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Position-Adjusted wOBA


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7 replies to this topic

#1 Drew

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 12:41 PM

So...sitting through another god-awful conference call has me thinking - "man, time sure flew by when I did that adjusted OPS+ post during the last call...maybe I could do another one!"

And so, due to my need to pass the time, and my enjoyment of wOBA, I bring to you, BN... Position-Adjusted wOBA!

Really the same thought process as the last post, except with wOBA, which weights each outcome of a PA differently (whereas OBP has no weighting) and according to their run value (this is where it differs from Slg, and thus, OPS).

So, without further delay, your 2012 Cubs (100 being position-average)

Soto: 84
LaHair: 1B=118 RF=114
Barney: 101
Castro: 108
Stewart: 85
Dejesus: RF=98 CF=100
Campana: 93
Johnson: 99
Soriano: 106
Baker: 88

Now, not many differences, but there are a few:

Campana, due to being, like, 24/27 in SB's, jumps quite a bit from his OPS numbers, but still well below average.

When Rizzo starts at 1st, you can easily see how this makes the offense better, even if Rizzo is just league-average at 1B
:
Basically, we-
Replace Dejesus' 98 with Lahair's 114 in RF
Replace Campana's 93 with Dejesus' 100 in CF
Replace the LaHair/Baker combo at 1st (99 if we weight the PA's) with Rizzo, who will hopefully be able to put up at least a 100.

Thoughts?

#2 Drew

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 03:05 PM

:(

#3 OCCubFan

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 03:17 PM

My first thought is that I hope you have many more conference calls. This is good stuff and greatly appreciated.
Second, if we take a typical lineup---your list without Baker and Johnson---then the average over the 8 position players is about 99. So how come the Cubs are winning only one-third of their games?

#4 Luke

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 03:19 PM

I think wOBA is better for this sort of thing than OPS+ is. I've done some work on ways to normalize minor league performances across levels in a way that can make players more directly comparable using OPS+, but I think I'm going to switch the data over wOBA.

#5 hansman1982

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 03:43 PM

Wait, so you are saying Campana is not a succesful major league hitter? I was hyped for his callup but sadly, he is what we saw last year, a pinch-runner because he cannot get on base at a good enough clip.

#6 DocPeterWimsey

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 06:41 PM

Try plotting position adjusted OPS vs. position adjusted wOBA. I'd be interested to see if there are any outliers.
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#7 Drew

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 08:17 AM

My first thought is that I hope you have many more conference calls. This is good stuff and greatly appreciated.
Second, if we take a typical lineup---your list without Baker and Johnson---then the average over the 8 position players is about 99. So how come the Cubs are winning only one-third of their games?


Good question.

1st - League average takes into account back-ups as well. So, while the typical Cubs starting lineup appears to be average, it wouldnt if we were comparing it with starting lineups of other teams.

2nd - This is just 1/2 of the game. I havent looked, but I'd be pretty confident in saying that Cubs' pitching allows a higher than league average wOBA.

Those are the 2 reasons I can come up with. Coupled with a Pythagorian W-L showing they should have a handful of addditional wins, and you end up with the 2012 Cubs.

#8 Drew

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Posted 27 June 2012 - 08:37 AM

Try plotting position adjusted OPS vs. position adjusted wOBA. I'd be interested to see if there are any outliers.


I'd really have to re-run the OPS numbers to be sure, but a guess wouldnt hurt in the meantime. Since then, Soto has come off the DL and LaHair has been really bad, but other than that, I dont forsee that much of a difference as far as hot/cold streaks.
  • Barney showed the same number (101) with both.
  • Castro's wOBA is much lower (108) than his OPS+ (120) due to an abysmal OBP and being 8/16 in SB
  • Campana jumps considerably (72 to 93) mostly due to his SB's.
  • Soriano was pretty level (106 v 108), same with DeJesus (98 v 97)





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