36 replies to this topic

[Petrowsky]

First of all, do you think that the Cubs asking for Casey Crosby and Brian Flynn is too much to get for Dempster? Secondly, would you make that trade with the Tigers not knowing what you could get from any other team? I'm sure the Cubs would have to throw in Barney to make this at all possible, and this all hinges on the Tigers willing to take Barney when they are after Omar Infante.

[Crockett]

Personally, I think Crosby and Flynn is too little. Given how many teams are interested, etc the asking price should be higher. Crosby is a hard throwing kid who has had two major injuries to his elbow already. He reminds me a lot of Rich Hill, with a smidge more velocity. His curve is pretty good and his strikeout pitch.

If the best you can do is a kid like this, with a significant injury history, and realistic control issues, you've failed.

[Tommy]

I still hope we can get a top 100 prospect + something for Dempster. Thing with minor leaguers is that no matter how highly touted they are, they still haven't proven they can get it done at the major league level, so they should have to give up quite a bit for a known successful commodity. Many a first round draft pick has been a MLB bust (see Ian Stewart). I would hope that we get at least 1 top 100 prospect for Dempster, and at least another 1 for Garza, along with additional players. I wouldn't trade Garza otherwise personally, given his age and favorable contract status.

[Whiteflag]

What about Smyly, Flynn, Burgos? I like the idea of getting LHP in return.

[Crockett]

What about Smyly, Flynn, Burgos? I like the idea of getting LHP in return.

A) Welcome to the board.

I'd still say no. Smyly is a back end guy at best and the other two names are just non-starters. If you don't get at least one piece better than Smyly/Crosby, I believe you've failed.

[SlamminSammy]

I'd say that is an acceptable price, assuming Barney isn't included. Could you get more? Maybe, but I think we might have to settle for less than that as well.

Crosby is ranked as a B prospect by John Sickels. Dillon Maples, for comparison sake, is a B- prospect. He is also right where we need players from. Looks like he needs about half season more of AAA ball but then should be ready for the Cubs rotation. Flynn got a C+ and looks like hed go to Daytona or AA for the cubs and would give us a hardthrowing lefty starting prospect that we severely lack.

Cubs fans here seemed to be adamant about lowering our expectations for Rizzo, yet we have these ridiculously high expectations for what our trades will yield. Theo is good I'm sure but he doesnt naturally create value that isnt there. No matter how good we are at wheeling and dealing, Dempster is still just a rental player. A good rental player, but hes only going to realistically give his next team at most 15 starts. He will yield one or two solid prospects, but no one is giving away the farm for 15 starts.

[Crockett]

I'd say that is an acceptable price, assuming Barney isn't included. Could you get more? Maybe, but I think we might have to settle for less than that as well.

Crosby is ranked as a B prospect by John Sickels. Dillon Maples, for comparison sake, is a B- prospect. He is also right where we need players from. Looks like he needs about half season more of AAA ball but then should be ready for the Cubs rotation. Flynn got a C+ and looks like hed go to Daytona or AA for the cubs and would give us a hardthrowing lefty starting prospect that we severely lack.

Cubs fans here seemed to be adamant about lowering our expectations for Rizzo, yet we have these ridiculously high expectations for what our trades will yield. Theo is good I'm sure but he doesnt naturally create value that isnt there. No matter how good we are at wheeling and dealing, Dempster is still just a rental player. A good rental player, but hes only going to realistically give his next team at most 15 starts. He will yield one or two solid prospects, but no one is giving away the farm for 15 starts.

I'm not having ridiculously high expectations. If there are legitimately 10-12 teams in on Dempster, some team is going to go above "normal" market value for him...period. I think we will all be pleasantly surprised by what Dempster brings.

The other fact is that the Cubs payroll, after dealing Garza, etc will sit somewhere around 35m next year. Why would you trade your 2nd best tradeable asset for something you could purchase in FA for 3-5m a season when the money not close to an issue? You wouldn't.

If that kind of package is "the best you can do", you're MUCH more likely to spin Dempster to the team offering the most very young/high upside guys who are still very far away. 4/5 starters are a non-issue when you have somewhere between 50 and 75 million in payroll space.

