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loud noisesI won’t use this post as a platform to reiterate my thoughts on the importance of providing a link (or at least a specific publication and author) when citing “reports”, and will instead rest on what my gut was telling me this morning. Suffice it to say, shortly after the New York Times published an article claiming “several Japanese newspapers” reported that the Rakuten Golden Eagles had decided not to post Masahiro Tanaka, I was completely unable to find said articles. The people of the Internet appear to have been similarly unable. And helpful BN’er Roger, who currently lives in Japan (and whose wife is Japanese), could find no such articles – only reports saying the things we already know: Rakuten wants to convince Tanaka to stay, and they haven’t decided what to do yet.

And then other media started to cast appropriate circumspection …

The conclusion?

Everything right now is a lot of bluster, without much behind it. No one knows anything. Tanaka might be posted. He might not. I stand by what I’ve said in the past: Tanaka wants to come to the States, and Rakuten loses $20 million by denying Tanaka his request. They have plenty of incentive to make it appear to the world as though they are doing everything possible to keep him … before ultimately letting him go.

But that’s just me offering my own thoughts. No reports and no sources there.

  • Mr. Gonzo

    The newly infamous “No Post” Dance

    [img]http://media.giphy.com/media/7Ji4a7m0HT9Zu/giphy.gif[/img]

    • http://www.eyecanseeinc.com Leo the Cub

      gotta love elephant dancing with little girl and cop

      • DarthHater

        It was a simpler age…

  • http://www.eyecanseeinc.com Leo the Cub

    I am looking forward to other topics other than Tanaka….I doubt Cubs will get Tanaka very much so in a way it is not that interesting to me…Thanks for a great forum though. I really enjoy it. I check it out each day.

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      Thank you for the kind words. Tanaka remains the most important story not only in the Cubs’ offseason (it’s debatable), but around baseball, generally. And that will have an impact on the Cubs either way. Fortunately there have been several other things to discuss today.

  • FarmerTanColin

    This is good…

    Brandon McCarthy ‏@BMcCarthy32 5h

    Man, this Tanaka situation has it all! Filing. Deadlines. Discussions…you name it, it’s got it. Nothing better than some procedural drama.

  • Chef Brian

    Well Rakuten is doing is due diligence, but at the end of the day 20 million is better than no million or even a negative since they will need to give Tanaka a hefty pay raise just to keep him happy. At the end of the day Tanaka may decide to wait out his free agency to be able to rake in more money and totally screw his team. Ultimately Rakuten will stop doing this St. Vitus Dance and collect their money.

  • http://bleachernation.com woody

    Read a piece at cubs den. Made a good point. Right now the ownership is offering Tanaka a significant pay raise to stay one more year. But what happens if Tanaka says no? Do they then post him? Do they not post him and make him play at his current salary? Or if he says no, do they give him the raise anyway? A real crazy situation. Just plays into the cubs hands if it drags out. If they don’t post him there will be a feeding frenzy for the Shark.

    • Eternal Pessimist

      I thought the owner already said he would post Tanaka if that is what Tanaka wanted.

      • Chrisfchi

        I thought I seen a tweet a week or two ago that said that.

  • Cubbie Tim

    Howard Stern is the man. Baba Bouey. Next to him Bret, you’re the man.

    Fred Norris

  • Edwin

    I still don’t think it’s a “$20 Million or nothing” situation for Rakuten. They lose the opportunity to get $20 Million for Tanaka, but by keeping Tanaka, they still get his services (whatever those are worth) for well under market value.

    I think at this point, it depends on how valuable Tanaka is to Rakuten.

    • TK

      In the short term, theyd lose out big money, speaking relative to “the short term.” But it could hurt them worse in the long run if they dont let him go. What Japanese kid will want to sign with them if they wont let their players pursue their dreams?

      • Edwin

        I don’t think that’s really an issue.

      • TK

        I think it is. How much experience you have with Japanese people?

        • Edwin

          Lots.

  • Mike S
  • Blackhawks1963

    Cubs have snowball’s chance in hell of getting Tanaka under the new posting rules, so whether he gets posted or not its IRRELEVANT. It would actually work to the favor of the Cubs if he spent another season in Japan and came over here next year.

    • Esteban

      The new posting system FAVORS the Cubs. Why would next year be any different than this year?

      • Local BleacherBum

        You have no clue how next years FA position for teams will look. Maybe the yanks have cash available maybe the dodgers have no cash available which means less competition to sign him. Maybe the cubs revenue streams are much stronger next offseason… No one knows

        • FarmerTanColin

          Can we all agree that if no one takes QO offer next season that the system needs changed? It seems completely onsided to me. I still don’t quite understand what was wrong with the old system that it required an overhaul.

          • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

            I suspect it will be changed when the negotiate the next deal in, I think, 2016. I don’t think anyone is too happy with how it is playing out right now.

            • FarmerTanColin

              Maybe just go back to the old system but tweak it. I don’t quite remember the details of the system but getting a bunch of extra second round picks doesn’t seem like its that advantageous given how difficult it is to just make the major leagues. Rays had like 4 first round picks once or something…oh no! They have a tiny payroll.

              Kendry Morales could literally be looking at not getting signed until after the draft. Doubt this happens but if it does, you cannot tell me that is good for baseball.

          • T-Bone

            Maybe the player should have the option to accept the QO at any point before the season begins

        • Esteban

          You absolutely know what the free agent and financial picture will look like for next year. Anyone can go on Cot’s Contracts and MLBTradrumors right now. You can find out which players will be free agents, who is likely to get a QO, who is likely to get extended, how much financial commitment each team has for this year and next year. It doesn’t matter WHEN he is posted.

      • T-Bone

        We need him to be posted this year. This guy will be our ONLY target this offseason. If what the management has said is true next year is the year we truly explore the free agent market. I don’t want our hands to be tied while we wait for the next will he or wont he fiasco. Imagine if just 2 of the possible free agent pitchers make it: scherzer, kershaw, lester, bailey. Plus there will be some possible bats out there to fill holes.

  • Cubbie Tim

    Let’s pass on this guy. Has any Japanese pitcher come to MLB & have a solid career. No. They all fail. Ichrio has been the only constant. Oh he’s an outfielder. Darvish is unproven. Dice-k, ibreau, & Wang all faltered. Waste of $. Overpay

    • caryatid62

      This post can’t be serious.

    • FullCountTommy

      Not full careers but Yu Darvish finished 2nd in the AL Cy young voting last year, Hisashi Iwakuma 3rd, and Koji Uehara 7th. Three of the ten best pitchers in the American League were Japanese.

      Hiroki Kuroda has had an excellent Major League career. Hideo Nomo had an awesome Major League career. Also, you only point out Ichiro, well what about the good career that Hideki Matsui had. Do all Japanese players work out, no, but to say that no Japanese pitchers have had successful big league careers is ignorant.

    • Local BleacherBum

      You don’t know what your talking about. There should be a smart comment and dumb comment button on this site. Needless to say this would be a dumb comment. But that’s the great thing about the 1st amendment, you can still voice your opinion.

  • Local BleacherBum

    Starlin Castro getting sued for $3.6million: So much for his mind being completely on baseball….

    http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/10166088/starlin-castro-chicago-cubs-files-countersuit-36-million-reportedly-seized-accounts

    • http://www.gravatar.com/avatar/653cc0c5f0eded621ab13b4f631de7da.png Cizzle

      That lawsuit sounds like crap. Granted I don’t know Dominican law, but you wouldn’t think a father could just give away 3% of his son’s earnings for the rest of his life.

  • Local BleacherBum

    Correction: *Starlin Castro has filed a countersuit, according to a source, after reportedly having $3.6 million seized from his bank accounts after the Chicago Cubs shortstop refused to pay three percent of his earnings to a Dominican Republic baseball school.*

    • Local BleacherBum

      Wow some shady business that goes down in the Dominican to get ballplayer to the bigs….

  • Randy

    Ricketts isn’t going to pony up the cash. Move on to the reclamation projects.

    • Local BleacherBum

      Whose a reclamation project? are you talking about Tanaka? He definitely isn’t

  • Ballgame

    First off, Mr. Gonzo, that dancing elephant video is epic! I just want this posting/not-posting of Tanaka to end already. I want to know if it’s even possible for the Cubs to explore signing him. I’ll be pissed if he is not posted. If he comes to the States and signs elsewhere then and least we’ll know where the Cubs stand on him (I know we prob won’t know specific details unless he’s signed). I’m still holding o ut hope the Cubs sign him…

    • baldtaxguy

      The Cubs could legitimately get outbid in try to sign him, no? So I am not sure what that (not getting Tanaka) would signal as far as “where the Cubs stand on him.” Whether outbidding is viewed as being “legitimate” will be based on your perspective, but there are other interested teams that have billionaire owners.

  • Pete LaCock

    It seems to me that, if Tanaka is posted next year instead of this year, it may increase our chances of signing him. The cash flow situation may become more clear and allow for a more aggressive offer.

