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jeff samardzija gatorade showerIn the run-up to the Trade Deadline, one of the most prominently featured Chicago Cubs names in trade rumors belonged to Jeff Samardzija. The prominence of that name had a bit more to do with his stature as a potential front-of-the-rotation arm than with the depth of the rumors, but the Cubs did legitimately seem to at least be listening.

The team most connected to Samardzija in those rumors? The Arizona Diamondbacks, from the whom the Cubs reportedly requested top pitching prospects Archie Bradley (who might be the top pitching prospect in the game) and Tyler Skaggs. As you’d expect, the talks died from there.

Fast-forward to this evening, and Buster Olney revives the rumors as literally as possible:

Samardzija’s value has likely declined a bit since those original talks, not solely because of his lackluster second half performance (his advanced stats remain strong), but also because he now comes with another half season less of control. He also comes with the knowledge that his hometown-ish team – which has publicly stated it would like to keep him with an extension – was unable to work out such an extension because of his demands. A buying team may have to accept that it is buying only two seasons of Samardzija.

That said, I’m sticking by my long-held position on trading Samardzija: two seasons is a long time, and anything can happen over those two years. That is especially true if you have breakout candidates like Samardzija on the team. So, against that backdrop, and peripherals/stuff/scouting/velocity/etc. that tell me Samardzija could be truly special, I don’t see any reason for the Cubs to part with Samardzija for anything short of top dollar. If it’s the Diamondbacks, that means Bradley-plus. An outrageous demand? Maybe. But it’s not like the Cubs would be dealing from a position of strength, and they’d have no reason to make the move short of picking up tip-top pitching prospect(s) in return. If the Diamondbacks wanted to try and overwhelm with Skaggs-Delgado-plus-plus, you listen. But Bradley is the steak.

We’ll have to keep a close eye on Samardzija trade rumors this offseason, because, if an extension isn’t coming, this front office will always consider converting shorter-term value to longer-term. I’d just want to see them get enough for this particular shorter-term value. Because he’s a very good one.

  • Professor Snarks

    Let’s be riverboat gamblers, and wait until the trade deadline.

    -If so, Brett will something for his blogothon.
    -If he pitches really well, a team on the edge of the playoffs may over pay.
    -If he pitches poorly, we’ll still get something.

    Why not?

  • Moises Canchola

    If the shark doesnt sign then trade him for only the best maybe the shark rizzo for bradley n goldschmit which would be very unlikely but trade only for ready now prospects and not guys who will take another 3 years to develop, which means nothing less than bradley.

    • OJ

      Ahhhhhhhhahahahahaha. This is officially insane.

  • Cheryl

    Shark isn’t going to sign an extension so he may be the first to go in a trade. But how about combining him with Castro for Price? Would that be a good deal for both clubs?

    • gocubs

      You would trade Shark and Castro because Shark won’t sign an extension for Price who also won’t sign an extension? You must be really down on Castro. I hope the FO doesn’t share your opinion.

  • trust me

    jeff and baez for Bradley skaggs delgado. GET IT DONE!!

  • Cheryl

    P.S.: There’d have tp be an extension for Price and a good throw-in maybe a catcher.

  • praying the cubs get ready to win

    I think Shark, AJax and Castro for Bradley, Skaggs and Delgado. We unload lots of salary so we have money for FA.

    • SalukiHawk

      So “praying”, you’re saying, hey, we’ll give you all of our down or low upside guys for your three top prospects, one of whom may be the best in baseball. Yeah, if I am AZ, I totally take that deal. Ahem. Here’s the deal folks: Jackson is done. Finished. He is no longer a legitimate prospect. He’s gotten worse, not better, and his confidence is zero. Perhaps we can unload him and a change of scenery may help, but these delusions that anyone will give us anything of value, or that he is a valuable piece, are just that.

      • JulioZuleta

        Samardzija/Castro gets you Bradley/Skaggs +, with the plus being something very decent. It will never happen, but it’s not a ridiculous trade at all.

  • The Dude Abides

    Samardjiza while no control should sign an extension before he allows this trade. He throws a lot of fly balls that would be finding the bleachers in Arizona.

    • ssckelley

      If the Cubs could sign him to an extension then they would not be interested in trading him.

  • Adventurecizin’ Justin

    No matter what, I hope the asking price on The Shark is ridiculously high because I’m in no hurry to deal him. I’ve enjoyed watching him evolve from a college wide receiver to a TOR major league SP. I think he can continue to evolve as the club evolves. I personally feel we haven’t seen the best of Samardzija.

