, Ted Williams only had a BABIP over that mark ONCE in his career–and it was in 6 games. Two other times he got close-ish. Ichiro Suzuki only did it twice. Looking at whole careers gives a better perspective. Ted Williams has a career BABIP of .328, and Ichiro has a career BABIP of .344 (more than 40 points below Lake!). Ichiro should be looked at as about the very top of the line for elite players’ BABIP over a career.

      Lake doesn’t fit in that category. In other words, Lake’s batting average must inevitably sink–unless he can redefine himself as a hitter. The problem is that his strikeouts mean he doesn’t put many balls into play. The closest comparison in terms of K% and BABIP (if we really believed he could keep this up) would be Mike Napoli this year. But Napoli has a lot more power. (And notice that Napoli, with a similar BABIP, is only hitting .261!)

      1. MichiganGoat

        Well said

      2. Blublud

        The problem with this is Lake has always had a very high BABIP. I’m not sure what his minor league average is, but I think its around .350. I’m not saying he’ll maintain his .380+ or even a .350, but it is not far fetch to expect him to have a high BABIP. Maybe in the .325-.330 range. No one is saying Lake is an all-star, but he is a future starter(4th OF at worse on a good team) in this league. He is a very legit Major Leaguer, and will be arou d in this league for a long time.

        1. Blublud

          And if he can even slightly reduce his MLB SO rate to just 20%, it is not inconceivable that he could be a career .300 hitter, or at least close to it.

          1. hansman1982

            It isn’t likely that Lake will be able to decrease his K rate (in the bigs) down to 20% outside of a career year. If he can be a legit “play 3 out of every 5 days” guy, he will probably have a long career as a Mark DeRosa-type.

            1. Drew7

              Playing MLB: The Show doesn’t count :)

        2. hansman1982

          Lake is doing something that I think he did before. Why do I think he did that before? Cuz, I played baseball.

        3. jt
      3. Headscratchin

        And who can forget Jerome Walton in the small sample size Olympics?

      4. jt

        1999 Jeter had a BAbip of 0.396
        2011 Miguel Cabrera 0.365
        2001 Lance Berkman 0.367
        1975 Bill Madlock 0.366
        1980 George Brett 0.368
        2009 Joe Mauer 0.373
        2012 Jeff Keppinger 0.332
        1993 John Olerud 0.375
        These are just guys I looked up from the top of my head.

        1. Drew7

          I don’t understand your point. Are you saying it *is* sustainable?

          1. jt

            Career numbers do not clearly reflect peak years.
            Cabrera and Berkman, for example, had years in which HR’s robbed points from their BAbip. Brett had years in which his OBP was more dependent upon BB. Some guys like Keppinger are pretty good banjo hitters who just happened to have a lot of things go right for them.
            But, with the exception of Keppinger, all the above were guys who were selectively aggressive. They did not swing at every pitch. But they never denied themselves the swing at “their” pitch. And they all, with the exception of Keppinger, hit the ball hard but not always with elevation.
            Do I think Lake can become such a hitter. MMMMMmmm! I have my doubts!
            But I now think he has a better chance than I gave him a couple of months ago.

            1. Hansman1982

              “Cabrera and Berkman, for example, had years in which HR’s robbed points from their BAbip. ”

              Actually, HR’s shouldn’t depress BABIP. Every hit for a HR WILL fall for a hit; however, if you were to shorten each of those HRs (or really any amount of them) won’t fall for a hit (well, I should say that they most likely won’t) fall for a hit. (I also now understand why HRs are excluded from BABIP calculations).

              Interesting that Cabrera (assuming you mean Miguel), has a high career BABIP.

              1. jt

                I understand what you are saying in that if you take away 5% of the distance you get a warning track out ( unless you are in a park such as Fenway or PNC with high fences).
                But…
                If a player changes his stroke to elevate more balls in order to get that 5% then he has changed his style and therefore his quality of stroke. And that does make a difference.