  • John Quincy Adams

    1. Tanaka gets posted
    2. 20 plus teams submit the $20 million posting fee
    3. Tanaka and his agent get several teams engaged in a bidding war
    4. Tanaka picks between the Yankees, Rangers and Dodgers to play for
    5. Cubs waste their time being used as a leverage point to get the maximum dollars out of some other team Tanaka really wants to play for

    On what planet does Tanaka want to play for a rebuilding Cub team that is a virtual shoo-in to lose 95 plus games in 2014? The earliest we are reasonably competitive and exciting is 2016, and that’s if all the prospect chips fall in line. The McRicketts can’t or won’t spend money, the ballpark is a crumbling dump that can’t get renovated, and so on and so on and so on.

    Let this guy stay in Japan, or let him get posted and get this crap over with already. I don’t care. In fact, I hope his arm falls off pitching for the Yankees, Dodgers or Rangers and that his contract becomes a nightmare for his new team.

    • johnny chess Aka 2much2say

      Tanaka would be a legend if the Cubs won the World Series during his time there. That’s how you sell it.

      • Edwin

        He’d be a legend for any team that won the world series during his tenure.

        • johnny chess Aka 2much2say

          We’re talking about the Cubs winning, not even close to any other Team besides maybe the Astro’s a distant 2nd.

          • DocPeterWimsey

            What are you talking about? It’s been 4 YEARS since the Yanks won. There are New Yorkers who have started and completed high school without getting a holiday for a Jeter Admiration Parade.

            That’s like 4 centuries in Cub-fan years.

        • Local BleacherBum

          I have to agree with Johnny. Winning one with the Cubs would be more special. Just ask Theo. Winning one with the Cubs would be more special than with the Yankees, just bc the futility of Cubs history. If he’s on the Yankees he’s just another big time FA who was on the team. If he’s on the cubs and wins, he will go down as a special arm who led us there.

          There is no bias in this statement what so ever either. But money speaks louder then history of team. He will go where the money is not where it will be most special to win a world series.

          • johnny chess Aka 2much2say

            But… all things being equal The Cubs have a huge edge.

            • Local BleacherBum

              I don’t think the cubs any bit of a huge edge. He will sign where ever he gets the most money. period.

              • Eternal Pessimist

                I think Tanaka might put some weight on the easy flight back and forth to Japan. I think some west coast team might get a little bit of an edge from that.

            • Edwin

              Cubs fans do not love their team any more or any less than fans of other teams love thiers. There are all types of fans for every team.

              • Local BleacherBum

                Yes those Tampa Bay Rays fans are on the same level as Cubs fan….. You need you temperature checked son

                • Edwin

                  Are there more Cubs fans than Rays fans? Sure. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t hardcore Rays fans who care about their team just as much as people on this site care about the Cubs.

          • Edwin

            For a Cubs fan, obviously it would be special. But if he won the world series with the Mariners, I’m sure Mariners fans would grant just as much “legend status” as Cubs fans would if he won the world series with the Cubs.

            • Local BleacherBum

              I’m talking about on national level. Not just a local level. I think the national media anoint him the messiah for the cubs. If he won it with the cubs it would be seen as bigger deal with the cubs then with the Mariners. No matter how you try and frame the argument you will be wrong in my opinion.

              • Edwin

                If he’s the “star” player on the Cubs, of course the national media does that. It’s what they do for any team that makes the world series. They find players to promote as stars to try and drive public interest up. If he goes to Oakland and is the best pitcher on the staff, the national media would hail him as the pitcher who finally put Billy Bean’s A’s over the top.

              • Blackhawks1963

                Good grief. So the Cub sales pitch is “hey, we haven’t won in 105 years, have been the laughingstock of professional sports for decades and have branded the term Luvable Losers..if you come here you can be the hero who takes us to the promised land!!!”

                Pass the vomit bag. The delusion that infests some of our fan base boggles the friggin mind.

    • TWC

      “Let this guy stay in Japan, or let him get posted and get this crap over with already. I don’t care. In fact, I hope his arm falls off pitching … and that his contract becomes a nightmare …”

      You don’t care, but you hope for him to be a horrible failure.

      That’s mature. Thanks for the input.

  • CubsFaninAZ

    if Tanaka gets posted he’ll be a Cub. Then the Shark frenzy will begin. I like Shark and all but lets face it, he thinks he should get Ace pay, before Ace play. And if anything he’s only been a durable number 3. We already have a durable number 3 in EJ, We already have a potential Solid #2 in Wood. Now have a handful of very capable 4’s and 5’s, that at any moment can click and perform like 2’s and 3’s. What we don’t have is an Ace. Cubs will pony up for him not Shark. They’ll let someone else pony up for Sharks Potential, or let him be a veteran durable number 3 for 2 more years and possibly get past up by the likes of Arrieta, Visciano, Edwards, and newly acquired Wada, who if fully healthy might be a good pick up as far as teaming with Tanaka and making the MLB transition easier.

