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masahiro tanakaBig news coming out of the MLB and NPB talks regarding their lapsed agreement to allow Japanese players to come over to the States – well, it’s big news in that it’s important, not that it’s a surprise. The two sides today announced a new agreement that will reportedly allow Japanese teams to make their players available to MLB teams for a posting price, which they will set, up to a maximum of $20 million. Should multiple teams offer that maximum price on a given player, each such team will be permitted to negotiate with the player. Only the team signing the player will actually be required to pay the posting price, thus, on the biggest stars, you will see a large number of MLB teams offering the posting fee.

More importantly in the near-term, a report out of Japan (via Dylan Hernandez) says that 25-year-old ace Masahiro Tanaka will be permitted to head to the United States under the new system. Take the report with a grain of salt, given the inherent translation issues and our own inability to determine its credibility, but it’s the first local report that explicitly says Tanaka will be posted.

Assuming he is made available – an assumption I’ve been making since day one – the Chicago Cubs are expected to be involved in the process. How “involved” is “involved” is a matter of some debate, though even today, Buster Olney reports that the buzz among executives around baseball is that the Cubs are “poised to try to strike big on Tanaka.”

Given that Tanaka is expected to command a nine-figure contract, the question ultimately will not be whether the Cubs want Tanaka – assuming their scouts like him, he certainly fits The Plan to a T – it is instead whether the necessary money will be there.

We’ll see.

  • Fastball

    Maybe Obama will sign a Cash for Clunkers Executive Order that pertains only to the Cubs. Cubs trade in a piece of crap pitcher and we get a shiny new one that wins 20 games a year. Everyone in the organization VP and Above qualifies for one deal before Xmas. Ricketts, Theo and Kenney. Brilliant. somebody tell Ricketts its coming direct from Obama and that it’s okay to go ahead and do it now.

  • North Side Irish

    Yankees payroll is at $172M with only 13 players under contract…if they’re serious about the resetting their tax (which some people question), they can only offer Tanaka about $15M a year and fill out the rest of their roster with minimum salaries. I think Seattle is a much more likely destination than the Yankees.

    I think he gets 5 years, $110M…plus the posting the fee.

    • cubfanincardinalland

      Subtract 26 million when A Rod suspension is upheld.

  • CubChymyst

    I’ll cheer at the end. Hopefully the FO goes heavy on him.

    • Blackhawks1963

      Going “heavy” on Tanaka won’t be enough for the Cubs. Our minuscule chances of getting him rest on Theo’s appetite to substantially overpay versus the more attractive teams in play. Can or will the Cubs substantially outbid NY or Seattle?

      • Jimmy James

        How much room do they have in 2014 budget? Would it be possible to do a heavily front loaded deal or would players union balk at this?

        • Pat

          The players union couldn’t care less as long as the money is guaranteed. That said, it doesn’t sound like they are in a financial position to heavily front load a deal. If anything I’d expect the opposite.

          • Jimmy James

            Just spit balling with the lack of movement and potential move of shark if they could heavily front load and then give more reasonable amounts for remaining years to get the deal done

  • Serious Cubs Fan

    Is a five year deal the max amount of years that a posted player can sign for? Could he sign for 6 or 7 years? Since Tanaka is only 25 it would make sense for him to sign a 5 year deal and set himself up for another big free agent deal when he’s 30, but was wondering if there was a max # of years posted players could sign for?

    • Pat

      No max, but considering he has never faced MLB hitters on a regular basis, it doubtful teams will want to extend the risk beyond what they have to.

      • Bwa

        Plus five years is ideal for tanaka because he hits free
        Agency at a very reasonable age of 31

  • Blackhawks1963

    Either the Yankees or the Mariners for $130 million plus the $20 million posting fee.

  • gridge

    Everyone here is greatly over estimating how much he will sign for. Yes there are a lot of teams in on him, but hes a HUGE risk. There is no proof he will succed in the mlb. Look at jose abreu, he was compared to miguel cabrera but signed for what 11mill per year. With the great upside these players posses, also comes great downside, and teams know this. Watch him sign for significantly less than most of you are predicting.

    • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

      I hope so but every team is desperate for a 25 year old star pitcher a couple teams might get I to a pissing match with each other. I never thought a team would give Cano 200M but they did.

      • Dr. Leroy Quackenbush

        I agree. Would you give a relative unknown pitcher like Tanaka 100M+ or Garza for 3 years at $51M? There are still some attractive options on the free agent market.

