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Cubs Minor League Daily: KATOH’s Two Top 100s Have Several Cubs Prospects

Cubs Minor Leagues and Prospects

By some accounts the Cubs are without any Top 100 prospects. According to the KATOH purely math based ranking system published by Fangraphs, the Cubs have a few, depending on how you run the numbers.


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In short, there are two KATOHs. One is pure stats driven, and the other includes some data from human prospect experts, particularly Baseball America. In the scouting data influenced version, the Cubs place three prospects in the top 100: Mark Zagunis (77), Jeimer Candelario (83), and Victor Caratini (91).

The fact that these three prospects are all high floor, relatively safe bets to land on a major league roster and stick around in at least a part time capacity for several years is no coincidence. KATOH ranks by projecting how may Wins Above Replacement a prospect will be worth over his first six years in the majors. That sort of ranking is going to tend to favor Triple A nearly ready types a bit. These three players clock in at 4.5, 4.3, and 3.9 future WAR respectively.

The stats-only version of KATOH is far more interesting.

On that list, the Cubs place: Ian Rice (60, 5.9 WAR), Victor Caratini (73, 5.3 WAR), Mark Zagunis (75, 5.2 WAR), and Isaac Paredes (76, 5.2 WAR).


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Rice has exploded onto the prospect scene with a strong Double A showing that includes lots of power (14 HR, .217 ISO) and lots of walks (14.3% BB%). His value as an offensive-minded backup catcher is readily apparent, and I don’t think we can dismiss the possibility of him evolving into a potential starting backstop.

Issac Paredes is an 18-year-old shortstop who could be the next Cubs’ uber-prospect. He has 7 homers and a .741 OPS for South Bend right now, and did I mention that he just turned 18 in February? He was Number 20 on the pre-season Top 40. Let’s just say he’ll be a lot higher than that on the mid-season edition.

So where does this leave the Cubs’ farm system? Exactly where we thought it was: plenty of talent deep in the system, plenty of high floor players high in the system, and an overall lack of proven impact talent. We’ll be talking about that a lot more in a few days when the mid-season Top 40 arrives.


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Triple A: Iowa Cubs
Iowa 6, El Paso 5
Every out El Paso made from the sixth inning on came via the strikeout.

Double A: Tennessee Smokies
Montgomery 6, Tennessee 3
After the first inning, the Smokies outscored the Biscuits 3 to 1.

High A: Myrtle Beach Pelicans
Potomac 5, Myrtle Beach 4
The Pelicans have lost five in a row and seven of their last ten.


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Low A: South Bend Cubs
Lake County 9, South Bend 7
South Bend tried to rally from a deep hole, but couldn’t pull it off.

Short Season A: Eugene Emeralds
Eugene 8, Salem-Keizer 5
The wind was blowing out to center at 14 MPH for this one.

Rookie: AZL Cubs
Angles 5, Cubs 2
The Cubs committed four errors.

Other Notes

  • Trevor Clifton tossed 35 pitches in the first, and did not come back out for the second. His ERA increased nearly half a run, from 4.00 to 4.45. That ERA was 2.84 as recently as June 14, and was 2.36 at the end of May.

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  • Dakota Mekkes seems likely to get one more appearance in the month of July. If he survives that outing without allowing a run, he will have pitched through the entire month of July without allowing a run. He’s up to 14 straight outings of more than 3 outs without giving up a run for Myrtle Beach.
  • With just a few games to go, Eddy Martinez has a July OPS of .867 with five homers. He has also already tied his monthly high for walks this year (7) and has struck out only 16 times.

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Luke Blaize

Luke Blaize is the Minor League Editor at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @ltblaize.