        2. jt

          I’m not a big fan of Junior Lake. I don’t know that he can maintain the disciple to become a successful selectively aggressive hitter. But what these 200 PA’s have shown me is that I now don’t know that he can not become a successful selectively aggressive hitter.

          1. chrisfchi

            Looked at his pitch numbers. 50%,for fastball and really low numbers on.breaking/offspeed pitches. Until he can consistently hit breaking or off speed pitches, he is not a ligit MLB starter

            1. TOOT

              Bah. Humbug. The guy is good.

            2. chrisfchi

              Read wrong stat. He’s seen fastballs 50% of the time. Still, don’t believe he’s legit until he gets more play time, and can constantly hit something besides fastballs.(which again he’s seen 50% of the time this season.)

              1. TOOT

                Hey bro. The dude is hitting .309 right now. Only dipped under .300 for a couple days since he was brought up to the BIGS. What more do you want? I would be hard pressed to come up with a guy that came up with the Cubs as a rookie, within the Cubs Org., with those kinds of numbers.

              2. jt

                “Still, don’t believe he’s legit until he gets more play time, and can constantly hit something besides fastballs”
                –chrisfchi
                I haven’t looked at those numbers but I’d agree with that thought process.

                1. TOOT

                  Exactly! Which brings me to my next point. Why is Sveum not playing him every day. Do the Cubs know they have a ace in their hand, or is Sveum mentally challenged?

                2. chrisfchi

                  Because this guy is DeRosa 2.0. He’s not going to hit .300 every season. My point is hes been up here for what 45 games max? I can’t get behind a guy who has less than 1/2 an MLB season under his belt. Who knows next year, if he breaks camp with the big team, maybe ill eat my words. Right now, I’m not gonna get on the lake boat.

                  1. SenorGato

                    If Lake is another DeRosa, hes probably not, then he’d be an upgrade offensively at 2B over Barney without killing you on defense. Unfortunately no one is even sure he can handle 3B let alone 2B.

                3. chrisfchi

                  50% fastballs pitched to him, any guy that can make it to the bigs should put up decient numbers if he sees fastballs half the time he’s at the plate.

                  1. TOOT

                    Really? I played ball.

        3. Blublud

          Cool. That are the numbers, but I’m lost on the meaning.

          Lakes BABIP is unsustainable. There is no argueing that. But, I feel he can decrease his SO, develop more power and still be similar to the kind of hitter he is now. His BA may drop, causing his OBP to drop (if his BB rate doesn’t increase) but if his slugging % increases, he’ll be just fine.

          1. Blublud

            Those are the numbers

          2. Jason P

            Long term, I think he’ll be a .270-.280 15 home run guy, which is about what he did in double A last year. With a lack of walks, those probably aren’t numbers you want out of your starter even in CF unless he can play above average defense.

            I still think he’s a super-utility first guy off the bench long term, but that’s not a bad thing — every team could use guys like that. And I think he’s certainly earned a chance to start in 2014.

          3. jt

            Castro puts a pitch on or just off the outside corner and at the knees in play. He has some success in doing so but it is not high % swing. Pedroia often fouls that pitch off. PD’s career OBP is 0.322 SLG is 0.453 and those of Castro are OBP 0.369 and SLG 0.404.
            They are both aggressive. They both can hit “their” pitch. But spoiling more pitcher’s pitches means that PD sees more hitters pitches.
            Guys like Berkman and Brett could do that and can sustain a high BAbip. Lake has shown he can hit “his” pitch. But, and this is a very big but, he has not shown that he can force the pitcher to give in and throw in his zone.
            Many are called to try and many try to answer but only the best can get it done.

            1. jt

              that is to say Castro’s career OBP is 0.322 and PD’s is 0.369
              I really need an eraser on my pencil.

  12. Bill

    Yep, it’s certainly enough PA’s to conclude that Junior Lake should be one of the Opening Day starters. That is, of course, unless Theo is going to go on a spending spree to bring in Choo and Ellsbury. Which isn’t going to happen.

