Although we’re nearing Thanksgiving, the meat of this offseason has yet to be cooked.
Don’t get me wrong, the rumors have been flying all over the place, but with one very big, home-run-hitting fish out there in Giancarlo Stanton, teams may be waiting to see where he lands, before kicking their offseasons off in earnest.
So far, rumors have pointed to the San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, and Philadelphia Phillies as the most likely destinations, but up to seven(ish) other teams have been connected to the 2017 home run king at one point or another, so he could really wind up anywhere.
At ESPN, Dan Szymborski took what are considered to be the ten most likely landing spots (below), and projected what Stanton might do over the remaining ten years of his contract with each of those teams.
Below, I’ve collected just the home run and WAR totals for each spot, but you can see full projections right here at ESPN:
Phillies: 48 WAR, 376 HRs
Giants: 46.2 WAR, 318 HRs
Yankees: 45.8 WAR, 377 HRs
Dodgers: 45.1 WAR, 348 HRs
Astros: 45 WAR, 347 HRs
Cubs: 44.8 WAR, 348 HRs
White Sox: 43.4 WAR, 348 HRs
Cardinals: 42.6 WAR, 314 HRs
Angels: 39.5 WAR, 315 HRs
Red Sox: 36.8 WAR, 304 HRs
With these numbers in mind, it’s no surprise to see that the Phillies and Giants are among the two most interested parties. Not only do they both have needs in the outfield and the market-size to afford whatever Stanton costs, they are the two teams projected to get the most out of him over the next decade.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, are projected to get the third least WAR out of Stanton (among these ten teams) over the next ten years. Some early reports have suggested that Stanton would exercise his no-trade clause against St. Louis anyway, so maybe we’ll never see this scenario play out.
Some other notable bits include Stanton notching the most homers and RBI in New York (377 HRs, 987 RBI), the most hits on the North Side of Chicago (1,143), the fewest strikeouts in St. Louis (1,124), and the best SLG in Philadelphia (.594).
Basically, he’ll be a beast anywhere he goes, but these projections certainly shed some light on which team he might find the most success.