    On the other hand, I wonder if he lacks the patience for this rebuild and wants to be shopped. I try not to condone his actions after the miscues… But he’s a competitor who watched paid professionals botch alot of outs that he busted his tail to induce! If he stays, I do hope he improves in this area!

    • cub2014

      shark has TOR stuff but quite frankly isnt
      very good. maybe someday it will click but
      when? probably right after the cubs trade
      him.

  • Rich H

    Even though I would love to get Bradley I think that a 3 team trade with Anaheim and a team like the Mets might be the best fit.

    • Patrick G

      Angels get shark, Mets get Trumbo+prospects,Cubs get Syndergaard+Prospects

      • Rich H

        That was kind of my thoughts as a baseline. Maybe Kendrick gets moved in the deal as well. You have to think that the Angels are interested in those kind of deals right now because their system is pretty weak.

        • MichiganGoat

          I’m sure the Angels would love that deal but if we were the Mets would we give up our top pitching prospect to get Trumbo? Ithe Cubs are also giving up a proven MLB starter for a prospect starter, I’d want more so those extra prospects better be very good and MLB close. I just see it as a very unbalanced trade.

  • Big Ace

    No Jeff was our ace when garza was hurt and he can be now that he is gone. If you look aside from wood he was the most consistant pitcher we had. Lets focus on the bullpen that is where we lost a lot of games in the end due to the bullpen. Lets just work with the rotation I think he did pretty good for his first year as a starter.

    • caryatid62

      It was his second full year as starter.

    • jt

      “Lets focus on the bullpen that is where we lost a lot of games in the end due to the bullpen.”
      –Big Ace
      The Cubs played 34% of their games in Aug/Sept. The Cubs pen tossed 38% of their IP in Aug/Sept (180 IP). So that is when they were worked the hardest. Yet, in Aug/Sept The Cubs pen had an ERA of just about 3.50 which was lg avg for NL RP’ing for the 2013 season.
      May Cubs bp ERA = 3.36 but only 69.6 IP
      April/June/July Cubs bp ERA’s = 4.23/5.21/4.52
      *
      Considering the amount of work, the bull pen did pretty good to maintain a lg avg ERA late in the year. If the 2014 relievers could pitch at those rates they would yield 540 IP along with their 3.50 ERA. That would allow the SP’ers to be on a short lease as they would only need to avg 5.6 IP per start.

      • MichiganGoat

        The bullpen would have looked even better if we hadn’t kept trying to build Marmol’s trade value.

        • jt

          Yeah, Marmol, Camp and a long line of tryouts.
          But the the same could be said on Rondon who improved in Aug and became lights out in Sept.
          I was thinking it might be alright to go with what they have in the pen. Arodys and Fuji will probably add depth late in the year and others who will start the year in Iowa would probably be ready post AS break. But after reading Luke’s post I took another look. It is going to be real hard to evaluate Strop, Rondon and the many others competing for spots. It might be a good thing to add an established vet presence out there.

    • DocPeterWimsey

      The other problem with the “focus on the bullpen” tactic is that how relievers did this year is a really poor predictor of how they will do next year. Most relievers (at least superficially) show huge oscillations from one year to the next in their traditional stats, and decent fluctuation in their HR, K & BB frequencies simply due to the very small sample sizes that a year of relief pitching provides. (This is a big part of why Mariano Rivera so freakish: he was good year-in and year-out.)

      One trait of playoff teams (albeit one of the “weaker” ones) is that they don’t use bullpens as much as other teams. The Cubs were 4th in fewest bullpen innings, but the three teams in front of them (LA, Cinci & Atlanta) all made post-season. The Cards were all of one inning behind the Cubs. Among NL playoff teams, only the Pirates used their bullpen heavily relative to other NL teams (#2 on the “wrong” end). In the AL, Detroit had by far the fewest bullpen innings (which was a good thing, as their bullpen was not good!), Boston had the 3rd fewest and Oakland the 5th fewest. (Comparisons between leagues are pretty pointless because of the DH, obviously.) Only Cleveland used their bullpen heavily relative to other AL teams.