    Does this mean Lake can’t flop next year? Nope, he can and if he does you look for other options. For now though, he’s your best option.

    1. Blublud

      Amen.

  13. CubFan Paul

    I drink too much, I thought Rizzo had the first hit.

    1. Lou Brown

      I think Vogelbach may not be as blocked as some seemed to think he was.

  14. Die hard

    If next yr is going to be another of a throw away year then do it with at least 5 rookies so as to give them playing time without pressure of winning but change the mgr– yeesh!

    1. ClevelandCubsFan

      I’d bet you’ll see Sveum in a Cubs uniform next year. I don’t thinks change until 2015. Even then I think they might give him a fair shake at working with a real roster.

      1. Blublud

        I bet you will see Sveum next year also, but I doubt you see him after next year. 2014 will be the last year he ever manages in the bigs. He may go down as the worse manager ever in terms of record. I don’t know the worse % but he has to be close.

        1. ClevelandCubsFan

          Really?

          1. ClevelandCubsFan

            Let me clarify that. You didn’t bother to look up the list of records to see where he falls? Also, you’re going to judge a manager on the basis of a win-loss record with teams significantly composed of reclamation projects, AAAA guys, and fringe role guys? Kinda hard to give a guy no tools and expect him to perform well.

            Actually, that sounds like my old boss…..

            1. hansman1982

              Man, if the Cubs extend Sveum, I am going to love watching heads explode.

              1. Blublud

                I think you or I have a better chance to be the manager in 2015.

                1. 70'scub

                  Why?

              2. ClevelandCubsFan

                I just said they’ll give him a fair shake. I wouldn’t guarantee he’ll be around. But I think Dale comes back next year and…unless there is regression… they’ll deliberate on bringing him back.

                1. Blublud

                  I don’t think they’ll even think about it. I think they hand pick they manager to go through this losing period, and after next year, they will no longer need Sveum. He has overseen more regression in players the progression. That bigger then the winning and losing.

            2. Blublud

              Dale has a .400 win percentage as a manager, which from my light research, qualifies as easily top 10 worst in MLB history, of all managers with at least 300 games managed.

              1. Drew7

                .407, actually – good for 16th worst, but also not a very long track record compared to others around him.

              2. Brains

                I think the more likely conclusion is that Theo has run one of the 1- worst organizations in the history of baseball, with poor Sveum at the help of a AA team pretending to be a big market franchise.

                1. AlwaysNextYear

                  I think your a complete joke.

        2. 70'scub

          Your wrong!

  15. N.J. Riv

    The Cubs played today?

    1. William

      I watched the Bears thrilling comeback against the Vikings instead! :-)

      1. N.J. Riv

        Same here, I actually had no idea until after the Bears game finished and then received an ESPN alert saying the had Cubs lost.

  16. TOOT

    “Lakes BABIP is unsustainable”

    I keep hearing this. What is this based on. Saber stats don’t do it for me. The guy comes thru again and again, there is no doubting that. When is the organization just gonna back to basics?

    1. Jason P

      What are “the basics” exactly? Using 200 at bats as your entire basis for personnel decisions this offseason?

      Even if you don’t trust sabermetrics and BABIP — and I’m not a huge fan of BABIP myself because it’s very easily misinterpreted — think of it from a practical perspective. Lake swings way too hard, is too pull happy, and strikes out too much to be a .310 hitter forever.

      1. TOOT

        Everybody was doubting him before he got called up. Everybody is still doubting him even though he is hitting .309. I don’t get it. I don’t buy into the “he has to regress” thing. What if he “progress’?” Saber stats worst nightmare?

        1. MichiganGoat

          If you find me one player that has a BABIP of .380 that progresses I will shut up. The fact is he will not maintain this BABIP over 600 PA at best he could have a .350 BABIP but then he’d be a true MVP candidate. He’s not. I hope he becomes useful and can develop into sustainable 3-4 WAR player but lets not crown him until he has more than 200 AB. Right now there are two story lines with Lake 1-he’s a baseball deity 2-he won’t sustain this and might be a useful bench/fringe starter next year. Which one is more realistic?

