Should You Ever Kick Before Fourth Down? And Other Bears Bullets

CutlerMarshall

Good morning! Welcome to the first ever Daily Bears Bullets. I hope I don’t owe Brett any royalties. (Uh oh … he used to be an attorney, didn’t he? Maybe I should have read my contract.)

  • As noted yesterday by commenter Brett Taylor (that kid might have a future in this business), Advanced NFL Stats took a look at whether NFL teams should ever attempt a field goal before fourth down. The results are probably going to be fuel for the “Trestman was grossly mistaken” fire.
  • “The Jay Cutler Show” is must-listen radio, in my opinion. (Podcast available here.) Yesterday was no exception, as he (unsurprisingly) backed up his coach’s decision to kick the field goal in overtime. More importantly for the Bears immediate future, he called his chances of playing “50/50”, and said that he’d like to begin practicing this week with an eye on a Monday night return. Michael C. Wright has a full write-up on Cutler’s injury comments, along with Marc Trestman’s (noncommittal) perspective. In my opinion, considering the apparent severity of the ankle injury, there’s no reason to rush Jay back again. But once he is healthy, I’ll be very glad to see him take the field. We’ll know more later in the week; if he’s practicing, I’d take that to mean he’s probably going to start, although with NFL injuries, nothing is ever set in stone.
  • On the show Cutler also noted that he would be attending the Bears holiday party; that’s where the picture above was taken before Brandon Marshall sent it out on Instagram. The beard really makes Jay’s head look huge, doesn’t it? (Note: that is a sentence that has been said in reference to me, word for word, at least 30 times.)
  • Kevin Fishbain at the Bears Insider blog has an analysis of the Bears player snap counts from Sunday. Notables: Jeremiah Ratliff played 23 snaps in his return from a year-long absence; I’d look for that number to increase sharply Monday night against Dallas, his former team. Craig Steltz, Jon Bostic, James Anderson, Tim Jennings, and Chris Conte played every possible defensive snap, and as Kevin notes Chris Conte has not missed a play all year. (Why isn’t everyone cheering?) Kevin also notes that as with every other game this season, the Bears five starting offensive linemen played every down. That’s important for continuity, of course, but the two rookies on the right side are also getting a lot of experience by being able to stay on the field. I’m still amazed at what Phil Emery was able to do to the offensive line in one offseason, but maybe that’s because Jerry Angelo told us over the course of multiple seasons that J’Marcus Webb was a left tackle worth building around.
  • I tweeted this out last night, but the New York Times partnered with NFL Advanced Stats (yep, same guys as the first bullet) to build a model designed to determine when a team should go for it on fourth down. Included is an archive of every fourth down decision for every team this season, with a side-by-side comparison to what the “4th Down Bot” would have called for. You can find the Bears page here, and it makes for some very interesting reading. Notably, the model says the Bears should have gone for it on every fourth down they faced against the Vikings save their overtime 4th-and-18, while Trestman didn’t attempt to convert on any of those chances. This Sunday was just the fourth game of the season in which Trestman didn’t order an attempted fourth down conversion. As I said on Twitter, the science behind the model and the play index on the site is a veritable rabbit hole for NFL statheads.
  • Jeff Dickerson held his weekly chat at ESPN Chicago; Jeff does a great job with these chats, and he covered a wide array of topics. Some of the highlights: he thought Trestman coached not to lose; he is assuming Jeremiah Ratliff will play more against Dallas; he believes some of the defensive personnel aren’t yet sold on Mel Tucker, while some have absolutely bought in; and he thinks it’s possible that Lance Briggs returns Monday night, but no one will know until he can practice.
  • I’ll be back this afternoon with a long look back at what I (and many of you, according to Twitter) had originally thought was a botched use of the ten second runoff rule; the truth was a bit more complex.

    written by

    Luis C. Medina, who you can find on Twitter at lcm1986, has been covering the Chicago Bears at Bleacher Nation since 2017. Since then, he has written about 3 head coaches, 5 play-callers, and 11 starting quarterbacks. Previously, Luis wrote about the Cubs and MLB at BN (2015-16) and worked in the Chicago Tribune sports department (2011-16). He also co-hosted a Cubs postgame show, Outside the Ivy, in 2019.

    more bears news

    Dan Campbell is Happy To See Justin Fields Leave the NFC North

    There was no escaping the mixed emotions from Chicago Bears fans when the Justin Fields trade went down earlier this month. But there were none of that from Detroit Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell. Heck, I'd argue there was just...

    Another Pass Rusher Signs Elsewhere: Jadeveon Clowney Lands With the Panthers

    Another day. Another pass rusher signing. And another defensive lineman going to a team that isn't the Chicago Bears. NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport was the first with the news of Jadeveon Clowney signing with the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, ESPN's...