  • Gcheezpuff

    Anyway you look at this, Tanaka is no guarantee. He is very attractive based on scouting and age, but he is not MLB tested. Fukudome was a star in Japan but ended up being an average OF with some on base skill. The Cubs should definitely pursue, but I can’t imagine them paying much more than they offer Shark. I think somewhere around 5yr 15mil per seems the right value Vs risk… Maybe even high. Anything more and this looks really ugly if he is a bust or ends up less then a 2 or 3. Don’t forget about Fukudome and his 13 mil per year. Maybe this isn’t a big enough offer, but you gotta weigh the risk. Maybe you have to write in performance incentives? The talk of 20 per season is crazy talk for a guy who has never thrown a pitch in MLB.

    • EvenBetterNewsV2.0

      Ha, if they offer Tanaka what they offer Shark, there will be a lot more people laughing at the Cubs. Every deal looks stupid when it is a bust. You like to bring up Fukodome. That is fine. He was not 25. He is not a 1 or 2 type of a pitcher. Tanaka may very well be a bust, but a team trying to raise a level has to take that chance if the money is there. Hopefully it is. With as many teams on him as there will be, I would be shocked if it was under $100 million.

  • bbrave307

    Pay whatever it takes to get the guy.

    Our payroll for 2014 stands at about $75 mil. We can spend about $28 mil to get back to last years opening day. Plus we off loaded payroll last year at the trade deadline which we can use to get this guy.

    We will have plenty more to spend in 2015 when we don’t owe Soriano $13 mil, we get the extra $30-50 mil from the TV contract and the $20 mil from the jumbotron.

    To win a world series we need three top of the line pitchers. Here is one. Go get him.

    • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

      And that might be why we haven’t spent much money yet, saving it for Tanaka maybe we are planning for something like 4-5 years between 120-160M huge AAV but not too long.

    • Blackhawks1963

      Except that it’s not that simple. Most if not all clubs will submit the $20 million. Meaning Tanaka becomes a free agent for all intents and purposes and can sign with whoever he wants. Why would Tanaka come to the Cubs unless they blow away the contract offers of other teams? Nobody answers that. They just say go get him.

      • ClevelandCubsFan

        Terms. The Cubs might be in a position to backload heavily.

        • Blackhawks1963

          Except it’s not that simple. Some of you make it sound like Tanaka will just want to come to the Cubs. That we can be assumed to offer the best compensation package and the Yankees,Mariners and others are going to lie down in deference to the great and powerful Cubs.

          • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

            If we offer the most he comes to us, this is a huge moment for NBP players. This contract sets a new market and agents and advisors will want him to take the best offer.

            • cub2014

              I think its a negotiated contract not a blind bid.
              So I would assume you would get another swing
              at it.

              • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

                Yes it’s free agency for the teams that have the top bids up to 20M, which means a lot of teams will be in on him. So offers will come in and the agent will play them off each other just like free agency until one team offers the most and nobody else will beat it. It also helps set the market for incoming posted players and the union and agents will want him to take the biggest offer so future players have a huge ceiling to ask for.

          • cub2014

            blackhawk you nailed it, we may want Tanaka
            and have the money to get him but their might
            be 10 teams that are willing to spend more.

            In my opinion if it gets up to 25mil per year
            and 7 years then I would probably pass.
            I think the Cubs FO would as well and as much
            as we need him it would be the right decision.

        • ClevelandCubsFan

          Who would do 6/125 like this

          15 2014
          15 2015 – facilities plan coming together, new TV revs
          15 2016
          20 2017
          25 2018
          35 2019 – big TV revenues

      • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

        He will go to whoever pays him the most, period.

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

      Pretty sure you don’t need three top of the line pitchers to win a World Series. The Phillies thought you did, but that clearly didn’t work out very well.

  • Tony S.

    Fingers crossed.

  • oh well

    What would Shark think if Tanaka nets 20+mil a season? He is a proven starter. Tanaka has starred in Japan. If the front office wants a 5yr 55mil a year contract, but offers Tanaka 6@20mil per season? What’s that say? He isn’t a Cub at 20mil a yr.

    • ClevelandCubsFan

      Shark will think: man I wish I were a 25 year old free agent.

      Because he’s not. He’s 29 and under contract. And he can take 50-70 mil now or hope you looka lot better at 31 with a qualifying offer around your neck.

  • Cubbie in NC

    Theo has to be desperate to take attention away from his build the minors and make the MLB team terrible. We will only go after certain types of players mantra. This is his first chance to take the heat off of himself and prove he is trying to win. The Cubs will bid big on this one.

  • http://mccarronlegal.com jmc

    ok all signed in you want my blood type 2?

  • Diesel

    About the amount of money the cubs have to spend, does anyone think that maybe Ricketts is waiting for Theo to tell him it’s time to spend and not the other way around? I didn’t catch who said it it but on the MLB network they hinted the Cubs are sitting on the money until Theo is ready to spend big.

    • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

      I think there is truth to that, this might be Theo’s plan and budget more than Ricketts.

  • johnny chess Aka 2much2say

    There will be Months of negotiation’s. I can’t see him signing until mid late Feb. When is his Pro day?

    • North Side Irish

      I believe he only has 30 days from when he is posted to sign a deal.

      • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

        The 30 days was part of the unlimited blind bid system that has expired. I’m not sure what the timeline is with this new system, 30 days seem to short but if it is 30 days it will be a wild 30 days.

  • Baseball Writes

    Huge supporter of what Epstein et al are doing, but they HAVE to get Tanaka. If not, then Epstein has gone back on his word. This front office likes to throw the word “trust” around a lot, and if you went to the On Deck event you know what I mean – they said it a hundred times. I do trust them, but when Epstein says that if there were 25 year-old free agents available to sign he would sign them – that’s a big statement. I expect him to keep his word.

    When thinking about a contract for him, I think the best way to do it is to look at Darvish. He has been worth 4.8 WAR on average the last two years. Every evaluator and talking head I have heard assess him says he is good, but not quite as good as Darvish. If that’s the case, then maybe he is worth an average of 4 WAR/year. And his contract is 6/111, if you include the posting fee.

    Player salaries have gone up since then, especially SP. I think Dave Cameron said he estimated $6 mil/Win for this offseason. An average of 24 wins over 6 years and that gets you … a $144 mil contract. The Cubs may have to go up to $150, maybe, to outbid other teams. I know there is a lot of estimation in there, but that’s all we have right now.

    Okay. Do it. Stick to the plan, and keep your word, Theo Epstein.

    • DocPeterWimsey

      Theo either: 1) misspoke, 2) was misquoted or 3) is being quoted out of context. Nobody can simply assert that he will sign a good 25-year old free agent. The other 29 teams get a shot, too, and Theo (or Cashman or Daniels or Cherington or Beane, etc., etc.) has zero control over how much another team is going to offer. (I think that it’s safe to say that multiple teams will make the maximum bid.) Moreover, Theo has zero control over how Tanaka will choose given roughly comparable contracts, or how many dollars Tanaka places on joining a team that is good now.

      • Blackhawks1963

        Exactly. That said, I cannot see Tanaka wanting to come to the Cubs.

        • cub2014

          i think you said it wrong. the offer may not
          be enough to bring him to chicago. money
          will do the talking for tanaka

        • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

          It’s very simple, the biggest contract wins.

          • Blackhawks1963

            Disagree completely. Obviously the money will need to be there, but I think Tanaka significantly factors in where and who he plays for. Which puts the Cubs at a major disadvantage. The only way the Cubs win the money grab argument is if they blow away the next highest contract offer.

            • Isaac

              Why? Just because you have illogical hate for the FO office doesn’t mean he will.

              Great city.
              Young nucleus.
              Eager fan base.
              Gets to be the ace.
              Huge upward mobility with guys similar to his age.
              Highly Marketable in a large market.
              Potential legend status if he takes us to the Promised land.

              You are just dead wrong to assume he wouldn’t want to play here. If he has aspirations of making his own unique mark, this is exactly where he will want to play.

      • Werner

        So many fans think in absolutes and there is no absolute in angling for a free agent(s). It seems fairly clear the Cubs have been waiting this off season for a player like Tanaka. No doubt they aren’t the only ones. Seems more than silly for anybody to say a season/FO rests on getting/not getting any player.

      • Baseball_Writes

        It’s nine of these. I was there, plenty of people heard it. I wrote it down word-for-word.

        • Baseball_Writes

          *none of these*, obviously.

          • Baseball_Writes

            This is not working well on my phone. My point was, Theo said it, now is his chance to prove it. I don’t think it’s silly at all to ask that. I trust this front office, just as they have asked. But they will start losing my trust if they can’t stick to what they say.

            Of course I understand they don’t have control over Tanaka, as he is a free agent and can go wherever he chooses. So, if it means offering a lot more money than other teams to get him, so be it.

            • hansman

              He already busted on that “promise” with Darvish and Cespedes.