          1. cubsfanforever

            you seem to be a genius

          2. Lou Brown

            Lakes career BABIP in the minors is around .350. I like the advanced stats, but they miss things. Lake’s ability to get on via the bunt, and the speed he shows, places intense pressure on the infield. They can’t cheat bunt, because he can hit it hard also, unlike Campana. That part of his game has translated at the MLB level, so I wouldn’t be surprised for him to keep his BABIP around his career numbers .approx. 330 – .370.

          3. jh03

            One player who was able to progress with a .380 BABIP? Mike Trout had a .383 last year, and has had a .450 in the second half this year (.359 in the first half, what a slacker).

            So, clearly, Junior Lake is the next Mike Trout. Duh, goat.

          4. jt

            “The fact is he will not maintain this BABIP over 600 PA at best he could have a .350 BABIP”
            –MG
            What would it take for Lake to be productive over a 650 PA season in CF?
            Let us say and OPS of 0.750 and he learns to play to a high level of defense
            650 PA’s * .20 = 130 PA’s K result
            650 PA’s * 0.75 = 49 PA’s BB result
            650 PA’s = 2 PA’s HBP results
            650 PA’s = 20 HR result
            650 – 2 – 49 -130 – 20 = 201 PA’s ball not in play
            650 -201 = 449 PA’s ball in play
            650 0.340 OBP = 221 reach safely PA’s to get a 0.340 OBP
            221 – 71 = 150 PA’s resulting with a hit for a 0.340 OBP
            150/449 = 0.334 BAbip needed for a 0.340 OBP for
            a 20% K rate and a 0.75 BB rate.
            So, if Lake can lower his K rate 3.4% and raise his BB rate 2.9% he could allow his OBP to drop 10 points to 0.340, his SLG to drop 56 points to 0.410 and his BAbip to drop 54 points to 0.334 to become a useful offensive CF’er with an OPS of 0.750
            If he continues to smack strikes for hits pitchers will more often work off the plate. If he continues not to chase those pitches off the plate his BB rate could easily rise to his AA mark of around 7.5%.
            Getting the K rate down may be harder.
            The question is: can Lake, with the skill set he has shown, be an offensively productive CF’er?
            While it is not a slam dunk, I don’t see anything that emphatically states that that is not going to happen

            1. jt

              should be 650 PA season
              where is that damn eraser?

            2. MichiganGoat

              I never said he couldn’t or won’t be a useful member of the 25 man roster only that this production will not maintain and he is not Mike Trout 2.0. He could be LaHair 2.0 before being anything like Trout. There is an in between Lake being a MVP and Lake being bust.

              1. jt

                “Right now there are two story lines with Lake 1-he’s a baseball deity 2-he won’t sustain this and might be a useful bench/fringe starter next year. Which one is more realistic?”
                –MG
                I see a guy who seems anxious. But I see a guy who lays off those sliders Soriano used to chase. I see a guy chasing pitches close to the inside corner; close to the outside corner; at the knees and just above the navel. But I see a guy making hard contact on those pitches.
                There are more than a few guys who can do that sort of thing in spurts. There are only a few who can keep it up over an extended period.
                Lake has been a 0.330 – 0.340 BAbip once he acclimated to a level in the minors. That is not to say he will be at the MLB level. But there has been nothing to show that he wont be one of those guys either. If he does get to that level then he only needs a 0.400 – 0.410 SLG to be a useful offensive CF’er. That is not to say he will automatically become a useful defensive CF’er. Again, that is not to say he can maintain that high of a BAbip (0.334). But there is a chance that he could become more than an average starting MLB CF’er which far exceeds useful bench/fringe starter.

