The Red Sox have been trying to acquire multiple arms this offseason, so you can’t quite say this is a direct fallback to missing out on Jon Lester, but:
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 10, 2014
Miley, 28, is a couple years removed from his breakout 2012 campaign (3.33 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 3.75 xFIP, 4.4 WAR), and hasn’t duplicated that success since. In 2013 and 2014 combined, Miley has posted a 3.94/3.98/3.64 ERA/FIP/xFIP, which are slightly below average marks, except for the xFIP, which is slightly above average. Miley has put up 404 innings in that span and been worth 3.7 WAR. He’s pretty much been the definition of an average starting pitcher. That has some value.
Miley is first-time arbitration-eligible, and projects to make something in the $4 to $5 million range for 2015.
I find all of this interesting because the Cubs may soon consider dealing a very similar lefty in Travis Wood. If you look at his numbers from 2013-2014, they are very similar (Wood’s 3.6 WAR is just shy of Miley’s), though Miley holds a significant advantage in the xFIP department.
Wood, who is a few months younger than Miley, is a year closer to his breakout season – 2013 – and stands to make about $5 to $5.5 million in arbitration. He comes with one fewer years of control, however, and Miley is the better pitcher overall. Also, you can’t just throw out Miley’s excellent 2012 season. It was a couple years ago, but it did happen.
Still, whatever Miley nets the Diamondbacks is at least going to be interesting. Not necessarily even just as a comp for a possible Wood deal – if the Cubs elect to go down that road – but just to see what a league average pitcher with team control is worth on the trade market.
Oh, and because it’s the Winter Meetings, there’s an immediately conflicting report that comes out as I type:
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 10, 2014
So we’ll see. But, either way, it sounds like Miley has a strong chance to be dealt.
UPDATE: Nightengale wins this battle:
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) December 10, 2014
Perhaps Morosi just had the team wrong? It would be odd to be *that* off.
UPDATE: Turns out Morosi was not off, and Stewart’s denial reads more like a lie than a creative explanation. Which is fine, because rumor mongering is our business, not theirs. But it would be nice to have a little nuance.
The report via Ken Rosenthal and Morosi is the Red Sox are sending Allen Webster AND Rubby De La Rosa AND another prospect to the Diamondbacks for Miley, which is a pretty astounding sum. Yes, the stars of Webster and De La Rosa have fallen a bit since they were dealt to the Red Sox in that massive Crawford/Gonzalez deal back when, but they’re still young, controllable arms with upside. And a third prospect? We’ll see who it is, but this tentatively sets a strong comp for the Cubs if they wanted to shop Wood. They couldn’t rightly expect to get this much, but a legit prospect or two? Sure seems like it, assuming there’s a market out there for Wood.
I do like Miley and his groundball tendencies for Fenway Park, by the way. I just think the Red Sox may have paid a pretty steep price to get it.
UPDATE 3: This is just too much fun:
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 11, 2014