    Malik Nabers Might’ve Run His Way Out of the Chicago Bears Draft Spot

    Today was LSU's Pro Day and Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles was scheduled to be in attendance, per The Athletic's Adam Jahns. Assuming Poles made his flight, he got a good look at the likes of quarterback Jayden Daniels, as...

    Goodell on Bears Stadium Deal, No to Hard Knocks? More Old Friends Go to Steelers, and Other Bears Bullets

    I keep forgetting that I have a Starbucks gift card from Christmas that has gone unused to this point. Maybe I'll remember it next time I go out for coffee. A big shout out to PFF Brad, who made the...

    Ryan Poles Was Pissed Off By RGIII’s Comments About Caleb Williams Situation

    When I saw them pop up, RGIII's comments suggesting Caleb Williams pull an Eli Manning and refuse to play for the Chicago Bears were met with an eye-roll, audible groan, and immediate dismissal before moving onto more pertinent topics. But...

    Bears Stadium Update: Kevin Warren Reiterates Plans to Build in Downtown Chicago

    It sure is starting to sound like Arlington Heights fumbled the bag when it comes to locking in Arlington Park as the future home of a Chicago Bears stadium. While meeting with the media at the NFL owners meetings in...

    The NFL is Playing a Christmas Day Doubleheader in 2024

    Christmastime is generally full of cheer. And in 2024, it will be full of cheering. In fact, we're talking double the cheer. ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter reports the league will play not one, but *TWO* Christmas Day games. It's...

    2024 NFL Mock Draft: How High Can J.J. McCarthy’s Stock Rise?

    Hard to believe we're less than a month away from the 1st Round of the 2024 NFL Draft! With just weeks remaining until the NFL's most noteworthy offseason event, there are plenty of rumors floating. As we work through all...

    NFL Rules Shakeup, Tomlin on Fields, Trubisky’s Linsanity Run, and Other Bears Bullets

    The Bachelor's season-finale had a couple of jaw-dropping moments. Once the group chat catches up, it is going to be lit. What better way to start Bears Bullets than with breakfast anecdotes? I think I'm going to enjoy D'Andre Swift's...

    Around the NFL: New Kickoff Rules Explained, NFL Trade Deadline Extended, More

    NFL owners ratified a sweeping overhaul of the kickoff play on Tuesday, embracing a format inspired by the XFL following three days of deliberations at the league’s yearly gathering. Essentially, the new format relocates the bulk of both kicking and return teams...

    Latest News

    Los Angeles Chargers Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

    The Los Angeles Chargers enter the offseason with a new era dawning. After a disappointing season, they landed a marquee hire in Jim Harbaugh, fresh off his national championship win with Michigan. Hailed as the top coaching prospect, Harbaugh brings a...

    Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

    Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

    Rangers vs. Cubs Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

    The Texas Rangers (0-0) begin their 2024 season with a home game against the Chicago Cubs (0-0) on Thursday, with first pitch at 7:35 PM ET.The Rangers will give the nod to Nathan Eovaldi versus the Cubs and Justin Steele.Rangers...

    Best NBA Prop Bets Today – March 28, 2024

    The Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks take the court for one of two exciting matchups on the NBA slate today.Looking for NBA player prop bets for today's games? This article includes NBA player props for every matchup, so take...

    UNC vs Alabama Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

    We have a great matchup in the Sweet 16 between (1) North Carolina and (4) Alabama. Let's break down the odds, ATS records, and more for UNC vs Alabama as March Madness continues. Read More: Today's schedule and upset picks...

    Seattle Seahawks Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

    The Seattle Seahawks turn the page on a historic era as they enter the 2024 season without Pete Carroll at the helm for the first time since 2010. Carroll's impact on the franchise is undeniable, crafting a period of sustained...

    Who Is In The Sweet 16? Updated Bracket, Odds to Win, and More

    It has been a great March Madness so far and we have more great matchups in the Sweet 16. Check out what teams are in the Sweet 16, odds, and more as the college basketball season rolls on. Latest March...

    The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

    You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

    Today’s March Madness Schedule: Updated Bracket, TV Channels for Every Game

    The Sweet 16 is here as March Madness brings us some great matchups tonight! Check out today's March Madness schedule along with game times, TV channels, and more as the college basketball season's biggest games continue. The Sweet 16 Begins...

    2024 MLB Mock Draft: Opening Day Mock Draft Projections

    Happy Opening Day! As the new baseball season begins, and hope is present among most fanbases, why not take a look at a new 2024 MLB Mock Draft? Various mock drafts meticulously analyze potential picks, emphasizing the abundance of talent...

    more bears news