Cubs Minor League Daily: Projecting Bryant

## Cubs Minor League Daily: Projecting Bryant

Kris Bryant has been destroying Double A. This is not news. He has had a ton of accolades poured on him over the past month, and when we look at his line for the month it is easy to see why. This guy has been hitting everything.

His line for May includes 29 games and about 125 trips to the plate. In that span he hit twelve home runs and put together a line of .407/.492/.806. He walked 17 times (13.5%) and struck out 32 times (25.4%). Kris Bryant had a truly fantastic month.

Bryant still has work to do in the minors and I am not yet suggesting he be promoted to Chicago right away. But, if he were in the majors, what might his line look like?

Translating minor league numbers into major league numbers is not an easy task. At the most basic level it consists of taking the minor league stat, multiplying it by some modifying factor, and reading off the answer. The problem, though, is figuring out that factor.

To play it safe I ran the numbers over a number of adjustment factors. The chart below contains Bryant’s Double A line so far this season followed those same numbers multiplied by a scaling factor of .9, .8, and .7. For the final line I calculated the adjustment factor for each of Giancarlo Stanton‘s slash line statistics between his second Double A season and his career major league numbers and applied those factors to Bryant’s current Double A numbers. Those factors are .8658 for AVG, .8145 for OBP, and .7462 for SLG.

Double A : .348 / .452 / .692
Factor .9: .313 / .407 / .623
Factor .8: .278 / .361 / .554
Factor .7: .244 / .316 / .484
Stanton #: .301 / .368 / .516

The worst of those lines, the Factor .7 one, still has an OPS of .800. The Stanton numbers are roughly in the middle of that spread, so I plugged them into the Simple WAR Calculator. As a right fielder with average defense, that line is good for a WAR of 4.2 over a full season.

Despite those projections I don’t think he is ready for the majors yet, but when he is I think he will eventually emerge as the Cubs’ number two hitter. [Brett: Well, assuming the Cubs are into lineup optimization by then.]

Scores From The Weekend

Iowa
Friday – Despite the weather the Cubs squeezed in this 6-4 win.
Saturday – A pitching battle turned into a 2-1 loss.
Sunday – More good Iowa pitching led to a 5-2 Iowa win.

Tennessee
Friday – A ninth inning rally went nowhere in this 5-1 loss.
Saturday – Good pitching couldn’t get it done as Tennessee lost 2-1.
Sunday – The Smokies led early but lost late. The final was 4-2.

Daytona
Friday – Daytona fell behind early, and that was pretty much it. They lost 7-2.
Saturday – A ninth inning rally came up short. The Cubs lost 4-2.
Sunday – And on Sunday they were shut out for a 6-0 final.

Kane County
Friday – A three run sixth led to a 4-1 win.
Saturday – The Cougars gave up an eighth inning rally and lost 5-3.
Sunday – In a game chock full of errors, Kane County won 2-0.

Performances of Note

• [Iowa] Christian Villanueva picked up 2 hits on both Friday and Sunday, and those hits included a pair of doubles and his 5th home run.
• [Iowa] Eric Jokisch pitched 6 quality innings on Sunday, allowing a run on 2 hits and striking out 5. Chris Rusin pitched 7 good innings on Saturday. His line included 2 runs on 4 hits with 5 strikeouts.
• [Iowa] Arismendy Alcantara homered twice on Friday and now has 7 on the season. He then struck out 5 times between Saturday and Sunday.
• [Iowa] After two more two strikeout performances, Blake Parker is up to 10 saves for Iowa.
• [Tennessee] Kris Bryant hit two more home runs this weekend and is up to 18 for the season.
• [Tennessee] Joel Pineiro allowed just a run on 3 hits over 7 innings on Saturday. He struck out a pair and walked no one.
• [Tennessee] Corey Black struck out another 6 in his 5.2 inning start on Sunday, but he also allowed 3 runs on 6 hits.
• [Daytona] Albert Almora doubled and finished with 2 hits on Saturday. On Sunday he walked.
• [Daytona] Jeimer Candelario doubled on Friday and has now hit safely in 3 straight. Over his last 10 games his OPS is at .754.
• [Daytona] Dan Vogelbach also doubled on Friday and has also hit safely in 3 straight. His OPS for his last 10 games is robust 1.088.
• [Kane County] Justin Amlung allowed 4 hits and struck out 8 over 5.2 on Sunday. Michael Wagner followed with 2 innings of one hit, two walk, 4 strike out ball. Tyler Bremer finished things off for his 5th save.
• [Kane County] Jacob Hannemann went cold in May, but he appears to be coming out of it. He collected 2 hits both Friday and Saturday and has multi-hit games in 3 of his last 5.
• [Kane County] Daury Torrez (5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 3 K) and James Pugliese (3 IP, 1 H, 5 K) combined on eight good innings on Friday. Tyler Bremer (1 H, 3 K) picked up a save in that one as well.
• [Kane County] Daniel Lockhart has hit safely in 4 straight and is up to a line of .316/.357/.395 over his last ten.

Other News

• Javier Baez left Sunday’s game early after being hit on or near the hand with a ball. He stole two bases and played in the field after being hit, though, so I suspect his removal is more precautionary than a sign of a serious problem.
• Through The Fence Baseball posted another excellent in depth look at the Cubs options at Number Four, and it is well worth a read. The two biggest takeaways, I think, regard Carlos Rodon and Nick Gordon. Dan Kirby is of the opinion that Rodon has a good chance to fall down to Number Four, and, in that scenario he would be the Cubs pick.
• If not, it looks Kirby (and many others) are leaning towards Nick Gordon. The money quote on Gordon is this: “They could get him for slightly under-slot and he also happens to be pretty damn good.” As I’ve stated before, I don’t like Gordon at slot at four. I do like him, however, as an under slot. I have no problems taking a flyer on a Gordon at four and using the savings (and it wouldn’t have to be a ton of savings – even half a million would go a long way) on a high ceiling pitching prospect who falls into the second. And if the Cubs could manage to trade for a competitive balance pick? Even better.
• Meanwhile, over at Cubs Den, a number of smart people got together to project the first round and break down the Cubs options. Aaron Nola joins Gordon as the favorite for the pick (though more recent info seems to indicate that Nola may be out of consideration).
• That all assumes that neither Houston nor Miami take a hitter, though, and there is still plenty of buzz around the Marlins and Jackson. With just a few day to go before the draft, it looks like a consensus may be forming around the Cubs taking Rodon or Aiken if available, and Gordon otherwise. But there is plenty of time for that to change.