29 replies to this topic

[Luke]

Raley, Rusin, Jokisch, Kirk, Rosscup and Burke just aren't all that exciting.

I guess it depends on what you mean by exciting. Jokisch isn't going to be the next Randy Johnson by any means, but I could see him having similar success to Paul Maholm.

[Stinky Pete]

6. Lendy Castillo

I'd like to watch Lendy... get on a bus and head out of town.

I'll admit that I didn't see too many games this year, but I listened to probably 100 of them. Why was he worth his place on the 40? I ask in all genuineness, 'cause it sure seemed like he suuuuuuuuuuuucked this season. A WHIP > 2.0? Barf.

Johan Santana posted a 1.8 WHIP his first year. Not saying Castillo's career will parallel Santana's. Just that the first year can get pretty ugly but the career can turn out okay.

[TWC]

Thanks all. I appreciate the feedback. I've been curious about him for months.

[fromthemitten]

It's too early to think that it's a foregone conclusion that they draft a pitcher with the #1 pick. I'm personally hoping they take the "best player available" approach if somebody puts forth a superlative performance. My hunch is that Houston's going to once again draft a player that's easy to sign, giving the Cubs an opportunity to get the best player on the boards. If he's blocked at the major league level he could always be flipped for a frontline pitcher on the trade market

[Tommy]

Luke/Cubsin - what is your opinion on P.J. Francescon? I thought he was our best pitcher when he was in Peoria.

[Cubsin]

Francescon was 23 last season, which is kind of old for Low A. He also pitched fairly well for Daytona. But a 5'11" RHP drafted in the 40th round has extremely long odds against him.

I'll be surprised, but not necessarily shocked, if the Cubs selected a hitter rather than a pitcher. There would need to be a strong consensus among the scouts and front office guys that the hitter was the "best prospect avaiable."

I'll also be surprised if the Cubs don't take at least one high-upside pitcher in the Rule 5 draft.

[JCubs79]

Francescon was 23 last season, which is kind of old for Low A. He also pitched fairly well for Daytona. But a 5'11" RHP drafted in the 40th round has extremely long odds against him.

I'll be surprised, but not necessarily shocked, if the Cubs selected a hitter rather than a pitcher. There would need to be a strong consensus among the scouts and front office guys that the hitter was the "best prospect avaiable."

I'll also be surprised if the Cubs don't take at least one high-upside pitcher in the Rule 5 draft.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs went with the strategy they did this year. Position player in the first, and then a quantity of pitchers for the rest of the rounds. The attrition rates of pitchers are much higher then position players so unless one of the 3 college pitchers establishes themselves in the eyes of the FO as a future ace then I could see them going best positional player.

I right now believe that the Cubs will look at one of the 3 college pitchers but guys like Frazier, Meadows and Wilson could all make a case to be worthy of the #2 pick.

Just something to think about even though it is very early.

[Cubsin]

While the Cubs don't have any OF's penciled in for Opening Day who are likely to be part of the long-range plan, they could add one (or two, if Soriano is traded) this winter. BJax will probably be back in mid-2013, Szczur and Ha in mid-2014, Soler in late 2014 or early 2015, then Almora sometime in 2015. There's also a chance Lake and/or Candelario might move to the outfield. It's hard to see a HS OF drafted in 2013 arriving before 2016, or a college guy arriving before 2015. So it would take an OF prospect who's clearly better than all of the college pitchers at the top of the current rankings to interest the Cubs.

Without knowing what the Astros will do or what will occur before draft day, I'd rate the probablilities as 80% college SP, 10% HS or college C, 5% HS pitcher, 5% other (OF, SS, 3B).

[JCubs79]

While the Cubs don't have any OF's penciled in for Opening Day who are likely to be part of the long-range plan, they could add one (or two, if Soriano is traded) this winter. BJax will probably be back in mid-2013, Szczur and Ha in mid-2014, Soler in late 2014 or early 2015, then Almora sometime in 2015. There's also a chance Lake and/or Candelario might move to the outfield. It's hard to see a HS OF drafted in 2013 arriving before 2016, or a college guy arriving before 2015. So it would take an OF prospect who's clearly better than all of the college pitchers at the top of the current rankings to interest the Cubs.

Without knowing what the Astros will do or what will occur before draft day, I'd rate the probablilities as 80% college SP, 10% HS or college C, 5% HS pitcher, 5% other (OF, SS, 3B).

I do agree with you about the likelihood of us taking a college pitcher. Just making the argument that it wouldn't be surprising to see a position player taken. Personally, I want Manaea or Stanek right now, but I do see the value in going quantity of pitchers and buying established pitching through trades and FA. Personally, I tend to lean toward the idea that you develop position players and buy pitching but the with the way our current farm system is with pitching depth right now we need a system changing TORP to add to it.

[ced landrum]

Lendy Castillo is intriguing in some ways but no more so then Rafel Dolis and Alberto Cabrera. I don't know if they weren't included because you view them as Major leaguers, but I wouldn't rate Castillo any higher unless he becomes a starter.

[Cubsin]

I agree that Castillo, Dolis and Cabrera all have similar stuff. I didn't include Dolis and Cabrera since I consider them major leaguers, not prospects. But it's important to note that Dolis and Cabrera began pitching in pro ball in 2006, while Lendy started in 2010. Lendy's minor league record (7-4, 2.20 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.14 K/9 in 131 IP) suggests he has a chance to become a major league pitcher, perhaps even a starting pitcher.

[Luke]

Castillo's stuff strongly suggests his career in the bullpen. He needs a better third pitch before we can start seriously considering him a starter candidate.

Francescon is in the mix of Cubs mid-rotation potential starting pitching prospects, but he needs to main his success at Double A before I get too excited.

[Cubsin]

Luke, correct me if I'm wrong (a common occurance), but doesn't Lendy now have three option years left? That should give him enough time to refine his fastball and breaking ball and develop a change-up. I expect him to wind up in the bullpen if he ever sees the big leagues again, but I think he still has a chance to become a starting pitcher.

[Luke]

I believe you're right. You're definitely right in principle if not in the details. He should have more than enough time to develop. I still see him as an 8th / 9th inning guy rather than a starter, but adding him to a rotation certainly isn't impossible one day.

[Mike Taylor (no relation)]

If they want him to be a starter, he is a long way away. Being young and put into stressful situations at the major league level didn't help his development. Someone gave a major-league stat of 2+ Whip or something... of course, he's not going to succeed when he belongs in A ball.