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jacoby ellsbury[Seven posts today? Not unusual for this time of year, and an opportunity to remind you to follow BN on Twitter and like BN on Facebook so that you're getting your updates injected into your social sphere regularly.]

The following 13 players today were made qualifying offers of about $14.1 million for the 2014 season:

  • Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
  • Robinson Cano, Yankees
  • Shin-Soo Choo, Reds
  • Nelson Cruz, Rangers
  • Stephen Drew, Red Sox
  • Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
  • Curtis Granderson, Yankees
  • Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
  • Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees
  • Brian McCann, Braves
  • Kendrys Morales, Mariners
  • Mike Napoli, Red Sox
  • Ervin Santana, Royals

Now, should any of those players pass on the offer and choose to sign elsewhere, the signing team will lose a draft pick. The pick will depend on where the signing team’s first round draft pick falls. If it’s in the top 10 picks (11 this year because the 11th pick is the one the Blue Jays got for failing to sign their first rounder last year, and that pick cannot be lost – I believe), the team will lose its second round draft pick in order to sign the player. If the team’s first round pick falls outside of the top 10, however, then the signing team will lose its first round draft pick.

The 13 qualifying offers are about 50% more than last year, when just 9 players received an offer. Last year’s free agent class was arguably better, and we could be seeing additional fruits from the ever-escalating pay scale. That said, none of the offers is a surprise.

Among the players that could have received an offer, but didn’t (suggesting that their team believes they might have accepted, and are not worth $14.1 million on a one-year deal): Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bronson Arroyo, Tim Hudson, Bartolo Colon, Josh Johnson, and many more.

In addition to the obvious, the large number of qualifying offers – assuming the majority of players sign with new teams – means that the second round will be a little further from the first round in the Draft next year. This tends to impact all teams equally, but it does make the Cubs’ second round pick (the one they’d lose if they signed a qualified free agent) a little less valuable. Just sayin’.

Of the qualified free agents, the Cubs have been linked at various times (and with varying degrees of reliability) to Robinson Cano (not happening), Shin-Soo Choo (possible), Jacoby Ellsbury (very likely not happening), Curtis Granderson (conceivable), and Brian McCann (just don’t see it). I could see the Cubs exploring Cruz, Jimenez, and Santana, depending on how their markets shake out.

Players have until next Monday, November 11 to decide on whether to accept their qualifying offer. For most of these players, there’s no decision at all. For Cruz, Drew, Granderson, Kuroda, and Morales, there might be a little something to consider. If you want to keep tabs on other important dates, deadlines, and general scheduling stuff for the offseason, make sure to check out the road map I put together last week.

  • MichiganGoat

    Granderson and Cruz kinda surprise me and they might take the offer.

    • ssckelley

      I agree, Granderson would be lucky to get that much offered to him for 2 seasons.

    • Good Captain

      The Ranger fan site, Lonestarball seems to assume that Cruz will definitely test free agency although I think he may be hard pressed to gain a better annual deal for next year the he’d get w/ the QO.

  • Steve Ontiveros’ Mustache

    Does Salty not getting an offer (while not surprising) fuel any speculation that he might be a Cubs target?

    • jeff1969

      I think the White Sox are gonna get him.

      • Jimmy James

        They can have him, he throws like my mom

        • FFP

          Your Mom gets the yips?

  • http://www.survivingthalia.com Mike Taylor (no relation)

    I would say so. He does strike out a lot, though. 4/36 is as high as I would go.

  • Drew

    Do you lose a pick for each player you sign? In the very unlikely chance you signed 2?

    • BT

      Yes.

    • http://www.survivingthalia.com Mike Taylor (no relation)

      But our 1st round pick is protected and with 13 Qualifying Offers, the talent around our would-be 2nd Rd pick will be diminished greatly. So it would behoove the Cubs to go after a couple of these guys, because you’re not losing out on future top-notch talent in the draft.

      We kind of went “all in” on the International draft this year anyway, so we should probably go with a similar strategy with free agency. With the Samardzija rumors up again, I assume we’ll add talent to our rotation through trades, while relying on the FA market to add offense.

      • Pat

        I know I must be missing something, but how does the second round pick get significantly worse (diminished greatly)? Signing team loses a (usually) first round pick and the team that lost the player gets a supplemental pick. Isn’t that a net zero result? I realize a few of the signing teams will have protected picks, but a couple of those teams forfeited picks in the second would be before ours. So we’re likely talking a slot or two worse than if there were no qualifying offers made, right? As Brett said, it is something – but I wouldn’t consider it significant.

        • cub2014

          our second round pick could be 13 spots
          lower than before the qualifying offers

        • MichiganGoat

          Not to mention the success rate for draft picks greatly diminishes after the first round especially after the first ten picks.

        • OCCubFan

          I think Pat is correct. The Cubs second round pick drops only is a team with a protected pick after the Cubs (7 teams) signs a free agent. For the other 22 teams, both the supplemental pick received and the pick lost fall between the Cubs first and second round picks.

          • OCCubFan

            **only IF a team**

      • YourResidentJag

        It would behoove us to after Granderson.

    • J.L.

      Yes, you do. Happened with the Indians last offseason.

  • Moises Canchola

    Omg can you imagine if the cubs finally say you know what lets get a team ready to win in the next 2 years, so they can very well sign Tanaka, Johnson or Santana, maybe Arroyo depending if they can get Santana or Johnson to take incentive contracts, then get Cho, infante, Ellsbury or heck ill even take furcal. And if it doesmt work out you can trade most of the guys away for prospects (minus Tanaka and Ellsbury). I guess im asking for too much but with the prospects coming up and veterans like those it leads to winning ways ala Boston Red Sox

  • carklos

    Dont we have enough of this BOS/THEO stuff. The hell with all this crapola manager stuff,
    the only one that can make a difference is our own OZZIE…OZZIE….OZZIE. Come on Theo hire OZZIE and lets get on with the shoooooo.

    • BT

      no

      • frank

        Agreed–no.

    • ssckelley

      brenly……………………….brenly………………brenly………brenly

  • Rich H

    Well looky there only 2 small market teams and 2 midmarket teams offer qualifying offers while the Yanks and Bosox get 6 between them. Yep that new CBA certainly helped the little guy.

  • Andrew

    I think the increase in offers largely has to do with the lack of trade activity this year. I also think Beltran might accept his in addition to the names you mentioned. I’m guessing he likes where he is in St. Louis and wouldnt get too many years anyways.

    • Ivan the Terrible Cub Fan

      my thoughts exactly

    • Good Captain

      Perhaps but if he can snag a 3 year deal or minimum 2 year deal at around $15 M, that’d be a heck of a way for him to cap his financial interests resulting from his playing career as opposed to a single $14M. Furthermore, at that range, I think contenders will be the ones most interested.

      • Andrew

        ya i agree I think it’d be a close decision either way. might be tougher to get a multi year deal with compensation connected to him

  • Ron

    How many years in a row can a guy get a qualifying offer? For instance in the case of Beltran, could he get one this year and next year?

    • ssckelley

      Every year if he accepts them, in Beltrans case a qualifying offer may be a good thing. Making 14 million at his age is good.

      • Ron

        Thanks.

  • ssckelley

    Hard to imagine the World Series Champ could get as many as 4 first round picks in next Junes draft.

    • FFP

      Really good point. I think it shows what Theo means when he says take the long view and build a system to put up contenders year after year. Once you’re strong it may be easier to stay strong–you keep the line moving, managerially.

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