      • jt

        “The other problem with the “focus on the bullpen” tactic ”
        –Doc
        Best case is to have the situation of The Reds or Tigers.
        However, BR lists 6 significant starters for Boston + Peavey(10) + Webster(7). In addition, RP’ers Acieve (6 ), Workman (3 ), Morales (1), Wright (1) began the game on the bump. That is 11 spot starts by guys used more in relief during the season.
        *
        St L had 8 guys with 8 or more starts and 2 others who combined for 4 starts. That also is a large extended rotation.
        *
        Texas had 7 pitchers with 13 or more starts and another 4 who combined for 15. Again, a huge extended rotation.
        *
        Oakland got a shot in the arm from Sonny Gray’s 10 starts and Bartolo Colon 190+ IP in 2013 but in 2012 their 94 wins was fueled by 512 IP by RP’ers.
        *
        The Cubs are going to have to go 162 games and as of now their 5th guy in the rotation is Rusin and the spot starter is Hendricks.

  • David

    I like the Jake Barrett guy – he was a closer for Ariz AA team last year. 6’3, 240 lbs.
    59 Ks & 12 BB in 52 innings. .197 BA against. Looks like a bas a$$, like to have him a part of a deal. Bradley, Barrett and Delgado for Shark and Junior.

    • Jim

      I’d be very upset if the Cubs traded Junior Lake, especially if he was just a throw in. I think he has a chance to be a very special player. I like that he can hit a homerun and then the next time up, try to bunt for a hit. He is a smart offensive player, and I thought his defense was pretty good for never playing the outfield before.

      • Chad

        If Lake with Samardzija gets that net return you do it. I like Lake as welll, not as much as you do, but I think he could be a good player, but nothing to write home about. If it nets you Bradley and Delgado I’m in on that one.

      • ssckelley

        I think the Cubs would be selling high on Lake. He is not a plus defender no matter where you put him and his bat only has value if he is a middle infielder, which he is not. Typically you want your outfielders to be either a top of the lineup guy, a slugger, or a plus defender and he is non of those.

  • MightyBear

    Trade him

  • Jason P

    Samardzija for Bradley and a couple lesser prospects would be high risk, but also very high reward. 6 years of control with ace potential is awfully intriguing. Especially if we were able to land Tanaka, who would essentially replace, if not be an upgrade to Samardzija, immediately.

    If I was a Diamondbacks fan, I can’t say I’d be for a trade like this.

  • X The Cubs Fan

    My trade proposal: Cubs trade: Jeff Samardzija, James Russel, Nate Schierholtz and Starlin Castro

    Diamondbacks trade: Archie Bradley, Michael Perez, David Holmberg and Jake Barrett

    Cardinals trade: Oscar Taveras, Tim Cooney and Tyrell Jenkins

    Cardinals get: Castro, Russel and Perez

    Diamondbacks get: Samardzija, Schierholtz and Cooney

    Cubs get: Bradley, Jenkins, Holmberg, Barrett and Taveras.

  • http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com Jason Powers

    For those interested, I did a FA analysis on Franklin Gutierrez:
    http://deepcenterfield.blogspot.com/2013/11/free-agent-analysis-cf-franklin.html

    Nate Schierholtz’s alter ego. ;)

    • jt

      fine job of bringing static charts to a meaningful life
      both analysis and presentation make it a worthwhile read

    • Blackhawks1963

      A healthy Franklin Guiterrez is a good ballplayer. And his defense is top shelf. I think there will be a number of teams interested in his services if he can prove he’s over his succession of injury issues.

  • Brains

    We’ll probably also trade Castro and Rizzo this offseason as a salary dump. And bring in whoever was put on the waiver line from Boston.

    • EvenBetterNewsV2.0

      Salary dump? Rizzo is going to make less than 1 million over what he made last year. I know it doesn’t fit what you are spewing, but thought I would troll your trolling.

      • Brains

        wait until i have my coffee, i’ll be incisive and garrulous for you guys again.

        • MichiganGoat

          Such a pathetic troll

          • Brains

            i’m starting to get the feeling like i’m actually, literally, michigangoat’s best friend in the entire (real) world.

            • MichiganGoat

              I know that reality is hard concept for you and responding to you is meaningless since pathetic troll is pathetic, but your chicken little bit and routine is beyond tiresome. The entire site becomes unbearable when your pathetic bullshit is being spewed around baiting everyone. I hope everyone else starts to see you for the pathetic soul that you are and joins me in telling you to STFU. You have no purpose you make die hard look good. I’m sorry life is so pathetic, it will get better now STFU you pathetic worthless troll.

