On the Dangers of Overvaluing a Single Game

PhilEmeryConfused

As we get ready for a game that will define the season (it won’t strictly define it, but it will certainly change the spin one way or the other) I think it’s appropriate to look at what we know now, before we know the result. It can be dangerous to focus too much on results; that can lead to overlooking glaring problems or to unnecessary, rash changes. From what I’ve read about Phil Emery, he and his team are much more process-focused, which is comforting. I never felt the last regime had that attitude. (Do you think the Bears would have Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery if Jerry Angelo had been given another year?)

So before we know how the season turns out, what do we know? Here are a few things I feel confident about moving forward into the offseason, regardless of the outcome of tomorrow’s game.

  • The offense is good. Credit any number of people for this, in various amounts. Phil Emery, Marc Trestman, Aaron Kromer, the players themselves…there’s plenty of credit to go around. Just how drastic was the improvement? Beyond the vault in yards gained and points scored, the Bears currently rank 5th in the Football Outsiders Weighted Offense stat. They finished last season 24th. That’s incredible to think about, and as mentioned, the kudos can be spread to many parties. The improved offensive line, the development of Alshon Jeffery, the addition of Martellus Bennett, some great quarterback play (from both Cutler and McCown), and customary great years from veterans Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte, who I’d put in the top-5 at their positions. When my biggest issue with the offense is Roberto Garza’s inability to snap the ball to a quarterback in the shotgun, that’s probably a good sign. If you told me that all eleven offensive starters were coming back next season, I’d be more than happy about that.
  • The same cannot be said for the defense, though. The injury issues on the defensive side have been overwhelming, but other teams have had injuries by now as well, and those teams aren’t allowing 161.5 rushing yards per game. That’s good for last in the league, and over the last 10 seasons, only three other teams have allowed 160+ yards per game: the 2010 Bills, the 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions, and the 2006 Colts. (Silver lining alert: that Colts team obviously won the Super Bowl (like I had to remind everyone of that game…sigh) when Bob Sanders returned for the postseason, shoring up their defense. If you’d like to dream big, maybe Lance Briggs can play a similar role? To be honest, signing Bob Sanders off the street doesn’t even sound that crazy at this point.) So if there have been times this year, while watching every opposing running back break off long gains, you wondered if the level of defensive incompetence you’ve witnessed is rare, the answer is yes. I think it’s fair to expect an overhauled defensive unit, and after watching the offensive transformation that Phil Emery helped facilitate, I’m excited to see what moves the Bears decide to make. (Start with the safeties, please. The fact that Chris Conte and Major Wright are both “safeties” is growing more ironic than your average Brooklyn hipster bar.
  • Marc Trestman is a capable coach. It hasn’t been a flawless debut season for Trestman, (the decision to kick on second down against Minnesota stands out as his low point) but I think it’s very fair to say that he belongs as an NFL head coach. He’s not overmatched at all, and his analytical, aggressive approach to playcalling and game management is an attractive one. When he won the job, I wasn’t sure what to think; I just didn’t know enough about him. I think it’s fair to say now that I’m excited about the direction he has the team heading. Also, he’s 8-7 on challenges this year; considering Lovie’s long-documented woes (this 2011 Sun-Times piece had him at 19-61 at that point in his career; that’s staggeringly poor over a fairly large stretch of time) it’s refreshing to see a coach who seems to have some sort of plan for those plays. I’ve always felt that competent coaching is more important in football due to the shorter season; the smaller sample of games means that a mistake by the coaching staff is magnified in importance, in a way that a baseball manager pulling a pitcher too soon in May is not. I actually liken it to the baseball playoffs, when it becomes much more advantageous to have a manager who knows what he’s doing. In football, every game matters at that level.
  • Jay Cutler can succeed in this offense. This is sort of the big one, because the reaction to today’s game is likely going to focus on Cutler, win or lose. If he plays well in a Bears win, that will be the focus. If he plays poorly in a loss, that will absolutely be the focus, and that one game will probably dominate the inevitable contract talks in the offseason. But that’s not really a fair thing for him. One game is one game. He could play poorly and get lucky, he could play well and have terrible luck. We’re not really going to learn anything that can be useful long-term from this game. But over the course of the year, as Cutler put up some very good numbers (albeit in limited starts) it became increasingly clear that he can be a fit with this offense. I think on a reasonable deal, he should be back in Chicago. That opinion isn’t going to change based on the game. He could throw throws five interceptions and I wouldn’t want him gone, and he could throw five interceptions and I wouldn’t want to drastically overpay for his services. I’d much rather see the touchdowns, though.
  • What are you sure about?

     

    written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more bears news

    Rome Odunze Has a Visit With the Bears Coming Soon

    If you aren't already familiar with Rome Odunze's name or game, your time will come. The University of Washington wide receiver is one of the top prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft. At this point of the year, I've officially...

    Matt Eberflus Opens a Window to the Chicago Bears Draft Plans

    NFL coaches are notoriously tight-lipped. And in his first two seasons as Bears head coach, Matt Eberflus has been no different. But every once in a while you'll catch Eberflus peel back the curtain and provide some insight regarding the...