    • Blackhawks1963

      Why will he become a Cub if posted? Why? Explain to me why he picks the Cubs? Explain to me also the automatic presumption that the Cubs will offer the highest salary contract that blows away all the other suitors and makes it a no-brainer that he picks the Cubs? Explain to me how the Yankees, for example, are going to roll over and not match any salary offer the Cubs are willing to offer? Explain to me the compelling friggin sales pitch the Cubs use to actually get Tanaka that goes beyond this delusion that we are willing and able to pay the biggest salary package?

      • TWC

        Explain to me who you think the new Cubs manager will be.

        • Edwin

          Explain to me Schrödinger’s cat. I still don’t get it.

          • DarthHater

            [img]http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5347/9249140622_60e821274c_n.jpg[/img]

          • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

            If that’s true then you absolutely get it.

      • DarthHater

        ” Explain to me the compelling friggin sales pitch the Cubs use to actually get Tanaka”

        Masahiro, if you don’t sign with the Cubs, you’ll be receiving a visit from Al Capone:

        [img]http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/762891/al-capone-o.gif[/img]

      • johnny chess Aka 2much2say

        Maybe just maybe Fukidome was his idol growing up and maybe just maybe his entire life all he ever wanted was to be a Cub, to restore honor and fulfill the boyhood dreams he once had growing up in the slums of Tokyo and maybe just maybe it’s not about the money maybe it’s just about winning one for the Fuk man.

        • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

          Maybe he just wants to get paid and will take the most cash he is offered.

      • Cheese Chad

        He just said “DREET” and I’m about to freak out.

  • TK

    I saw multiple articles in English and Japanese that clearly quoted Rakuten’s FO as saying no decision yet, its a process, in talks internally, talking with Tanaka, etc . . . Basically all the stuff you’d hear from an MLB team until a deal was actually done.

    One thing is for sure . . . Tanaka is meeting with FO tonight (our tonight) and it is speculated that a decision will be announced within a reasonably short period of time thereafter.

    The reports from Mr. Belson of the NYT are erroneous. He was quoting the newspapers’ opinions and predictions as factual. None of it came from the Rakuten Eagles’ FO. Mr Belson skewered up big time. Credibility now = ZERO.

  • Nate Dawg

    Are we not allowed to sign Japanese amateurs and just completely avoid these shenanigans, like we do in Latin America? Or has the MLB agreed not to strip the NPB of all its talent?

    • DarthHater

      There’s a non-existent gentlemen’s agreement about that.

      • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

        Well, and the NPB is a great league – kids in Japan likely grow up dreaming about playing there, not in the States (for six years before they reach the show, if they do at all – in NPB, they can be in the bigs by 18/19/20).

        • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

          And if they succeed they can get PAID in the US without ever playing against the MLB level of competition. It’s a good gig.

        • DarthHater

          Does that explain why MLB teams don’t even try to sign Japanese amateurs?

          • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

            I think that’s pretty much the gist. Look at Otani – he was going to get a huge bonus to sign in the States, but he ended up preferring to sign with the team that drafted him first overall in NPB. I think that’s just where those kids generally want to play. It’s home, and it’s still a very big deal.

        • Nate Dawg

          Ok, I can see that kids in Japan probably grew up idolizing NPB players. And getting paid well when you’re that young makes sense. But I also think the top amateurs in any sport want to eventually try their game against the best in the world. That is the nature of competitive athletes.

    • C. Steadman

      this may be outdated(from 2009) but here is one example

      http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090929&content_id=7220222

      • C. Steadman

        http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/09/takumi-numata-signing-by-dodgers-now-in-doubt-profile-of-him-with-video/

        different example of a Japanese amateur signing with an MLB team instead

        • C. Steadman

          why isnt my picture working??

          • C. Steadman

            ah there it goes! :P

        • Kramden

          Weird.

          You have to be really hardcore to follow Chad Moriyama.

          Hats off to you, my friend!

          • C. Steadman

            my research into this topic lead me there

            • Kramden

              Still

              • DarthHater
                • Kramden

                  Yup….

                  When it comes to Japan….

                  Chad is your man!

                  • DarthHater

                    He’s actually got some interesting Tanaka analysis there.

                • DarthHater

                  Okay, I hadn’t read the whole thread above. Sorry for being dense, guys. :-p

  • johnny chess Aka 2much2say

    Including 50 mil post fee Matsusaka got 103 mil 6 years / Darvish 111 mil 6 years /
    Tanaka 20 mil plus 120 mil 7 years?