              • ssckelley

                You two need to get a room.

                • SH

                  They need to stay in public, this is popcorn.gif

                  • ssckelley

                    I would rather see more of this on this site:

                    [img]http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/simgad/1353645716924301384[/img]

                    Than those 2 making out.

                    • Brains

                      now you guys are baiting me to stay in the game! i love the attention!

                      plus i’m right about this whole debacle.

                    • ssckelley

                      So all it takes is a girl with big boobs in a tight dress to keep you in the game?

                      Well, I guess it beats making out with a goat.

                    • Brains

                      isn’t that all it should take? respectfully depending on orientation, of course.

              • DReese

                Just ignore them MG.

    • ssckelley

      Neither player makes enough next season to be considered a salary dump. Very weak effort by you this morning, you should consider going back to bed.

      • Brains

        dump everything, garbage dump!

        • ssckelley

          Better get to the toilet, you are crapping all over yourself!

          • Brains

            there’s just something about this offseason’s further downward spiral (and its cheerleading contingent) so tragicomic that i’m starting to just give up. guys, this is an 8 year rebuild that’s entirely elective. it’s like buying a justin bieber album because you read on his website that he’s been called the new beatles.

            • Jimbotron

              Another justin bieber parallel: he has sucked since 2009

              • Cubbie Blues

                Correction, he has sucked since 1994.

                • ssckelley

                  [img]https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTdUiDiwtc9RddxMf8aB3h5jWRLPKMbnrvCUwk6-Tlm6KavAMJ9[/img]

                • Brains

                  very, very clever parallels

            • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

              If you decided to take some time for yourself, we’d all understand.

              • Brains

                hah actually maybe it’s time for a hiatus until after the offseason.

            • ssckelley

              Jeez, now I gotta respond to you seriously. Dammit, we were on a roll!

              Any rate, I can understand why the Cubs are considering trades for Samardzija. They have tried to sign him to an extension and I cannot blame them for not wanting to over pay for a player that (oh the stat geeks are going to love this) always seems to find ways to lose games. Samardzija appears to be insistent to either be paid like a TOR pitcher or test the free agent market. The Cubs know what they have in Samardzija, if they do decide to trade him the haul would be very good. A contending team would still be getting a middle of the rotation pitcher with a TOR arm that is under control for the next 2 years. If the haul from Arizona includes one, or both, of their top pitching prospects then I hope the Cubs are listening. Bottom line is they cannot let Samardzija walk in 2 years and get nothing in return for him.

              • Brains

                yep – but the returns are all gambles. it’s not a gamble to keep a good #3 quality pitcher. unless your goal isn’t to keep a #3 quality pitcher.

                • ssckelley

                  But I’d argue if the return is 2 top 25 prospects, both pitchers, that is risk worth taking. The odds of both pitchers flaming out are not very good and Skaggs slides into the rotation next season. If you let Samardzija play out his contract and let him walk via free agency all the Cubs get is a compensation pick, and the odds of that player making it are incredibly small.

                  • Brains

                    one last “for real” post before hiatus”

                    theo inherited a stacked team and successfully built around it. he had damon, millar, ramirez, varitek, and pedro martinez, among others. it’s like growing up in the rich suburbs and then being given a trust fund to start a business.

                    he did a great job continuing with a strong team, with some exceptions. was crawford overpriced? yes, but he’s also amazing when healthy.

                    the difference is that here he’s taking *years* to wipe the slate clean. beginning with scratch. he’s never done it before. he’s never won without help from previous administrations. and this approach, which was *not* the approach in boston, and is a social experiment, is clearly not working when it comes to developing a sound, healthy, mlb organzation. he can take a lot of credit for boston, and he should, but the conditions were favorable for him from the start. here he’s beginning by making conditions *unfavorable* for players and the fans, and i personally don’t believe he really has a plan at all. except for building a minor league system like everyone else. any logistical plan that i’ve ever examined includes building scaffolding at the base of the building, not at the construction site.

                    • ssckelley

                      I think Theo came here with a plan, my guess is he was thinking he would have a much bigger payroll budget than what he has been given. We don’t know what is going on behind the scenes with all that has happened (or not happened) with renovations not getting done and the Cubs getting additional revenue streams. The Cubs original plan was to have these renovations done by 2015, coincidently the same year the Cubs top prospects are supposed to be ready. I think Theo has had to change his game plan a little since he got here, and he is now having to make tough decisions on where and who he should invest that money into. If this is the case then I commend him for being able to make the adjustments.

