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0.1 Percent Chance Theo Epstein was NOT Spotted at Chicago Starbucks
Posted 09 October 2011 - 06:59 PM
So borrowing a bit of what the great Nate Silver and the other guys at Baseball Prospectus do, let's look at other variables to consider: Does Mr.Pinzur really know what Theo Epstein looks like? Why wasn't Mr. Epstein wearing a "Michael Jackson-like" disguise like many other high profile celebrities do? Has Mr. Epstein ever been cloned? Could it have been his twin brother Larry P. Epstein? Has Mr. Epstein actually been killed in a car crash and replaced by a look-a-like android a la Paul MacCartney? Why would he be buying his own coffee, wouldn't one of his servants, or his wife do this? Is this the same Noah Pinzur that once spotted Jim Hendry at a Dunkin Donuts? How come there have been no other sightings?( there were probably two sasquatch sightings this weekend, but how come only one guy saw someone who the whole city( yes a bit of an exaggeration) has been looking for)
My conclusion after considering all of these factors: Mr. Pinzurs 99.9 percent assertion is probably closer to a 99.125. That leaves
us at a 0.875 chance that it was NOT him.
As a Cub fan, those odds are a bit too risky for me.
Posted 10 October 2011 - 08:16 AM
On a serious note, would anyone in Chicago be mistaken for Theo Epstein "all the time"? Short of baseball fanatics, no one in the city could have picked him out of a lineup before last week. I doubt such a lookalike would "get it all the time."
Suggests - just a little bit more - that it was actually Epstein. That, of course, assumes Pinzur's recollection of everything was accurate.
Posted 10 October 2011 - 09:04 AM
I saw Philoe drinking a cup of coffee with a Theo look alike at Tim Horton here in Michigan.
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