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Brett, here’s some info on Mat Latos. I’m just going to post the data and you can ask me about what you don’t understand and I’ll be glad to help. I just don’t want to write too much if I don’t need to so this is easier.
Latos: 13.5 WAR over next 4 years
Average win value: $5.39 million
Value provided: $72.53 million
Projected Salary based on arbitration 1, 2 and 3 being worth 40%, 60% and 80% of market value: $33.3 million
Projected Salary based on similar players: $26.0 million
Difference between value and projected salary (similar players): $46.55 million
Boxberger: $2 million (early in his career, but he has some minimal value
Grandal: $10 million (probably not a top 50, but a good prospect nonetheless)
Alonso: $15 million (based on his prospect ranking at the beginning of 2011 by Baseball America)
Volquez: $15 million (projected for 3.5ish WAR over next 2 years, $5.13 per win average, $18 million value, estimated $8 million salary, $10 surplus)
Total: $42 million
The likely difference between $42 million and $46 million is this: Alonso had a stellar partial season with the Reds so he’s probably a bit more valuable and Grandal is 22 and has reached AA while hitting quite well, probably perceived value higher than the $10 million listed above.
Regardless of where the difference is, there’s actually very little difference. The difference could be as simple as Latos being projected to be worth 12.5 WAR over the next 4 years. When you come out this close on the type of asset that you’re trading it’s actually quite impressive. It’s usually not this simple, but in this case it is. The Padres got back almost exactly what they gave up in projected value.
I’ll get back with you in a couple hours regarding Gio Gonzalez. Haven’t run those numbers yet except in my head.
David