    • http://www.michigangoat.blogspot.com MichiganGoat

      Yeah I think that is what ever hopes it will take but Dice-K & Yu did not have multiple teams competing for his services. The total investment could quickly go past 150M, and with only 30 days to make a deal this could get crazy quick.

      • FarmerTanColin

        They should make it three days, all the bidding teams fly to a remote Japanese island. Weapons are given with a bag of supplies…wait no that’s the plot to Battle Royale.

  • johnny chess Aka 2much2say

    3 Ace’s per Decade you have to ask what they’re putting in their Chop Suey… I mean Sushi?

  • Stogie

    I’ll be happy if the Cubs get him, but I can’t picture it happening. Japanese pitchers rarely are more than recent in the big leagues. Nomo’s run lasted about 3 yes. Masato Yoshii was crap, so was Hideki Irabu. Matsuzaka has been here 7yrs, and is already with his 3rd organization. Tanaka might be pretty good, but I can’t imagine him being worth the big money it’s gonna take to land him. Japanese people might not like to hear it, but their brand of baseball is inferior to ours. Think about it: what do big leaguers do when they can no longer get a good contract here because their skills have waned? They go to Japan.

    • Jason P

      In general, people do understate the risk of signing a guy like Tanaka, but I think you’re overstating it. From 1995-2003 (excluding 97-98 when he spent over half his time on the DL) Nomo averaged 3.2 WAR. Not ace quality, but solid.

      I also thinking you’re nitpicking examples of guys who failed. Yu Darvish, Hisahshi Iwakuma, Huroki Kuroda, Koji Uehara all succeeded, to name a few.

      The general consensus is that you *are* going to have to overpay to get Tanaka, but as the only (or one of the only) guys on the market who fits the Cubs timeline, overpaying wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for a big market team currently projected to spend well less than they take in on payroll.

  • Charlie Brown

    Brett your a hack. I respect people from the comment section more than you they have way more insightful then I have ever seen you have. I constantly see you tooting your own horn by guessing a minor move you predicted well guess what any casual fan can predict that based on the needs of the team. What a joke oh and I can already see the dumb ban hammer comments coming so just save your time and stop sucking the dick of some hack that you want to empress cause you look absolutely stupid doing so .

    • waittilthisyear

      good grief

      • bbmoney

        I love this reply. This is outstanding.

        Well played.

    • BWA

      If it wasn’t for Brett, I wouldn’t have a clue which of these minor guys is available, and I certainly wouldn’t sort through them and find the ones that seem to fit for the cubs. Good work Brett.

    • Jason P

      Did you seriously just spell “impress” wrong? Like, really? The “e” key is not even close to the “i” key, so that excuse goes out the window.

      I don’t know what’s worse – the bile that this post contains or the 3rd grade writing style with which it’s written.

      • Jason P

        That is, unless of course you were calling Brett a female emperor. But somehow I just don’t think that fits with the rest of your post…

    • ClevelandCubsFan

      It takes very little talent or insight (read: none) to come on a site with open and free comments and trash a person who has put in lots of time and effort in an attempt to provide something for you amusement, entertainment, and enlightenment.

      It takes even less effort, apparently, then the effort necessary to go somewhere else, read something else.

      Why something you voluntarily chose to pursue, voluntarily chose to consume, and could voluntarily choose to ignore bothers you so, I don’t know.

      But I believe I can reasonably conclude this: You’re the hack, Charlie Brown

    • Mrs. Howell

      Wow! Criticizing someone severely while displaying the grammar skills of your average 7 year old. Run-on sentences. Your when you mean you’re. Then instead of than. Empress instead of impress. Really???!!!

      • ClevelandCubsFan

        Hey, don’t insult my college students now!

        • FarmerTanColin

          As a graduating senior in a sciencey major. I make these mistakes all the time, and no cares are given. This Charlie Brown though needs to lay off the boonesfarm when he jumps on his mothers laptop to troll a forum for his kicks.

          • TOOT

            “As a graduating senior in a sciencey major”

            What exactly is a sciencey major?

    • johnny chess Aka 2much2say

      TROLL ALERT

    • http://www.bleachernation.com Brett

      Thanks for reading, Charlie! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter, too!

      • Arrieta’sUncle

        Haha!

  • Mrs. Howell

    I must say you were most coherent when talking about sucking dick…glad you are clear about something.

  • Pingback: The Rakuten Golden Eagles May Make Masahiro Tanaka Posting Decision December 24 or 25 | Bleacher Nation | Chicago Cubs News, Rumors, and Commentary()

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