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homer at the chalkboardAfter hitting a league-worst .218 with runners in scoring position last year, the Chicago Cubs have started the season 0 for 14 with runners on second and/or third base.

Generally held that hitting with runners in scoring position should generally mirror a team’s actual hitting true talent level, you wouldn’t expect a team to be disproportionately “bad” at hitting in that situation. In other words, you can chalk some of it up to bad luck.

And, if you did chalk this 0-14 start up to bad luck …

If the Cubs had a true talent level batting average with runners in scoring position of .200 (in other words, if you expected them to hit .200 with runners in scoring position over the course of the typical season with this roster), then the chances they’d go without a hit in their first 14 such situations is just 4.4%. That is to say, even if the Cubs really are HISTORICALLY awful at hitting with runners in scoring position, you still would overwhelmingly expect them to have a hit by now.

At the Cubs’ crappy .218 figure from last year? The chances of being hitless so far are just 3.2%.

If we bump the true talent batting average up to a more typical .250, the chances the Cubs would go 0-14 are just 1.8%.

Hooray Cubs luck!

UPDATE: With two more outs with runners in scoring position, that .250 figure is down to 1.0%. One time in 100. This Cubs team did it.

  • wkranz

    And give ammo to the anti-bunt squad.

  • Picklenose

    Okay, happy birthday for real MJ!

    • mjhurdle

      thanks!

  • wkranz

    No doubles d worked earlier and bit us there.

  • smackafilieyo

    This offense of ours is comical….but hey it’s the second game, haha….3 runs in 26 innings

  • willis

    That sucked.

  • Jason P

    It’s felt like the Cubs were going to lose this game for about 3 innings.

  • wkranz

    Tough start for Carlos…0-2, bummer.

  • Jon

    Villanueva is this years Shawn Camp

  • smackafilieyo

    Oh well… :(

  • mjhurdle

    bah, still a fun game to watch

  • willis

    Hard call there, to bring the infield or not there, but if you don’t, maybe have shot at a DP there. Would have been insanely tough to turn though.

    I hope tomorrow is rained out. I can’t take much more of this.

  • mjhurdle

    0-2 is 0-2, but i like how they have played in the first two games, except for the RISP of course

  • Picklenose

    sweet dreams all

  • willis

    I think maybe half way infield depth there. Would have given you a shot.

  • http://www.bleachernation.com Luke

    Over 600 replies on two posts. For a regular season game.

    It’s like we missed baseball season around here.

  • drew

    More people commented tonight than attended the White Sox game

    • mjhurdle

      lol!

  • Jason P

    Samardzija
    Hammel

    That’s the exhaustive list of Cub players who didn’t play in this game.

    • another JP

      Exhaustive is a good description. This has the makings of a very long year.

  • 5RunHomerun

    At least Bonifacio is on pace for one hell of a season.

    BTW, how dare RR play Valbuena over Olt? We would have easily won if The One and Only Savior (until Baez) TM had started at third tonight.

    • Jed Jam Band

      You wanted Joseph Smith to start at third?

    • 5RunHomerun

      Yeah, that was my shitty way of putting a trademark on that. It was really cool to see Bonifacio and Valbuena get on back-to-back a few times. If any of the other lefties could’ve chipped in, this one would have been over a lot sooner.

  • Required

    It’s like they are trying to not hit with men on base. Tomorrow should get rained out. Rest up fellas after this one.

  • 70’s Cub

    Nice defense Rizzo, coaching no doubles in left and pulling the infield in! Damn this guy RR is on a roll picking the ball up like Dale and Qball. Cubs start my prediction 7-19 out of it before May 1st.

  • TonyP

    Crap….

  • TommyK

    3 runs in 25 innings. What a dung heap of a baseball team.

    • SenorGato

      On the bright side they have only allowed 5 runs in 25…24 and whatever it is.

    • mjhurdle

      at least we are better than those crappy teams that have 1 run in 18 innings. i bet Red and Cardinal fans are going even more nuts than us…

  • Diehardthefirst

    Can’t believe MLB will allow the Yankees to twist in the wind thru May as they stir the martinis – wouldn’t put it past Bud to pressure Cubs into dealing some youngsters to help Yanks

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