The World Series begins tonight, and, as they have been for the entire season, the Chicago Cubs remain the favorite to win the whole dang thing.
It is, of course, an even more reasonable notion now that there are but two teams left, but it still a reminder that, while October always surprises, sometimes it surprises you by actually putting the best true-talent team there in the end.
The Cleveland Indians, it should be noted, are no slouch of a team, not only having reached the World Series (losing just one playoff game in the process), but also winning 94 regular season games (second most in the AL).
But, as I said, the Cubs are the favorite in this one. A very comfortable favorite:
- At FanGraphs, the odds have the Cubs at 64.5% to win the series.
- At FiveThirtyEight, the odds have the Cubs at 63% to win the series.
- At ESPN, the ZiPS projection odds have the Cubs at 64% to win the series.
- Even the Vegas oddsmakers have the Cubs as a nearly 2:1 favorite to win the series.
In other words, however you slice it, the on-paper believe here is that the Cubs are about twice as likely to win this series than the Indians. That’s a fairly remarkable difference, and it’s a reflection of just how much stronger these Cubs project to be than the Indians.
Well all know that projections and probabilities and odds are only that, and there’s at least a one in three shot that the Indians will upset the Cubs and win the World Series.
But make no mistake: as we sit here today, the Cubs are the heavy, heavy favorite in this series.