              You’re putting far too much weight into that statement.

              • Drewski

                I think suggesting Theo busted on Darvish and Cespedes is a reach. We did sign Soler and attacked the international market this year as many expected. Cespedes wanted a 4 year deal, made no sense for the Cubs to sign him for only rebuilding years. Rangers won the bidding, what were the Cubs supposed to do, spend 70 million to try to sign him? Darvish alone wouldn’t put the Cubs over the top and that type of money is needed to be allocated across the board when rebuilding.

                • hansman

                  If we had darvish this team would look pretty good. If we had him and cespedes it would look really good.

                  Literally, if anything had worked for us in the 2012 offseason, this team would look goos right now.

                  • RoscoeVillageFan

                    Lotta truth to that. But luckily the FO has been making a lot of other good decisions too IMO

                    • Commander bob

                      i couldnt imagine a front office making any better decision than theo and jeb.

                  • Isaac

                    Uh, it would? Their combined 6 (?) WAR would make this team look good? It’d still be about the kids, and we probably wouldn’t have either of Bryant or Almora. Not having those two guys has definitely been a long term boon.

                    • RoscoeVillageFan

                      It would still be about the kids but I’d trade any of our top prospects for darvish straight up. I think hansman’s point speaks to Theos comment re: Edwin Jackson signing that he thought we were a little closer than we actually are…hanging it all on position prospects is exciting but somewhat disingenuous to the make up of a good team. Keeping samardjza and getting tanaka could set the tone for the next 5 years.

                • hansman

                  Also, I said he busted on that “promise”, not that they were mistakes in not signing them. But thats a whole different discussion.

  • John

    Here’s hoping we land Tanaka and also bid and sign Maeda if he too gets posted. Two Japanese aces in their mid-twenties who come over and anchor your rotation for the next 5+ years would be great to go along with the kids coming up by 2016.
    -

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

      Maeda isn’t in the same category as Tanaka. He’d be a nice pickup, but his contract will be significantly lower and I don’t see him emerging as much more than No. 4 guy in a major league rotation.

      That said, he’s available for just cash and I’d like to have him in a Cubs uniform.

  • http://Bleachernation Lou Brock

    I do worry about the health of Tanakas arm. His out pitch all the years he has pitched successfully in Japan has been the splitter. This pitch is very tough on the elbow ligaments and not too many pitchers have had lengthy careers with the splitter as their out pitch. Definitely a consideration when making a long term contract offer.

  • AD

    I would not be surprised if all thirty teams bid the $20 million. It costs nothing if you lose and provides an opportunity to sneak in and grab Tanaka. Not knowing what the final contract will be, I would not be surprised to see a bunch of teams involved. Having said that, Cubs need to go all in!

  • Cub Lifer

    Tanaka to the Yankees remains a foregone conclusion. This is about to have a very highly anticlimactic ending.

  • Fastball

    The Cubs are going to have to significantly outbid a team like the Yankees. He doesn’t have to sign with the highest bidder. He can sign with whomever he wants. So if we are going to get him Theo is going to need to his best sales job and then Tanaka is going to look at all these bids which will probably all be in the same ballpark $$ wise. Then it will come down to who is going to win and who is going to always be a winner. Unfortunately our organization has no track record at all. The old system would be more in our favor. Win the posting fee and then you have exclusive negotiation rights. This is going to be a Goat Rodeo dealing with his agent. That agent better have a small contact center set up in office cuz his phones are going to get blown up til this thing is done. Maybe we should run the market up on this guy and then make a run at this other guy who is coming out from Japan. He is supposed to be the 2nd best pitcher over there. He would be less money and still a big upgrade for the Cubs.

    • Blackhawks1963

      Ding ding ding! Exactly right.

    • ClevelandCubsFan

      People are speculating he’s a #4 starter. Always good to have depth. I have no problem if we go after him. But he doesn’t give us much upgrade.

  • John W

    Cubs have limited control in the Tanaka derby. Most teams will submit the posting fee. Why wouldn’t they because the $20 m is house money. Then it becomes a question of who Tanaka and his agent want to strike a deal with. They may say let’s see everybody’s highest bid. Or they may just cut to the chase and contact the handful of teams he would consider playing for. There is a limit to what Ricketts and Epstein can do really.

    I’m reasonably optimistic Tanaka will entertain playing for the Cubs. Our chances of getting Tanaka are okay. Not great, because I would think he will want to play on the West Coast or New York or Boston where there are good teams playing in markets with significant Asian American populations.