[Whiteflag]

Thank you, I notice the message boards are more peaceful. I'll take your word for it on the prospects, but I don't think Dempster brings back Turner or Castellanos. Who is better than Cosby and Smyly that you think would be a possible return?

[Whiteflag]

I think Dempster will end up with the Dodgers over the Tigers anyway. I hope we land Lee from the dodgers.

[Crockett]

I think Dempster will end up with the Dodgers over the Tigers anyway. I hope we land Lee from the dodgers.

I think the Tigers are a terrible fit for the Cubs, in general. I think Dempster is much more likely to go to the Dodgers as they have the pitching prospects to make sense.

I am starting to almost believe in the Dempster/LaHair to the Dodgers and could see a Lee, Reed, and Gould return. Some team is going to "overpay" and I could see the new Dodgers ownership being that team. Since they now have an enormous financial backing, dealing away guys like Lee won't be as much of an issue.

[Petrowsky]

I think Dempster will end up with the Dodgers over the Tigers anyway. I hope we land Lee from the dodgers.

I think the Tigers are a terrible fit for the Cubs, in general. I think Dempster is much more likely to go to the Dodgers as they have the pitching prospects to make sense.

I am starting to almost believe in the Dempster/LaHair to the Dodgers and could see a Lee, Reed, and Gould return. Some team is going to "overpay" and I could see the new Dodgers ownership being that team. Since they now have an enormous financial backing, dealing away guys like Lee won't be as much of an issue.

I think Detroit is a perfectly acceptable trading partner for the Cubs. Saying they are a terrible fit is just not the case. The Cubs need starting pitching depth in their fram system. They especially need LH starting pitching depth. This happens to be an area of strength for the Tigers system. While Crosby has had some injury problems, he seems to be pitching well this year. Flynn is a towering LHP prospect with great velocity. Seems like the kind of guy Theo and Jed would like to obtain. As SlamminSammy pointed out, Dempster is just a rental that teams will get no compensation for at the end of the year. Getting two good starting pitching prospects seems to be a good place to start. Maybe the Cubs could get one more prospect but it would be someone way lower on the charts. I have seen some people say they would do Dempster straight up for Shelby Miller. I would rather have those two prospects over Miller any day.

[SlamminSammy]

I'd say that is an acceptable price, assuming Barney isn't included. Could you get more? Maybe, but I think we might have to settle for less than that as well.

Crosby is ranked as a B prospect by John Sickels. Dillon Maples, for comparison sake, is a B- prospect. He is also right where we need players from. Looks like he needs about half season more of AAA ball but then should be ready for the Cubs rotation. Flynn got a C+ and looks like hed go to Daytona or AA for the cubs and would give us a hardthrowing lefty starting prospect that we severely lack.

Cubs fans here seemed to be adamant about lowering our expectations for Rizzo, yet we have these ridiculously high expectations for what our trades will yield. Theo is good I'm sure but he doesnt naturally create value that isnt there. No matter how good we are at wheeling and dealing, Dempster is still just a rental player. A good rental player, but hes only going to realistically give his next team at most 15 starts. He will yield one or two solid prospects, but no one is giving away the farm for 15 starts.

I'm not having ridiculously high expectations. If there are legitimately 10-12 teams in on Dempster, some team is going to go above "normal" market value for him...period. I think we will all be pleasantly surprised by what Dempster brings.

The other fact is that the Cubs payroll, after dealing Garza, etc will sit somewhere around 35m next year. Why would you trade your 2nd best tradeable asset for something you could purchase in FA for 3-5m a season when the money not close to an issue? You wouldn't.

If that kind of package is "the best you can do", you're MUCH more likely to spin Dempster to the team offering the most very young/high upside guys who are still very far away. 4/5 starters are a non-issue when you have somewhere between 50 and 75 million in payroll space.

It's not an issue of getting 4/5 starters. Its about getting a cheap 4/5 starter for next year which can develop into a possible 2 starter. As much as I like Maholm, I would much rather have the 4/5 spots taken by young kids that can develop into frontline starters than 3-5 million veterans. Thats what Sickels thinks Crosby can be. I don't follow prospects closely so I rely on what the experts say and this one says that he could be a legitimate number 2 guy. You cant purchase six years of a cost controlled lefty starter with top of the rotation potential for 3-5 million. Add in the lower level prospect of Lynn who is a hard throwing lefty so clearly the upside is there and that is exactly the kind of deal you want.

