saying there's a chanceIt ain’t just for Tom Ricketts, Theo Epstein, and Rick Renteria anymore …

FanGraphs has released its league-wide ZiPS-related projection goodness, and you can see playoff odds here and team-by-team WAR breakdowns at each position here. They are fun reads. Among the interesting bits:

  • The Cubs have a 2.4% playoff chance, which is to say that, in about one out of every 40 seasons, you’d expect a team like the Cubs looks on paper to make the playoffs. It could happen!


  • … but not winning the World Series, apparently. Of accomplishing that, ZiPS gives the Cubs a nice, round 0.0% chance.
  • The Cubs are projected to win 71.0 games, fewer than every other team in baseball besides the Astros.
  • Most likely to make the playoffs? The Dodgers, at 80.9%. The Cardinals, naturally, are second at 74.6%.
  • Interestingly, ZiPS really doesn’t care for the Reds this year, giving them a 21.4% chance at the playoffs, less than eight other teams in the NL, including the Pirates (42.6%), Diamondbacks (27.1%), and Padres (24.7%).
  • In terms of positional WAR, the Cubs project to be above average at first base and … nowhere else. I’d argue that catcher should probably project to be a bit above average (ZiPS has it as just average), and I could see the Cubs’ bullpen winding up very good (even if I understand not projecting it that way). Otherwise. I’m not sure I can argue with too much of it.

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