                1. MichiganGoat

                  I’m not sure what you are getting at here a .400 SLG would not match a .350 BABIP unless he becomes a singles hitter. I’m not arguing against him having starter potential hence the fringe aspect of my arguement. I hope he can turn into a .750 OPS guy but 200 AB is not enough to declare him a guaranteed starter status. There have been too many people saying his MiLB BABIP will match his MLB BABIP which I don’t see happening. If everyone thought his MiLB BABIP would carry to the MLB he would have been discussed among the Big 4. He has not nobody expected this of him- yet after 200 AB people are ready to label him out starting CF. I’m just not sold, hope I’m wrong.

                  1. jt

                    I’m just sayin’ that he has often been a BAbip guy of above 0.350 in the minors. So a BAbip of 0.334 in The Show is not out of the question. At attainable K and BB rates that could easily lead to a OBP of 0.340. He has also been a guy with a SLG of above 0.450. Shave 50 points off for The Show and a 0.400 SLG is not out of the question.
                    A 0.340 OBP + 0.400 SLG would yield a CF’er with a 0.740 OPS. 2013 NL CF’er avg is now at 0.722.

    2. another JP

      Doesn’t matter if Lake maintains his BABIP- when he hits for more power that’ll balance out the lower average and he’ll keep his OPS around .800… which I do believe is sustainable for him. Plus, Lake has a history of maintaining a high BABIP in the minors, so .340-.350 isn’t out of the question for him to put up in the majors.

      1. TOOT

        Another good point. He is going to hit with more power, and I believe, he will be delivering power to the gaps, which frankly, makes him scary.

      2. MichiganGoat

        Except .350 BABIP = MVP player, do we really believe he is a future MVP?

        1. ClevelandCubsFan

          One more point. Lake’s career minor league BABIP is about .344 (if I did my math right). That’s 40 points below what he’s doing now. Plus–although I don’t know the correlations between MiLB BABIP and MLB BABIP–I imagine MLB BABIP trends lower because of better defenses and pitchers who give up fewer LDs.

          Look, I don’t think anyone (Certainly not MANY) are DOWN on Lake. I think we’re all loving watching Lake play and the boost he’s been to this bad club. But I think a lot of us bristle when people make comments to the effect of Lake should be a guaranteed starter or he’s definitely a top notch player. There’s just too much wait and see for that, and too much in the stats that suggest it’s not going to be that simple. We’d love to see Lake be an All-Star, but we believe that he has a lot of improvement to do before he gets there, and we have some (I think, justified) skepticism of his ability to do that.

          This conversation started with a comment to the effect that with Lake having 200 PAs maybe the saber-minded folks should start believing. And that’s just not the way it works. 200 PAs is simply not a significant sample size–even a full season can be a poor sample size when compared to a career.

          1. MichiganGoat

            Cleveland. Great response that sums up this discussion perfectly.

        2. jt

          Welington Castillo now sports a 0.347 BAbip. The guy has been pretty good but not really MVP good.
          I wouldn’t mind having Michael Bourn for $0.5M/yr but certainly wouldn’t pay what he is now making for his .0337 BAbip and 0.342 SLG
          http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6387&position=OF
          *
          Again, if Lake’s ceiling is 0.334 BAbip, 0.340 OBP and 0.400 SLG and he learned defense he would be valuable. His minor lg numbers show that might be possible.
          At this point is he as likely to bust? Yeah probably! But the 200 PA’s has not decided on which side of the fence he is going to fall.
          His ceiling is not bench utility/fringe starter. Fact of the matter, that is looking more and more like the floor.

          1. MichiganGoat

            That’s a lots of if, the fringe starter is more likely his most likely outcome. His floor is much lower than that and his ceiling is still undetermined.

            1. jt

              ok, avg CF’er is a 0.722 OPS guy. That is Gerardo Parra for the past 2 years.
              Fringe/utility is lower than that. That is Ben Revere of Phil.
              I’m sayin’ he could be better than Gerardo Parra and most certainly will be better than Ben Revere.

              1. MichiganGoat

                Okay I’m not ready to say Lake is a bonafide starter… I hope I’m wrong.