There is no solid evidence that people will overpay. just because 10 teams may be interested doesnt mean they will all pay up anything close. For example the white sox are suitors and they dont have the prospects to pay. Until we start seeing some deals for rentals happening we dont know what teams are actually willing to pay all we have is posturing.

As for the Dodgers, just because teams get rich doesnt mean they abandon the farm system. Look at the Rangers, they have one of the best farms in the game, yet they are huge players on any big free agent right now. I dont think they would be willing to give away a potential 2 and two potential 3s for a year of dempster and a guy who cant play against lefties. Take out Reed and I think that might be a possibility, but the dodgers are not looking to unload Lee just because they have money now.

[Crockett]

Okay, there are a few things to comment on here, so i'll number them.

1) Stop reading what John Sickels says. He's consistently in the minority on players. If you want to read an "expert", start with Keith Law or Kevin Goldstein. Sickels is very much alone in the thinking either Smyly or Crosby could be a #2. 4/5 starter is their ceiling to everyone else. My point was that if you're acquiring guys with ceilings of 4/5, you're failing. I stand by that opinion and by the reality that the general consensus is much lower than what Sickels' is saying.

2) I wasn't saying they were looking to ditch Lee. What I am saying is that they now have the ability to sign a Hamels or Greinke this offseason (provided they make it to FA) when before they did not. That would make the loss of Lee much more tolerable, especially since he's doing well, not spectacularly in the minors.

3) To Petrowsky: Please state again which two prospects you'd rather have than Shelby Miller? If it's Smyly/Crosby, you need some reasoning to back that up, because even with Miller's stock being down a bit, you might be the only person on the planet who would have that preference.

[SlamminSammy]

Perhaps you're right about Sickels but I'm not about to pay money to read scouting reports, so although he may not be as good as the other two guys, I'll form my opinion on what he says since he has seen these guys more than anyone here. Perhaps there is a way to analyze how often theyve actually been right, but that would seem nearly impossible and still debatable. Just because he disagrees with Goldstein and Law isnt a reason I should disregard his opinion I mean havent you seen Minority Report lol. I would agree with you that getting one 4/5 starter isnt enough and Id rather have a lower level prospect but, for all we know, Theo and Jed see Crosby as a possible no. 2 and I'm certain I trust their ability to scout talent.

As for Lee, it depends on how highly he is regarded by the dodgers. If hes a surefire 2 or higher in their eyes, thats untouchable to me because a team can never have enough high end starting pitchers.

The problem with all this speculation is we have no clue how these GMs view these different prospects. For all we know the Cubs FO have multiple scouts saying completely different things and its a matter of who is more likely to be correct. Combine that with butting heads with the GMs theyd be negotiating with and there are too many factors to count.

[Petrowsky]

Okay, there are a few things to comment on here, so i'll number them.



3) To Petrowsky: Please state again which two prospects you'd rather have than Shelby Miller? If it's Smyly/Crosby, you need some reasoning to back that up, because even with Miller's stock being down a bit, you might be the only person on the planet who would have that preference.

I don't need to restate it because it's in the text in this very thread. You do not have a crystal ball nor does anybody on this planet. No one knows what Shelby Miller will become. Yes, he was ranked extremely high as a prospect last year. That doesn't mean he will become a stud starter. With the position the Cubs are in they need to stockpile pitching prospects to gaurantee that a few will pan out and reach their potential. I would rather receive two prospects with upside than one guy who may or may not be a stud. The last pitcher in the Cardinals system to win pitcher of the year two years running was Rick Ankiel. Anything can happen. With the state of the Cubs' system they need to get as many guys with potential, and not just trade away assests for one guy who has stud stuff. If the Cubs had a couple of prospects who were close to contributing at the major league level then you absolutely make the deal for a guy like Miller. If he doesn't pan out then you still have some other guys to fall back on. The Cubs do not have this luxury. You can have your own opinion. Your ideas could be more succesful than mine or vice versa. Neither of us are FO personnel for a reason.