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September and the LDS
Posted 11 October 2012 - 03:07 PM
Posted 13 October 2012 - 07:23 AM
+29 Giants over Reds
+12 Yanks over O's
-1 Tigers overs A's
-3 Cards over Nats
From a coin-flipping perspective, September RD got 2 of 4 right: i.e., no different from pot-luck! Of course, we expect 21% of the time: over the last 12 years there should have been 2 or 3 post-season like this, and we now have 2.
0: 1 (0.0)
1: 0 (0.6)
2: 2 (2.5)
3: 6 (5.1)
4: 3 (3.8)
(Actual coin-flipping should get 2 of 4 right 38% of the time; we should have 4 or 5 post-seasons like this).
From a "t-test" point of view, it is pretty lop-sided: the winning teams had a pooled run differential of 37 greater than the losers. The maximum possible was only 45: the simple fact is that the A's-Tigers and Cards-Nats series were between two teams that had extremely similar Septembers.
My suspicion is that with enough data (albeit perhaps more than I'll live to accumulate!) we would find that teams within 5-10 runs are basically the same, and that the split will really emerge for series like the Giants-Reds and Yanks-O's.
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