    • ClevelandCubsFan

      I Don’t think Tanaka cares about other Asian Americans… just Japanese Americans. And only Honolulu has a significant % of them. (I looked it up.) Chicago is the 3rd largest city. I think people make to much of this coast thing.

  • Fastball

    Lou, I threw a forkball for a long long time. I never had a sore elbow from throwing that pitch. It’s the exact same throwing motion as a fastball. The breaking balls are what kills an elbow. If he throws a splitter or a forkball I am not worrying about his elbow. In fact the forkball is the best junk ball pitch you can teach a kid. It’s like a knuckleball, it takes a lot of practice to perfect but it is nasty. You back of the fork a bit and you got a splitter.

    • http://Bleachernation Lou Brock

      Tell you story to Bruce Sutter and see if he agrees.

  • Blublud

    Tanaka is a free agent. He is pretty much a FA with draft pick comp attached. A draft pick is valued at 15 mil, and his posting fee is 20 mil. That actually makes his value less than a FA with draft pick comp tied to them. Signing him will cost you 1.33 draft picks. It’s already been stated that he is not an ace. He is a number 2, and maybe only a number 3. So essentially, he’s a younger Jeff Samardzija. So there are people who believe that this guy will net more money then other #2 pitchers with draft pick comp, just simply because he is 25 and Japanese. THe age will play a small part in getting him more money, as he is less likely to decline over the life of a 5 or 6 year deal. So in other words, the last 2 or three years will still be valuable, there his overall value will not be driven down. But their still only going to pay him what they believe his value is. I have seen people suggest this guy will get 25 mil for 6 years. I seen MG suggest 4-5 for 120-160 million. 

    • Blublud

      He will not get nearly that much. 20 million is pushing it for the guy. I am willing to bet that he struggles to push 20 million, better yet 25, or something like 4/120 or the 5/160 that MG suggested. IT AINT HAPPENING.

      • Blackhawks1963

        You haven’t been paying attention to the extreme money contracts being handed out. And there are contenders desperate for pitching. The Yankees very badly need and want Tanaka. Seattle might go crazy spending again. Sure there is a risk that Tanaka is a bust. Will that temper the interest in Tanaka? I seriously doubt it.

        • Blublud

          I’m willing to be Mat Garza will be just as valuable, or they’ll at least be close. If people are desperate for pitching, why has no one lined up to offer him a 2 year 50+ million dollar, or even 4 years/100 million dollar contract. This guy is a good pitcher, but he is not the next coming of Cy Young. I can’t even project him as a future all-star. With slugging declining in baseball, I can argue he is not as valuable as Abreu, and is he getting 25 mil per year as a young FA. NO.

          • Blublud

            Meant Matt Garza will be just as valuable over the next 2 years.

      • Blublud

        The last three years of his deal will be worth 3 more WAR the a 29 year old in a similar FA position when you calculate typical decline. That might net him an extra 15-18 million over the life of the deal. So if a typical no 2/3 starter is worth 16-17 mil per, over 6 years max, that puts him at 6 yrs/120 in value max. subtract the posting fee, because he ultimately will be responsible for it, just like a FA with comp, and you are looking at a 6 yr 100 dollar deal for Tanaka.

  • Michael

    Is it really that smart to give this guy a huge contract when nobody really knows whether he will be able to make the transition to mlb.

    • EvenBetterNewsV2.0

      That is what you have an All Star scouting department for.

    • ClevelandCubsFan

      You could say some variation of that for just about every signing every team makes. I think after Matsui and Nomo and Dice-K and Fujikawa and Ichiro Susuki and Darvish and Fukudome….. teams have a pretty good idea the likelihood of a guy making the transition and how to weight that risk. Sure, he could be a flop. But I’m guessing the perceived chances of him being a flop will be reflected in the price.

      (There are some consideration with Tanaka, however, that will likely raise his price beyond his 5 x WAR $millions in my opinion, so it might be hard to parse all of this…)

  • Dustin S

    Although there is some mileage and scary pitch counts he’s been through, the fact that he’s still young enough to be around until the rebuild is on the upswing makes him exciting. It’s just hard to get too be too optimistic though knowing that probably 10 or 12 teams could make him offers. He was more interesting maybe 6 months or more ago when he seemed like a guy that might fly under the radar. But now if anything he might be overvalued.

  • Ghost of Brett Jackson

    I don’t think every team is going to post the 20 mil. Why would Billy Bean ect waste their time? No doubt a bunch will but 30? No way.

