11 replies to this topic

[Cubs Dude]

Everyone is completely hating on this guy, and I am fed up. Just because he strikes out a lot he sucks? I know his #'s have been disappointing at AAA so far, but I think he'll come around. People loved this guy before the year started, now they think he's a turd because he's hitting in the .260's. Let's package him in a deal with so and so... Who knows what he is working on. Get over the strike outs... Come on now.

[MichiganGoat]

Ah you got to let that go, high K rates are concerning and valid. I can understand why people are worried.

[Cubs Dude]

So basically he goes from a top 35 prospect too a guy who will never make it?? I have heard him compared to Mark Reynolds (which says he's terrible because he doesn't have that power) and other power guys who K a lot. I haven't heard anything positive about BJax since spring training. If he can keep his obp around .345 in the show who cares about the k's?

[Oswego Chris]

most prospects don't pan out, and I think some of us are just being cautious....jackson was at the top of what was a really bad Cub system...I have read that his ceiling is that of a starter...not a star, but just a guy that can possibly start in the bigs...I will still put my money on Javiar Baez as most legit prospect in the system....including Rizzo...

[Segal27]

I have never hated Jackson, in fact he is my favorite player.I think he can be a star. I really do

[Drew]

So basically he goes from a top 35 prospect too a guy who will never make it?? I have heard him compared to Mark Reynolds (which says he's terrible because he doesn't have that power) and other power guys who K a lot. I haven't heard anything positive about BJax since spring training. If he can keep his obp around .345 in the show who cares about the k's?

Ive been a huge Jackson supporter for a while, and I know what you mean, but Goat is right - the concerns are valid.

You are absolutely right regarding his OBP: if he can keep it around. 345 he will be fine (I actually wouldnt put it past him to eventually possess Reynolds-type power), but his AAA K-rate could translate into 35%+ at the ML level, and its hard to produce at all at that rate.

That being said, I think he'll come around, and I hope he's mainstay in the lineup for years.

[Hector Villanueva]

most prospects don't pan out, and I think some of us are just being cautious....jackson was at the top of what was a really bad Cub system...I have read that his ceiling is that of a starter...not a star, but just a guy that can possibly start in the bigs...I will still put my money on Javiar Baez as most legit prospect in the system....including Rizzo...

This pretty much sums it up. It's amazing the amount of prospects that never make it including overhyped ones like BJax. Rizzo is tearing up AAA but so is Brad Eldred...

[Luke]

I have read that his ceiling is that of a starter...not a star, but just a guy that can possibly start in the bigs...

This.

The story on Brett Jackson for the past year or two is that he is a guy who projects as a solid, everyday, regular major league outfielder. He might make an All-Star game in a flukish career year, but that's about it. He isn't a star in the making, he's a pretty good player in the making.

The hype on Brett Jackson is that he is a perennial All-Star.

And unfortunately, more fans believed something closer to the hype than the story.

All that we are seeing in Iowa now is an indication of who Brett Jackson really is.

He's a plus defensive corner outfielder or average defensive center fielder who projects to have 20+ HR power and 20+ SB speed. He has a selectively aggressive approach at the plate that yields a lot of hard hit balls, a lot of strike outs, and a lot of walks.

http://www.fangraphs...745&position=OF

Currently he is striking out in 31.9% of his at bats for the season, and that number is disturbingly high. He also has a walk rate of 9.7%, the third lowest in any level/season of his career. Despite all that, he still an OPS over .800. In the worst offensive season of his professional life he is still posting solid numbers. That is also an important point, and one we should not over look.

It does appear that he has a hole in swing, and that is something he will need to address. He has time in which to address it, though. The reason the minor league system exists is so players can find their flaws, fix them, and have new flaws exposed. It is possible that this is a flaw he won't be able to fix, but that is by no means certain. He still has plenty of time to make the adjustments he can make.

Realistically, I still suspect Jackson will post a regular major league line in the ballpark of .260/.340/.450 with about 20ish steals and 20ish HR. That's good for an OPS of .790. Those are not All-Star numbers by any means, but they are the numbers of a guy the Cubs can feel reasonably confident about penciling into the No. 7 slot on the lineup card every day for a decade or so (unless he gets passed by someone else out of the system).

I suspect a great deal of the panic over Jackson is that many fans are just now realizing that the hype was ever only just that... hype. And since the false hype was in fact false, they are over reacting and assuming that Jackson is a failed prospect. That's no more accurate than the highly inflated hype.

[Crockett]

This is all basically correct, Luke. The only issue is that Jackson does not have a true hole in his swing. Meaning, he doesn't have a sweet spot pitchers can hammer to get him. His "hole" is the entire strike zone. He's one of those guys who just struggles putting bat-on-ball no matter what type of pitch or what location. When he does, he has very good bat speed and certainly above average athleticism, but it's an issue that is going to be difficult to overcome.

[Cubs Dude]

Luke, thanks for the analysis. I do have to say, that picturing our top prospect batting 7th in is prime in the majors, and struggling like everyone has mentioned is very disappointing. Lets hope he can fix the contact issue (at least a little).

[Rated Rookie]

No reason to hate him. A lot of guys strike out a lot and are still very productive. If he can get on base and hit for power, he can make up for it, especially as a CF. Personally, I think that if we were to be called up today, he'd be Drew Stubbs, and ultimately grow up to be Chris Young in the next few years, which is a great guy to have assuming you have 3-4 better hitters in your lineup.

[Fishin Phil]

I think many Cub fans are leery of center field prospects, we're still trying to get the taste of Pie out of our mouths.