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0.1 Percent Chance Theo Epstein was NOT Spotted at Chicago Starbucks


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6 replies to this topic

#1 Oswego Chris

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Posted 09 October 2011 - 06:59 PM

Mr. Noah Pinzur of Lakeview is "99.9 percent" sure he spotted Theo Epstein at a Chicago Starbucks yesterday. This obviously means that there is a 0.1 percent chance it was not him. I would like to remind everyone that according to Baseball Prospectus the Red Sox had a 0.3 percent chance of NOT making the play-offs on September 1st, and we know how that turned out! So before we start seeing Theo at other over-priced coffee establishments, last night's Hawks game, or at the Shedd Aquarium, keep in mind that it may not have been him.

So borrowing a bit of what the great Nate Silver and the other guys at Baseball Prospectus do, let's look at other variables to consider: Does Mr.Pinzur really know what Theo Epstein looks like? Why wasn't Mr. Epstein wearing a "Michael Jackson-like" disguise like many other high profile celebrities do? Has Mr. Epstein ever been cloned? Could it have been his twin brother Larry P. Epstein? Has Mr. Epstein actually been killed in a car crash and replaced by a look-a-like android a la Paul MacCartney? Why would he be buying his own coffee, wouldn't one of his servants, or his wife do this? Is this the same Noah Pinzur that once spotted Jim Hendry at a Dunkin Donuts? How come there have been no other sightings?( there were probably two sasquatch sightings this weekend, but how come only one guy saw someone who the whole city( yes a bit of an exaggeration) has been looking for)

My conclusion after considering all of these factors: Mr. Pinzurs 99.9 percent assertion is probably closer to a 99.125. That leaves
us at a 0.875 chance that it was NOT him.

As a Cub fan, those odds are a bit too risky for me.

#2 Dave

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Posted 09 October 2011 - 07:39 PM

Theo knows how to disguise himself, I'm sure we all recall the stories of him leaving Fenway in a gorilla costume when he resigned from the Red Sox in '05.

#3 Brett

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Posted 10 October 2011 - 08:16 AM

You kill me, pb.

On a serious note, would anyone in Chicago be mistaken for Theo Epstein "all the time"? Short of baseball fanatics, no one in the city could have picked him out of a lineup before last week. I doubt such a lookalike would "get it all the time."

Suggests - just a little bit more - that it was actually Epstein. That, of course, assumes Pinzur's recollection of everything was accurate.

#4 MichiganGoat

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Posted 10 October 2011 - 09:04 AM

There is a .01% chance that Philoe is actually Theo since he obviously understands advanced statistics.

I saw Philoe drinking a cup of coffee with a Theo look alike at Tim Horton here in Michigan.

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#5 amoo22

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Posted 10 October 2011 - 01:31 PM

my mind just got blown. but seriously, why wasnt his wife getting the coffee, if it really was him

#6 hansman1982

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Posted 10 October 2011 - 08:16 PM

Ya well I got Pink Eye on Saturday...that is all.

#7 Brett

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Posted 11 October 2011 - 04:59 AM

Ya well I got Pink Eye on Saturday...that is all.

Gotta stop eating farts.




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