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Chicago Cubs Still Way Better than 50/50 to Make Playoffs and Other Bullets

Chicago Cubs News

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  • Obligatory first Bullet for those just checking in: the Cubs made a trade today, sending Welington Castillo to the Mariners.
  • Coming out of the off-day, the Chicago Cubs are 3.5 games back in the NL Central, thanks to a 14-inning 2-1 win by the Mets over the Cardinals late last night (#CardinalsLose). That’s not too shabby when you consider that, just 10 days ago, the Cubs were leaving St. Louis having dropped three of four, and standing 6.5 games back. It’s early, and a lot can happen, but, as we sit here today: the Cubs still have a very realistic chance in the NL Central.
  • To that end, check out the latest ZiPS projected standings from Dan Szymborski:

  • The Cubs, as you can see, come in for a Wild Card spot (and have a 53.6% chance of landing a playoff spot) in those standings, with an 18.6% chance of winning the division. FanGraphs has the Cubs a touch better, at 22.3% to win the division, and 59.4% to make the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus has the Cubs even a bit better, at 30.2% to win the division, and 63.0% to make the playoffs. If you were honest with yourself back in March, you would have taken those numbers in late May, right?

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  • If the season ended, today, by the way, the Cubs would play the Nationals in the NL Wild Card Game. (And I would be an absolute wreck.)
  • Peter Gammons writes about the new foundation of the Cubs – aka, Anthony Rizzo. Get ready to smile.
  • Patrick Mooney on all things Kris Bryant.
  • BP’s Matt Trueblood pointed this chart out to me on Twitter yesterday in response to the Soler Strike Zone article. It looks like Soler really is seeing more non-strikes called as strikes than the average player, so your anecdotal frustration is probably justified. It’s interesting to note, though, that Soler also sees more non-balls called as balls than the average player.
  • Former Cub Doug Glanville thinks it’s time for the Cubs and Sammy Sosa to reconcile (Tribune). I agree.
  • If you missed it last night, Michael wrote about the Marlins’ shocking managerial change. Also last evening, the Cubs designated Phil Coke for assignment and optioned Brian Schlitter to Iowa.

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Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Editor and Lead Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation.