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Offseason Predictions?

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#1 Rated Rookie

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Posted 07 September 2012 - 11:18 AM

Of the somewhat realistic-ish variety?

Let's see:

Current 40 Man: Those sure to be removed slashed, likely removed in italics. Keep in mind, those on 60 day DL take a spot as well.


L. Castillo
Garza (60 day)
Mateo (60 Day)
Vizcaino (60 Day)

W. Castillo

Stewart (60 Day)


Rule 5 Eligible Prospects: Those I fully expect rostered are Bolded. Possibll rostered, italics:

Jeffry Antigua, LHP
Justin Bour, 1B
Michael Brenly, C
Michael Burgess, OF
David Cales, RHP
Esmailin Caridad, RHP
Matt Cerda, INF
Evan Crawford, OF
Willengton Cruz, LHP
Antonio Encarnacion, RHP
Eduardo Figueroa, RHP
Luis Flores, C
Ramon Garcia, RHP
Gregori Gonzalez, IF-OF
Marcus Hatley, RHP
Ty’Relle Harris, RHP
Graham Hicks, LHP
Jay Jackson, RHP
Alvido Jimenez, RHP
Richard Jones, 1B
Austin Kirk, LHP
Luis Liria, RHP
Jeff Lorick, LHP
David Macias, IF-OF (player-coach)
Nate Maldonado, C (player-coach)
Trey McNutt, RHP
Pedro Medina, RHP (ex-OF)
Jose Montesino, INF
A. J. Morris, RHP
Enyelberth Pena, RHP
Felix Pena, RHP
Starling Peralta, RHP
Nelson Perez, OF
Roderik Pichardo, RHP
Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP
Rebel Ridling, 1B-OF
Greg Rohan, IF-OF
Melvin Rosa, RHP
Jose Rosario, RHP
Zac Rosscup, LHP
Julio Sanchez, RHP
Brian Schlitter, RHP
Ryan Searle, RHP
Matt Spencer, LHP (ex-OF)
Nick Struck, RHP
Larry Suarez, RHP
Charles Thomas, RHP (ex-3B)
Francisco Turbi, RHP
Brett Wallach, RHP
Logan Watkins, INF
Casey Weathers, RHP
Rob Whitenack, RHP
Ty Wright, OF

McNutt is really the only guarantee to be rostered. Watkins is close, but then again, I felt that way about Flaherty last year, so who knows. Struck certainly should be, as anything reswembling a big league redy starter should be kept. Hatley's a good relief prospect. Whitenack and Peralta are two guys that I really can't see a team keeping on the big league roster for an entire season, but I really don't want to risk losing them. I also like Antigua, but I don't see him rostered, especially after the mysterious demotion to Peoria.

There are other interesting options, such as Caridad, Burgess, Searle, Cales, and Harris, but none of them are really worth rostering, and if another team wants them, more power to them.

So with protected Rule 5 candiidates, 60 Day DLers reinstated, and those removed from the roster who are goners, here's my predicted pre trade/FA 40 man:


1. Garza
2. Shark
3. Wood
4. Volstad
5. Raley
6. Struck
7. Marmol
8. Cabrera
9. Bowden
10. Parker
11. Vizcaino
12. Dolis
13. Hatley
14. Russell
15. Concepcion (I think it's in his contract)
16. McNutt
17. Whitenack
18. Peralta

19. W. Castillo
20. Clevenger
21. Recker (or another 3rd C: or not)

22. Barney
23. Castro
24. Rizzo
25. Valbuena
26. Stewart
27. Vitters
28. Watkins

29. Soriano
30. DeJesus
31. Jackson
32. Campana
33. Sappelt
34. Szczur (in contract)
35. Soler (in contract?)

That's 35 spots.
Other possible options are Mateo, LaHair, Cardenas, Chapman, and Brigham. Obviously, we need space for additions, and there will be trades:

Oakland would be an interesting trade partner. They need infield help. They have plenty of young pitching. Brad Peacock has had a rough AAA season. Is Vitters or Lake straight up for Peacock something that could happen?

Soriano or DeJesus could be targets for Tampa bay, who also has no shortage of young pitching. With Upton likely gone, DeJesus, who's owed 3.5 MM in 2013, with a 6.5 MM 2014 team option could appeal to them as a replacement, Could we get Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann, both former top prospects for him? they currently have Price, Hellickson, Moore, Cobb, Archer, and for now, Shields.

Garza could be a very tough sell at this point, and it mighjt be in our interest to keep him anyway. Either Wood or VOlstad could/should be traded as well. Wood might have more value to us, but would generate a better return.

And then there's Marmol. I'll hold off on him for now.

And then there's free agency. 3 interesting options: Delmon Young, BJ Upton, and Melky Cabrera, who may have gone from a 5+ year deal to a 1 year with incentives. Upton really intrigues me. I'd be interested in any of the 3.

Knowing Theo and jed, there are ountless reclamation sighnings and minor trades that could be made, but a realistic 2013 opening day 40 man could be (no particular order):

1. Garza
2. Shark
3. Wood or Volstad
4. Mateo
5. Peacock
6. Beliveau
7. Niemann/W. Davis
8. Struck
9. Raley
10. Vizcaino
11. Concepcion
12. Marmol
13. Dolis
14. Bowden
15. Hatley
16. Russell
17. McNutt
18. Whitenack
19. Peralta
20. Parker

21. Castillo
22. Clevenger

23. Barney
24. Castro
25. Stewart
26. Vitters/Lake
27. Valbuena
28. Watkins
29. Rizzo

30. Soriano
31. Jackson
32. Sappelt
33. Szczur
34. Soler
35. Campana
36. Young/Upton/Melky

With the opening day roster bolded

1. Jackson CF
2. Castro SS
3. Rizzo 1B
4. Soriano LF
5. Cabrera/Upton/Young RF
6. Stewart 3B
7. Castillo C
8. Barney 2B
9. SP: Garza
SP: Shark
SP: Davis/Niemann
SP: Peacock
SP: Wood/Volstad
CL: Marmol
BP: Beliveau
BP: Russell
BP: Dolis
BP: Hatley
BP: Cabrera
BP: Bowden/Parker
C: Clevenger
UT: Watkins
UT: Valbuena
OF: Campana
OF: Sappelt


#2 Cubsin


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Posted 08 September 2012 - 10:19 AM

I don't think there's any possibility that Lendy Castillo is left off the 40-man roster after all the pain of keeping him around all season. If they were going to pull the trigger on him, he'd already be gone,

I've also read a local newspaper report regarding Ben Wells' signing that stated his contract guaranteed him a roster spot this winter. It's possible (probable?) that the writer was misinformed, and all he was guaranteed was an invitation to Spring Training next year.

#3 Rated Rookie

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Posted 12 September 2012 - 07:59 PM

The thing abut Rule 5s is that after that 1st year, you don't have to keep them on the active roster. At that point, you can treat him as anyone else on the 40 man, or else DFA him, which will give other teams the chance to claim him, and if not, assign him to the minors. Lest we forget that albino fellow we Rule 5d a few years back and did the same with. Can't remember his name, but he had a great spring training, and was awful the rest of the way.

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