  17. Adventurecizin' Justin

    After watching BJax & Vitters completely suck in their trial, you’d think Lake would get more love. He is doing what we hoped Jackson would have done…can’t some of you enjoy the talent? Sheesh

    1. Blublud

      Exactly. Thats my beef with the advanced metric guys. A guy goes 5 for 5 in a game, they can’t just enjoy it.

      This is how they would desribe it.

      “Well he hit a homer, but if it had been 2 ft shorter, it would have been an out. He had 2 singles on the ground, but with a better defense, they would have been outs. And both the doubles would have been outs if the CF had more range. He should have been 0-5 but he got lucky. The 0-5 reflects who he really is.”

      It actually sad when you can’t just sit back and enjoy the game.

      1. MichiganGoat

        We enjoy the game but since we didn’t play it at the level you did or don’t believe in stuff like “true Cub” I guess we’re just morons that hate baseball. Or maybe your over love of players ***cough Campana cough*** blurs your ability to objectively look at anything.

        1. Blublud

          This joke is getting old and more stupid by the day.

        2. Blublud

          And yes, I think it does make you a moron if you don’t have an attachment to the players in the uniform. I am a Cubs fan first, but the guys who wore the uniform are an extension of the team. The teams that have been on the field the last 2 years have driven me crazy because of the cycle of players. So when a player like Lake comes along, I choose to enjoy it as a player who came from the bottom of the system all the way to majors and is having success, no matter how long that success last. I don’t think Lake is a super star, but he has done more in his 200+ at-bats then just about any Cub not named Murphey all season.

          1. TWC

            “I think it does make you a moron if you don’t have an attachment to the players in the uniform.”

            … says the guy who HATED Luis Valbuena and Nate Schierholtz for *months*.

            1. C. Steadman

              and boom goes the dynamite

            2. Blublud

              Right, because I would rather have 2 guys who were already Cubs players.

              1. MichiganGoat

                True Cubs

      2. Luke

        You appear to be very confused on how the advanced metrics side sees a game.

        We actually enjoy individual games a great deal, because the stats from one game are essentially meaningless. Results from that small of a sample size are indistinguishable from the noise that results from random variance. We wouldn’t try to break down a single game in that manner because it is a single game. Anyone can have a great game – and we can probably tell you just how likely a given player is to have a great game based on career (or season (etc.)) numbers.

        We also don’t get worked up about individual 0 for 5 performances, because those are just as statistically meaningless.

        1. MichiganGoat

          ^^^THIS^^^

        2. Hansman1982
          1. hansman1982

            This was supposed to be:

            left pointing carrot – slow clap gif – right pointing carrot

  18. CubsFaninMS

    Let’s give credit where it is due. We can safely call Kevin Gregg’s season a “rebirth” for him. How many saves is it now? 31? On a team in last place with a very respectable ERA. He’s not light’s out as he was at the beginning of the season but so what? Look at the alternative. He’s been much better than Marmol was and addressed, at the time, the worst defect on our team: closer.

    1. jon

      pixie dust

    2. C. Steadman

      yeah, Kevin Gregg has been quitely one of the few bright spots on this team…early in the year was the blown save epidemic…it has now turned into the BA RISP flu and noone talks about BS as much thanks to Gregg…he isnt a stud closer, probably wont even close for the Cubs next year, but has been a solid 9th inning guy

      1. bbmoney

        Gregg has been great this year.

        I have almost no confidence he’ll be great next year. And not high confidence he’ll even be a useful MLB reliever.

        1. C. Steadman

          i agree…almost no way he can continue this success in his Age 36 season next year…he has been a savior in a way for the bullpen though

        2. cub2014

          Gregg has mid to high WHIP for the top
          closers this year. 2011 & 2012 his WHIP
          was real high. So if you get the 2008-09-10
          or 2013 Gregg he is at the league average
          on whip. But above average on save %. So
          who knows what we will get in 2014 but I
          think our options are pretty week otherwise.
          If the price is right bring him back.

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