saying there's a chanceThe Chicago Cubs lost both of their first two series, and stand at 2-4 on the year. Hardly an emphatic opening to the year, particularly for a team that was going to need enormous pleasant surprises in order to stay in the race past June.

How do the projection folks at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus see things for the Cubs after a week of play? Well, about how they saw them just before the season started.

At that time, BP saw the Cubs as a 73-win team, with playoff odds at 8.3%. Now, BP sees 74.5 wins (hooray!), but 6.7% playoff odds (boo!).

At that time, FanGraphs saw the Cubs as a 75-win team, with playoff odds at 3.3%. FanGraphs now sees the Cubs as a 73-win team (boo!), but with 4.1% playoff odds (hooray!).

So, all in all, not too much change. I think that’s probably what we should expect, given that the Cubs haven’t looked great, but could very easily be 3-3 or 4-2 right now, with a little more timely hitting.

An interesting aside that has developed in the early going in the NL Central: both BP and FanGraphs agree that the Brewers are more likely to make the playoffs than at least one non-Cubs NL Central opponent, and BP actually has them right up behind the Cardinals. After a 4-2 start, and some health, the Brewers have a 33.7% playoff chance, ahead of the Reds (27.4%) and Pirates (24.9%). FanGraphs loves the Pirates (48.5%), but has the Brewers (18.9%) just ahead of the Reds (16.5%).

I do think the Pirates and Reds have some issues, and the Brewers were probably always underrated, but … I find that all very surprising. But, hey, when you’re projected to get more than 8 wins out of just two outfielders (Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun), you can hide a lot of deficiencies.

  • PejaO42

    Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

    • Funn Dave

      What’s that from again?

    • JCubs79

      Well, the Germans didn’t bomb Pearl Harbor…so it never started.

      • DarthHater


    • Blackhawks1963

      The god damn Germans got nothin’ to do with it !

      …Sheriff Buford T. Justice

  • Funn Dave

    Release Barney, call up Baez and play Olt every day and our odds will magically raise to 99.99999999999999%. Then just bring back Tony C for that extra little nudge to 100%.

    • craigp

      You are speaking the truth!

  • another JP

    Take 2 of 3 against the Bucs and it’s not such a bad start to the season given the issues Cubs had in scoring runs for the first 5 games.

  • Jon

    I always though the Brewers were getting slept on a bit. With the return of Braun that lineup is pretty potent.

    • aaronb


      They also start a good MLB starter every time out (though no real ace). I thought Kendry Morales made a ton of sense for that team. Braun/Morales/Ramirez is a pretty darn good middle of an order. Especially in the NL.

    • D.G.Lang

      Braun was struggling with a thumb problem when he was suspended. He did not want surgery but preferred to just “rest” it in hopes it would improve.

      It seemed to get better but in truth he is having trouble gripping the bat and it is hurting again. He can’t quite tell how hard he is gripping the bat and that along with the sting at each contact is making the thumb worse again.

      There is the possibility that he might be forced to have the surgery anyway if his condition doesn’t improve.

  • Edwin

    At least their odds aren’t negative.

  • Cerambam

    I’ll tell you what, these off days feel about as long as the offseason

  • NorthSideIrish

    Baseball America ‏@BaseballAmerica 5m
    Minors Update: Ask BA: Is The Cubs’ Pitching Underrated? – In a recent conversation with a friend who lives near C…

    The most important and most depressing part of the article:

    “(Since 2004), here’s a complete list of homegrown starters the Cubs have added to the rotation to make 15 or more starts in a season: RHP Randy Wells (2002 38th-round pick), RHP Casey Coleman (2008 15th-round pick), RHP Jeff Samardzija (2006 fifth-round pick) and LHP Rich Hill (2002 4th-round pick).”

  • cubmig

    Soooo……..the season for the Cubs IS over……….damn. Here I thought the season was just beginning. Just-shows-to-go-ya’, being a Cubs fan is the shits. Stats rule. The projection is out. Forget about even thinking the Cubs have a ripple of a chance; and—- beware— any word to the contrary from the FO or anywhere else is anathema. Hope is dead. The goat’s shadow looms as heavy as ever.


    • Fishin Phil


      Grow a mullet, crack a Budweiser, watch the Cards.

      • NorthSideIrish

        You forgot buy faded jorts…

      • ssckelley

        If you are still wearing a mullet chances are good that a dime bag is involved.

      • FFP

        I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part.

      • cubmig

        LOL……the first two I can handle……but the third is turd and THAT will NEVA do!!!!!!! NEVA !!

  • Spoda17

    It’s hard to fall down when you are already on the ground…