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Chicago Cubs Still Way Better than 50/50 to Make Playoffs and Other Bullets

Chicago Cubs News

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  • Obligatory first Bullet for those just checking in: the Cubs made a trade today, sending Welington Castillo to the Mariners.
  • Coming out of the off-day, the Chicago Cubs are 3.5 games back in the NL Central, thanks to a 14-inning 2-1 win by the Mets over the Cardinals late last night (#CardinalsLose). That’s not too shabby when you consider that, just 10 days ago, the Cubs were leaving St. Louis having dropped three of four, and standing 6.5 games back. It’s early, and a lot can happen, but, as we sit here today: the Cubs still have a very realistic chance in the NL Central.
  • To that end, check out the latest ZiPS projected standings from Dan Szymborski:

  • The Cubs, as you can see, come in for a Wild Card spot (and have a 53.6% chance of landing a playoff spot) in those standings, with an 18.6% chance of winning the division. FanGraphs has the Cubs a touch better, at 22.3% to win the division, and 59.4% to make the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus has the Cubs even a bit better, at 30.2% to win the division, and 63.0% to make the playoffs. If you were honest with yourself back in March, you would have taken those numbers in late May, right?


  • If the season ended, today, by the way, the Cubs would play the Nationals in the NL Wild Card Game. (And I would be an absolute wreck.)
  • Peter Gammons writes about the new foundation of the Cubs – aka, Anthony Rizzo. Get ready to smile.
  • Patrick Mooney on all things Kris Bryant.
  • BP’s Matt Trueblood pointed this chart out to me on Twitter yesterday in response to the Soler Strike Zone article. It looks like Soler really is seeing more non-strikes called as strikes than the average player, so your anecdotal frustration is probably justified. It’s interesting to note, though, that Soler also sees more non-balls called as balls than the average player.
  • Former Cub Doug Glanville thinks it’s time for the Cubs and Sammy Sosa to reconcile (Tribune). I agree.
  • If you missed it last night, Michael wrote about the Marlins’ shocking managerial change. Also last evening, the Cubs designated Phil Coke for assignment and optioned Brian Schlitter to Iowa.



Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Editor and Lead Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation.