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September and the LDS


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16 replies to this topic

#16 DocPeterWimsey

DocPeterWimsey

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 03:07 PM

Well, the haplessness of -RD September teams continues: but in perhaps the least probable way possible! At this point, it looks like the 3 of 4 rule is going to predict 2 or 3 of the 4. Of course, this season has had the smallest spread of run-differentials: the A's & Tigers are separated by 1 and the Nats & Cards by 3; really, that's got to be about equal. (Unfortunately, 45 series are not enough to get at that, if only because we've actually had only six series where the two teams were within 5 up to this point.)
Gods don't play dice with the universe, they are the dice of the universe: our job is to figure out how many sides and dice!

#17 DocPeterWimsey

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 07:23 AM

well, that's a wrap. Here is how it broke down:

RD Series
+29 Giants over Reds
+12 Yanks over O's
-1 Tigers overs A's
-3 Cards over Nats

From a coin-flipping perspective, September RD got 2 of 4 right: i.e., no different from pot-luck! Of course, we expect 21% of the time: over the last 12 years there should have been 2 or 3 post-season like this, and we now have 2.

0: 1 (0.0)
1: 0 (0.6)
2: 2 (2.5)
3: 6 (5.1)
4: 3 (3.8)

(Actual coin-flipping should get 2 of 4 right 38% of the time; we should have 4 or 5 post-seasons like this).

From a "t-test" point of view, it is pretty lop-sided: the winning teams had a pooled run differential of 37 greater than the losers. The maximum possible was only 45: the simple fact is that the A's-Tigers and Cards-Nats series were between two teams that had extremely similar Septembers.

My suspicion is that with enough data (albeit perhaps more than I'll live to accumulate!) we would find that teams within 5-10 runs are basically the same, and that the split will really emerge for series like the Giants-Reds and Yanks-O's.
Gods don't play dice with the universe, they are the dice of the universe: our job is to figure out how many sides and dice!




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