                      Right now the Cubs are acting like a mid market team and I don’t think it is all Theo.

                    • EvenBetterNewsV2.0

                      Are you serious? When the minor league system is as bare as ours was when he came in what did you expect? Obviously our ML team wasn’t close to being anything better than a 70 win team as was constructed. How quick people forget that part. On top of that he no minor league talent to make the moves needed at the time to make a successful major league team. No team can build a successful team through Free Agency. There isn’t one team that has done that recently. The majority of good teams are built through trades and their minor league systems. Something we couldn’t do with what was there when he got here.

                    • hansman

                      I find it interesting that Theo gets lambasted for his first two years here and then gets limited credit for his time in Boston because of the situation he walked into.

                    • Brains

                      you find doorknobs interesting, hansman

                    • Randy

                      you are a COMPLETE idiot

                    • Brains

                      last thought – the problem, as i see it, guys, is that absolutely none of what you say about our minor league system was actually true. nor does it mean that you have to destroy the mlb system to build the minor league system. none of these conflations actually make sense. the most interesting thing about this site, which i’ll post about again after the offseason, is how readily you’re willing to believe what you’re told. it’s funny, sometimes frightening, and funny.

                      when the team finally starts building to win, they’ll start building to win. until then stop calling not building to win building to win. get it?

                    • Jamie

                      I’m fairly new to BN, and I must say, i was going to defend you last week for what appeared at initial glance to be cyber-dogpiling on you, but man…you are exhausting. Remember Henny Penny? Do you ever have a glass half full moment?

              • Mannylake

                I believe in the plan and think we are heading the right way, but to say that “No team can build a successful team through Free Agency” is a little extreme. The Indians are a great example of a team making a splash in free agency and running with it. I think we are a year or so away from making big moves in free agency, but once the plan comes together I’m sure we will start spending the dollars alongside that.

                • EvenBetterNewsV2.0

                  What’ not true Brains? Tell me, where was this hidden talent in our farm system when Theo took over he could trade? He couldn’t trade Baez due to it being less than a year since he signed his deal. Literally Vitters was a top 5 prospect in the system when Theo took over. So, just because you think it in your head doesn’t make it real. How could we build our team realistically without spending a ton in FA for players that aren’t that great and past their prime, as well as trades? How can you possibly do that? What I find funny about you, because you are spending your time doing the same is how you think you can snap your fingers and an organization is built. Every solid organization has some level of Minor Leagues, which we did not when Theo took over. What you fail to realize is you think everyone is suggesting we wait until these kids get brought up. Some will come up and some won’t. I hope we are using these kids to trade for talent. That is my preference, but to bury my head in the sand and pretend we had talent to acquire talent is just foolish when Theo came in. All we had was bad contracts, an owner with a bad deal on how he had to acquire the organization, and a bad farm. The base of any organization is the minor leagues. If you don’t believe me, ask any Cardinal fan.

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  • Ivy Walls

    I actually see Samardzija and Castro this off season and then signing a significant or two FA’s.

    I think they are the ones who will overpay, not the NYY for Tanaka because he is 24 (25), by trading Samardz and Castro they book at least $10M on the books and then they have the proceeds of the Soriano and other trades during the season, probably around $18M

    As for replacement the rotation will be better. At SS the Cubs short term and long term directions we know that are coming.

    • ssckelley

      I find it highly unlikely that the Cubs can put up a larger posting fee than the Yankees. Since the Yankees are trying to save money on payroll to reset the luxury tax penalty this leaves them a ton of money to spend on areas that do not impact the payroll. Since the posting fees do not count against the payroll I can see the Yankees getting insane on Tanaka’s posting fee.

  • Jim

    I don’t think the Cubs will be in on Tanaka. Sure they might make an “offer” but I think they will be seriously out priced. But if the Shark is traded for some good pitching prospects, I still don’t think our rotation looks too bad for 2014:

    Travis Wood (L)
    Edwin Jackson (R)
    Chris Rusin (L)
    Jake Arrieta (R)

    Competition between: Scott Baker, Arodys Vizcaino, Justin Grimm, Carlos Villanueva, and whomever else they bring into camp. I’d also expect Kyle Hendricks to be in the picture at some point in 2014.