    • hansman

      With the new system the only time you’re wasting is the 30 seconds it takes to send the email to the mlb offices.

      • D.G.Lang

        I believe that the teams are required to post the entire amount first before being able to talk to the target. The team that gets him has the money forwarded to the team in Japan and the rest get their “security deposit” back.

        At least that was the way it was before the latest change. The reason is to eliminate the non-serious bidders.

  • ClevelandCubsFan

    What is the downside to bidding on Tanaka for a small-market team that’s not competitive and has no shot at getting him?

    On the surface, obviously you put in the $20m, talk to the guy, and see if luck doesn’t completely break your way. On the surface, no harm done. Right?

    But is there ANY other way to look at it? Put your name out there, waste Tanaka’s time having him do a workout, meet with you, etc. Maybe it hurts you in negotiations with other Japanese “free agents” the next time around. I’m not seeing a negative here, but I’m wondering if we’re missing something.

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

      You’re not missing anything. There is no downside.

  • Ghost of Brett Jackson

    These GMs know a ballpark the contract will fall. Why waste your time if it is WAY out of your league? Get lucky, no one is getting lucky. You are paying money, this is not the lottery.

  • Rebuilding

    I think there is a lot of underestimating of Tanaka going on here. There are Japanese stat translators that have been extremely accurate with other guys. The one I trust the most has him projected to be the 10th best pitcher in baseball – tied with David Price. His splitter is said to be potentially the most devastating pitch in MLB. We have also seen Dice-K and Darvish absolutely dominate after coming over with much the same arsenal. Not many pitchers in MLB throw the splitter and definitely not with the control he has. His fastball hits 95-96 when he needs it to. Scouts are saying he’s not quite as good as Darvish (even though he’s put up similar if not better stats than Darvish did in Japan), but that’s not a knock when you consider that before he got hurt last year Darvish was the most dominating pitcher in baseball

    • http://bleachernation.com woody

      I don’t doubt the guy is good. To put up number like that are unheard of. But with everybody and their brother posting to get him I still find it hard to believe that the Cubs put up the kind of cash to get him. But at least he isn’t tied to draft pick compensation. I mean they are holding fast with Samardzija and Tanaka is going to be in the neighborhood of 20 million a year or more. I would be more inclined to extend Shark and get the other Japanese guy (Maeda). Having a rotation of Shark, Wood, Jackson, Arietta and Maeda would be formidable.

  • John W.

    All the Cubs can do is submit the posting fee and see what happens. The Yankees are prone to irrational spending and have a big need for a quality starter. I think they stop at nothing to get Tanaka and screw their original goal to live under the luxury tax limit. If a bidding war happens then how high would Theo go? How high would Ricketts let him go? And what happens if the Japanese owned Mariners get involved with this as well?

    Tanaka is going to get a mind blowing contract where logic is thrown out the window. The Yankees aren’t afraid of monster contracts, even when they go bad. Seattle has the motivation of catering to all the Japanese Americans who live in Seattle. They did it once with Ichiro to great results. Do they stop going balls out with just Cano? Maybe not.

    So how high can Theo take this? Could he take it to $150 million and blow away all other bidders to ensure that Tanaka comes here no matter what? I don’t know the answer to that.

    • http://bleachernation.com woody

      Also there is no state income tax in Washington. That was a factor in the Cano signing. Cano saved million by signing with Seattle. I them and the Yankees go all out I just can’t see the cubs being stupid enough to take that kind of risk.

      • hansman

        It only sccounts for, Maybe, $1M a year.

        He went to Seatle because they gave him the contract he wanted

        • http://Bleachernation Lou Brock

          State income tax in New York is at a 13% rate for high income individuals 10 % over the life of a 200 million dollar deal is 20 million. Washington state income tax is ZERO. Better believe it made a difference in his signing that deal with Seatlle.

          • http://bleachernation.com woody

            Well said.

          • bbmoney

            I’m not going to dispute that it’s a factor, because it is.

            But I will add it’s not that much because he can deduct an extra 20M on his federal income tax return at 39.6% savings. So really if we say 10% state tax rate on 200M is 20M in extra state taxes, but ~8M less in federal taxes. So….12M tax savings in that scenario.

            • ClevelandCubsFan

              Another good point.

            • Spriggs

              Not really true, because state taxes are a tax preference item. They are subjected to the alternative minimum tax (you add them back!) and he would no doubt be subject to that.

          • Sandberg

            The players pay income tax in the state where the game is played, so it’s really only half the games. Whatever calculation needs to be divided in half (approximately).

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