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B. Jax vs. Drew Stubbs

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#1 J.F.Edwards


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Posted 01 August 2012 - 11:55 PM

Compare what BJax has done in ~400 Minor League ABs: http://www.baseball-...id=jackso003bre

To what D. Stubbs did in ~400 Minor League ABs: http://www.baseball-...id=stubbs001and

Their minor league slashes show Stubbs (.268/.363./399) was just a little behind Jackson's pace (.282/.369/.488).

You could say the difference is power (Stubbs 28 HR, Jax 55) vs. speed (Stubbs: 121 SB, to Jax 89) but Jax also has an astounding 33 triples, while Stubbs had just 16.

Sure, Jackson has struck out a lot: 472 times in 1790 PAs (26.3% K rate). But he's also walked 220 times.
In the minors Stubbs struck out 435 times in 1858 PAs (23.4% K rate). He walked 222 times.

What about defense? While not great statistical measures, Stubbs committed 16 errors in 417 minor league games (.985 fldg). Jax has commited 15 errors in 376 games (.982 fldg).

Both were about the same age, with B.Jax starting at age 20, and playing in his fourth year (398 games) at 23.

Stubbs started at 21 and played for four years in the minors (426 games), reaching the majors in 2009 for 40 games at the age of 24. (During that 40-game cup of coffee he hit 8 homeruns, stole 10 bases and struck out 50 times.)

Across the past four seasons in the big leagues Stubbs has averaged 22 HRs, 38 SBs, and .a 240/.328/.405 slash, plus 193(!) strikeouts.

Two questions:

1. Is Drew Stubb's ML career a reasonable projection for Brett Jackson?

2. Will B. Jax exceed/meet/or underperform Stubb's ML numbers?
"You may run like Mayes but you hit like shit."

#2 Myles


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Posted 02 August 2012 - 08:02 AM

It's a pretty good comp, but keep in mind the major issue with Jackson is that is K% is INCREASING as he ascends, where Stubbs essentially stayed the same. You just can't strike out 35% of the time and provide much offensive value unless your BABIP is insanely good.

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