    • Mannylake

      Completely agree. I have been a little confused why there hasn’t been more Hendricks talk as of late. What else do we need him to do in the minors to prove himself?

      • ssckelley

        I think Hendricks could pitch his way into consideration next season. I do wish he had a couple of extra mph on that fastball but it is tough to argue against how well he has performed up to this point.

        But it is going to be a long season for us Cub fans if Rusin ends up being the #3 starter.

    • Blackhawks1963

      Agreed. The bidding for Tanaka is going to be crazy severe. I don’t see the Cubs having the winning bid, which I’m perfectly fine with.

    • Mike F

      Couldn’t disagree more, more overly optimistic bs which is bad as the haters who whine at every turn. You have two MOR guys and projections and crap everywhere else. Rusin isn’t really even worth discussing. Arrieta is intriguing but a lot of projection.

      There hands are pretty well tied on Jeff, but let’s not lie to ourselves, the Cubs are not sitting flush with much if any TOR SP, so in trading Jeff and even Castro will be aiming on changing that, not more middle and bottom.

  • Jono

    What kind of prospect would the Cubs have to throw in with Samardzija to get Bradley? Would Samardzija yield Skaggs by himself?

    • hansman

      Samardzija should have enough value to get one of those by himself and if the D-Backs have a rough offseason, they might get desperate enough to unload both for Samardzija.

      • Jono

        If I come onto BN and see that the Cubs got Bradley for Samardzija straight up, I’m going to have one awesome F—ing day

        • ssckelley

          If that is all the Cubs got was a successful AA pitcher in return for Samardzija then I would be extremely disappointed. An appropriate return for 2 years of Samardzija should be more than what the Cubs got out of Garza, a 2 month rental.

          • Jono

            One of the best prospects in baseball for a middle rotation guy? Sign me up!

            • ssckelley

              KYLE, a little help please!!!!!

              Those incredible numbers he performs in DOUBLE A is not enough to give up an established middle of the rotation pitchers. I love prospects as well but Bradley has about a 1 in 3 chance of being a successful MLB pitcher. I need more than that.

              • Jono

                whoa there. Deep breaths

              • frank

                If Samardzija is even a little better than a 3, let’s say an average 2 (especially if the bullpen and offense improve even a little), then I think he’s worth more than one AA prospect–even if that prospect is considered one of the best in baseball. Add to that the flame-out rate of minor league pitchers, and I too, would be disappointed if that was all they got. They wanted Bradley and Skaggs–I say stick to your guns.

              • hansman

                If you are only going to get 1 prospect, I’d rather get Skaggs. Bradley’s stats don’t do much for me.

                • ssckelley

                  At least with Skaggs you are getting someone with some experience at the MLB level and could be in the rotation next year. But I still need more than that for 2 years of control for Samardzija who is in his prime.

                • Jono

                  Bradley is the higher ranking prospect, right? I looked up rankings from last offseason really quickly before making my original post, maybe I’m getting them mixed up or they flip flopped relative positions.

                  Either way, if the Cubs got more than what I suggested (a one for one), I’d be even happier. I’m not going to argue against getting a bigger return. Even if people expect to get more from Samardzija, I’d still be very happy to get a top pitching prospect for him.

                • YourResidentJag

                  Skaggs has problems with velocity. Also, scouts have noticed that his stuff seems to get hit harder in the majors vs minors, like his fastball. He’s giving up HRs at a rate that alarms me even with a small sample size. I say we wait to see cumulative offers for Shark before saying I want this or that from AZ.

          • SH

            I think we’re retconning a lot on that Garza deal. At the time, it was: an MLB bullpen arm with back-end starter upside, the Rangers’ Brett Jackson, a AAAA reliever, and an A-ball TINSTAAP with good stuff but a slight frame.

            Now, it is: an MLB bullpen arm with back-end starter upside, another Brett Jackson, a AAAA reliever, and an A-ball TINSTAPP with more widely-known good stuff and a slight frame.

            Odds are good that they, together, top Garza’s expected WAR to the Rangers when we traded him (let’s say 1.5). And there’s that chance Olt gets it back, Grimm “reaches his potential,” and Edwards beats the projections and is an MLB starter. But I can see a pretty reasonable scenario where those prayers don’t come true, and our aggregate haul hardly tops 1.5.

            All to say: that Garza deal wasn’t some amazing haul, predicting to us that a worse pitcher with more service time deserves one of the best prospects in baseball *and more*. It was a pretty reasonable exchange of expected values.

