Here’s some good news you probably hadn’t considered: until the Lions lost to Baltimore, there was a scenario in play in which the Bears could have gone 10-6 and missed the playoffs for the second time in two seasons. That’s no longer possible; if the Bears win their final two games, they make the playoffs. Which is good, as suffering that particular fate for the second year in a row would have to be some sort of Eighth Amendment violation.
So, what variables are in play? I tried to make this list as comprehensive as possible, so you (and I) could use it as a reference guide going into next weekend. Hopefully I got everything. The Green Bay tie threw a wrench into proceedings.
Warning: headaches may ensue.
As I mentioned, the simplest point: if the Bears win both of their remaining games, they’re in the playoffs. If you’d prefer to think of it like that and ignore the convoluted mess below, I can’t say that I’d blame you. (Personally, I always like diving into these scenarios. I might just be weird.)
If the Lions and Packers both lose on Sunday, the Bears would clinch with a win in Philadelphia on Sunday night. This is the only scenario in which the Bears can clinch this weekend.
If all three teams win on Sunday, the Lions would be eliminated; their ceiling would be 9-7, while one of Chicago or Green Bay would finish with, at most, 6 losses. The Bears-Packers game would be a de facto play-in game.
If all three teams were to lose, the Bears would clinch with a win or tie in Week 17 against Green Bay. In this scenario, Detroit would be 8-8 at best, while one of either Chicago or Green Bay would be leaving Soldier Field with only 7 losses. This would also create a de facto play-in game.
If Green Bay wins while Detroit and Chicago lose, Detroit would be eliminated and the Bears-Packers game would be a de facto play-in game.
If the Lions lose while Green Bay and Chicago win, the Lions would be eliminated, and the Bears/Packers game for Week 17 would be a de facto play-in game. (This scenario, along with the previous three, would likely result in the Bears-Packers game being flexed to Sunday Night Football. I’d think it would be less likely to happen if the Lions still have any kind of chance heading into Week 17, but I could be wrong.)
If Chicago and Detroit win next weekend, but Green Bay loses, the Packers would be eliminated, as they could not reach 9 wins while Chicago would finish, at worst, 9-7. That would set up a Week 17 in which the Bears would clinch with a win or a Lions loss or tie in Minnesota, while the Lions would clinch with a win and a Chicago loss.
If Detroit wins next Sunday while both Chicago and Green Bay lose, Green Bay would be eliminated, Detroit would clinch with a win in Minnesota, and the Bears would need to win or tie and hope for a Detroit loss.
If the Bears were to lose on Sunday, while Green Bay and Detroit both won, the Bears would need to defeat Green Bay on the final weekend and hope for a Lions loss or tie. It’s important to note that the Bears will be alive going into Week 17 no matter what happens next weekend.
I’ll also note that if the Bears beat the Eagles and subsequently make the playoffs (no matter how they do it) they’ll be the #3 seed in the NFC. (Neither the Eagles or Cowboys could have a better record in this scenario, and the Bears would own the tiebreaker against both teams.)
If the Bears lose to the Eagles and Philadelphia ends up NFC East champion, the best Chicago could hope for would be the #4 seed.
If the Bears were to lose to Philadelphia but make the playoffs, and Dallas were to win the NFC East, the Bears would be assured of the #3 seed barring an insane scenario in which the Bears win the division via a Week 17 tie against Green Bay. Since the Bears most likely must win once more to make the playoffs, they could finish no worse than tied with Dallas at 9-7; they would get the higher seed based on their head-to-head victory in Week 14.
So, totally simple, right? If it helps, any Detroit loss knocks them out. Also, I’d love to use “de facto” more often. Really went on a tear there for a few bullets. Who knew Latin was so fun? How did it ever die? Regardless, I’d be more than okay with the Bears winning out and making this moot, even though I spent a sad amount of time compiling it.
You just know ESPN is going to have some sort of interactive graphic that explains everything far better than I just did. If you see something like that, please don’t share it with me.
Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here.
Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.
If the Chicago Bears end up drafting Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze, I imagine this tweet from Tom Pelissero is going to get a ton of engagement: https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1782905425689522654 In fairness, it already has gotten all sorts of clicks. But that...
Draft Day is finally here! We've taken quite a few cracks at what the first round could look like, and this will be the last one before the NFL Draft kicks off tonight! It still feels like a really unpredictable...
The 2024 NFL Draft begins TODAY. Chicago Bears General Manager Ryan Poles, Assistant GM Ian Cunningham, Head Coach Matt Eberflus, and others will put their heads together to come up with a winning plan for the team’s four picks (Nos....
The 2024 NFL Draft begins Thursday. Chicago Bears General Manager Ryan Poles, Assistant GM Ian Cunningham, Head Coach Matt Eberflus, and others will put their heads together to come up with a winning plan for the team’s four picks (Nos....
The Chicago Bears drafting Caleb Williams with the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is a foregone conclusion. However, what happens with the Bears' other first-round pick is anything but a lock. One name we haven't discussed much as...
Today is the day we've been waiting for since the NFL regular season ended. It's NFL Draft Day! The Chicago Bears have the first pick. Unless something unexpected happens, it'll be USC quarterback Caleb Williams getting the nod. Now that...
Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes is hard at work today! It's fitting that just a day before the 2024 NFL Draft kicks off in Detroit, the Lions have locked up two franchise, homegrown cornerstones just hours apart. This morning,...
The Chicago Bears unveiled plans for their downtown lakefront stadium proposal on Wednesday. And as you might expect, it is very kind on the eyes: https://twitter.com/ChicagoBears/status/1783185834490888461 The Bears even gave the project a code name — The Burnham Park Project: The...
We have a new highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL! According to a report from NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport, the Lions have made Amon-Ra St. Brown the richest wideout in the NFL with a four-year, $120 million contract extension...
The 2024 NFL Draft begins Thursday. Chicago Bears General Manager Ryan Poles, Assistant GM Ian Cunningham, Head Coach Matt Eberflus, and others will put their heads together to come up with a winning plan for the team’s four picks (Nos....
The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2024 offseason with the familiar feeling of championship aspirations. Dak Prescott is healthy, the skill positions are loaded, but the offensive line, once a strength, is in flux. With the 24th overall pick in the...
With the invigorating spirit of a new baseball season upon us, igniting hope and anticipation within fan communities, it's the perfect time to embark on a unique exploration: a 2024 MLB Mock Draft. Numerous mock drafts meticulously analyze potential player...
The Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks are playing in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs, with Game 3 up next.The Knicks beat the 76ers 104-101 on Monday when they last met. Jalen Brunson led the Knicks in the...
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it'll be the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Orlando Magic, with Donovan Mitchell needing four trifectas to beat his 3-pointer over/under.Donovan Mitchell's Three-Pointer Prop...
On Thursday at 7:00 PM ET, the Cleveland Cavaliers play the Orlando Magic in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and Caris LeVert's 3-pointer over/under for this matchup requires just one trey.Caris LeVert's Three-Pointer Prop Odds...
To beat his 3-point prop, Josh Hart needs to make two from downtown on Thursday, when his New York Knicks meet the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, tipping off at 7:30 PM...
The New York Knicks face the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday at 7:30 PM ET in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and if the Knicks' Jalen Brunson drains three 3-pointers, he'll beat his over/under.Jalen Brunson's Three-Pointer...
To beat his 3-point over/under, Donte DiVincenzo needs to make four from downtown on Thursday, when his New York Knicks play the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, beginning at 7:30 PM ET.Donte...
To beat his 3-point prop, Joel Embiid needs to make two from beyond the arc on Thursday, when his Philadelphia 76ers meet the New York Knicks in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, starting at 7:30...
The Philadelphia 76ers play the New York Knicks at 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and one of the 3-pointer over/unders available for this matchup requires four trifectas from Tyrese...
NEWSLETTER