    What Does a Chicago Bears NFL Draft Trade Down Look Like?

    You'd think we'd be well-versed in trade-back options after months of wondering what kind of haul it would take for the Bears to move off taking quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. But trading...

    D-Line Thoughts, Caleb, GM Seth Rollins, Pack Votes No, and Other Bears Bullets

    Cubs and White Sox opening day is today today. March Madness resumes with the Fighting Illini playing in the Sweet 16 later tonight. SIU, my alma mater, is reportedly hiring a "Coach Nagy" to lead its basketball team. And what...

    Dan Campbell is Happy To See Justin Fields Leave the NFC North

    There was no escaping the mixed emotions from Chicago Bears fans when the Justin Fields trade went down earlier this month. But there were none of that from Detroit Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell. Heck, I'd argue there was just...

    Another Pass Rusher Signs Elsewhere: Jadeveon Clowney Lands With the Panthers

    Another day. Another pass rusher signing. And another defensive lineman going to a team that isn't the Chicago Bears. NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport was the first with the news of Jadeveon Clowney signing with the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, ESPN's...

    Malik Nabers Might’ve Run His Way Out of the Chicago Bears Draft Spot

    Today was LSU's Pro Day and Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles was scheduled to be in attendance, per The Athletic's Adam Jahns. Assuming Poles made his flight, he got a good look at the likes of quarterback Jayden Daniels, as...

    Goodell on Bears Stadium Deal, No to Hard Knocks? More Old Friends Go to Steelers, and Other Bears Bullets

    I keep forgetting that I have a Starbucks gift card from Christmas that has gone unused to this point. Maybe I'll remember it next time I go out for coffee. A big shout out to PFF Brad, who made the...

    Ryan Poles Was Pissed Off By RGIII’s Comments About Caleb Williams Situation

    When I saw them pop up, RGIII's comments suggesting Caleb Williams pull an Eli Manning and refuse to play for the Chicago Bears were met with an eye-roll, audible groan, and immediate dismissal before moving onto more pertinent topics. But...

    Bears Stadium Update: Kevin Warren Reiterates Plans to Build in Downtown Chicago

    It sure is starting to sound like Arlington Heights fumbled the bag when it comes to locking in Arlington Park as the future home of a Chicago Bears stadium. While meeting with the media at the NFL owners meetings in...

    Latest News

    Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

    The Miami Marlins (0-1) are favorites (-132) on the moneyline when they square off against the Pittsburgh Pirates (1-0) Friday at 7:10 PM ET, live on BSFL.Miami's Andrew Jacob Puk and Pittsburgh's Martin Perez have been named the starters for...

    Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

    The Tampa Bay Rays (0-1) and Toronto Blue Jays (1-0) meet Friday at Tropicana Field, starting at 6:50 PM ET on SNET. The Rays are -122 moneyline favorites for the contest, however, the Blue Jays are favored against the spread...

    Astros vs. Yankees Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

    The New York Yankees (1-0) visit the Houston Astros (0-1) for a road game on Friday at 8:10 PM ET.The Astros will look to Cristian Javier versus the Yankees and Carlos Rodon.Astros vs. Yankees Pitcher Matchup and Game InfoWhen: Friday,...

    Bet $5 with FanDuel Promo Code, Win $200 Bonus Including NCAA Tournament

    This weekend is packed with great sports action including the NCAA Tournament, MLB, and NBA for bettors. Check out the FanDuel promo code to score a $200 bonus if your first $5 bet wins! If you live in NC, you...

    DraftKings Promo Code: Get $150 for $5 Bet on College Basketball and More Sports

    This time of the year on the sports calendar is truly special with the MLB season starting, college basketball in full swing, and much more! Don't miss out on the chance to grab a bonus by using the latest DraftKings...

    Rays vs. Blue Jays Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

    The Toronto Blue Jays (1-0) play on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays (0-1) at Tropicana Field. The game is set to start at 6:50 PM ET on Friday.The Rays will call on Aaron Civale versus the Blue Jays...

    Marlins vs. Pirates Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

    The Pittsburgh Pirates (1-0) play on Friday in Miami against the Miami Marlins (0-1). First pitch is at 7:10 PM ET.The Marlins will call on Andrew Jacob Puk against the Pirates and Martin Perez.Marlins vs. Pirates Pitcher Matchup and Game...

    Duke vs Houston Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

    We have a couple of number-one seeds in March Madness action tonight including Houston (32-4) as the Cougars take on Duke (26-8). Check out the odds and more for Duke vs Houston which tips off tonight at 9:39 pm ET...

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

    The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enjoyed a successful 2023 season, capturing their third straight NFC South title and pushing the Detroit Lions in a thrilling Divisional Round matchup. This strong showing translates to a relatively stable roster with few glaring weaknesses...

    NC State vs Marquette Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

    March Madness matchups bring us a great battle tonight as 11-seed NC State battles 2-seed Marquette. Check out the odds, stats, and more for NC State vs Marquette which tips off at 7:09 pm ET tonight. NC State vs Marquette...

    more bears news