            • SH

              “More service time” is not what I meant. Rather, “more years of control.” Need coffee :)

            • ssckelley

              It was still an amazing haul for a 2 month rental and more than they would have gotten had Garza not gotten hurt the previous year. Olt was the centerpiece of the deal before and now a little more than a throw in. The problems Olt has is medical, unlike BJackson who simply cannot hit. There is a good chance one of those players ends up preforming up to his potential, I like my odds when there are 4 players involved. If the Cubs traded Samardzija straight up for a single prospect then I do not like those odds at all.

              Someone posted a link to a report last week on the success rate of top prospects being productive MLB players and I believe top 25 prospects was around 35%, which is what Bradley is. Even if Samardzija is no more than a #3 starter, I still need more of a return for him.

              • hansman

                If I were the Cubs, I’d start and end at Bradley + Skaggs. If they don’t buckle, well you still get Samardzija for 2 years.

                • Turn Two

                  Id take Bradley straight up and even throw in someone to make it happen.

                • ssckelley

                  I agree and I think that would be a good deal for both sides. If they don’t like it I am perfectly happy keeping Samardzija.

    • gocubs

      I think the Cubs need to get one of either Skaggs, Bradley, or Davidson plus Holmberg and a couple low level guys. If Arizona won’t commit to that you keep Shark.

  • Bill

    Yea i would trade Samardzija straight up for Bradley in a heart beat.

  • Bill

    Samardzija for Bradley Castro for Shelby Miller sign Tanaka and theirs your rotation for years to come.

  • Aaron

    Bill…your two trade ideas for young pitching and the Tanaka signing would definitely spice things up Cub Nation. These would be bold moves. It would make having a good team in 2014 more bearable, with a brighter future in 2015 and beyond!

  • Aaron

    Don’t give Samardzja an extension as part of the possible trade with the D-Backs. Let Shark play his two years on lower-end contract and see what he can do to EARN a big contract in free agency. The Cubs shouldn’t do him any special favors, given his attitude towards the organization about signing an extension. If I were his agent, I would be a bit concerned about rolling the dice for two more seasons on a less than market contract in the high desert.

    • Voice of Reason

      Why are you worried about doing special favors for him?

      I want to maximize our return when we trade him.

      Isn’t that what you want, too?

  • oswego chris

    Interersting thought…the idea is always to trade players before you get nothing in return…but with Samardzija, the value of his potential performance pitching for a contract in his walk year of 2015 might have more value than what you would get for him….

  • Senor Cub

    Not enamored with Shark or Castro or anyone else on this team. I also think Shark and Castro will not be with 2014 Cubs. Shark for Bradley straight up works for me. Castro straight up for Syndergaard also works for me. Cubs will not be competitive in 2014 or 2015. So keeping Shark makes no sense if he does not want to sign an extension. He will also be 30 yrs old then. Castro will still be piling up errors.

    • X the Cubs Fan

      Im not sure either one of those trades are smart for the Cubs, trading proven major league talent for one prospect each? Too much risk.

    • Blublud

      If that’s all you get for Shark is one prospect, even one as good as this, Theo should be fired.

      Also, I would expect more for Castro, with him having a lot of cost effective control, 2 all-star selections and still only being 23, but if the Mets are going to trade Syndergaard, they may be able to get a better SS.

  • YourResidentJag

    Listen to Shark talk about his contract status. On in a few minutes: http://tv.trb.com/extras/wgnam/player/listen.htm

  • Aaron

    Syndergaard is regarded as a potential top-of-the-rotation pitcher at the major league level. He is currently ranked as the Mets’ top prospect. I would love to see him on the Cubs.

    Option #1: Trade Junior Lake and Arismendy Alcantara?
    Option #2: Trade Starlin Castro

    • Blublud

      Option #1 would get us laughed at. Option #2 is possible, but I doubt the Mets would bite.

  • Gocubs

    Shark loves Chicago and wants to win. Knowing the Cubs aren’t going to compete in 2014, and most likely not in 2015, I’m speculating that he would request a trade and then resign with Chicago in two years? A move like that would allow him to win in the next two years and it would help the Cubs in their rebuild by getting some legit pitching prospects. He could then come back to his hometown team when they will be ready to compete.

    • BWA

      unlikely. Though if he is traded this offseason, it could happen two years down the road.

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