By some accounts the Cubs are without any Top 100 prospects. According to the KATOH purely math based ranking system published by Fangraphs, the Cubs have a few, depending on how you run the numbers.
In short, there are two KATOHs. One is pure stats driven, and the other includes some data from human prospect experts, particularly Baseball America. In the scouting data influenced version, the Cubs place three prospects in the top 100: Mark Zagunis (77), Jeimer Candelario (83), and Victor Caratini (91).
The fact that these three prospects are all high floor, relatively safe bets to land on a major league roster and stick around in at least a part time capacity for several years is no coincidence. KATOH ranks by projecting how may Wins Above Replacement a prospect will be worth over his first six years in the majors. That sort of ranking is going to tend to favor Triple A nearly ready types a bit. These three players clock in at 4.5, 4.3, and 3.9 future WAR respectively.
The stats-only version of KATOH is far more interesting.
On that list, the Cubs place: Ian Rice (60, 5.9 WAR), Victor Caratini (73, 5.3 WAR), Mark Zagunis (75, 5.2 WAR), and Isaac Paredes (76, 5.2 WAR).
Rice has exploded onto the prospect scene with a strong Double A showing that includes lots of power (14 HR, .217 ISO) and lots of walks (14.3% BB%). His value as an offensive-minded backup catcher is readily apparent, and I don’t think we can dismiss the possibility of him evolving into a potential starting backstop.
Issac Paredes is an 18-year-old shortstop who could be the next Cubs’ uber-prospect. He has 7 homers and a .741 OPS for South Bend right now, and did I mention that he just turned 18 in February? He was Number 20 on the pre-season Top 40. Let’s just say he’ll be a lot higher than that on the mid-season edition.
So where does this leave the Cubs’ farm system? Exactly where we thought it was: plenty of talent deep in the system, plenty of high floor players high in the system, and an overall lack of proven impact talent. We’ll be talking about that a lot more in a few days when the mid-season Top 40 arrives.
- Williams Perez: 2.1 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K
- Pierce Johnson: 2.2 IP, 1 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K
- Dillon Maples: 1 IP, 1 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K
- Jack Leathersich: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K
- Matt Carasiti: 1 IP, 1 BB, 3 K
- Jemile Weeks: 1 for 5, 2B
- Mark Zagunis: 2 for 4, BB
- Chris Dominguez: 1 for 5, 2B
- Tommy La Stella: 3 for 5
- Taylor Davis: 2 for 4, 2B, BB
- Elliot Soto: 2 for 3
- Trevor Clifton: 1 IP, 5 R, 6 H, 1 K
- Daury Torrez: 2 IP, 3 H, 3 K
- Carlos Penalver: 3 for 3, BB
- Cael Brockmeyer: 2 for 4
- Daniel Spingola: 1 for 3, 2B
- Michael Rucker: 5 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K
- Jake Stinnett: 1.1 IP, 2 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K
- Dakota Mekkes: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 3 K
- Zack Short: 3 for 5, 2B, 3B
- Jesse Hodges: 1 for 3, HR, BB
- Eddy Martinez: 3 for 4, HR, BB
- Tyler Pearson: 2 for 4, 2B
- Carson Sands: 1.2 IP, 5 R, 3 H, 5 BB, 3 K
- Yapson Gomez: 3.1 IP, 4 R, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
- Yeiler Peguero: 1 for 3, 2 BB
- Kevonte Mitchell: 2 for 5
- Isaac Paredes: 2 for 5
- Tyler Payne: 2 for 4
- Joey Martarano: 1 for 2, 2B, 2 BB
- Matt Swarmer: 6 IP, 3 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K
- Ricky Tyler Thomas: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K
- Jhonny Bethencourt: 1 for 2, 2 BB
- Brandon Hughes: 2 for 4
- Gustavo Polanco: 2 for 4
- Michael Cruz: 3 for 4, HR
- Danis Correa: 4.1 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K
- Mitch Stophel: 2 IP, 1 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K
- Chris Singleton: 1 for 4, 2B
- Yonathan Perlaza: 1 for 4, 2B
- Marcus Mastrobuoni: 2 for 3, BB
- Jose Gutierrez: 1 for 3, 2B, BB, SB
- Trevor Clifton tossed 35 pitches in the first, and did not come back out for the second. His ERA increased nearly half a run, from 4.00 to 4.45. That ERA was 2.84 as recently as June 14, and was 2.36 at the end of May.
- Dakota Mekkes seems likely to get one more appearance in the month of July. If he survives that outing without allowing a run, he will have pitched through the entire month of July without allowing a run. He’s up to 14 straight outings of more than 3 outs without giving up a run for Myrtle Beach.
- With just a few games to go, Eddy Martinez has a July OPS of .867 with five homers. He has also already tied his monthly high for walks this year (7) and has struck out only 16 times.